Welcome to Week 11 of the 2020 Footballguys' Roundtable. Our intrepid and oddball panel of fantasy pundits discuss and debate the best and worst NFL games for fantasy in Week 13, preemptive playoff stashes, and reflect on how they'd draft if they knew what they know now about the 2020 season.
- Preemptive Playoff Stashes
- Best Fantasy Game in NFL for Week 13
- Worst Fantasy Game in NFL for Week 13
- Fantasy Time Machine
Let's roll...
Preemptive Playoff Stashes
Matt Waldman: Name a player you believe has a shot of becoming a worthwhile playoff contributor that you should preemptively stash. You cannot name a player who fits one of the factors below:
- Top 15 QB
- Top 36 RB
- Top 48 WR
- Top 15 TE
Jeff Haseley: Michael Pittman...
Maurile Tremblay: Pittman is a great choice for a playoff stash. He's clearly become the Colts' WR1, in my opinion, leading the team in targets since Week 7's bye.
Haseley. He has a good schedule, too, Maurile. The Colts have games at Houston, at Las Vegas, and Houston again in Weeks 13, 14, and 15. Michael Pittman continues to lead all Colts wide receivers in snaps since he returned from a calf injury in Week 8, and he leads all Colts players in targets since Week 9.
He is WR29 in PPR since Week 9 and has more fantasy points in that range than Tyler Lockett, Tee Higgins, Cooper Kupp, and CeeDee Lamb. I already mentioned the favorable schedule, but it gets even better.
Both the Texans and Raiders are dealing with injuries (or in Houston's case, suspensions) at the cornerback position. Texans CB Bradley Roby has been suspended six games by the league for performance-enhancing drugs and Las Vegas has injuries to both corners, Damon Arnette and Trayvon Mullen.
The Colts are in the middle of a playoff push with a favorable next stretch of three games which is a great time for Pittman to continue to show why the Colts selected him in the second round of the 20202 NFL Draft.
Adam Harstad: You didn't ask about kickers, but...
Waldman: I don't care about your kickers. But, readers probably will so please share.
Harstad: Jason Myers has been the No.2 fantasy kicker since his bye and his next three games are against the Giants, Jets, and Football Team. Despite this, he's only on 21.1 percent of NFL.com fantasy league rosters, which ranks 20th at the position.
Why is that? Because prior to his bye the Seahawks had a ludicrous TD-to-FG split that depressed Myers' scoring (he attempted 21 extra points against just two field goals), which means any time anyone has sorted the available kickers by "points scored to date", Myers has never been near the top of the list.
But if your league uses kickers, he's a Top 5 option going forward who is probably available for free.
Waldman: You redeemed yourself with Seahawks talk.
Harstad: I'm unredeemable.
Jason Wood: No truer words have ever been admitted by an individual on our staff.
Waldman: The lovefest continues.
Jeff Pasquino: While I like the call of Pittman, I'm going to lean towards a tailback. Raheem Mostert is probably not available, but Myles Gaskin could be.
He should return to action this week and has a good playoff schedule:
- Week 14 vs Kansas City
- Week 15 vs New England
- Week 16 at Las Vegas
These are all positive strength of schedule matchups. All three teams have given up plenty of touchdowns to tailbacks, including Kanas City in Week 8, New England in Week 10, and Las Vegas in Week 14. Gaskin's definitely worthy of a fantasy start, especially in PPR leagues, down the stretch.
Wood: Two weeks ago, I would've laughed at the idea of touting Taysom Hill.
Waldman: "I would have laughed at the idea of..." should be the phrase carved into your tombstone, bud.
Harstad: Burn...
Wood: Who says 'Burn," anymore?
Harstad: It is what it is, "I would have laughed at the idea of,"
Wood: Anyway, back to what I was saying. But let's be honest, he's kryptonite for other Saints players but has gotten it done in the same way Tim Tebow did. Minimal passing yardage but a force on the ground. With the Eagles, Chiefs, and Vikings looming in Weeks 14-16, Hill could easily continue his current Top-10 pace.
But let's be honest, he's kryptonite for other Saints players but has gotten it done in the same way Tim Tebow did. Minimal passing yardage but a force on the ground. With the Eagles, Chiefs, and Vikings looming in Weeks 14-16, Hill could easily continue his current Top-10 pace.
At running back, I see quite a few players currently outside the Top 36 who I expect will be much better over the rest of the season. For my money, give me Austin Ekeler (RB41), Christian McCaffrey (RB38), Wayne Gallman (RB37), Raheem Mostert (RB45) should all have strong year-end finishes. But none are likely available as staff on free agency, so I'll instead recommend Cam Akers who is outside the top 60 and has been dropped in a majority of leagues, but the Rams finally appear ready to give the rookie a chance at the lead job.
At wide receiver, Deebo Samuel, Gabriel Davis, and Allen Lazard are all viable candidates.
Waldman: Yuck, Wood, I hate that you mentioned Akers. The dude runs with a broken compass locked in one position that's preset before each play. He doesn't understand what he's doing out there, but the Rams are hellbent on giving him every chance to figure it out on the field at the expense of production by two superior running backs in terms of understanding blocking schemes.
However, you're right to mention him as a potential fantasy commodity because fantasy value and top football skill aren't mutually inclusive qualities. If anything, a glaring lack of skill in a particular leads to greater fantasy volatility over the course of time because teams figure out or finally admit to themselves that they're heading down the wrong path with the player whose skill is lacking enough in some way to become a liability.
Will Grant: While Christian McCaffrey technically qualifies for this, I doubt he's available in any league for pick-up or trade. However, J.K. Dobbins is, and I think he's going to be a solid pick for the fantasy playoffs. Dobbins is averaging over five yards per carry, and the Ravens have a super-soft fantasy playoff schedule.
After their game this week against Pittsburgh, they face Dallas, Cleveland, Jacksonville, New York Giants, and the Bengals if you have a week 17 game. Given the fact that the Steelers are in the driver's seat to win the division, the Ravens are going to need to win all of these games, and Dobbins should score a ton of fantasy points against those soft teams.
Andy Hicks: Wayne Gallman just ticks this box. I don’t think he is going to be available in many leagues, but neither should Taysom Hill, Cam Akers, and Michael Pittman. The Giants don’t have the best schedule running home with Seattle, Arizona, Cleveland and Baltimore left, but with Colt McCoy possibly under center, they will run the ball where they can and attempt to continue Gallman’s impressive streak of a touchdown in five consecutive games.
Waldman: Props, Andy, for naming Burton. He looks as promising as he was as an Eagles' reserve before an injury-ridden stint in Chicago. And, the Colts told the media that they intended to make Burton a bigger part of the offense 3-4 weeks ago.
Tremblay: I'll name two more in the same genre as Jeff's good call on Pittman. The Jets' Denzel Mims and the Eagles' Jalen Reagor are, like Pittman, both rookies who missed time early in the season but who've made a good case over the past 4-5 weeks that they are already, as of right now, their respective teams' top wide receivers.
Mims returned in Week 7 and has averaged just under 7 targets a game since then. Reagor returned in Week 8 and has averaged just over 6 targets a game since then. They are both on the upswing with the potential to become decent fantasy starters, at least in the flex position, down the stretch.
Waldman: I would also recommend Mims, Maurile. This week's Gut Check at Footballguys is a feature on Mims' skills and potential stretch-run production. Here's a short video from the article if you're interested.
Harstad: Rookies as a group (at all positions across all seasons) tend to score more fantasy points in the second half of the year than in the first. Of course, this is a trend in the aggregate and won’t always be the case in individual instances (that’s an ecological fallacy, yo). But I think especially as a tiebreaker a heuristic like placing free bets on rookie breakouts over the second half of the year is very useful.
We certainly saw it last year when Miles Sanders was RB26 over the first nine weeks and RB12 over the last eight. A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel, and Darius Slayton were WR41, WR72, and WR67 over the first half of the year and WR7, WR9, and WR18 over the second half. Etc.
Best NFL Games for Fantasy in Week 13
Waldman: Share that match up and answer the following:
- Give me a less obvious option worth starting who might be on your bench or waiver wire who might outperform a lot of fantasy starters you might consider.
- Give me an obvious starter who might underperform in this game and you would consider benching.
Haseley: The Jets-Raiders game is the best for me. The Jets are 0-11 heading along a path that may land them the top pick in the NFL Draft. Their team has holes everywhere, but they are facing a Raiders team that is moving in the wrong direction.
Defensively, the Raiders have been gashed, losing to Atlanta 43-6 where two of their cornerbacks left the game due to injury. The Jets have Sam Darnold back in the fold, who is capable of exploiting a weakness. If the Jets have a strength, it's their wide receivers, led by Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, and rookie Denzel Mims. I wouldn't be too surprised to see one or two of these names have decent production this week.
On the other side of the coin, the Raiders also have a favorable matchup in the passing and rushing game. Josh Jacobs is dealing with an ankle injury which opens the door for Devontae Booker who has three touchdowns in the last four games.
The Raiders' offensive line is one of the best in the league. If they can find early success running the ball, it can be sustained throughout the game. The biggest beneficiary is Booker. Teams who rostered Booker either as a handcuff to Jacobs or not should be licking their chops this week.
As for an underperformer in this game, I'd lean towards any Jets running back simply because I believe they will be trying to exploit the weak Raiders secondary. Frank Gore has produced decent yardage numbers of late, but this game may be all about downfield passing for the Jets.
The wild card has to be Gardner Minshew (and, D.J. Chark). If Minshew comes back, I see this as a potential shootout. Mike Glennon aside, Jacksonville needs better options to be competitive. It seemed that Cleveland kept the Jaguars in that game more than Glennon's efforts, so I would likely fade the Jacksonville pass game entirely unless both Chark and Minshew are back in the lineup. Even then it would be tough to use either of them.
The one player likely to underperform that has been a fantasy starter this season is James Robinson. The Vikings have given up just seven touchdowns to running backs this year and shut down Carolina last week. Given how this game could play out and a potential blowout could result, Robinson could significantly underperform, but he would be a very tough player to send to the bench.
As for a sleeper to start, the lower hanging fruit would be Kirk Cousins. Jacksonville has given up two or more passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks eight times this season and yielded over 300 yards passing five times. Minnesota should be looking for spots to let Dalvin Cook get some rest, and this could be one of those opportunities.
In deep leagues and looking for a desperation play at running back, Alexander Mattison should be in a good spot to not only spell Cook but to mop up late and find the end zone on his own.
Hicks: I expect the Houston and Indianapolis matchup to produce lots of fantasy points.
I would be playing almost anyone for Indianapolis in the Colts-Texans matchup. The Texans are playing better football, but still conceding yardage at an alarming rate. They allowed Damiere Byrd his only career 100 receiving game two weeks ago.
Michael Pittman is the obvious start, but I would consider T.Y. Hilton, Zack Pascal, and Trey Burton, or Mo Alie-Cox. For the Texans, I expect good production from the tight ends, Keke Coutee, and the Johnsons’ at running back. Both quarterbacks are good plays as well.
Following the suspension of Will Fuller, the release of Kenny Stills, and Randall Cobb going to IR, Brandin Cooks will be seen as the beneficiary in target share and fantasy output. The Colts will have a great opportunity to send two guys over to Cooks and make sure that doesn’t happen. This should force Deshaun Watson to find Keke Coutee and whoever else the Texans have available.
Tremblay: Notwithstanding Andy's skepticism (read below), I like the Rams-Cardinals match-up this week for its fantasy potential. Cam Akers has good sleeper potential, having scored touchdowns in each of his past two games, and trending upward in weekly touches. Akers led the Rams in rushing yards last week while the Cardinals gave up two rushing touchdowns to James White. There are no sure things in the Rams' backfield this season and Matt has his points about Akers, but Akers has a decent shot at a solid fantasy outing in Arizona due to the volume he'll likely earn.
I'll also take the opposite side of Andy's call on Larry Fitzgerald. He's had more clunkers than solid fantasy games this season, even in PPR leagues. His season-high is 62 yards (and zero touchdowns). He's a Hall-of-Famer, but at 37 years old, he's more likely to keep falling off than turning things around.
Worst NFL Games for Fantasy in Week 13
Waldman: Share that match up and answer the following:
- Give me a less obvious option worth starting who might be on your bench or waiver wire who might outperform a lot of fantasy starters you might consider.
- Give me an obvious starter who might underperform in this game and you would consider benching.
Grant: With Baltimore-Pittsburgh being delayed almost a week due to COVID-19 issues, the game I'd find the most challenging to project the following week would be Dallas at Baltimore, currently scheduled for Tuesday the 8th. Aside from the odd night, the Ravens will have Lamar Jackson looking to shake off some rust and the Cowboys are, well, the Cowboys this season.
If you're looking for a guy who might surprise, target rookie CeeDee Lamb. Lamb has some great talent, but the challenge has been getting him the ball. Expect Dallas to get down early, and need to throw to catch up. With Amari Cooper drawing the defense toward him, Lamb should be able to post decent numbers, even in garbage time against a Baltimore defense that gave up 113 yards to Corey Davis back in week 11.
If you're going to fade anyone, I'd target anyone who catches the ball from the Ravens' side. Dallas has the worst run defense in the league, so between Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, and Mark Ingram, I don't expect the Ravens to need to pass for more than 200 yards as a team. Split that among everyone and you can see how nobody is really going to have a good fantasy game.
Wood: The lowest point total on the board this week is Miami-Cincinnati at 42 points, but it's not necessarily the most challenging fantasy game because Miami is projected to score 26.75 points and has a number of viable players. Meanwhile, the Bengals are projected to score a meager 15.25 points and the entire roster is an easy fade assuming Joe Mixon isn't back on the field.
The real conundrum is the Lions-Bears game, projected at 44 points. Neither team has been consistent this year and are both at multi-year lows. The Lions just fired Matt Patricia and their GM, and we still don't know whether Kenny Golladay and DeAndre Swift will be available. In Chicago, Matt Nagy is on tilt and yelling at everyone to look in the mirror and take accountability; that's never a good sign for a coaches' future.
Haseley: Here's one you may not have expected: New Orleans at Atlanta. The Saints are a different team with Taysom Hill at quarterback. They are a running team led by Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray, and Hill himself.
Last week against Denver, the Saints passed for a total of 78 yards. They are not forcing passes and that seems to suit their offense. Atlanta happens to have the third-best defense against running backs since Week 10.
Only Tampa Bay and these Saints have allowed fewer fantasy points to running backs in that range. Atlanta's strength is their passing game, however, New Orleans not only has a strong defense against the run, but they are also stout against the pass. This year, they have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and since Week 10 they have given up the fewest in the league.
Quarterbacks against the Saints have just one touchdown pass since Week 8. They are also one of two teams who have not allowed a 300-yard passer this year (Pittsburgh being the other). While this game sounds like a good old-fashioned back-and-forth offensive battle of the NFC South, it's shaping up to be a close, gritty, last possession wins type of game.
Both team's defenses are on the rise and it could lead to a stalemate on the field with a lack of firepower on the scoreboard.
Hicks: The Cardinals-Rams matchup is one I don’t like this week for fantasy purposes. Arizona has seen some strange results from receivers against their defense. Tyler Lockett had the game of his life with 200 yards and 3 touchdowns, Cole Beasley earned 100 yards, and Jamison Crowder had his best game of the season while DK Metcalf only had 5 catches for 69 yards combined in two games.
At running back, no runner has earned a 100-yard game against the Cardinals. With three running backs alternating carries all year, good lucking landing with the right one.
I am worried about the DeAndre Hopkins matchup so the player I would be tempted to hit on here would be Larry Fitzgerald if he has no complications from his COVID-related illness. Fitzgerald had several eight catch games in recent weeks and Kyler Murray would be well-disposed to take the easier opportunities to target Fitzgerald. The veteran hasn’t found the end zone yet this year and is due.
Despite my concerns about Hopkins, you have to start him even if it will be so much easier for the Cardinals to target their other options away from Jalen Ramsey. It is highly likely Ramsey sits on Hopkins and if Kyler Murray is errant on any passing attempts then lookout. Ramsey and Hopkins have a history from their AFC South matchups.
This will be their first NFC West matchup. In their seven previous matchups, Hopkins has two clear wins, while Ramsey has four. Hopkins did take advantage in some of those games when Ramsey went out.
Hopkins has stated that Ramsey is his favorite cornerback to play against, but if I were starting him, and why wouldn’t you be, I would be hoping Hopkins takes advantage when Ramsey takes a breather.
Waldman: For those interested in studying the way Hopkins and Ramsey play each other, I did a film session and analysis of this great matchup a couple of years ago, here. These are two of my favorite players in the NFL because they are both crafty technicians who use veteran savvy to beat the crap out of each other on the perimeter.
If you enjoy learning how boxers have tricks that they learn how to hide from the referee, the aforementioned link will show you similar gray-area techniques that both players use when they figure out how loose or tight the officials will call the game.
Fantasy Time Machine
Matt Waldman: If you could take what you know now and apply it to your 2020 fantasy drafts, what would you do differently?
Harstad: Draft more good players and fewer bad ones, probably.
Waldman: This is why Footballguys has relegated you to talk about kickers for rent. Go back to your abacus collection.
Grant: I agree with Adam.
Waldman: You're assigned here, I can't do anything with you at the moment.
Pasquino: Adam actually summarized it pretty well.
Waldman: You, too?
Pasquino: You get what you ask for.
Waldman: I'm a dope.
Harstad: Yes, you are.
Pasquino: I felt like I had a good handle on players to draft at different spots throughout the draft this year, but the only gaps were landing players I really liked late. I should have moved them up on my lists more to secure that I grabbed them. Inevitably, waiver wire moves are made so the last 2-3 picks typically don't matter much, and this year has been made by working the wire a ton.
The biggest regret I'd say is that I didn't believe in James Robinson enough. He was dirt cheap and I should have had more exposure to him. Every starting tailback has value.
Waldman: I'm with you there. I recommended Robinson in Week 1's Replacements, which is suggested as a feature at Footballguys this year in case the pandemic created a demand for players of value often well below the threshold of opportunity that we'd normally consider likely. Still, I figured Robinson was a placeholder for Ryquell Armstead or a committee piece with Chris Thompson or Devine Ozigbo.
Hicks: Like Jason, I do most of my postseason evaluation when the full set of data is available. This year has been difficult for all the external reasons, let alone the usual normal fantasy head-scratchers.
Looking at the rearview so far? There are many players like Terry McLaurin I underrated for seemingly sound reasons, but the biggest regret was going all-in on Bill O'Brien's moves of acquiring David Johnson and Brandin Cooks.
He had gotten this team to the playoff in four of the last five years and the offense was always productive. Oh well, you live and learn.
Tremblay: First, I'd have pushed harder for fantasy leagues to play this season instead of taking the year off because of the pandemic—remote drafts only. A non-trivial percentage of leagues opted out of the 2020 season, and I think that's a shame. The leagues that have powered through 2020 have been rewarded with plenty of fun.
Second, I'd have pushed for certain COVID-related rules changes, like unlimited Injured Reserve spots in dynasty and keeper leagues, and the introduction of limited Injured Reserve even in redraft leagues.
Third, I'd have drafted Justin Herbert, James Robinson, Antonio Gibson, Justin Jefferson, Chase Claypool, and Tee Higgins for the most awesome all-rookie team ever.
Waldman: Maurile makes a great point about rookies. I would have pushed back harder at the notion that rookies would be dicier plays than ever in light of the pandemic.
In hindsight, if a rookie is in shape and learns the playbook, that's going to be enough for him to play and play well and it leads to a point that most Footballguys staff will not agree with, at least as a superficial statement: Training camp is overrated.
It doesn't mean training camp is worthless—far from it. However, I have attended a lot of practices with NFL talents. I have studied tapes of football practices, and it's clear that the most meaningful things that beat reporters glean from practices are what's told to them by coaches and other players after the sessions.
Most beat reporters aren't game analysts. It's not their job to study film, to know the details of positional techniques, or have the eyes of a scout or coach. Reporters ask questions of experts and craft stories around them. We forget that when it comes to sportswriters.
We really don't know how well rookies will perform until they hit the field in a regular-season game. Training camp gives us an idea of who is earning an opportunity to play in September but the details of Bryan Edwards leaping over defenders for big plays in camp or Zack Moss breaking tackles in scrimmages are not translatable to the regular season because rehearsals can only offer so much for a rookie to experience.
Yet, opposing defenses don't adjust to new players who perform well early on for at least 4-6 weeks due to the length of the cycle of data and film collection that every NFL team uses to apply to game plans. It means that if a rookie is playing well early, it's likely to last for 1-2 months.
And if a rookie struggles early but continues to earn playing time after the first month, there's a likelihood that he'll improve over the course of the season. This is a risky heuristic, but a less risky heuristic is that a rookie who earns playing time midway through or later in the year and performs well will likely perform well throughout the rest of the season because the film and the data-gathering cycle will not catch up to him within the current year.
As for individual players, I wouldn't have been as high on Lamar Jackson as I was. A good lesson to remember whenever drafting young quarterbacks is that it takes about three years for quarterbacks to prove whether or not they belong as consistent starters.
Many quarterbacks have promising rookie years but ultimately fail once defenses begin to figure out the flaws of these passers and gameplan to take away what these passers specifically do well or throw obstacles at these quarterbacks that force them to do things where they struggle. Baker Mayfield, Marcus Mariota, and Jameis Winston are recent examples of quarterbacks who shined as rookies and struggled afterward.
Some quarterbacks struggle mightily as rookies and then have much better second years but can't adjust to the defensive adjustments that come in Year Three. Remember, not every defense has the personnel to contain every type of quarterback. There are often situations where defenses have several potential weaknesses to address with a quarterback but they have to choose 1-2 of those potential weaknesses as a priority to address, and it turns out the quarterback has either improved or showed that it wasn't a weakness after all.
Carson Wentz, Blake Bortles, and Jared Goff are examples of quarterbacks who had strong second seasons but haven't grown during subsequent seasons.
It means that counting on Jackson to remain an elite fantasy quarterback was going against the laws of quarterback development to a certain extent, especially in an offense that is schemed to minimize certain weaknesses in his game that opponents would have a greater likelihood to limit after a season of exposure on tape.
Wood: I do an annual overview of my process after the season.
Harstad: Does it include spreadsheet columns for "Things I would have laughed at six months ago," or do you need a bigger database for those things?
Wood: With 2020 unfolding as it has, I may need my own cold room for network storage.
I evaluate my own league performances but also all the projections, rankings, and recommendations I made for the site. While we're still about two months away from the deep dive, one thing that comes to mind is a more aggressive approach at preemptive pickups. This year felt like I was always one step behind on the waiver wire as COVID-19 and the short-term IR have massively expanded the need to swap in second and third-stringers without much of a resume.
Haseley: It's impossible to know everything, especially this season. The barrage of Week 2 injuries, the COVID situation dictating who plays and who doesn't, It's a war of attrition, and the deepest, most forward-thinking fantasy teams are winning. I have managed to withstand the blasts in some leagues, but not so well in others. It's virtually impossible to have consistently good luck in multiple leagues. If you are ahead of the pack in your league or leagues, all the power to you because for every winning team, there are losing teams.
If I had to pinpoint a reason or narrow it down to something that I could've done differently, I guess I would've liked to have more faith in my ability to find running backs later in the draft, rather than targeting them in the early rounds. Late-round running back is going to be a thing in the years to come. It already is.
Granted drafting Derrick Henry is always a safe investment, but there have been so many backs that appeared out of nowhere due to injury mostly, but also performance. Antonio Gibson, Myles Gaskin (for a time), Mike Davis, James Robinson, Nyheim Hines, J.D. McKissic, etc. Perhaps the way to go is to draft one strong running back in rounds 1-4 and wait, just wait until the best back is available for the taking.
Focus on the tight end, or even a big name quarterback as well as top wide receivers. Running backs seem like a dime a dozen, it just depends on the offense and a back's ability to perform within that offense. We see that clearly with Mike Davis.
Good running backs can come from nowhere. We see it every year. It's not just a one-year anomaly. The shark move is to pounce on the waiver wire when available, especially in the early weeks of the season before everyone knows how valuable a player is. Having advanced knowledge of a team's offense or taking advantage of a coach that best utilizes a running back is also key.
It's not so much the player, but the system that ultimately is the reason for a back's success.
