WEEK 16 PREPARATION
Congratulations to those of you who dominated the playoffs up to this point, or squeaked through by the narrowest of margins. You looked at bad luck in the face and said, "is that all you got?" Last week, several key players did not come through for us, including but not limited to Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Jared Goff, etc. and that's just quarterbacks. Several consistent notable running backs and receivers also struggled - there were quite a few. Keenan Allen, DK Metcalf, Robby Anderson, Tyler Lockett, Adam Thielen, Cooper Kupp, Cam Akers, Kenyan Drake, T.J. Hockenson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Amari Cooper, Davante Adams, Austin Ekeler, among others had surprisingly poor results. There will be a lot of teams in the title game who stumbled in. To use a hockey/soccer analogy, a goal is still a goal even if it slowly rolls past the goalie. It takes skill to advance this far, but there's also a great deal of luck involved. Congratulations if you made it this far. A lot of strong teams will be watching from home without a team competing in Week 16.
For those of you who did make it...Week 16 is here. You survived. You're in the Finals. (Hopefully, the smallest of percentages of you have a Week 17 Championship). Maybe you have a lot of money on the line? Or maybe just bragging rights among your family, friends or co-workers. Either way, the goal is in sight. Here are a few thoughts on how you can take down your opponent and lift the trophy.
HISTORICALLY, HOME RUNNING BACKS ARE MORE PRODUCTIVE
Unless there's an injury to a big-name player, go with those who got you here. Home running backs are the ticket, especially later in the year. Perhaps the biggest key performer at home this week is Alvin Kamara (vs Minnesota) or Austin Ekeler (vs. Denver). Also to be mentioned are the backs who will face, Houston, Detroit, Dallas, Jacksonville, Denver, and recently, Indianapolis. All have given up the most fantasy points to running backs since Week 10.
Positive matchups for runningbacks include:
- Tampa Bay at Detroit (Leonard Fournette and/or Ronald Jones II)
- Cincinnati at Houston (Giovani Bernard)
- Chicago at Jacksonville (David Montgomery)
- Philadelphia at Dallas (Miles Sanders)
- Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver (Austin Ekeler) monitor quad.
- Pittsburgh vs Indianapolis (James Conner/Benny Snell). The Steelers have struggled running the ball lately, so I'm less enthusiastic about this matchup, but the numbers suggest a positive outcome.
As for other stud running backs, Derrick Henry plays at Green Bay. The Packers have improved their run defense, reaching the Top 9 in fantasy points allowed since Week 10. Dalvin Cook is matchup-proof but he will have a tough battle at New Orleans who have allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs since Week 10. Getting back to running backs at home who could produce for us this week include Aaron Jones vs Tennessee, DAndre Swift vs Tampa Bay, Josh Jacobs vs Miami, and LeVeon Bell vs Atlanta.
RIDE THESE PLAYERS FOR THE WIN
Patrick Mahomes II vs Atlanta - This goes without saying, but Mahomes has only two games this year where he didn't reach 2+ touchdown passes. Ironically, both were against Denver. With Mahomes' success comes the fantasy production of Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Both receivers have shown consistency throughout the year. There is no reason to think that will cease this week.
Tom Brady and the Buccaneers playmakers at Detroit - The Better Detroit plays, the better the chances for more production on Tampa's side. A back and forth battle is good for all fantasy participants. Tampa and their opponent have each reached at least 23 points in four of the last five games. The same rings true for Detroit - 24 points by them or their opponent in each of the last four games including a 46-25 loss to Tennessee last week. In short, the over is trending for these two teams. This week's over/under is 54, which isn't even the highest of the week. That distinction goes to TEN at GB with a total of 56. Tampa likely scores 30+ so having Bucs players in your lineup is a smart move, including thought to Antonio Brown, who finally reached pay dirt last week.
Tennessee at Green Bay - Speaking of the 56-point Vegas over/under, this game could also be a big fantasy-producing battle, provided the late December weather in Green Bay isn't too much of a factor. Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, etc are all in play this week. If Vegas is predicting 56 points, you will want a piece of that action.
LET FOOTBALLGUYS DO THE LEGWORK FOR YOU
Fantasy Football is essentially making decisions on unknown expectations. Oh sure, we can get an idea of who to play based on trends, statistics, matchups, and opportunities, but the more you know, the better off you'll be. Research Vegas lines. Our John Lee does a great job of looking at each game's expected point totals to learn about which players to target in his weekly Vegas Value Chart You can also use DFS to give you an edge when determining your lineup. Each week we take a look at expected ownership percentages based on lineups that locked for Thursday night contests. Projecting roster percentages. A high roster percentage by the consensus of the daily fantasy world might be enough to persuade you to pencil in a particular player in your Championship game lineup. You'll be surprised how much this can help you. One last page that can help you is Sean Settle's weekly piece, WR/TE Matchups to Exploit. This article examines the good and bad matchups that receivers have against opposing cover corners. It's a great weekly read that can ultimately be the deciding factor on pulling the trigger on your WR4 or your flex option. *Please note these links are tagged with Week 16 articles that may not be published until Wednesday or Thursday of this week.
THREE QUARTERBACKS TO BE WARY OF STARTING
For the most part, ride with the horse that got you here, but here are three big-name quarterbacks who may not reach their usual production
Kirk Cousins at New Orleans - The Saints have been strong against quarterbacks all season, but especially since Week 9. Prior to Patrick Mahomes II' three-touchdown game last week, the Saints allowed only three touchdown passes in the last six games.
Russell Wilson vs Los Angeles Rams - If you are somehow alive and have Russell Wilson, the Championship Game scenario is a murky one. The Rams were just beaten by the Jets but defensively, they are a solid team. The Rams have allowed 1 or 0 touchdown passes in ten games this season. Ten! Wilson is already struggling to produce and now he'll face a Rams team that wants to right the ship and they have the men (especially on defense) to do it.
Jared Goff at Seattle - On the opposite side of the coin is the Seahawks pass defense and their ability to limit quarterbacks. Ever since the arrival of Carlos Dunlap, Seattle has strengthened their pass defense allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks since Week 10. This is a tough matchup all around for both teams in this battle of the NFC West. Be wary of starting players from both teams.
Others to shy away from include Philip Rivers at Pittsburgh, the Raiders quarterback (Mariota/Carr) vs Miami, Teddy Bridgewater at Washington.
TWO UNLIKELY QUARTERBACKS TO CONSIDER STARTING
It's difficult to consider starting either of these quarterbacks in a Championship game, but if you're in a two-quarterback league, or if you are in dire need of a potential gem, take a flier on these favorable matchups
Ryan Finley at Houston - Any successful running quarterback is usually a good fantasy producer. Finley passed for only 89 yards and ran for 47 yards and he had two touchdowns against the Steelers defense. He nearly reached 20 fantasy points. What can he do against the Texans? This is a good matchup and could produce decent numbers for those who are in two-quarterback leagues.
Alex Smith vs Carolina - Yes, the Panthers shut down Aaron Rodgers in the second half last week, but the same defense allowed four and three touchdown passes to Drew Lock and Kirk Cousins in the previous two games. If Smith is able to start this week, he is an option to consider in two-quarterback leagues.
WHO ARE SOME WAIVER PICKUPS THAT YOU CAN POTENTIALLY START THIS WEEK?
In most cases, the last player to earn a spot in your starting lineup is the one who can shift the points total in your favor when the last snap is made on Monday Night Football. Which player is the difference-maker? It could come from the last player you insert into your lineup. Here are a few options if you're in dire need of help due to a Week 15 injury.
Dare Ogunbowale, Jacksonville vs Chicago - James Robinson (ankle) may not be active this week, which opens the door for Ogunbowale to find some success as a rusher and receiver for the Jaguars. The matchup isn't great, but there is potential for decent volume if Robinson sits.
Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams at Seattle - Cam Akers (ankle) is out this week and Darrell Henderson may be available on the wire. The matchup isn't great, but the volume should be adequate for a waiver wire running back in a time of need. Malcolm Brown is also someone who could potentially vulture a goal-line touchdown but his volume won't be as high as Henderson.
Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati at Houston - Is there a running back in the league who does less when expected and more when not expected than Giovani Bernard? He struggled against Dallas and many dropped him, only to watch him score two touchdowns against the Steelers. Frustrations are probably high with Bernard. Can you trust him this week? In some cases, you may not have a choice. He's a good waiver pickup who could pay dividends.
Greg Ward, Philadelphia at Dallas - Ward scored twice last week with Jalen Hurts under center. That's definitely something to consider for this week and he's probably available on your league's waiver wire.
John Brown, Buffalo at New England - Brown (ankle) may be returning to action this week. The Bills are riding high on the arm of Josh Allen. If Brown is active, he becomes a potential fantasy boom against a Patriots team without Stephon Gilmore.
Feel free to reach me on Twitter with any questionable lineup decisions. As always, good luck to you. Go earn the Championship!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com
