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WEEK 15 PREPARATION

Matchups to exploit in Week 15

Some of you may disagree with these thoughts and opinions and that's fine. I like to follow stats, trends, and matchups. These thoughts are based on those observations.

Take advantage of favorable matchups - there are several this week

Both Detroit and Tennessee (Tennesee vs Detroit)

The numbers

• Detroit has allowed 41, 34, 27, 20, 41, 30, and 31 points in the last seven games.
• Detroit has allowed 9 touchdown passes in the last four games averaging 283 passing yards against with 2.3 touchdown passes.
• Detroit has allowed opposing running backs to score 2+ touchdowns in eight games this year. And Derrick Henry is next.
• Detroit has allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers since Week 10 averaging 18 receptions for 238 yards and 1.0 touchdowns per game to wide receivers.
• Surprisingly, Detroit has been pretty decent against tight ends this season, allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
• Tennessee has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks since Week 10 (fifth-most all season).
• Tennessee has allowed opponents to score 30+ points on them six times this season.
• Tennessee's defense has the worst third-down conversion against percentage in the league at 52.2%.
• Quarterbacks have had 2+ touchdown passes against Tennessee nine times this season.
• Tennessee has allowed only two touchdowns to running backs going back to Week 10, so Detroit's offense may come mostly on the receiving end. Tennessee has allowed six touchdowns (five to wide receivers and one to a tight end) to receivers in the last three games.

Fantasy starters

• Must start: Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, Ryan Tannehill, T.J. Hockenson
• Good start: Corey Davis, Kenny Golladay (monitor status), Matthew Stafford (monitor status), DAndre Swift
• Coin flip: Jonnu Smith, Marvin Jones (goes up if Golladay is out), Danny Amendola

LA Rams vs NY Jets

The Numbers

• The Jets have allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, but the most since Week 10.
• Quarterbacks have thrown 2+ touchdown passes against the Jets in nine games this year. Five games of 3+ touchdown passes.
• Since Week 8 the Jets have allowed 17 touchdown passes with only 2 interceptions.
• Surprisingly, the Jets have allowed only one touchdown to a running back going back to Week 9. Backs they have faced during that time include Chris Carson (the lone touchdown scorer), Raiders without Jacobs, Dolphins without Ahmed or Gaskin, Chargers without Ekeler. While the stats show well, they have escaped some big-name backs. They face an emerging one this week in Cam Akers.
• The Jets allow 1.2 touchdowns to wide receivers per game this year (fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers). It jumps to 1.5 since Week 10.
• Surprisingly, the Jets have blanked wide receivers from scoring in five games - but when it rains, it pours. If one scores, there is a decent chance it will be two.
• Tight ends have scored 12 touchdowns against the Jets this year. Seven of those came against the TE2 on the team.

Fantasy Starters

• Must start: Jared Goff, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Cam Akers, Rams Def/ST
• Good start: Tyler Higbee, Gerald Everett
• Coin flip: Jamison Crowder

Baltimore vs. Jacksonville

The Numbers

• Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, averaging 280 passing yards and 2.2 touchdown passes per game.
• Jacksonville has allowed 2+ touchdown passes in seven straight games and ten times this season.
• Jacksonville has allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs this season and is one of eight teams to allow a touchdown or more per game to running backs.
• Jacksonville has allowed five 100-yard rushers including one in each of the last three games.
• Jacksonville has allowed a 100-yard wide receiver in nine straight games.
• There have been only three games this year where a wide receiver didn't score against Jacksonville. They have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers since Week 10.
• Jacksonville has allowed a 100-yard wide receiver in nine straight games coming into this matchup with Baltimore.
• Jacksonville has only played four games this year where the opposing tight end did not score.

Fantasy Starters

• Must start: Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, Mark Andrews, James Robinson
• Good start: Marquise Brown
• Coin flip: Gus Edwards, Willie Snead, D.J. Chark, Gardner Minshew

Green Bay vs Carolina

The Numbers

• In the last five games, Carolina has allowed 14 touchdown passes and Aaron Rodgers has thrown 15. Advantage Rodgers
• Carolina has allowed only one touchdown to a running back going back to Week 10. This matchup is more about the Packers receivers than running backs
• Green Bay has also improved their standing in run defense, allowing only two touchdowns to running backs since Week 9.
• Carolina has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers since Week 10 averaging 1.8 touchdowns per game to wide receivers in that span.
• Carolina has allowed five 100-yard wide receivers this season but none since Week 9.
• Wide receivers have scored three touchdowns in each of the last two games against Carolina.
• Green Bay has allowed only two 100-yard receivers this year - Richie James in Week 9 and Adam Thielen in Week 1.
• Carolina has allowed 8+ receptions to tight ends in three of the last five games. Robert Tonyan Jr has scored in four straight games.

Fantasy Starters

• Must Start: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Robert Tonyan Jr
• Good start: Robby Anderson, Mike Davis (monitor Christian McCaffrey's status), Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Curtis Samuel
• Coin flip: Teddy Bridgewater

Indianapolis vs Houston

The Numbers

• In the previous meeting in Houston in Week 13, the Texans allowed 285 yards passing and 2 touchdowns to Philip Rivers. Last week they allowed 267 yards and 3 touchdowns to Mitchell Trubisky. Rivers has thrown for 2+ touchdowns in four straight games.
• The Colts have allowed five rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season and nine to running backs.
• The Texans have allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs this year and most since Week 10.
• Houston has allowed seven 100-yard rushing performances this season with 16 rushing touchdowns and 1 receiving touchdown to running backs. Only one game did they keep a running back from scoring at least once.
• Houston has allowed three 100-yard wide receivers in the last four games and has allowed at least one wide receiver touchdown in all but two games this season.
• T.Y. Hilton has four touchdowns for the Colts in the last three games.
• Interestingly enough, the Colts have allowed a wide receiver to reach 90+ receiving yards in four straight games.
• Surprisingly, Houston has allowed only one touchdown to a tight end since Week 7.

Fantasy Starters

• Must start: Jonathan Taylor
• Good start: Deshaun Watson, T.Y. Hilton, Keke Coutee, Philip Rivers
• Coin flip: Brandin Cooks, Michael Pittman, Nyheim Hines, David Johnson

Las Vegas vs LA Chargers

The Numbers

• The Raiders have allowed 2+ touchdown passes in five of the last six games and five 300-yard passing games this season but none since Week 11.
• After allowing 11 touchdown passes from Week 7-11, the Chargers have buckled down allowing only four in the last four games.
• The Raiders have allowed seven rushing touchdowns in the last four games including back-to-back 100-yard rushing games to Ty Johnson and Jonathan Taylor.
• The Chargers have not allowed a rushing touchdown since Week 11. They have allowed two 100-yard rushing games, but none since Week 7 (James Robinson).
• Austin Ekeler has 24 receptions in the last three games, two of which he went over 100 combined yards easily. Ekeler has only one touchdown this season in seven games.
• Josh Jacobs scored in three consecutive games in Weeks 9-11, but he hasn't scored since.
• The Raiders have allowed two touchdowns to wide receivers in each of the last three games. They have allowed five 100-yard wide receivers this season.
• The Chargers have allowed at least one touchdown to a wide receiver in every game since Week 7.
• The Chargers have allowed nine touchdowns to tight ends this year but none in the last two games.
• The Raiders have allowed only five touchdowns to tight ends this year and other than Travis Kelce, no tight end has exceeded more than 62 yards (Gronkowski) against them.

Fantasy Starters

• Must start: Austin Ekeler, Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Darren Waller
• Good starts: Josh Jacobs, Nelson Agholor
• Coin flip: Hunter Henry, Tyron Johnson, Hunter Renfrow

Be aware of the following trends

• Terry McLaurin vs Seattle - After allowing 13 touchdowns to wide receivers through Week 9, the Seahawks have not allowed a touchdown to a wide receiver since (LAR, ARI, PHI, NYG, NYJ)
• Tua Tagovailoa vs New England - The Patriots have allowed only one touchdown pass in the last three games.
• Patrick Mahomes II at New Orleans - The Saints have allowed only three touchdown passes since Week 8 and have held quarterbacks to 0 touchdown passes in three of those games.
• Russell Wilson at Washington - The Football Team has allowed quarterbacks to pass for 2+ touchdowns only twice since Week 5.
• Baker Mayfield at NY Giants - The Giants have not allowed a quarterback to pass for 2+ touchdowns since Week 8 (Brady).
• Josh Allen at Denver - The Broncos have allowed only two touchdown passes in the last five games.
• Steelers wide receivers at Cincinnati - After allowing 13 touchdowns to wide receivers through Week 10, the Bengals have allowed only two in the last four games.

Good luck this week. Go earn your ticket to the Championship Game.

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com

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