WEEK 14 PLAYOFF PREPARATION
9 THOUGHTS WORTH THINKING
Some of you may disagree with these thoughts and opinions, but that's fine. I like to follow stats, trends, and matchups. These thoughts are based on those observations.
1. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks have been off lately, but relief is coming at least for one week - Seattle has lost four of their last seven games. Russell Wilson started the season with six games of three touchdown passes or more in the first seven games. He has since cooled off throwing only two touchdown passes in two of the last five games. The Jets come to town this week, who have allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks since Week 8, averaging 342 yards passing with 2.6 touchdown passes. After Week 14, Seattle will play at Washington, vs the Rams, and then home for San Francisco. Wilson is supposedly matchup-proof but if he has a rough outing vs. the Jets, the rest of his playoff schedule won't be easy.
2. Which defense should you play Week 14? - I like the Saints at Philadelphia a lot, but road defenses can sometimes be troublesome. The news of Jalen Hurts taking over is too much to ignore. He should run into some growing pains, especially against a tough Saints defense. If you can't start the Saints, another team to consider is Tampa Bay vs Minnesota. The Vikings are a different team on the road and they have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing Defense/ST units this year giving up an average of 1.0 interceptions per game and nearly a fumble loss per game (0.8). The Bucs run defense allows a league-best 54 yards rushing to running backs per game. If they stop Dalvin Cook, it will force Kirk Cousins to throw. The Bucs dominant pass rush will force him into making mistakes and poor throws. This could be a big game for the Bucs defense that could result in multiple turnovers and sacks. I still think Cousins will get yardage in this game, especially in the second half, but with it could result in some turnovers.
3. If/when you make it past Week 14, consider targeting one of these defenses for Week 15 and 16 in this week's waiver claims:
- Who plays Philadelphia? Since Week 10, the Eagles are allowing 5.3 sacks and 1.3 turnovers per game. Week 15 - at Arizona. Week 16 - at Dallas
- Who plays Cincinnati? Since Week 10, the Bengals are allowing 4.0 sacks and 2.3 turnovers per game. Week 15 - Pittsburgh. Week 16 - at Houston
- Who plays Atlanta? Since Week 10, the Falcons are allowing 4.0 sacks and 1.3 turnovers per game. Week 15 - at Tampa Bay. Week 16 - Kansas City
- Who plays Seattle? Since Week 10, the Seahawks are allowing 4.0 sacks and 1.3 turnovers per game. Week 15 - at Washington. Week 16 - Los Angeles Rams
- Who plays Denver? Since Week 10, the Broncos are allowing 3.0 turnovers per game. Week 15 - Buffalo. Week 16 - at Los Angeles Chargers
- Who plays San Francisco? Since Week 10, the 49ers are allowing 2.0 sacks and 3.5 turnovers per game. Week 15 - at Dallas. Week 16 - at Arizona
4. Both Tom Brady and Kirk Cousins are excellent plays this week - After starting the season with five losses in six games, the Vikings have righted the ship winning five of their last six. In those six games, Kirk Cousins has 15 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. To make things more appealing, the Buccaneers have allowed at least three touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in each of the last four games. The Bucs have the best run defense in the league and should be able to slow down Dalvin Cook, forcing Cousins to throw more, especially in the second half, and especially if Tampa Bay can put points on the board themselves. Minnesota has allowed only one quarterback to throw for more than one touchdown in a game since Week 9, but those quarterbacks weren't Tom Brady. Against other strong quarterbacks, the Vikings gave up 4 touchdowns to Aaron Rodgers in visit one, and three in visit two. Other notable quarterbacks and their success against the Vikings include Matt Ryan, four touchdowns, and Russell Wilson three tocuhdowns. What will Brady be able to accomplish? The likelihood of a big game is strong. Both quarterbacks could have top 10 finishes this week as a result.
5. David Montgomery could be a key contributor to your playoff success - Last week Montgomery rose up from the ashes with over 100 yards of offense and two scores against the struggling Lions defense. This week the Bears will face a reeling Texans defense who have given up 130 rushing yards to running backs per game on average since Week 10. This also includes an average of 27 carries and 1.3 rushing touchdowns. In addition to that, running backs against the Texans have averaged 7 catches for 63 yards since Week 10. It all points to another successful outing for Montgomery. Looking further down the road, the Bears and Montgomery will play at Minnesota Week 15 and at Jacksonville Week 16. Those of you with Montgomery rostered could have a nice pick-me-up from a player you may not have started much this season. He may not be a league-winner playoff back, but he can definitely help you advance.
6. Many championship teams will have Aaron Jones and/or Derrick Henry on their roster - Forget about matchups for now, both Aaron Jones and Derrick Henry are top 5 fantasy running backs this season. They have 21 touchdowns combined and over 2,000 rushing yards. They will be a force in the playoffs, especially if you look at their remaining fantasy playoff schedule. Green Bay is at Detroit, then home for Carolina and Tennessee. Tennessee's schedule is even stronger with games at Jacksonville, vs Detroit, and then at Green Bay. If you have one or both of these backs, you have positioned yourself nicely for a deep run into the playoffs with a chance at reaching paydirt culminating in a trophy lift.
7. Christian McCaffrey to the rescue? - This is a big game for Christian McCaffrey. He missed six games between Weeks 3-8, returned in Week 9 with a bang, suffered a shoulder injury at the end of Week 9, and has not played since. This week he'll return to the field against the Broncos, a team he grew up with being the son of wide receiver Ed McCaffrey. He wasn't going to miss this game. As luck would have it, the Panthers may be without D.J. Moore (ankle/COVID) and Curtis Samuel (COVID). Carolina may wind up funneling the majority of their offense through McCaffrey. For those of you who navigated themselves to a playoff berth with McCaffrey on the bench, you may be rewarded kindly for your patience. Looking ahead, Carolina plays at Green Bay in Week 15 and at Ron Rivera's Football Team in Week 16. The Green Bay game is a favorable one but Washington has allowed only two touchdowns to running backs since Week 7. It's great to have McCaffrey back, but the waters may get choppy, especially in Championship Week 16. Update - Christian McCaffrey came down with a quad injury on Wednesday and is now questionable for this week's game against Denver. He did not practice on Thursday.
8. Can you count on Houston wide receivers (and Deshaun Watson) this week at Chicago? - I'm going to say yes. The Texans have exceeded 300 yards passing in each of their last three games (vs New England, at Detroit, and at Indianapolis), some of which were against quality defenses. The absence of Will Fuller and Randall Cobb has resulted in the emergence of Keke Coutee and Brandin Cooks. Both are considered fantasy-relevant options moving forward, including this week at Chicago. The Bears started the season allowing only two touchdowns to opposing wide receivers in Weeks 1-8. Since then, they have allowed seven in four games. Houston is on the rise offensively, especially the passing game, while Chicago is fading defensively down the stretch, winning one of their last nine games. Every game, since Week 7, the Bears have allowed at least two touchdown passes. Week 14 is Watson's turn to exploit the struggling Bears. And did you know? The Bears have allowed nine touchdowns to tight ends this season and have given up the second-most fantasy points in the league to tight ends since Week 9. Tight ends, on average, get 7 catches for 77 yards and 1.0 touchdowns in that time span of Week 9-13. This elevates Jordan Akins into a potential Week 14 start.
9. You can rely on Myles Gaskin - Last week Myles Gaskin dominated the Dolphins carry-share over Patrick Laird 21 to 3 en route to a 141-total yard effort in his first game back from a knee injury that shelved him since Week 8. The Dolphins' identity is to control the ball and the clock while playing sound, tight defense. Translation, efficient passes, and a healthy ground game. Now that Gaskin is back in the fold, his role is even more defined. Look for him to have good outings in the coming weeks with home games against Kansas City, New England, and on the road at Las Vegas.
Good luck this week. Here's hoping you all Survive and Advance.
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com
