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Saturday Night Update

1. The Titans announced last night that Jonnu Smith will be out with a knee injury. Anthony Firkser at $4,600 all of a sudden looks very interesting. He is likely to be popular but it is a tough week at the position so there is some merit into simply locking in some savings and hoping your get a touchdown in a game where Tennessee has a 29-point team total.
2. While it is still not official, all signs still point to Ryan Fitzpatrick getting the start with Tua Tagovailoa still limited in practice with a thumb injury. Fitzpatrick is one of the top bargain options at the quarterback position this week.
3. Josh Jacobs was ruled out last night, opening the door for Devontae Booker to get the start. At $6,000, Booker is priced up enough that he is far from a lock but he does look like one of the best value plays on the slate.
4. Myles Gaskin was just activated from injured reserve. The Dolphins are listing both Salvon Ahmed and DeAndre Washington as doubtful. Matt Breida recently landed on the COVID list. Gaskin and Patrick Laird are the only two backs available for the Dolphins. At just $5,500, Gaskin is another very strong value option at the running back position.
5. Allen Robinson left practice Friday with a knee injury and is now listed as questionable. At this point, it looks like Robinson should be good to go but this injury is one you want to follow up until lock if you want to play Robinson.
6. Zach Ertz was activated off of injured reserve and practiced in full on Friday. Dallas Goedert was one of a few tight ends featured in the Friday morning first look. The presence of Ertz makes it tougher to pay up for Goedert. On the other hand, the muddied waters should ensure we get Goedert at less than 5% rostered, so he still works as a contrarian play.
7. D’Andre Swift was downgraded to doubtful , either due to illness or complications from the concussion he suffered a couple weeks ago. Adrian Peterson is in play but there are higher-upside options.
8. David Johnson was activated from injured reserve after missing three games with a concussion. The matchup is tough and Johnson’s price is not overly attractive at $6,200.
9. Alexander Mattison was ruled out today after having his appendix removed. Dalvin Cook, even with a minor ankle injury, looks locked into his typical workhorse role. If you are looking for a very deep sleeper for big GPPs, how about Mike Boone ($4,600). He should get at least a handful of carries no matter what. If Cook tweaks that ankle, Boone could swing the slate while on practically 0% of rosters.

Quarterback

There is not a single quarterback play this week I am fully sold on. As will be detailed below, it is easier than normal to poke holes in the case of the top quarterbacks. That indicates the play may be to try to save a little bit of money and find some value. While that is likely the direction I will recommend Saturday night, there is not one cheaper quarterback I am strongly gravitating towards at this time, either.

In this first look at the slate, let’s walk through some of the options who are highest on my list and explore both the positives and negatives:

Taysom Hill, New Orleans ($7,700 — 4%)

Hill’s rushing makes him intriguing, especially because FanDuel’s scoring is more favorable to dual-threat quarterbacks. On FanDuel, every rushing touchdown is the fantasy equivalent of 150 passing yards. Every rushing yard is the equivalent of 2.5 passing yards. In his two starts, Hill is averaging 48 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns per game. Just to contextualize those numbers, that rushing production is the fantasy equivalent to 445 passing yards per game. If Hill comes close to the 233 actual passing yards he put up against Atlanta two weeks ago and keeps putting up big numbers on the ground, he could be one of the better PPD plays at the position given how weak the options are at the position.

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota ($7,300 — 7%)

Cousins has quietly been very good of late. He has thrown for 11 touchdowns over the last four weeks and has three straight games with 292+ passing yards. He has a great matchup against Jacksonville and should get Adam Thielen back. It is not the most exciting play but Cousins has a really solid floor for the price and maybe a bit of hidden upside as well.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami ($7,400 - 6%)

Fitzpatrick is another pay down option worth considering. He has a little bit of rushing upside and is never afraid to sling it. The Bengals defense has been about average against quarterbacks and the offense has collapsed since losing Joe Burrow, so is there upside here given the lack of shootout potential?

Russell Wilson, Seattle ($9,000 — 13%)

It feels like Pete Carroll has lost his appetite for Russ’s cooking somewhat. We have seen Wilson cool off considerably over the last month and the running game become somewhat more prominent. We have also mostly seen Wilson hit his ceiling when really pushed by the opponent, something Colt McCoy is unlikely to achieve. Wilson feels safe but unlikely to go nuclear.

Kyler Murray, Arizona ($8,700 — 6%)

When in doubt, we can typically default to just playing Murray. He has not looked himself since injuring his shoulder midway through his Week 11 game against Seattle. The Rams are allowing the least fantasy production (14.5 FanDuel points per game) to opposing quarterbacks in the league.

Running Back

Unlike quarterback, running back has plenty of strong options. The biggest decision is going to be what price range you want to land in because there are good options at just about every level.

Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers ($7,000- 20%)

In his last two full games with Justin Herbert, Ekeler has 26 carries and 27 targets. That number of 26.5 opportunities per game is amongst the highest on the slate when looking at recent usage. Plus, even in half PPR, those targets are more valuable than carries. Ekeler has averaged 14 FanDuel points per game just as a pass catcher in his last two even without getting into the end zone.

David Montgomery, Chicago ($6,200 — 30%)

Montgomery has a lot in his favor this week. He is still priced way down. He is dominating the backfield touches for the Bears and has seen heavy pass-game usage (about 5.5 targets per game) since Tarik Cohen’s injury. Most importantly, he is facing a Lions defense that is allowing 30.7 FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs. The only issue with Montgomery is that he has had juicy looking matchups plenty of times over the last two years and he is yet to score 23 fantasy points in any game in his career. Probably a very solid floor here but we have good reason to question the upside.

Frank Gore, NY Jets ($5,300 — 7%)

Speaking of high floor and questionable upside, 37-year old Frank Gore is a near lock to see in the neighborhood of 20 touches against a Raiders defense allowing the 4th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. I’m not sure his projection is so much different from a chalky guy like Montgomery to justify the gap in popularity, especially when given the $900 discount.

Dalvin Cook, Minnesota ($10,500 — 30%)

Cook is awesome. So is the matchup. The salary makes roster construction around him very difficult, however. Plus, the nagging ankle injury is cause for some concern.

James Robinson, Jacksonville ($7,800 — 25%)

Nobody is dominating his team’s backfield touches like Robinson. Over his past four games, Robinson is averaging 21.8 carries and 3.8 targets per game. That type of workload is easy to get excited about. This Minnesota defense seems to be rounding into form a bit, however.

Wide Receiver

The options at wide receiver are going to be drastically different depending upon whether or not you are rostering an expensive running back like Dalvin Cook or Derrick Henry. From a roster construction standpoint, that may be the biggest strategical consideration of the week. Do you want to have the ability to pay up for the likes of Davante Adams, DK Metcalf or somebody like that or do you want to lock in the huge upside of an elite RB1 and try to instead look for some bargains at wide receiver.

My initial lean is that the popularity projections point towards saving some money at running back and paying way up at wide receiver gives you the best bang for your buck. My first build tournament lineup for the week really leans into this strategy by including both Adams and Metcalf.

Davante Adams, Green Bay ($9,500 — 9%)

This is both a pay up to be contrarian move and a way to incorporate a boatload of upside into your lineup. The touchdown expectation here is out of this world. Adams has played eight full games and caught 11 touchdowns in those outings. His only game without a touchdown was his first back from injury. He has scored in six straight. He has topped 26.8 FanDuel points in half of his games. Plus, we just saw DK Metcalf with a career-high 177 receiving yards in this exact same matchup against Darius Slay and the Eagles last week.

DK Metcalf, Seattle ($8,500 — 11%)

Speaking of Metcalf, he is strongly in play yet again. He has cooled off a little bit and does have a tough individual matchup against James Bradberry. However, Metcalf has proven to be mostly matchup-proof (Jalen Ramsey being the lone exception). The chance to roster him at relatively low popularity looks like a nice contrarian move.

Keke Coutee, Houston ($4,800 — 5%)

Sticking with the contrarian theme, Coutee is very interesting. Not only does he come $1,700 cheaper than Brandin Cooks, he is also going to come at something like one-sixth of the popularity. This is a game where Houston is going to have to pass and Coutee looks like the clear #2 option now that both Will Fuller and Randall Cobb are out. I want to be well above the field on this Sigmund Bloom-favorite.

Allen Robinson, Chicago ($6,900 — 30%)

Robinson should get a lot of volume (he has 9+ targets in three straight games) in a fantastic matchup. The Lions give up the 7th-most FanDuel points to opposing wide receivers and are in even worse shape than normal with Desmond Trufan on injured reserve and Jeff Okudah highly questionable with a shoulder injury.

Tight End

With no Travis Kelce on the slate, the pickings are somewhat slim at tight end. Darren Waller should be the heavy chalk and is a good play but there are a couple more under the radar plays I like more at this point.

Evan Engram, NY Giants ($6,000 — 8%)

The Giants passing game is going to be a tough sell with Daniel Jones likely sidelined and journeyman Colt McCoy at the helm. This is a really nice spot for Engram, however. He is coming off one of his best games of the season (6-129-0) and is facing a Seattle defense that just gave up 10 catches for 128 yards and 2 touchdowns to the Eagles tight ends last week.

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia ($6,200 — 3%)

The Packers have been excellent against opposing tight ends and Goedert is priced up a bit (2nd-most expensive). Those two factors should lead to him flying way under the radar this week. By my accounting, Goedert has been healthy for five games this season and seen 39 targets in those games (7.8 per game). In three of those five games he has scored 16+ FanDuel points. Only Waller can boast similar proven upside amongst the tight ends on this slate.