Guiding DFS Tournament Principles
There are a number of strategies that are key to winnings large-field tournaments on FanDuel. First, we need to identify the “good chalk” — the popular plays who we want to build our lineups around. Second, we need to identify the less-popular plays who still have similar upside to the most popular players at their position. Third, we need to decide which young breakout candidates to target. Lastly, we need to add some positive correlations to our rosters by choosing which games are best to stack.
Every week, we will talk about these principles and identify the top targets in each category. These players will be listed below by category along with their projected popularity and then broken down in more depth in the position-by-position breakdowns in the following section.
1. Identify the good chalk
Our whole lineup should not be sub-5% rostered guys. Popular plays each week are usually popular for a reason and we always need to remember that the number one goal is to score as many points as possible. We do not want to get too cute and build our entire rosters around longer shot plays.
The chalk is often especially attractive at running back. Volume is key and we usually know in advance which running backs are likely to see 20+ touches. We want to build our lineups around those running backs, especially on FanDuel where it is harder to get lucky with low-volume receiving backs due to the 0.5 PPR scoring.
The following players are worth considering as core lineup pieces despite their popularity this week. Please note, the projected percent-rostered numbers listed in parentheses are calculated by Devin Knotts and updated daily throughout the week. Please check here for Devin’s latest up-to-the minute projections.
Week 8 Review
The usual suspects, Patrick Mahomes II and Russell Wilson, came through at quarterback. Davante Adams and Travis Kelce were key pieces again as the clear top players at their positions.
Week 9 good chalk
Tyler Lockett (23%)
Stefon Diggs (22%)
Keenan Allen (19%)
Deshaun Watson (12%)
2. Build uniqueness without sacrificing too much upside or floor.
We know that we do not want to avoid the chalky plays entirely. However, we also do not want to have lineups that are too chalky. Ideally, we want to have at least two sub-5% players in every lineup to increase our chances of placing highly in large-field tournaments. The key is to do so without sacrificing too much upside. Game theory demands we take into account what our competitors are doing and what the majority of the rosters we are competing with will look like.
The easiest way to get the best of both worlds (high upside on unpopular plays) is to target top players in what are perceived to be difficult matchups. The crowd can sometimes get too carried away with using weekly matchups to make their roster decisions. This gives savvy players an opportunity to roster top talents with similar fantasy projections to the chalk at a fraction of the popularity. If you hit on the right lower-rostered player, you quickly separate yourself from the pack and give yourself a chance to win the big money.
Week 8 Review
With all the attention on Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook (47.6 points) was the one must-play guy of the week and came in at well under 10%. DK Metcalf (34.1 points) was correctly identified as a somewhat contrarian play at a fraction of the popularity of teammate Tyler Lockett.
Week 9 Under the Radar
Chase Claypool (2%)
Randall Cobb (2%)
Christian McCaffrey (3%)
T.J. Hockenson (4%)
3. Show up to the party early
The surest path to low-priced upside is through talented young players who have yet to breakout. We need to be aggressive in rostering rookies and second-year players before they become proven, popular, and expensive. In large tournaments, these are the types of opportunities we must leverage to get an edge on the field. In the long run, it is better to risk jumping the gun at times as opposed to being too conservative and consistently missing out on breakout games from future stars.
Week 8 Review
Rookie DeeJay Dallas (20.3 points) was a key to success last week. Not only did he finish RB4 but his near-minimum price allowed you to fit in must-play guys like Dalvin Cook and DK Metcalf. Fellow rookie Zach Moss also finished as a Top 5 running back.
Week 9 Breakout Targets
DAndre Swift (8%)
K.J. Hamler (1%)
Quintez Cephus (1%)
Zack Moss (2%)
4. Stack to win
Stacking is a common strategy for good reason. If you are not adding strong correlations to your rosters, you are making life extra difficult. Stacking increases your odds of the winning a large-field tournament because if you pick the correct games to target, you can land on a group of players who all hit their ceilings in the same week because of a positive game environment.
The best way to build correlated lineups is to stack your quarterback with one or two of his top pass catchers while also rostering one of the top offensive threats from the opposing team. We call rostering an offensive player who is going against your primary quarterback stack “running it back.” If the game is a shootout, you have a great chance of finding yourself near the top of the leaderboard.
Week 8 Review
Our top stack last week (Wilson to Metcalf) came through. Patrick Mahomes II to Travis Kelce was expensive but if you hit on the right low-priced plays at running back, there was a path to the top of the leaderboard with that popular stack.
Week 9 top stacks
Deshuan Watson to Will Fuller or Brandin Cooks
Justin Herbert to Keenan Allen
Position-by-position breakdowns
Quarterback
Deshaun Watson, Houston ($8,300 — 12%)
Watson is third in the NFL in passing yards per game and has been on fire of late. He has thrown for 300+ yards and 2+ touchdowns in four straight games. Included in that torrid stretch was a 359-yard, 3-touchdown game against the Jaguars in Week 5. Watson is also averaging over 20 rushing yards per game this season but has not scored with his legs since Week 1. He has never gone seven games without a rushing score in his career, so he may be due for a rushing touchdown or two. That rushing upside is one of the factors making Watson such an attractive GPP play.
Deshaun Watson came through with 25/35 for 359 yards and 3 TDs in the #Texans Week 5 game against the Jaguars.
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) November 6, 2020
@awscloud | #WeAreTexans pic.twitter.com/E8Fs9ioQJn
Jacksonville has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks over the last five weeks. The Jaguars are forced to go with a rookie quarterback making his first start this week so Houston should have a chance for some short fields. The Texans are 7-point favorites in a game that has a somewhat surprisingly high 50.5 total.
Justin Herbert, LA Chargers ($7,900 — 11%)
Herbert has been on an incredible run to start his career. He is averaging over 300 passing yards per game and has accounted for 14 touchdowns over the last four games. In addition to the big passing numbers, Herbert has posted solid numbers as a runner as well (142 yards and 2 touchdowns). Since taking over as the starter in Week 2, Herbert is actually the fantasy QB3 in points per game behind only Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray. Despite this, he is still priced under $8K.
#Chargers QB Justin Herbert is locked-in QB1
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) November 6, 2020
- FF finishes last 4 starts: QB8, QB4, QB1, QB5
- 24 rushing yds/game
- FF playoff schedule: #Falcons, #Raiders, #Broncos (all top 13 in QB PPG allowed)
- Bye out of way, healthy weapons of KAllen, Mike Will, Henry, Ekeler eventually
The matchup is elite this weekend. The Raiders defense is giving allowing 20% more fantasy points to opposing passers than their season average over the last five weeks in Austin Lee’s normalized strength of schedule, which is second-highest on the slate. The numbers would be ever worse for the Raiders had they not played in a wind storm last week. In the three games prior to the wind game, the Raiders had allowed over 31 FanDuel points to opposing passers.
Other Quarterbacks to Consider
| Player | Opponent | Salary | Field% | Comment |
| Kyler Murray | Miami | $8,600 | 8% | Tough matchup but Murray has serious upside every week |
| Russell Wilson | Buffalo | $9,000 | 12% | Wilson is always in play but price is up and Buffalo has strong D |
| Josh Allen | Seattle | $8,200 | 14% | Elite matchup will make Allen justifiably popular |
| Chase Daniel | Minnesota | $6,000 | 4% | If Matthew Stafford is out, Daniel provides major salary relief |
| Lamar Jackson | Indianapolis | $8,100 | 5% | Jackson looks healthy and is again running a lot. Major upside |
Running Back
Chase Edmonds, Arizona ($6,700 — 31%)
Kenyan Drake’s injury is not as bad as initially feared but everything points to him being out this weekendagainst Miami, which opens the door for Edmonds to take on a workhorse role for at least one week. Watching Edmonds make plays with regularity despite limited opportunities has made it easy to dream about what he might be able to accomplish if he was in the backfield next to Kyler Murray almost every snap. In digging deeper into the numbers, the impression that Edmonds has been a per-touch star is confirmed. In fact, of the top 30 fantasy backs, Edmonds ranks first in terms of fantasy points per touch:
Chase Edmonds had a +47.3 production premium rating. (Measures players productivity in league-average situations, discounts 2 min drill & garbage time). The only backs ahead of him that have had any significant volume are Mostert & Jeff Wilson.
— Pro DFS Depositor (again) (@jacob_vican22) November 6, 2020
While his efficiency is likely to decline somewhat in more of an every-down role, the back of the envelop math looks pretty exciting when you consider the fact Edmonds projects for 17-to-20 touches against Miami even if you dial the point per touch numbers down a bit. As an excellent receiver, Edmonds can put up big fantasy numbers in any game script. We saw him rack up catches and receiving yardage in his last outing against Seattle as the Cardinals made a furious comeback. Arizona also ranks second in the NFL in rushing yards and could go run-heavy if they can get out to an early lead over the Dolphins. Over the last five games, Miami has given up 26% more fantasy points to opposing running backs than their season average so the matchup is a strong one.
This is a spot where it makes sense to come in above the field despite Edmonds’ popularity given how much more upside he has than the other backs in his price range.
David Montgomery, Chicago ($5,900 — 13%)
Montgomery is not an exciting play. He does not break off many big plays and the Chicago offensive line is not opening many big holes. However, he is impossible to ignore at this price given how thoroughly he is dominating backfield touches for the Bears since Tarik Cohen was injured. Last week, Montgomery handled 23 of the 27 backfield touches. In the last four games, Montgomery has touched the ball 82 times (21 per game) compared to 18 for all other backs (mostly Cordarrelle Patterson). In addition to handling 82% of the backfield touches, Montgomery had played at least 81% of the snaps in five straight games. He is a true workhorse by any definition. Despite the middling fantasy production, Montgomery has shown well this season. He is due for a breakout performance.
Most missed tackles forced (rush+rec):
— PFF (@PFF) November 5, 2020
🔹 Mike Davis - 39
🔹 David Montgomery - 39
🔹 Clyde Edwards-Helaire - 34
🔹 Josh Jacobs - 33
🔹 Dalvin Cook - 33 pic.twitter.com/umu5OogavT
Austin Lee’s normalized strength of schedule shows that the Titans have allowed 25.2 fantasy points to opposing running backs over the last five games. The Titans have given up 13+ fantasy points to a running back in every single game this season. Even with Joe Mixon out, the Bengals running backs combined for three touchdowns against the Titans last week. Given the matchup, this is a spot where Montgomery has a high floor and a realistic shot at 20+ fantasy points. The typical lineup construction this week is going to have at least one high-priced running back so there is some merit to the strategy of trying to save some money at running back to open a path to three elite wide receivers. If Montgomery can come close to keeping pace with the likes of Dalvin Cook, you are in a fantastic position to shoot to the top of the leaderboard if you land on the right wide receivers.
James Conner, Pittsburgh ($8,200 — 14%)
Conner has settled comfortably into the lead role for the Steelers. He has had six straight games with 18+ touches. While he has scored in five of those six games, he has yet to have a multi-touchdown game in 2020. He has a great shot to get into the end zone a couple times this weekend against Dallas. The Steelers are massive 14-point favorites against the Cowboys. With the Cowboys down to at least their third string quarterback, the only way the Steelers are losing this game is if they turn it over multiple times. Knowing this, the game plan is likely to include a bunch of handoffs to Conner and a safe offensive approach. There should be a number of short fields given how dominant this Steelers defense has been.
Dallas has given up 25% more fantasy points to opposing running backs than their season averages over the last five weeks. This is a spot where Conner probably should be on 30% of rosters but we project him to come in at about half of that total. Pair Conner with the Steelers defense and if this game goes according to script you could have the top scorers at two different positions.
Other Running Backs to Consider
| Player | Opponent | Salary | Field% | Comment |
| Dalvin Cook | Detroit | $9,300 | 29% | Will be extremely popular but deserves to be. Salary makes roster construction tougher |
| Josh Jacobs | LA Chargers | $7,700 | 25% | Should have a huge workload in an above-average matchup |
| Antonio Gibson | NY Giants | $6,200 | 10% | Gibson had his first 20 carry game last week and could hit that mark again this week |
| James Robinson | Houston | $7,300 | 9% | Houston has been gashed on the ground and Robinson has 4+ catches in five straight |
| DAndre Swift | Minnesota | $6,000 | 8% | Swift has been excellent on a per touch basis and his snap counts have been creeping up |
Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen, LA Chargers ($7,500 — 19%)
Aside from a Week 5 game he was injured, Allen has had 10+ targets and 7+ catches in every one of Justin Herbert’s starts. The connection between Allen and Herbert has been obvious and Allen leads the NFL in catchers per game with Herbert (even though he only played 12 snaps in one of those games). Despite his recent dominance and long track record of success, Allen is priced down at WR9 this week. The discount is hard to ignore here.
Keenan Allen:
— PFF (@PFF) November 5, 2020
âš¡ 89.2 PFF Grade (3rd)
âš¡ 53 receptions
âš¡ 0 drops pic.twitter.com/lKZ2NoX6te
The matchup is fantastic for Allen. Las Vegas has given up big passing yardage in all but one game of late (due to 45-MPH winds). Allen’s individual matchup is even more attractive. Over the last two seasons, Raiders slot cornerback Lamarcus Joyner has been rated by PFF as one of the league’s worst players in pass coverage. We saw Scotty Miller (6-109-1) destroy the Raiders from the slot a couple week ago and this defense is especially vulnerable over the middle of the field, where Allen feasts. While Allen will be one of the more popular wide receiver plays on the slate, it looks like the rostered percentages are going to be relatively flat this week. 19% projected rostered is not enough to push me off of Allen this week.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle ($7,400 — 23%)
We know Lockett has as much upside as any player on the slate, as evidenced by the 45.5 fantasy points he put up two weeks ago against Arizona. Last week, it was DK Metcalf’s turn to star because he had the better matchup. Expect the majority of the targets to go back to Lockett this week against the Bills. All Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White is expected to shadow Metcalf and teams have gone out of their way to avoid White’s coverage this season. He is only seeing 2.9 targets per week in his direction.
If White does mostly take away Metcalf, Lockett should feast. We have seen slot receivers have big games against the Bills, including Jamison Crowder (7-115-1), Cooper Kupp (9-107-1), and A.J. Brown (7-82-1).
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo ($7,600 — 22%)
Over the last five games, Seattle is allowing a whopping 53.4 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers over the past five weeks. Or to look at it differently, the Seahawks are giving up 43% more fantasy points to opposing wide receivers than their average. No other team in the NFL is above 30%. This has consistently been a smash spot for wide receivers. The Seahawks have allowed 100+ receiving yards to eight different wide receivers already this season and four receivers have caught 2+ touchdowns against the Seahawks. Unlike some other defenses that focus on taking away the opponents’ top target, the Seahawks have consistently given up big numbers to the opposing #1 receiver.
Diggs is going to be popular and there are going to be a lot of Seattle-Buffalo game stacks but if you can fit Diggs in, he still is very much worth playing. A slightly contrarian lineup build will be to roster Diggs and Lockett but stack a quarterback and wide receiver from a less popular game.
