Guiding DFS Tournament Principles
There are a number of strategies that are key to winnings large-field tournaments on FanDuel. First, we need to identify the “good chalk” — the popular plays who we want to build our lineups around. Second, we need to identify the less-popular plays who still have similar upside to the most popular players at their position. Third, we need to decide which young breakout candidates to target. Lastly, we need to add some positive correlations to our rosters by choosing which games are best to stack.
Every week, we will talk about these principles and identify the top targets in each category. These players will be listed below by category along with their projected popularity and then broken down in more depth in the position-by-position breakdowns in the following section.
1. Identify the good chalk
Our whole lineup should not be sub-5% rostered guys. Popular plays each week are usually popular for a reason and we always need to remember that the number one goal is to score as many points as possible. We do not want to get too cute and build our entire rosters around longer shot plays.
The chalk is often especially attractive at running back. Volume is key and we usually know in advance which running backs are likely to see 20+ touches. We want to build our lineups around those running backs, especially on FanDuel where it is harder to get lucky with low-volume receiving backs due to the 0.5 PPR scoring.
The following players are worth considering as core lineup pieces despite their popularity this week. Please note, the projected percent-rostered numbers listed in parentheses are calculated by Devin Knotts and updated daily throughout the week. Please check here for Devin’s latest up-to-the minute projections.
Week 5 Review
For the most part, the chalky running backs came through. Mike Davis and Ezekiel Elliott led all running backs in scoring and also topped the list of most rostered. Patrick Mahomes II and Travis Kelce were good chalk at tight end and the popular duo was the top stack of the week.
Week 6 good chalk
Mike Davis (41%) Underpriced given crazy volume in this role.
Alexander Mattison (37%) Should give us Dalvin Cook numbers at a big discount and in great matchup
Ryan Fitzpatrick (16%) Underpriced given how well he has performed and cake matchup versus Jets.
Adam Thielen (31%) Great matchup versus Atlanta. Has been go-to option in the red zone.
A.J. Brown (29%) Looked like a stud in his return from injury, which came after prices were already out.
2. Build uniqueness without sacrificing too much upside or floor.
We know that we do not want to avoid the chalky plays entirely. However, we also do not want to have lineups that are too chalky. Ideally, we want to have at least two sub-5% players in every lineup to increase our chances of placing highly in large-field tournaments. The key is to do so without sacrificing too much upside. Game theory demands we take into account what our competitors are doing and what the majority of the rosters we are competing with will look like.
The easiest way to get the best of both worlds (high upside on unpopular plays) is to target top players in what are perceived to be difficult matchups. The crowd can sometimes get too carried away with using weekly matchups to make their roster decisions. This gives savvy players an opportunity to roster top talents with similar fantasy projections to the chalk at a fraction of the popularity. If you hit on the right lower-rostered player, you quickly separate yourself from the pack and give yourself a chance to win the big money.
Week 5 Review
Coming off of a poor outing the week prior and flying way under the radar, Brandin Cooks delivered in Week 5 as the WR3 on the slate.
Week 6 Under the Radar
Ben Roethlisberger (1%) Has some exciting weapons and there is upside in the matchup against Cleveland
Diontae Johnson (2%) Uneven start to second season but believe in his upside.
Jamison Crowder (6%) Flying under the radar despite averaging 11 targets, 7.3 receptions, 112 yards and 0.7 touchdowns per game this season.
Austin Hooper (1%) Five more targets than any other TE on the slate over last two weeks.
3. Show up to the party early
The surest path to low-priced upside is through talented young players who have yet to breakout. We need to be aggressive in rostering rookies and second-year players before they become proven, popular, and expensive. In large tournaments, these are the types of opportunities we must leverage to get an edge on the field. In the long run, it is better to risk jumping the gun at times as opposed to being too conservative and consistently missing out on breakout games from future stars.
Week 5 Review
There are few weeks that more clearly display the importance of showing up early to the party than Week 5. Rookie Chase Claypool was the WR1 on the slate and outscored the WR2 by almost 13 points. You had to have him to win. Speaking of the WR2, that was another emerging young guy, Travis Fulgham. Henry Ruggs and Preston Williams also had Top 10 weeks at low prices and low popularity.
Week 6 Breakout Targets
Damien Harris (1%) Had 100 yards in debut but didn’t score or catch a pass. Is there more there?
Laviska Shenault (3%) Shenault has been solid but has not had a true breakout game. With Chark banged up, maybe this is his week.
4. Stack to win
Stacking is a common strategy for good reason. If you are not adding strong correlations to your rosters, you are making life extra difficult. Stacking increases your odds of the winning a large-field tournament because if you pick the correct games to target, you can land on a group of players who all hit their ceilings in the same week because of a positive game environment.
The best way to build correlated lineups is to stack your quarterback with one or two of his top pass-catchers while also rostering one of the top offensive threats from the opposing team. We call rostering an offensive player who is going against your primary quarterback stack “running it back.” If the game is a shootout, you have a great chance of finding yourself near the top of the leaderboard.
Week 5 Review
Patrick Mahomes II to Travis Kelce (Henry Ruggs run back) was the nuts.
Deshaun Watson to Brandin Cooks was strong.
Week 6 top stacks
Matthew Stafford to Kenny Golladay, run it back with Laviska Shenault
Ben Roethlisberger to Chase Claypool and/or Diontae Johnson, run it back with Odell Beckham or Austin Hooper
Kirk Cousins to Irv Smith, run it back with Calvin Ridley
Position-by-position breakdowns
Quarterback
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh ($7,600 — 1%)
We currently project Roethlisberger at sub-1% ownership, which is one of the reasons he is so intriguing as a tournament option. Roethlisberger is likely flying so far under the radar because he has yet to have a monster game in 2020. There is potential for an explosive game in this spot. The total in this game in 51 points, just a few points lower than the games that are generating all of the attention. The Browns have given up some big games this season (502 yards and 4 touchdowns to Dak Prescott and 316 yards and 3 touchdowns to Joe Burrow) and have proven to have an offense capable of jumping out to big early leads and forcing shootout game scripts.
While Roethlisberger has yet to have that one huge performance this season, his numbers to date have been solid. He is on pace for 40 touchdowns and looks like the same guy who threw for 5,129 yards in 2018. One of the nice aspects of rostering Roethlisberger this week is that his price is low enough that if he just has an average game (250 yards and 2 or 3 touchdowns), he doesn’t sink you. He has a strong floor, which is also worth considering in GPPs. That is especially true this week when there are not any quarterbacks with great projections.
#Browns DC Joe Woods on Ben Roethlisberger: "We're still working on that -- slowing him down. ... He looks the same to me (after elbow surgery)."
— Nate Ulrich (@ByNateUlrich) October 15, 2020
Matthew Stafford, Detroit ($7,300 — 14%)
The case for Stafford is pretty similar to that of Roethlisberger, minus the low projected rostered percentage. Stafford has been solid this season, averaging a bit over 250 passing yards and 2.0 touchdowns per game. He has a strong floor and is extremely cheap. He also has a fantastic matchup against a Jacksonville pass defense that ranks dead last in DVOA. The Jaguars have given up 300 passing yards in back-to-back games and we saw Deshaun Watson have his first big game of the season against this unit last week (359 yards and 3 touchdowns). There is a good chance we also see Stafford “get right” against the Jaguars.
Other Quarterbacks to Consider
| Player | Opponent | Salary | Field% | Comment |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | NY Jets | $7,400 | 16% | Chalky but great price and great matchup |
| Lamar Jackson | Philadelphia | $9,000 | 11% | Knee injury is concerning because we need big rushing numbers for this play to hit |
| Matt Ryan | Minnesota | $7,400 | 8% | Potential shootout in Minnesota, stackable game |
| Aaron Rodgers | Tampa Bay | $8,400 | 5% | Has been on fire in 2020 and gets Davante Adams back. Tough matchup |
| Kirk Cousins | Atlanta | $7,100 | 4% | Cousins has played very well of late and has a great matchup against Falcons |
| Gardner Minshew | Detroit | $7,200 | 5% | Very cheap in a game with high total but Chark injury does not help |
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis ($7,300 — 14%)
Note: Keep an eye out to make sure this game will actually be played on Sunday. This one is at risk of getting postponed.
Statement via the Colts: several members of the organization have tested positive for COVID-19 and accordingly the team's practice facility has been shut down while those tests are confirmed.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) October 16, 2020
If this game is actually played, Taylor could smash this Bengals defense. The game script sets up perfectly for a big Taylor game. The Colts are 8-point home favorites in a game they should be able to control. The Colts have big advantages in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
It is a juicy matchup for an excellent Colts line, especially on runs between the tackles where Taylor excels. The Bengals defense ranks 9th in DVOA against the pass and 21st against the run. However, even that mediocre rank against the run is going to be hard to maintain given the slew of injuries Cincinnati has suffered along the defensive line. The Bengals were horrid against the run last season and tried to solve the problem by making D.J. Reader the highest-paid nose tackle in NFL history and signing former Pro Bowler Mike Daniels to play next to him on run downs. Both players are now out for the season. The Reader injury, suffered last week, is especially brutal for the Bengals because he had been one of the run defense’s few bright spots.
Alexander Mattison, Minnesota ($7,000 — 37%)
Mattison is great chalk this week. The recommendation here is to actually come in above the field on Mattison in tournaments. He is an excellent talent and Minnesota is likely to give him in the neighborhood of 25 touches with Dalvin Cook sidelined. Even with Cook getting 22 touches before suffering an injury last week, Mattison still had 23 touches in a fantastic performance against the Seahawks (136 total yards). The projected game script sets up perfectly for Mattison. The Vikings are 4-point home favorites and boast a surprisingly high team total of 29 points.
Mattison is a well-rounded player, equally adept as a runner and receiver. His pass-catching projection is especially intriguing in this matchup. The Falcons defense has allowed the most receptions (43), receiving yards (317), and receiving touchdowns (4) to opposing running backs this season.
David Montgomery, Chicago ($5,900 — 24%)
Montgomery’s popularity will not go through the roof due to the Bears being slight road underdogs in a game with a low total. However, do not overlook him. He is in a great position for a breakout game. Since Tarik Cohen went down with an injury, Montgomery has been nearly an every-down back, playing 83% of the snaps. Negative game scripts kept him from getting many carries but his pass-game usage has taken a big step forward (14 targets over the last two weeks). He has also faced a pair of horrible matchups since the Cohen injury. Indianapolis (15.7 PPG allowed) and Tampa Bay (19.4 PPG allowed) are amongst the stingiest defenses in the league against the position.
Carolina is on the complete opposite end of the spectrum. No team has given up more PPG (31.7) to opposing backs than the Panthers. Carolina is allowing over 170 total yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game to running backs. If Chicago can come anywhere close to repeating the success other teams have had running against the Panthers, Montgomery will have a huge game at a bargain basement salary.
Other Running Backs to Consider
.@DFS_Tom breaks down why David Montgomery should be a lock this weekend in DFS 🔒
— FanDuel (@FanDuel) October 16, 2020
Full episode: https://t.co/FUQ9DooCYD pic.twitter.com/fSkYWwgTbX
| Player | Opponent | Salary | Field% | Comment |
| Mike Davis | Chicago | $7,500 | 41% | Seeing a crazy number of targets. High floor given usage |
| Myles Gaskin | NY Jets | $5,700 | 7% | Getting a ton of volume and Dolphins should dominate this matchup |
| James Conner | Cleveland | $7,100 | 9% | Conner continues to be overlooked by public despite workhorse role in good offense |
| Derrick Henry | Houston | $9,000 | 30% | Should get a ton of carries but needs multiple touchdowns to make good on salary |
| Aaron Jones | Tampa Bay | $8,500 | 18% | With few pay up options, Jones' ceiling is attractive. His monster games seem to come at random |
| James Robinson | Detroit | $6,500 | 17% | Heavy usage, good matchup, and low salary |
Wide Receiver
Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh ($5,500 — 5%)
If our percent rostered projections are right, the public is viewing Claypool’s breakout Week 5 performance as a major aberration. There is no other explanation for his projected popularity given his talent and the matchup. The Browns are giving up a whopping 39 fantasy PPG to opposing wide receivers (3rd most in the NFL). In a game with shootout potential, all of the key pieces of the Steelers passing game are strongly in play.
“He was [expletive] unstoppable,” said former Bengals wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh said, who trained four NFL draft hopefuls this offseason — including Chase Claypool.
— Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (@PittsburghPG) October 16, 2020
“I told him, by midyear, you’re going to be the No. 1 receiver on that team." https://t.co/iBhQyTaRtn
Claypool already has to be considered a key piece of the Pittsburgh offense just four games into his rookie season. He led the team’s wide receivers in snaps in Week 3 and came in just five behind JuJu Smith-Schuster for most snaps last week. Claypool is playing starter-level snaps. He saw a career-high 11 targets last week (plus 3 carries) and has earned more touches going forward. Claypool has averaged 13.1 yards per target and has scored a touchdown on 5-of-24 touches on the season.
Kenny Golladay, Detroit ($7,200 — 21%)
In GPPs, we need our wide receivers to score touchdowns. This is especially true on FanDuel given the 0.5 PPR scoring and lack of yardage bonuses. For this reason, Golladay always makes for a strong play. He led all NFL wide receiver with 11 touchdown catches last year and picked up right where he left off, scoring in both of his 2020 games. In total, Golladay has 14 touchdowns in his last 19 games. The matchup this week is fantastic. Jacksonville has the worst pass defense in the NFL (DVOA) and have allowed the 9th-most receiving yards (850)to opposing wide receivers and are allowing over 280 passing yards per game overall (4th most).
Allen Robinson, Chicago ($7,000 — 22%)
Robinson is inexplicably underpriced given his recent production. Over the last three weeks, Robinson has averaged 9.0 catches, 104.7 yards, and 0.7 touchdowns per game (19 FanDuel PPG). This offensive explosion has coincided with Nick Foles taking over the starting job midway through Week 3. Foles has been peppering Robinson with targets regardless of the coverage. Robinson not only leads the NFL in overall targets this season (56), but he is getting by far the most chances to make plays on 50/50 balls.
Allen Robinson II has 22 contested targets through 5 weeks.
— PFF (@PFF) October 14, 2020
No other player has more than 14. pic.twitter.com/jAR1OxV6Na
At this mid-tier price point, the projected volume (13 targets per game with Foles) for Robinson is hard to pass up. It gives him a strong floor and the upside is there as well.
