This article attempts to highlight some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) as well as reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchup:
WR Stefon Diggs, BUF vs SEA (Quinton Dunbar)
The Seattle secondary continues to struggle this year and all receivers for Buffalo should have a good game. The Seahawks’ secondary has allowed the most fantasy points to outside receivers this season on both sides and Diggs and John Brown have great matchups. Shaquill Griffin has allowed the most points despite being out with an injury and Tre Flowers has not done much better while filling in. Ugo Amadi will be tasked with covering Cole Beasley in the slot and all 3 of the main receivers from Buffalo have a great matchup this week. This offense started red hot at the beginning of the season before trailing off, but this should be the game to help get them back on track.
WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN vs ATL (Kendall Sheffield, A.J. Terrell)
It has not been a good season for the Atlanta Falcons secondary. They have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing receivers as well as the 4th most over the past month. Denver has gotten Drew Lock back and the offense is starting to click. Jeudy has recovered from his concussion and has breakout potential this week. Also, worth mentioning is K.J. Hamler and Tim Patrick this week as the entire core of receivers has an advantageous matchup against Atlanta. If Patrick is out with an injury you can look to DaeSean Hamilton as a deeper sleeper this week as well against a very poor Atlanta secondary.
WR Marvin Jones, DET vs MIN (Jeff Gladney)
Even if Matthew Stafford is not able to go this week due to COVID contact tracing, Jones has a great matchup against a Vikings secondary that is without several of their starting corners. Cameron Dantzler went out with an injury last with, Mike Hughes and Holton Hill were out, and the Vikings defense allowed 38 fantasy points to opposing receivers for the 4th straight game. Danny Amendola should also see a bump in this matchup as the Vikings will have to go with rookies Harrison Hand, Kris Boyd, and undrafted free agent Mark Fields. Jones torched the Vikings for 3 touchdowns in a game last season and will not be competing with Kenny Golladay for targets this week, it should be all systems go for Jones.
WR Will Fuller, HOU vs JAX (C.J. Henderson)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have given up receiving yards at an alarming rate to this point this season. Fuller has been a favorite of Deshaun Watson and always has the potential to break any play for a touchdown. He has remained mostly healthy this season and should be able to take advantage of Henderson in coverage. Also worth noting, Randall Cobb against Tre Herndon in the slot is another great matchup to try and take advantage of. The Jaguars are in the bottom 5 for passing yards allowed and will be turning to a rookie quarterback on offense. The Texans should control the ball for a big portion of this game and should be started across the board.
WR Chase Claypool, PIT vs DAL (Anthony Brown, Trevon Diggs)
The rookie Claypool has emerged in a big way for the Steelers this season, and he has a great matchup against a porous Dallas secondary. The unit looked a little better last week against Philadelphia, but Pittsburgh’s offense is on a whole different level. Diggs has been traveling with the opposition’s to receiver but is projected to bounce between Diontae Johnson and Claypool this week. This defense has not been able to stop anyone so far this season and the offense will struggle with a quarterback just elevated from the practice squad. Look for Pittsburg to control the ball and for Ben Roethlisberger to have his pick of receivers to throw to.
WR Keenan Allen, LAC vs LV (Lamarcus Joyner)
How Allen continues to be overlooked over the course of his career is mind boggling. He is the clear number 1 receiver on this team and Justin Herbert is looking like a top 10 quarterback. The Raiders have struggled on coverage, specifically Joyner. Their weakest spot is the slot and the recent success of Mike Williams on the outside should open things up even more across the middle. Look for a high volume of targets for Allen again this week and for the Chargers to pick on Joyner in the slot.
TE Noah Fant, DEN vs ATL
The Falcons struggle to cover anyone in that secondary, but tight ends specifically have done very well. They have scored 8 touchdowns this season and had 3 players exceed 20 points against them. This defense is allowing the most points to opposing tight ends and Drew Lock seems locked on Fant. He had 9 targets and made 7 catches against the Chargers last week. Fant should be a top 10 option at tight end this week.
TE T.J. Hockenson, DET vs MIN
It may seem like a risk if Matthew Stafford is out this week, but Hockenson still has a great matchup against the Vikings no matter who is under center. He hauled in 7 of 10 targets for 65 yards last week and has averaged 12.4 points per game in PPR scoring. He has at least 9 fantasy points in every game this season and the Vikings have allowed the 4th most points to opposing tight ends. Look for Hockenson to soak up targets with Kenny Golladay out this week.
Unfavorable Matchup:
WR DK Metcalf, SEA vs BUF (TreDavious White)
This should be one of the more fun matchups to watch this week as it will be strength against strength. Metcalf is the 3rd highest scoring receiver in the NFL and White has only been targeted in 11% of coverage so far this season. He has not had to face a top outside receiver yet this season but the Bills as a whole have allowed the 6th fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers and specifically the 2nd fewest to receivers lined up on the right side. Metcalf always has a chance to beat his coverage, but it will be a tough test against White who should follow him across the field this week.
WR Trent Taylor, SF vs GB (Jaire Alexander)
It is a wonder how the 49ers even manage to put a team on the field Thursday night. Between injuries and now COVID, the only current healthy receiver is Taylor. By default, he will be the top option and should receive the Alexander treatment this week. Green Bay has allowed the 7th fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers and those numbers could look even better after this week with the majority of the starting offense out. The 49ers have lost players that made up 71% of offensive snaps the last time these teams met, and it will be a struggle to get anything going against a top coverage corner in Alexander. Taylor may seem like a fun sleeper pick, but he draws one of the toughest matchups of the week.
WR Terry McLaurin, WFT vs NYG (James Bradberry)
The Giants did not have Bradberry travel with McLaurin back in week 6 during the first half, but that was when there was a healthy Ryan Lewis. Bradberry allowed all 4 passes to McLaurin to be completed but he has since been on a roll against Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Amari Cooper, and Kendrick Bourne. McLaurin may see his normal volume of targets, but it is not a great matchup against Bradberry. Temper expectations and look elsewhere if possible this week.
WR D.J. Chark, JAX vs HOU (Bradley Roby)
This would not be a great matchup even if the Jaguars were not making the switch to Jake Luton this week. Roby followed Chark when these teams met in week 5 and only allowed 2 catches for 5 yards. Chark finished the game with 3 catches for 16 yards and was completely shut down by the Houston secondary. When healthy, Roby has shadowed a receiver in 6 games this season and done a good job. Laviska Shenault has a great matchup against Vernon Hargreaves in the rematch this week. Roby has been the only consistent corner for Houston and that does not bode well for Chark.
WR Mike Evans, TB vs NO (Marshon Lattimore)
There is a little more intrigue to this game as Antonio Brown is making his debut, but the success Lattimore has had against Evans should keep him on his shadow. Lattimore held Evans without a catch on 2 targets when these teams met back in week 1 and should draw the coverage again. Tom Brady and the Tampa offense has looked better than that week 1 game, but it does not change the coverage for Evans who has not looked like his dominant self this season. Brown could fill the Chris Godwin role this week and soak up the targets that do not go to Evans against Lattimore.
WR DeVante Parker, MIA vs ARZ (Patrick Peterson)
The Cardinals have struggled against receivers over the past month and are allowing the 6th most fantasy points to the position. However, most of that has come from Dre Kirkpatrick and not Peterson. Peterson has only been targeted on 15% of coverage snaps this week and shut down DK Metcalf earlier this season. He may not travel with Parker across the field, but he should see a significant number of snaps lined up against him. Preston Williams against Kirkpatrick is the matchup you want to target in this game with Parker drawing the tougher coverage.
TE Hayden Hurst, ATL vs DEN
It would be easy to get excited about the targets potential with Calvin Ridley out this week, but Denver has been stingy against tight ends. They have only allowed 2 players to go over 10 fantasy points this season with the top point getter bringing in 13.6. Look for Julio Jones and others to soak up the targets this week with Hurst drawing the tough coverage this week.
TE Mike Gesicki, MIA vs ARZ
The frustrating career of Gesicki continues. He is a big and athletic tight end that Miami just does not seem to like to use. He has just 1.8 fantasy points across his past 2 games and Tua Tagovailoa did not do him any favors last week when throwing the ball. Myles Gaskin was just placed on the IR and they may have to throw the ball more this week, but the Cardinals defense has only allowed 1 tight end to score more than 9 points against them this season. Avoid Gesicki right now and possibly the rest of the season.
