This article attempts to highlight some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) as well as reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchup:
WR Jarvis Landry (CLE vs NYJ) vs Javelin Guidry
Do not read too much into the Jets beating the Rams and Guidry playing well against Cooper Kupp. There are 14 other weeks of poor coverage by that defense and Landry is clicking with Baker Mayfield right now. The Jets have allowed the most fantasy points to slot receivers over the past 2 months and Landry lines up on the inside 54% of the time. Look for Landry to be the leading receiver again this week for the Browns. Jared Goff and some curious play calling made this Jets defense look much better than it is. Start Landry with confidence this week.
WR Emmanuel Sanders (NO vs MIN) vs Cameron Dantzler
Sometimes it just takes being the last man standing for the Saints. Michael Thomas is done for the year, Drew Brees is back, and Sanders has a great matchup against a struggling Viking secondary. Dantzler has struggled with injuries and in coverage in general this season. TreQuan Smith left last week with an injury and it could be the Sanders show outside of Alvin Kamara running the ball. Look for Sanders to have one of his best games of the season this week on Christmas day.
WR Allen Robinson (CHI vs JAX) vs Chris Claybrooks
It has been Tre Herndon routinely beat on the inside and that does make Anthony Miller an interesting slot option this week, but Robinson on the outside is the proven commodity we want during Championship weekend. The Jacksonville defense ranks at or near the bottom in yards allowed, catches allowed, and touchdowns. They are weakest on the inside, but outside receivers have fared nearly as well. Mitchell Trubisky has come back to feed Robinson the ball around 7 times per game and has the benefit of a surging run game to help open things up down field. Look for big things from Robinson this week.
WR Amari Cooper (DAL vs PHI) vs Darius Slay
Another week and another time to pick on the man heavy coverage the Eagles ask of Slay. Andy Dalton seems to have finally settled in and the rushing attack got going last week behind a strong effort from Tony Pollard. Slay has been asked to travel with some of the best receivers in the game so far this year and has not done very well. Philadelphia has left him on an island to fend for himself and in turn rank in the bottom 5 in points allowed to outside receivers over the past 2 months. Slay has also dealt with some injuries over the past few weeks and could be ripe for picking on this week. Dallas is playing well at the right time and Cooper should be open all over the field this week with Slay in coverage.
WR Alshon Jeffery (PHI vs DAL) vs Chidobe Awuzie
The best thing that could have happened to Jeffery was for Jalen Hurts to take over as starter. He is getting healthy at the right time and has a touchdown catch and 2 long receptions in his past 2 games. This week he takes on a Dallas secondary that has been porous all season long. They have played better in recent weeks, but they cannot disguise their holes forever. It has been a slow season for Jeffery, who was injured for most of it, but he is coming back at a time the Eagles desperately need a wide receiver to step up. With Travis Fulgham being nonexistent in recent weeks, it will be Jeffery getting the looks on the outside. Awuzie has not been great in coverage for a Dallas defense that ranks in the bottom 5 in most pass defense stats.
WR Brandon Aiyuk (SF vs ARZ) vs Dre Kirkpatrick
There is a chance that Patrick Peterson follows Aiyuk this week, but he has not traveled with an opposing receiver in over a month and we may see that trend continue this week. Aiyuk has been the most heavily targeted 49er this season and has been on a roll for the past month. He weathered the storm of Deebo Samuel coming back and continues to produce. We saw what Tyler Lockett did to Kirkpatrick in coverage back in week 7. Do not expect that kind of results this week as Aiyuk has a lesser quarterback in Nick Mullens, but he should be very productive this week and lead the 49ers offense again.
TE T.J. Hockenson (DET vs TB):
He may have let us all down last week with his lowest fantasy output of the season, but he is in for a quick turnaround this week against the Tampa Bay defense. They have allowed 8 touchdown catches to tight ends this season and the 7th most points overall. Hockenson has been a consistent top 5 tight end this season and can be counted on again this week. If you were able to weather the storm last week, start him with confidence this week in any format.
TE Logan Thomas (Was vs CAR):
Thomas has stepped up in a big way since week 12. He has a whopping 35 targets and has scored the 4th most points since that time. He also gets a great matchup against a Carolina defense that has allowed 7 touchdowns to opposing tight ends and the 8h most fantasy points overall. Despite all the issues with Dwayne Haskins and the Washington football Team right now, Thomas is a good bet to continue his hot streak.
Unfavorable Matchup:
WR Marquise Brown (BAL vs NYG) vs James Bradberry
Playing the Giants during Championship Weekend seems like it would be an advantage. That may be the case for everyone except Brown. As the number 1 receiver for the Ravens, Brown will most likely draw the coverage of James Bradberry. Bradberry has been great in coverage and has been asked to follow some of the top receivers in the game. The Giants defense is allowing the 8th fewest fantasy points to outside receivers over the past month. This could be the week the productive streak of games ends for Brown. The Ravens are playing for their playoff life, but Brown draws the tough assignment this week.
WR Brandin Cooks (HOUS vs CIN) vs William Jackson III
Cincinnati is coming off the surprising upset of the Steelers on Monday Night and a large part of that was Von Bell and Jackson in coverage. Jackson has been one of the best on the outside and has locked up with the opposition’s top receivers on several occasions this season. Jackson is only being targeted on 15% of his coverage snaps and teams have been focusing on the other side of the field when he is in coverage. Houston does not have much to play for this week and Cooks should be started at your own risk.
WR Adam Thielen (MIN vs NO) vs Marshon Lattimore
There is a lot of recent history between these 2 teams, especially in the playoffs. The Vikings chances are on life support, but the Saints have clinched a spot. Thielen has had a mediocre season by his Pro Bowl standards and that may continue this week with Lattimore in coverage. The emergence of Justin Jefferson and the struggles of Kirk Cousins to get the ball out have played into the down season for Thielen. Lattimore has not been his normal elite self this season and has been battling injuries, but with the bad blood in this game expect for him to step up and lock down whoever he lines up across from.
WR Davante Adams (GB vs TEN) vs Malcolm Butler
We were wrong last week when talking about Marvin Jones with Butler in coverage as he ended up torching the Titans. Most of that damage came away from Butler’s coverage with more than half the yards catches and the touchdown coming on the other side. This week he will see a lot of Davante Adams. It may seem counter intuitive to downgrade Adams, but we saw last week the Packers can do just fine on offense without him. He is still a must start in any season long league but consider looking elsewhere in your daily fantasy matchups. He is still a favorite target for Aaron Rodgers, but it may be a down week compared to what he has done so far this season.
WR A.J. Brown (TEN vs GB) vs Jaire Alexander
The Packers have not asked Alexander to follow any receiver for the past several weeks, but this matchup is the perfect opportunity to do so. Kevin King could see a lot of the taller Corey Davis on the other side and that would leave Brown on Alexander. This would not be a favorable matchup for Brown as Alexander has been a top 5 cover corner all season long and shuts down most players who line up across from him. Aside from a down game against Adam Thielen earlier this year, Alexander has not allowed a receiver to go over 50 yards against him. Both Brown and Davis have been hot in recent weeks, but that streak may end for Brown against Alexander.
WR DK Metcalf (SEA vs LAR) vs Jalen Ramsey
Despite the letdown for the Rams last week this could be a preview of a playoff matchup down the road. The Rams defeated the Seahawks back in week 10 and Ramsey was asked to follow Metcalf. He held him to 9 total yards on 3 targets when in coverage. That is elite coverage for any corner against a bigtime receiver. Do not expect Metcalf to be under 10 yards again, but it should be a slow week in a tough Matchup for Metcalf. Look for Russell Wilson to push the ball to other targets this week with Metcalf getting a fraction of his normal production.
TE Evan Engram (NYG vs BAL):
At this point it is time to completely cut ties with Engram. He has underwhelmed all season long and has a string of very poor games over the past 3 weeks. The Giants offense should feature him, but they cannot seem to get him the ball. Couple his poor production with a very tough matchup against a Baltimore defense that has only allowed 5 touchdowns to tight ends and it is easy to avoid him this week if you have not already dropped him. The tight end position may be very thin but there are other options this week.
TE Rob Gronkowski (TB vs DET):
Gronkowski had some very productive games in the middle of the season, but Tampa Bay is finally healthy at wide receiver and is getting production from Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, and Chris Godwin. This has left Gronkowski out in the cold the past few weeks and he has failed to score more than 7 points in 3 of his last 4 matchups. The Detroit defense has been good against tight ends as well this season and it is time to look elsewhere from Gronkowski.
