4 Tier Break Strategies to Exploit Running Back Value

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Each fantasy position is its own ecosystem of value. Format plays a part as does unique scoring. However, navigating a draft (or trade value environment) ultimately comes down to players, tiers, and where are the key zones to exploit the best values. Here is a look at the 2020 running back landscape, highlighting the key players and tier breaks:

*Using the Running Back Consensus values available as of publication*

Strategy 1: The James Conner Threshold

As much as talent, fantasy drafters are looking for and projecting roles and a floor of usage for running backs. There are sub-tiers by the James Conner zone, but he represents a known role and usage for the outset of the season. With 18-24 running backs off the board, Conner sits as a threshold where having at least two backs rostered bolsters the comfort and floor of the position for a team.

Minimal Questions

• Christian McCaffrey
• Saquon Barkley
• Ezekiel Elliott
• Alvin Kamara
• Joe Mixon
• Josh Jacobs
• Miles Sanders
• Leonard Fournette
• Todd Gurley
• LeVeon Bell
• James Conner

Some Questions

• Derrick Henry (receiving upside?)
• Nick Chubb (Kareem Hunt limits receiving upside)
• Kenyan Drake (minimal profile of higher-level touches for long dating back to college)
• Austin Ekeler (PPR-optimizer Philip Rivers gone, size for a high workload?)
• Aaron Jones (power run game transition? committee risk worth the price?)
• Melvin Gordon (lost 2019, committee risk worth the price?)

Bigger Questions

• Dalvin Cook (holdout declaration)
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire (reduced ramp-up to the season, the potential for committee backfield)
• Chris Carson (injury recovery checkpoint)
• David Johnson (back to former self health-wise?)
• Devin Singletary (projecting an unquestioned lead role after committee in 2019 as sub-sized back)

Tier Strategy-Favorite Values

Ideally, drafters are picking from this group to collect multiple starters unless having a strong take from the upcoming Kerryon Johnson Threshold options for depth chart clarity or building an RB2 by committee. Having two of the "Minimal Questions" subset is a luxury start to a backfield fantasy draft build.

Having a top draft position is ideal with Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Ezekiel Elliott a prized top-3. Also appealing with a top draft position is getting a look at Miles Sanders, Leonard Fournette, and Todd Gurley types at the Round 2/3 turn to pick up a second predictable start cornerstone back.

LeVeon Bell in the RB15-20 range of draft position is an ideal value target. He is priced at his reasonable floor considering the unquestioned role and usage and how last season with one of the weakest quarterback situations in the NFL with Sam Darnold out for a chunk of the season and yet was still a top-20 PPR back.

Strategy 2: The Kerryon Johnson Threshold

This collection, spanning to Kerryon Johnson in the RB35-40 range, represents options that do not need an injury to produce well and even control a backfield in the best case. However, there are roadblocks to these best-case scenarios playing out with a significant percentage of outcomes being a muddy committee or even the backfield going against these players. These backs are best in the RB3+ position or a discount RB2 type committee for team constructions centering more on elite receivers and possibly a tight end or quarterback. Here are the most interesting options and storylines inside of the threshold line:

• Jonathan Taylor, Marlon Mack (backfield points to a committee to open but fumbling by Taylor or Taylor proving to be the superior talent could shift the workload extremely either way without an injury to either)
• Raheem Mostert (high upside for the 49ers backfield if there is usage predictability week-to-week to benefit)
• David Montgomery (Tarik Cohen to siphon plenty of receiving work, will quarterback play be any better than 2019?)
• Cam Akers (see Colts situation above but Darrell Henderson cheaper than Marlon Mack)
• Kerryon Johnson, DAndre Swift (committee likelihood, Round 2 pedigree for both)
• Mark Ingram, J.K. Dobbins (plenty of rushing attempts to distribute, RB1 upside for either having the advantage as 1A option)
• Ronald Jones II, KeShawn Vaughn (Jones inside track as a Round 2 veteran, many assume Vaughn will surpass Jones with ease)
• Sony Michel, James White (more than mid-low RB2 upside for any Patriots running back?)
• Derrius Guice (health is a major factor, how much of the backfield will he garner with a healthy stretch?)
• Damien Williams (big upside if Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a slow rookie starter, but also low floor)
• Kareem Hunt (one of the most talented backfield in the NFL with Nick Chubb, hurts both of their upsides)

Tier Strategy-Favorite Values

This tier offers alluring impact potential if, as the Indiana Jones quote goes, you choose wisely, but also shoulder-shrug production and more questions for lineups than definitive weeks at their lowest point of confidence.

Looking towards high-end rookie runners has plenty of upside to fuel fantasy success, especially later in the season (see a Nick Chubb-like trajectory from an efficient committee option early in the season to impact player by the fantasy playoff push). Patience is required as a result, but the rewards are title-worthy. Jonathan Taylor and Cam Akers are the notably priced in the top-30 of the position but offer easier paths due to their talent and depth chart for strong roles by midseason. Ideally, they are drafted as RB3 types or paired with sturdier (albeit lower upside) veterans to allow them to simmer until their opportunities bloom.

Kareem Hunt is one of the more unique running backs in all of fantasy with his RB2-level PPR production last season even with a successful Nick Chubb sharing the backfield. Hunt is priced around his floor (RB25-35), can be used as a de facto RB2, yet has top-5 upside if Nick Chubb were to miss time.

Strategy 3: The Injury Benefactor Tier

This tier is the 'outside looking in' backs in general, who need an injury to clarify the backfield and fuel their own lineup viability:

• Jordan Howard, Matt Breida
• Zack Moss
• Latavius Murray
• Alexander Mattison
• Boston Scott
• Tony Pollard
• A.J. Dillon
• Chase Edmonds
• Darrynton Evans
• Justin Jackson, Joshua Kelley
• Ryquell Armstead
• Giovani Bernard

Tier Strategy-Favorite Values

Alexander Mattison has the added boost of Dalvin Cook's holdout to boost his probabilities of predictable starts and production (and an expected rising draft position the longer Cook's holdout creeps toward Week 1). The Miami backfield is another unique listing here with Jordan Howard and Matt Breida both viable options previous to 2020 and their committee pointing towards either direction if either is at or near their career-best.

Shooting for the moon in this tier is an absolute must. As they will largely be taking up a valuable roster spot with minimal chance to see a fantasy lineup unless there is an injury. Latavius Murray was the No.1 overall running back for the short stint Alvin Kamara was out in 2019 as an ideal example. Tony Pollard fits a similar mold in Dallas. Chase Edmonds is a close third with the potential for the Arizona offense.

Strategy 4: The Perfect Storm Tier

These final options are talented enough to take advantage if a depth chart turns their direction. They may need multiple injuries or twists to get enough volume for fantasy football impact.

• Rashaad Penny (recovering from injury, Carlos Hyde added, Chris Carson with the inside track if healthy himself)
• Antonio Gibson (could be between positions, Derrius Guice health dependent...for now, Adrian Peterson still a higher volume threat)
• Carlos Hyde (still fuel in the tank, could be perfect storm if Chris Carson slow out of the gate and Rashaad Penny likely later-season role)
• Devonta Freeman (still free agent but can take advantage of major injury leading up to season or in-season)
• Adrian Peterson (could be high volume if Derrius Guice is not durable for a third straight season)
• Damien Harris (Day 2 pedigree, redshirt-type rookie season, Sony Michel durability question mark)
• Lamar Miller (still free agent but can take advantage of major injury leading up to season or in-season)

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