Photo: Imagn Images

In June’s dynasty trade value chart article, we take a step back to look at some of the most important big picture trends at each position and how we can take advantage of them to better our dynasty teams. We will also add the 2020 rookie players to our positional value charts. Lastly, we will take a look ahead at how to value 2021 rookie picks and give a short preview of what that class will look like next spring.

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.

Quarterback

Big Picture: Youth Movement

Part of the reason that the quarterback trade market in typical start one quarterback dynasty leagues has been so depressed in recent years was that most of the top fantasy options were older guys. As you can see above, the average age of the Top 12 fantasy quarterbacks had been hovering around 30. The choice often seemed to be grabbing an older passer who could give you a few strong years or rolling the dice on a young guy with less immediate benefit (or some combination of the two).

However, we saw a real changing of the guard last season with Patrick Mahomes winning the Super Bowl and Lamar Jackson winning MVP. In fantasy, the average age of the Top 12 dropped all the way down to 26-years old. That could skew even younger in 2020. In fact, in our 2020 fantasy projections, each of the top four quarterbacks is 25 or younger. Plus, Dak Prescott (27), Josh Allen (24), Daniel Jones (23), and Joe Burrow (23) aren’t too far behind.

What the big picture means to you

With this new generation of superstar quarterbacks, it is worth re-evaluating whether “late-round quarterback” is still the way to go in dynasty. We now have plenty of options to get top fantasy production both in the short-term and many years into the future. That is worth paying for, especially when the relative depth at other positions (especially wide receiver) has improved. In this context, many of these top young quarterbacks are undervalued right now in dynasty.

For example, Deshaun Watson is currently going off the board in the 6th round of 12-team dynasty startups. This is a guy who is only 24-years old and has been nothing but impressive in each of the last six seasons (going back to his Clemson days). The fact that he has proven so much at such a young age should make him a hotter commodity than he is in dynasty leagues.

Quick Hits

No rookie draft bargains in Superflex

We are not getting a big discount on Justin Herbert like we did with Daniel Jones and Josh Allen — two similar players who were going mid-2nd round in most Superflex rookie drafts. Herbert has been going in the mid-late first round, which is maybe a little high but about where he belongs based upon his athleticism and draft capital.

Is everyone lying?

Based upon the Twitter replies to Jay Glazer’s report that Taysom Hill is the future in New Orleans, the consensus from the fantasy community seems to be that everyone is lying. “No smokescreen, he’s the guy,” Glazer said. “Sean Payton loves him but it's not just him, the whole team loves him, not just Sean Payton. When he's in the game, watch the other players on the sideline, watch their reaction. They all get up and stand on the sidelines to watch him. I think Sean was always hoping to unleash him on the league without anyone seeing him before but now we’ve seen it with Lamar Jackson. He’s a bigger Lamar Jackson.”

It is easy to understand the skepticism but the advice here remains that it is worth the price to grab Hill now, be patient, and find out in 2021 if the hype ends up being real. Even in Superflex, you can still get him for a future third-round rookie pick or in the 15th round of a startup. At that price point, it is such a low-risk roll of the dice, that the downside in almost non-existent and it could payoff in a big way if he is the 2021 Saints starter. This is a guy who ran a 4.44 forty and has been touted as one of the Saints fastest players, regardless of position.

Running Back

Big Picture

It has been amazing to see how quickly things have flipped from wide receivers dominating the top of startup drafts to running backs dominating. Here is a line graph showing the dynasty ADP of the RB12 and WR12 over the past six summers:

Photos provided by Imagn Images