The focus of July’s dynasty trade value article will be analyzing redraft ADP to see if we can uncover some hidden dynasty value. The idea is to imagine the dynasty consequences if we use current redraft ADP (wisdom of the crowd) as our assumption for 2020 production. We did this last offseason and we will look back at that analysis to help us find more strong dynasty targets.
The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.
Dynasty Strategy
If I had to sum up my overall dynasty strategy in two words it would be: Win young.
Let’s quickly expand on that idea because it will be the focus of this month’s article. In general, my two goals in a dynasty startup draft are:
- Putting together a roster that is capable of making the playoffs and competing for a title in Year One.
- Assembling the youngest team possible with a real focus on long-term player values.
Admittedly, those two goals are a bit contradictory on the surface and there is some friction between the two. Occasionally, there are times where you have to choose between the first and second (in which case my focus is on goal #2). However, there are always opportunities to achieve both at the same time. One of the best methods to ferret out those opportunities is simply to aggressively target the young players who have a similar ADP in both redraft and dynasty. In many cases, we can even find very young players who are going earlier in high-stakes redraft leagues than they are in dynasty drafts. We should quickly jump on these opportunities when they arise.
In five years of writing this article, the number of mentions of my own dynasty teams could be counted on one hand. However, I do want to break from the normal format briefly to give just one example of the strategy of “win young” in actual practice. One of my teams made the finals in Year One with only one player (George Kittle) over the age of 23. The roster was built almost entirely around players (Kyler Murray, Josh Jacobs, Chris Godwin, etc.) that were featured in last June’s dynasty trade value article about leveraging redraft ADP. Each of those players was 23 or younger and going higher in redraft leagues than dynasty startups at this time last offseason.
Let’s look at the 2019 version of this article, Chris Godwin was the very first player highlighted on this topic, to set the table for what we are looking for:
It hasn’t been my intention to talk about Chris Godwin every single month this offseason but he keeps popping up as a bargain. Godwin is being drafted as the WR20 in redraft leagues and has a current dynasty ADP of WR23. The gap isn’t huge but it is noteworthy when you consider he is just 23-years old. How often do we have the opportunity to acquire a 23-year old wide receiver at a lower cost in dynasty than in redraft?
Sometimes a successful “win young” strategy is as simple as that. Target the young players who can help you win right now.
“Win now” versus “build for the future” is a false choice because if we are smart about it, we can do both.
Now, let’s go position-by-position and see if we can leverage the current high-stakes FFPC redraft ADP to find some “win young” players to target in trades and startup drafts.
Quarterback
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Superflex
|
Single-QB
|
|
1
|
65
|
30
|
|
|
2
|
58
|
28
|
|
|
3
|
45
|
20
|
|
|
4
|
38
|
15
|
|
|
5
|
38
|
15
|
|
|
6
|
30
|
11
|
|
|
7
|
30
|
10
|
|
|
8
|
30
|
10
|
|
|
9
|
28
|
9
|
|
|
10
|
26
|
8
|
|
|
11
|
26
|
8
|
|
|
12
|
21
|
7
|
|
|
13
|
19
|
6
|
|
|
14
|
19
|
6
|
|
|
15
|
18
|
6
|
|
|
16
|
17
|
5
|
|
|
17
|
17
|
4
|
|
|
18
|
16
|
4
|
|
|
19
|
16
|
4
|
|
|
20
|
16
|
4
|
|
|
21
|
15
|
4
|
|
|
22
|
15
|
4
|
|
|
23
|
14
|
4
|
|
|
24
|
14
|
4
|
|
|
25
|
12
|
3
|
|
|
26
|
10
|
3
|
|
|
27
|
9
|
3
|
|
|
28
|
9
|
3
|
|
|
29
|
6
|
2
|
|
|
30
|
6
|
1
|
|
|
31
|
6
|
1
|
|
|
32
|
6
|
1
|
|
|
33
|
6
|
1
|
|
|
34
|
6
|
2
|
|
|
35
|
6
|
1
|
|
|
36
|
Mitchell Trubisky
|
5
|
1
|
|
37
|
5
|
1
|
|
|
38
|
4
|
2
|
|
|
39
|
4
|
1
|
|
|
40
|
4
|
1
|
Leveraging Redraft ADP
The biggest dynasty takeaway in studying FFPC redraft ADP at the quarterback position is more confirmation of the theory proposed here last month that “many of these top young quarterbacks are undervalued right now in dynasty.”
Why is that statement confirmed by the redraft ADP?
The average age of the Top 5 redraft quarterbacks is 23.8 years old.
Given that context, it is obvious the top of the dynasty board is nearly identical to the top of the redraft board. The only difference is that Lamar Jackson is going slightly above Patrick Mahomes II in redraft and slightly behind him in dynasty. Otherwise, the order and makeup of the top five is exactly the same in both formats.
This is a rare opportunity to lock in a nice short-term advantage at a position while also having the potential to maintain that advantage for the next decade and the cost is not exorbitant. At quarterback, it is clear that there is no tension between “win now” and “build for the future.”
Looking Back to 2019
The last time we did this redraft versus dynasty ADP exercise in June of 2019, the following case was made for Kyler Murray:
It might surprise some dynasty players to find out that Kyler Murray’s DRAFT ADP is QB9 and 100th overall. Russell Wilson is QB8 and has an ADP of 97. Drew Brees is also going in the exact same range at 95th overall (QB7). Murray, at 21-years old, is 19 years younger than Brees and 9 years younger than Wilson. The nearly identical redraft ADP and 9-year age gap with Wilson is especially interesting to note since Wilson is a consensus Top-5 dynasty quarterback and very few seem willing to grab Murray anywhere near that high in startup Superflex drafts, where he has an ADP of QB11.
Murray ended up being another great example of how we can spot potential dynasty values by using sharp redraft ADP combined with player ages to look for outliers. The big dynasty value gap from Wilson down to Murray at this time last year has flipped. Murray is currently the QB3.
2020 QB Targets
Deshaun Watson
There is not a huge opportunity in terms of positional ADP because Watson is QB5 in both redraft and dynasty. However, as highlighted above, the idea is that these young quarterbacks are not being properly valued in one-quarterback dynasty leagues. It is more interesting to compare across positions.
Deshaun Watson has an FFPC ADP of 63rd overall while DeVante Parker has an FFPC ADP of 72nd overall. Our takeaway should be that Watson has more short-term value than Parker. Given that Watson is also three years younger and plays a position with a longer lifespan, it seems logical to believe Watson should carry a higher dynasty valuation than Parker. However, that is not the case. For some reason, Watson’s higher short-term value and higher long-term value still have him going off the board after Parker according to recent dynasty ADP.
Watson’s overall dynasty ADP (65th) is actually higher than his FFPC ADP (62nd) despite the fact he should be able to extend his short-term value well out into the future. Drafting Deshaun Watson in the 6th-round of a dynasty startup is the perfect example of an opportunity to “win young.” You aren’t taking a short-term hit at all drafting Watson in the 60s but you are also putting yourself in a great position long-term with a proven 24-year old franchise QB.
Lamar Jackson
We can make the exact same case for Lamar Jackson. The 23-year old has identical ADPs in both redraft (21st overall) and dynasty (21st overall). There has been almost a stigma attached to using an early-round non-Superflex dynasty pick on a quarterback (“fish move”) in recent years. While there are some running backs who are slightly better 2nd-round startup targets than Jackson (see below), targeting Jackson in the late-2nd of a dynasty startup is actually a strong “win young” move. Smart owners should be flexible with their dynasty strategy and not stick with the same script in terms of positional strategy year after yar.
Plus, many do not fully appreciate how dominant Jackson’s 2019 season (at age 22) truly was. It may be due to the fact that his combination of rushing and passing production is harder to contextualize compared to if he had just thrown for an absurd number of yards. To help put it into context, we can convert Jackson’s rushing yardage to its fantasy equivalent in passing yards. When we do so, it becomes clear just how ridiculous his 2020 season was:
My favorite Lamar Jackson stat:
— Dan Hindery (@Hindery) June 5, 2020
in 16 games last year (playoff included), he put up the fantasy equivalent of 6,882 passing yards
(in leagues that give .04 per passing yard and .1 per rushing yard, rushing yards are worth 2.5x more than passing yards)
Daniel Jones
As noted, there are not many obvious bargain options like we had with Murray last season. From the age versus ADP perspective, there is one slight outlier, however. Daniel Jones, at age 23, is the QB14 in both redraft and dynasty. If Jones does put up a fringe QB1 season in 2020 (as his ADP would suggest), his value will get a nice boost in the next 12 months. It is somewhat surprising to still see Aaron Rodgers (age 36) going off the board ahead of Jones in dynasty ADP given that their redraft ADPs are almost identical (Rodgers 103rd overall and Jones 109th overall). Just based on age and redraft ADP, Jones should be a strong buy.
There is an equally strong argument to discount the age factor in this specific case, however. Jameis Winston is 26-years old and already out of a starting job because he turned the ball over too much. In his 12 starts last season, Jones averaged 1.0 INTs and 1.0 lost fumbles per game. That is a full-season pace of 32 turnovers. If Jones does not make major progress in that area of his game, he will likely find himself in the same boat as Winston by the end of his rookie contract.
Whether you view Jones as a buy or sell should be entirely dependent upon how confident you are in his ability to fix the turnover problems. If he does, he is a Top 10 dynasty quarterback.
Cam is Back
June was a very light month in terms of NFL news but ended with one bombshell — Cam Newton signed with the Patriots. While this will be billed as a competition between Newton and Jarrett Stidham, the starting job is Newton’s to lose. Landing with New England was a best-case scenario for Newton. Bill Belichick and his staff have shown a tremendous ability to fit their scheme to the personnel and should be able to design a productive offense around Newton’s skill set.
In terms of trade value, Newton has already been traded in a few of my leagues since the signing. The going rate seems to be a mid-late future 1st-round pick (or the equivalent) in Superflex leagues. That feels about right. Compared to the other quarterbacks in the same general value and age range (Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Tannehill, etc.), Newton fits in that group from an overall value perspective despite the fact his risk/reward profile is way different. We know he has proven Top-5 fantasy quarterback upside (five high-end QB1 fantasy seasons), which is more than we can say about those other quarterbacks. He also comes with a good bit more risk, however. We can say with some confidence that guys like Cousins and Garoppolo are still going to be productive, starting NFL quarterbacks in a few years. Given the mounting injury issues and multiple shoulder surgeries, we cannot say the same of Newton with any confidence. Whether you view Newton as a buy or sell comes down to both your personal risk tolerance and confidence in his health.
Running Back
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Value
|
|
1
|
64
|
|
|
2
|
60
|
|
|
3
|
45
|
|
|
4
|
43
|
|
|
5
|
40
|
|
|
6
|
39
|
|
|
7
|
38
|
|
|
8
|
38
|
|
|
9
|
37
|
|
|
10
|
35
|
|
|
11
|
35
|
|
|
12
|
30
|
|
|
13
|
29
|
|
|
14
|
DAndre Swift
|
28
|
|
15
|
28
|
|
|
16
|
27
|
|
|
17
|
22
|
|
|
18
|
19
|
|
|
19
|
18
|
|
|
20
|
Melvin Gordon
|
16
|
|
21
|
15
|
|
|
22
|
15
|
|
|
23
|
14
|
|
|
24
|
KeShawn Vaughn
|
13
|
|
25
|
13
|
|
|
26
|
12
|
|
|
27
|
12
|
|
|
28
|
LeVeon Bell
|
11
|
|
29
|
11
|
|
|
30
|
A.J. Dillon
|
11
|
|
31
|
10
|
|
|
32
|
9
|
|
|
33
|
8
|
|
|
34
|
8
|
|
|
35
|
7
|
|
|
36
|
7
|
|
|
37
|
7
|
|
|
38
|
Darrell Henderson
|
6
|
|
39
|
6
|
|
|
40
|
6
|
|
|
41
|
Mark Ingram
|
6
|
|
42
|
6
|
|
|
43
|
6
|
|
|
44
|
6
|
|
|
45
|
5
|
|
|
46
|
5
|
|
|
47
|
5
|
|
|
48
|
5
|
|
|
49
|
5
|
|
|
50
|
5
|
|
|
51
|
5
|
|
|
52
|
5
|
|
|
53
|
4
|
|
|
54
|
4
|
|
|
55
|
4
|
|
|
56
|
3
|
|
|
57
|
3
|
|
|
58
|
Lamical Perine
|
3
|
|
59
|
2
|
|
|
60
|
2
|
Leveraging Redraft ADP at RB
Given how young nearly all of the top running backs are and the premium being placed on the position in dynasty startups, there are less obviously exploitable values at the running back position this year than in years past. However, there are a few players who stand out in terms of being both very young and also going off the board in the FFPC earlier than their dynasty ADP.
Looking back to 2019
Last offseason’s article highlighted Josh Jacobs as a “win young” opportunity:
Jacobs is going higher in best ball drafts (31st overall) than in dynasty startups (38th overall). This isn’t something you see every day when you are talking about a 21-year old. Given the Oakland depth chart and how sold everyone in the Raiders organization is on Jacobs, it would be a surprise if he doesn’t put up RB2 fantasy numbers as a rookie. He won’t turn 22-years old until next offseason, so he is a good bet to see a nice jump in dynasty trade value between now and next spring.
Jacobs’s ADP has shot up from 38th overall to 10th over the last 12 months. As a fourth-round dynasty startup pick last offseason, he gave you immediate “win now” production and you should feel good about his ability to keep doing so over at least the medium-term.
2020 RB Targets
Miles Sanders
The higher the stakes, the higher Miles Sanders is being drafted in early redraft leagues this summer. At least anecdotally and from the sampling of real drafts I have seen, Sanders is going off the board surprisingly high in big money leagues. It is not uncommon to see Sanders go off the board 5th or 6th overall in $350 FFPC drafts. In that format, his ADP has bounced between 8th and 10th overall during the last month.
We have already seen Sanders’ dynasty ADP steadily creep up each month from 30 to 25 and now all the way up to 15th overall.
Even at his currently elevated prices, Sanders still looks like a strong “win young” option. Despite being just 23-years old, his redraft ADP is half a round higher than his dynasty ADP.
The fact Sanders is entering just his second season has to be emphasized because we know running backs age very quickly. We have seen with guys like Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, and David Johnson just how short a running back’s prime can be. Thus, the two-year experience gap between Sanders and the 2017 backs (Mixon, Cook, Kamara, Fournette, etc.) is a much bigger deal than it would be at a different position.
Remember, we are trying to think logically about the dynasty outcome if the high-stakes redraft ADP is accurate. From that perspective, if Sanders’ 2020 production matches what would be expected from a mid-1st round redraft pick, his dynasty stock will certainly go up. With a strong season, he will leapfrog some of the fourth and fifth-year running backs that are currently being drafted ahead of him in dynasty value.
Devin Singletary
Singletary is a fascinating dynasty prospect. At least on paper, he looks like a buy given his redraft ADP of RB23, which exactly matches his dynasty ADP. Given that Singletary is just 22-years old, that looks like an attractive value proposition. Zach Moss is still lurking in the background and dragging down Singletary’s dynasty value but the high-stakes drafters seem to be slightly less worried about Moss than dynasty drafters. If Singletary does put up solid RB2 numbers and strengthens his hold on the lead role in Buffalo, he will be going off the board earlier in 2021 than his current late-5th round dynasty ADP.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Edwards-Helaire does not fit neatly into our paradigm because he is actually being drafted higher in dynasty (RB8) than he is in redraft (RB14). However, he still qualifies because his 2nd-round redraft ADP points to a player very much capable of helping you win now. At age 21 and given the surrounding young talent in the Chiefs offense, his longer-term upside is through the roof. Using early-round startup picks on rookies does add slightly to the risk but can also pay off handsomely if the rookie hits. If Edwards-Helaire has the type of season that justifies his 21st-overall FFPC ADP, he will be a top-5 overall pick in dynasty startups next summer. Edwards-Helaire is my favorite 2nd-round startup target and represents the type of calculated risk that can help you win now while also building a powerhouse future roster.
Wide Receiver
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Value
|
|
1
|
47
|
|
|
2
|
39
|
|
|
3
|
39
|
|
|
4
|
39
|
|
|
5
|
36
|
|
|
6
|
D.J. Moore
|
34
|
|
7
|
33
|
|
|
8
|
30
|
|
|
9
|
30
|
|
|
10
|
29
|
|
|
11
|
Odell Beckham
|
28
|
|
12
|
27
|
|
|
13
|
Allen Robinson
|
25
|
|
14
|
24
|
|
|
15
|
24
|
|
|
16
|
22
|
|
|
17
|
21
|
|
|
18
|
21
|
|
|
19
|
20
|
|
|
20
|
20
|
|
|
21
|
19
|
|
|
22
|
19
|
|
|
23
|
D.J. Chark
|
19
|
|
24
|
18
|
|
|
25
|
17
|
|
|
26
|
17
|
|
|
27
|
16
|
|
|
28
|
16
|
|
|
29
|
16
|
|
|
30
|
15
|
|
|
31
|
15
|
|
|
32
|
15
|
|
|
33
|
Henry Ruggs
|
14
|
|
34
|
14
|
|
|
35
|
13
|
|
|
36
|
13
|
|
|
37
|
13
|
|
|
38
|
12
|
|
|
39
|
NKeal Harry
|
11
|
|
40
|
11
|
|
|
41
|
Will Fuller
|
11
|
|
42
|
Michael Pittman
|
11
|
|
43
|
11
|
|
|
44
|
Mecole Hardman
|
11
|
|
45
|
10
|
|
|
46
|
10
|
|
|
47
|
10
|
|
|
48
|
Laviska Shenault
|
9
|
|
49
|
Darius Slayton
|
9
|
|
50
|
9
|
|
|
51
|
8
|
|
|
52
|
8
|
|
|
53
|
8
|
|
|
54
|
8
|
|
|
55
|
7
|
|
|
56
|
Marvin Jones
|
7
|
|
57
|
6
|
|
|
58
|
6
|
|
|
59
|
Robby Anderson
|
6
|
|
60
|
6
|
|
|
61
|
6
|
|
|
62
|
5
|
|
|
63
|
5
|
|
|
64
|
5
|
|
|
65
|
5
|
|
|
66
|
5
|
|
|
67
|
5
|
|
|
68
|
5
|
|
|
69
|
4
|
|
|
70
|
4
|
|
|
71
|
4
|
|
|
72
|
4
|
|
|
73
|
4
|
|
|
74
|
K.J. Hamler
|
4
|
|
75
|
3
|
|
|
76
|
2
|
|
|
77
|
2
|
|
|
78
|
2
|
|
|
79
|
2
|
|
|
80
|
2
|
Leveraging Redraft ADP
This offseason, there is no position where it is easier to build a "win young" roster than at wide receiver. We are flooded with opportunities to draft extremely young wide receivers who can make an instant impact. These are the types of players who can not only help get your team into the 2020 playoffs but could potentially help you win your 2027 championship as well.
Looking back to 2019
Chris Godwin was already highlighted above and provides the best example of the type of “win young” player we want to target. Tyler Lockett did not smash ADP like Godwin but was another featured player last year who panned out:
There is also a big gap for Tyler Lockett, who is WR29 in dynasty ADP and WR21 in redraft. He is locked in on a long-term deal paired with Russell Wilson in Seattle and seems to improve every season. At age 26, he is just entering his prime and is a great target if you are looking for WR2 fantasy production over the medium-term at a relatively low price.
Lockett did indeed provide WR2 production (WR13 overall) in 2019 and has seen his dynasty ADP rise a couple of spots as well (from WR29 to WR27). You get the best of both worlds when you can hit on productive younger players.
2020 WR Targets
Marquise Brown
Brown fits the mold of exactly what we are looking for. He is going off the board higher in FFPC Drafts (WR28) than he is in dynasty startup drafts (WR33). Plus, Brown just turned 23-years old a few weeks ago. Getting Marquise Brown in the late 6th-round of a dynasty startup (or 8th round in Superflex) cou
