January is one of the slowest months on the dynasty calendar. Startup season is a month or two from really getting rolling and trading slows to a crawl in all but the most active leagues. Now is a good time to really start looking ahead to the rookie class. We now know exactly what rookie picks we own, so the dynasty trade value chart will go into more detail about how much each specific pick (1.01, 1.02, etc.) is worth instead of just listing them in groups (early-1st, mid-1st, etc.). We can also start the process of putting some names to the picks to help us hone in on the true value of each rookie selection. It is also the time of year where we want to start thinking about how the incoming draft class might impact the veterans on our roster. Trading a vulnerable veteran before his team drafts a rookie at his position and dents his value can help you avoid some of the negative impacts of NFL draft weekend on your dynasty roster.
The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column for the quarterbacks. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.
As always, feel free to hit me up with dynasty trade or strategy questions via email (hindery@footballguys) or on twitter (@hindery).
2020 Rookie Picks
First, a quick disclaimer: Take the names of the players listed below with a grain of salt. It is early January. There are still some underclassmen who have not made a decision, so the list of top players could change slightly. Plus, the draft stock of the individual players will go up and down between now and April. Lastly, there will be another huge shuffling of the board once we see the landing spots on draft weekend.
So why even list names at this point if there is so much guesswork involved?
My belief is that it is important to start the process of putting names next to picks at this time of year (or earlier) if you are thinking about making trades involving rookie picks. It gives you a better feel of which player you are potentially giving up (or getting) with the pick.
Putting names out there should also help visualize the positional possibilities. The first round should be a pretty even split between running backs and wide receivers (in non-Superflex), with the top four or five running backs likely to move towards the earlier part of the first round after the NFL landing spots are known. In Superflex leagues, adding the four or five first-round quarterbacks to the mix will push some great rookie running backs and wide receivers down into the second round of our rookie drafts.
Rookie Mock and Trade Values
|
Pick
|
Pos
|
Player
|
College
|
Value
|
|
1.01
|
WR
|
Jerry Jeudy
|
Alabama
|
30
|
|
1.02
|
RB
|
D'Andre Swift
|
Georgia
|
27
|
|
1.03
|
WR
|
CeeDee Lamb
|
Oklahoma
|
24
|
|
1.04
|
RB
|
Travis Etienne
|
Clemson
|
22
|
|
1.05
|
RB
|
J.K. Dobbins
|
Ohio State
|
20
|
|
1.06
|
RB
|
Jonathan Taylor
|
Wisconsin
|
18
|
|
1.07
|
RB
|
Najee Harris
|
Alabama
|
16
|
|
1.08
|
WR
|
Tee Higgins
|
Clemson
|
14
|
|
1.09
|
WR
|
Henry Ruggs
|
Alabama
|
13
|
|
1.1
|
WR
|
Laviska Shenault
|
Colorado
|
12
|
|
1.11
|
RB
|
Cam Akers
|
Florida State
|
11
|
|
1.12
|
WR
|
Justin Jefferson
|
LSU
|
11
|
|
2.01
|
RB
|
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
|
LSU
|
10
|
|
2.02
|
WR
|
K.J. Hamler
|
Penn State
|
9
|
|
2.03
|
RB
|
Zack Moss
|
Utah
|
8
|
|
2.04
|
TE
|
Brycen Hopkins
|
Purdue
|
8
|
|
2.05
|
TE
|
Cole Kmet
|
Notre Dame
|
7
|
|
2.06
|
TE
|
Hunter Bryant
|
Washington
|
7
|
|
2.07
|
WR
|
Brandon Aiyuk
|
Arizona State
|
7
|
|
2.08
|
WR
|
Jalen Reagor
|
TCU
|
6
|
|
2.09
|
RB
|
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
|
Vanderbilt
|
6
|
|
2.1
|
QB
|
Joe Burrow
|
LSU
|
6
|
|
2.11
|
WR
|
Gabriel Davis
|
UCF
|
6
|
|
2.12
|
WR
|
Michael Pittman
|
USC
|
5
|
|
Early- to Mid-Third-Round Players
|
||||
|
|
WR
|
K.J. Hill
|
Ohio State
|
5
|
|
|
RB
|
Kylin Hill
|
Mississippi State
|
5
|
|
|
WR
|
Lynn Bowden
|
Kentucky
|
5
|
|
|
WR
|
Donovan Peoples-Jones
|
Michigan
|
5
|
|
|
WR
|
Devin Duvernay
|
Texas
|
5
|
|
|
RB
|
Eno Benjamin
|
Arizona State
|
5
|
|
Other Third-Round Players
|
4
|
|||
The early read is that 2020 could potentially be a “rich get richer” draft because there is not as much separation as usual between the top picks (mostly owned by bad teams) and the mid-late first-round picks (mostly owned by strong teams). That is not because the draft is lacking top prospects, either. The top of the draft looks slightly stronger than normal. It is more about what is shaping up to be a draft deep with top-end talents, transforming even those later first-round picks into premium assets.
Superflex Mock and Trade Values
|
Pick
|
Pos
|
Player
|
College
|
Value
|
|
1.01
|
WR
|
Jerry Jeudy
|
Alabama
|
30
|
|
1.02
|
RB
|
D'Andre Swift
|
Georgia
|
27
|
|
1.03
|
QB
|
Joe Burrow
|
LSU
|
26
|
|
1.04
|
WR
|
CeeDee Lamb
|
Oklahoma
|
24
|
|
1.05
|
RB
|
Travis Etienne
|
Clemson
|
22
|
|
1.06
|
RB
|
J.K. Dobbins
|
Ohio State
|
20
|
|
1.07
|
QB
|
Tua Tagovailoa
|
Alabama
|
20
|
|
1.08
|
RB
|
Jonathan Taylor
|
Wisconsin
|
18
|
|
1.09
|
RB
|
Najee Harris
|
Alabama
|
16
|
|
1.1
|
WR
|
Tee Higgins
|
Clemson
|
14
|
|
1.11
|
WR
|
Henry Ruggs
|
Alabama
|
13
|
|
1.12
|
QB
|
Justin Herbert
|
Oregon
|
12
|
|
2.01
|
WR
|
Laviska Shenault
|
Colorado
|
12
|
|
2.02
|
RB
|
Cam Akers
|
Florida State
|
11
|
|
2.03
|
WR
|
Justin Jefferson
|
LSU
|
11
|
|
2.04
|
QB
|
Jacob Eason
|
Washington
|
10
|
|
2.05
|
RB
|
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
|
LSU
|
10
|
|
2.06
|
WR
|
K.J. Hamler
|
Penn State
|
9
|
|
2.07
|
RB
|
Zack Moss
|
Utah
|
8
|
|
2.08
|
TE
|
Brycen Hopkins
|
Purdue
|
8
|
|
2.09
|
QB
|
Jordan Love
|
Utah State
|
7
|
|
2.1
|
TE
|
Cole Kmet
|
Notre Dame
|
7
|
|
2.11
|
TE
|
Hunter Bryant
|
Washington
|
7
|
|
2.12
|
WR
|
Brandon Aiyuk
|
Arizona State
|
7
|
|
3.01
|
WR
|
Jalen Reagor
|
TCU
|
6
|
|
3.02
|
RB
|
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
|
Vanderbilt
|
6
|
|
3.03
|
WR
|
Gabriel Davis
|
UCF
|
6
|
|
3.04
|
WR
|
Michael Pittman
|
USC
|
5
|
|
Mid- to Late-Third-Round Players
|
||||
|
|
WR
|
K.J. Hill
|
Ohio State
|
5
|
|
|
RB
|
Kylin Hill
|
Mississippi State
|
5
|
|
|
WR
|
Lynn Bowden
|
Kentucky
|
5
|
|
|
WR
|
Donovan Peoples-Jones
|
Michigan
|
5
|
|
|
WR
|
Devin Duvernay
|
Texas
|
5
|
|
|
RB
|
Eno Benjamin
|
Arizona State
|
5
|
We should see at least three quarterbacks drafted early who should be hot commodities in dynasty leagues. Adding three quarterbacks into the first-round mix is going to push some very good running backs and wide receivers into the second round. The depth makes those early second-round picks premium dynasty assets worth the same as a late-first would be in many other years.
Quarterback
|
Pos Rk
|
Player
|
Superflex Value
|
Start 1 QB Value
|
|
1
|
72
|
30
|
|
|
2
|
60
|
20
|
|
|
3
|
50
|
12
|
|
|
4
|
40
|
8
|
|
|
5
|
34
|
7
|
|
|
6
|
32
|
7
|
|
|
7
|
30
|
6
|
|
|
8
|
26
|
4
|
|
|
9
|
23
|
4
|
|
|
10
|
21
|
5
|
|
|
11
|
21
|
5
|
|
|
12
|
21
|
4
|
|
|
13
|
20
|
4
|
|
|
14
|
19
|
3
|
|
|
15
|
18
|
3
|
|
|
16
|
18
|
3
|
|
|
17
|
18
|
4
|
|
|
18
|
16
|
3
|
|
|
19
|
16
|
3
|
|
|
20
|
13
|
3
|
|
|
21
|
12
|
2
|
|
|
22
|
12
|
1
|
|
|
23
|
11
|
2
|
|
|
24
|
8
|
2
|
|
|
25
|
8
|
2
|
|
|
26
|
8
|
1
|
|
|
27
|
8
|
1
|
|
|
28
|
Mitchell Trubisky
|
8
|
0
|
|
29
|
7
|
0
|
|
|
30
|
6
|
1
|
|
|
31
|
6
|
1
|
|
|
32
|
6
|
0
|
|
|
33
|
5
|
0
|
|
|
34
|
4
|
0
|
|
|
35
|
4
|
0
|
Rookie QB Class Preview
Joe Burrow is a heavy favorite to go first overall and should be a day one starter. Tua Tagovailoa is a wild card because we don’t know all the specifics of his health but he is also likely to quickly earn a starting job. Justin Herbert has earned some Josh Allen comparisons and is likely going to take somebody’s job by midway through the 2020 season. When taking into account positional value, both Tagovailoa and Herbert are good bets to go Top 10 on draft day. Jacob Eason and Jordan Love are probably in the high-upside developmental category (like Drew Lock and Paxton Lynch) and could take most of a season before taking a veteran’s job. The draft process will be crucial for both and it will be interesting to track their draft stock over the next few months.
Quarterback Musical Chairs
At this point in the offseason, we can separate the 32 NFL teams and their quarterback situations into three categories:
- Settled
- Probably settled
- Open
1. Settled
- Arizona (Kyler Murray)
- Atlanta (Matt Ryan)
- Baltimore (Lamar Jackson)
- Buffalo (Josh Allen)
- Cleveland (Baker Mayfield)
- Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers)
- Houston (Deshaun Watson)
- Kansas City (Patrick Mahomes II)
- LA Rams (Jared Goff)
- Minnesota (Kirk Cousins)
- NY Giants (Daniel Jones)
- NY Jets (Sam Darnold)
- Philadelphia (Carson Wentz)
- Pittsburgh (Ben Roethlisberger)
- San Francisco (Jimmy Garoppolo)
- Seattle (Russell Wilson)
These situations look pretty straight forward. These teams are set at quarterback heading into the offseason. Green Bay and Pittsburgh may add developmental prospects but for the most part, these are stable and easy to predict depth charts.
2. Probably Settled
- Cincinnati: It already feels like a near certainty that Joe Burrow will be the starting quarterback for the Bengals next season.
- Dallas: There will be plenty of contract drama but it is hard to see Dak Prescott going anywhere any time soon.
- Denver: It seemed like Drew Lock did enough down the stretch to lock up the starting job Week 1 of 2020.
- Detroit: Back injuries are scary, so we will put Matthew Stafford in the “probably” category for now.
- Jacksonville: It would be surprising if anyone of significance is added to the Gardner Minshew versus Nick Foles competition.
- Oakland: There will be rumors and speculation to the contrary but this should be Derek Carr’s team again in 2020.
- Tampa Bay: It is hard to see the Buccaneers letting Jameis Winston walk after he just threw for 5,000+ yards.
- Tennessee: Ryan Tannehill should either get a long-term deal or the franchise tag.
- Washington: Dwayne Haskins should feel pretty secure. The only reason this is in the probably-settled category is because of Washington’s draft position. If Tua Tagovailoa aces the pre-draft process and medical check, things could get interesting. If the new coaching staff and front office aren’t enamored with Haskins’ rookie tape and fall in love with Tagovailoa, all bets are off (like Arizona last year).
3. Open Jobs
We are left with seven teams facing real uncertainty at the position entering the offseason:
- Carolina
- Chicago
- Indianapolis
- LA Chargers
- Miami
- New England
- New Orleans
It is almost like a game of musical chairs. There are seven starting jobs that are somewhat to completely open. There are approximately 15 quarterbacks with some degree of starting potential available either in free agency (Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Marcus Mariota, Teddy Bridgewater, and Taysom Hill), the draft (Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jacob Eason, and Jordan Love), or already on one of these rosters (Cam Newton, Mitch Trubisky, and Jacoby Brissett).
There are not enough starting jobs for even half of the above-listed players to open 2020 as starting quarterbacks, adding a high degree of uncertainty to the dynasty value of many of the veterans.
Expect a lot of these quarterbacks listed above to get paired up. Mitch Trubisky should be back for the Bears but he could have someone like Andy Dalton brought in as a viable Plan B (like the Titans did last year with Ryan Tannehill). Drew Brees will probably end up back in New Orleans but the Saints would also need to have a viable, younger Plan B in place behind him. Speaking of the Saints, the one name that many will feel should not belong on this list of quarterbacks with starting potential is Taysom Hill. With the recent success of dual-threat quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, creative NFL coaches without a star quarterback should at least be imagining what they could do with Hill leading their offense. He is an interesting late-round startup draft or waiver-wire target this offseason.
Running Back
|
Pos Rk
|
Player
|
Value
|
|
1
|
64
|
|
|
2
|
58
|
|
|
3
|
45
|
|
|
4
|
43
|
|
|
5
|
42
|
|
|
6
|
36
|
|
|
8
|
36
|
|
|
7
|
34
|
|
|
9
|
32
|
|
|
10
|
28
|
|
|
11
|
28
|
|
|
12
|
25
|
|
|
13
|
20
|
|
|
14
|
19
|
|
|
15
|
19
|
|
|
16
|
19
|
|
|
17
|
Melvin Gordon
|
16
|
|
18
|
15
|
|
|
19
|
14
|
|
|
20
|
13
|
|
|
21
|
13
|
|
|
22
|
12
|
|
|
23
|
10
|
|
|
24
|
10
|
|
|
25
|
10
|
|
|
26
|
9
|
|
|
27
|
9
|
|
|
28
|
8
|
|
|
29
|
8
|
|
|
30
|
8
|
|
|
31
|
8
|
|
|
32
|
7
|
|
|
33
|
Mark Ingram
|
6
|
|
34
|
6
|
|
|
35
|
6
|
|
|
36
|
6
|
|
|
37
|
5
|
|
|
38
|
5
|
|
|
39
|
5
|
|
|
40
|
5
|
|
|
41
|
5
|
|
|
42
|
Darrell Henderson
|
4
|
|
43
|
Benny Snell
|
4
|
|
44
|
4
|
|
|
45
|
4
|
|
|
46
|
4
|
|
|
47
|
4
|
|
|
48
|
4
|
|
|
49
|
4
|
|
|
50
|
4
|
|
|
51
|
3
|
|
|
52
|
3
|
|
|
53
|
3
|
|
|
54
|
2
|
|
|
55
|
2
|
|
|
56
|
2
|
|
|
57
|
2
|
|
|
58
|
2
|
|
|
59
|
2
|
|
|
60
|
2
|
|
|
61
|
2
|
|
|
62
|
2
|
RB Rookie Class Preview
It is shaping up to be a strong and deep rookie class, similar to what we saw in 2017 and 2018. We should see seven or eight running backs drafted in the Top 75 and up to 10 in the first three rounds. Each of those early-round running backs would immediately project as starters or as one of the leads in a committee. The main names to know are D'Andre Swift, Travis Etienne, Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, Najee Harris, Cam Akers, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Zach Moss, and Kylin Hill. Chuba Hubbard would join this group if he decides to leave early.
Fragile running back value
Given the talent of the incoming rookie class, dynasty running back value for veterans is extremely fragile right now. There are maybe 16 running backs who should feel relatively safe in their status as lead backs heading into next season. The other half of the crop of current starters are in tenuous positions.
It is an especially bad time to be hitting free agency. Melvin Gordon is going to regret not taking the $11M per year he was offered last season. Is any NFL team going to want to pay big money for a veteran given the Day 2 draft options? Even Derrick Henry may find himself with less leverage than expected come the spring. He has done everything within his power to earn a big new contract but Tennessee is going to have most of the leverage in what should be a buyer’s market.
The biggest wild cards
- Austin Ekeler: He should go in the third or fourth round of early dynasty startups (PPR) this offseason. He is as scary to pass on in that range as he is to draft. The Chargers offense could be drastically different next season and it is impossible to feel confident in Ekeler’s role when all of the dust settles. His value could be undercut if Gordon signs a big extension or if the Chargers draft a young running back early. On the other hand, there is a very real possibility that Ekeler will see his value skyrocket and that third or fourth-round pick could end up being a home run. Consider the fact that he finished as the RB4 in 2019, just a couple of fantasy points behind Ezekiel Elliott. Ekeler outscored Nick Chubb by 50 fantasy points and both are the same age. If you have a swing for the fences mentality, Ekeler should be near the top of your target list.
- Derrick Henry: Our dynasty teams do not get any direct benefit when a player has a big playoff game. However, from a value perspective, this playoff run is going to be huge for Henry’s dynasty stock. With another strong performance against Baltimore, Henry could make a push towards that elite tier of backs at the top of the dynasty value card. The lack of receiving production has kept Henry’s trade value relatively low. But if we project him for 100+ yards and 1.0 to 1.25 touchdowns per game going forward, you do not even need any receptions to pad the fantasy numbers.
- Joe Mixon: He was a slight fantasy disappointment overall in 2019, finishing just out of the top-12 overall at the position. However, those season-long numbers do not tell the full story. The Bengals changed up their run-game approach during the Week 9 bye. From that point forward, Mixon was the RB4 and looked the part of a superstar back down the stretch. Mixon is still just 23-years old. If the Bengals shore up the offensive line (getting Jonah Williams back from injury will help) and Joe Burrow is the real deal, Mixon could end up being a top-5 dynasty asset at some point in the near future.
- Kenyan Drake: Drake made his debut for the Cardinals in Week 9. From that point, he was the RB8 over the rest of the season (and RB6 in PPG). If Arizona brings Drake back and doesn’t add significant competition in the draft, he is going to see his dynasty stock skyrocket. If the Cardinals invest some early picks into their offensive line and Kyler Murray makes a second-year leap, Drake has massive fantasy upside. On the other hand, he could also be nearly worthless from a fantasy perspective if things do not play out well for him in free agency and he lands somewhere else as a backup.
