Topic 1: Top Options
Of the top running backs and first 3-4 wide receivers off general rookie draft boards, who is your favorite value? Most overvalued option? Where do Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa fit on your board for Superflex and 2-QB formats?
Jordan McNamara
It is a fantastic rookie class and most of the options would be top four rookie picks in other years. Historically, most are values, but in the class, Jalen Reagor is my favorite value. He is my WR1 in this class and has a very similar profile as Brandin Cooks, which is very high praise. While he is WR1 on my rookie board he remains behind the top five running backs in the class.
The most overrated player in the class is Clyde Edwards-Helaire. I like the player, but the cost and profile are a major caution. In tracking startup drafts before and after the NFL Draft, Edwards-Helaire jumped nearly five rounds in value. His first-round pedigree certainly improved his value, but the market reaction to the landing spot in Kansas City was the bigger factor. History strongly supports that profile matters more than the landing spot, so I am fading his post-NFL Draft cost.
Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa are two players I have not selected in rookie drafts. That is nothing against specifically Burrow and Tagovailoa as both have good profiles. Instead, the cost is too high in a good class. With other options that are cheaper, like Kirk Cousins and Matthew Stafford who significant track records of production, that you can target to address a need at the quarterback position. If they dropped to the 1.06 spot in rookie drafts behind the top five running backs, they would be target players, but in superflex drafts, there is virtually no chance that happens.
Dan Hindery
My first-round draft board basically matches what we are seeing in terms of rookie ADP. The conventional wisdom is actually wise this year. Each of the top prospects has major upside and none are grossly overvalued in terms of the order they are going off the board. While the order at the top is fine, Jonathan Taylor may be slightly overrated purely in terms of the perceived gap in value between him and the other top running backs. His college production is being overrated and many are giving him more credit than he deserves for the Badgers rushing offense. Multiple Wisconsin backs have had better seasons just in the last ten years than Taylor's best season and I believe if you would have put any of the other top backs from the class into the workhorse role with the Badgers, they would have put up similar numbers. Taylor, D’Andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, and Cam Akers are all in the same general tier for me but that doesn’t seem to be the case in dynasty startup drafts or trades. People are giving up way too much to move up from 1.04 or 1.05 to 1.02 for Taylor.
Jeff Tefertiller
The wide receivers in the back half of the first round are tremendous values. I do not see a dropoff from the top few picks down to guys like Reagor or Jefferson. These two are poised for big roles early and have talent.
In superflex leagues, I have Burrow tops and Tua second.
Will Grant
Like most, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is hard to pass up at #1 overall in a rookie draft. He becomes part of a high-powered KC offense that looks ready to become the next NFL dynasty and his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield makes him the easy choice there. I also like Cam Akers as a guy who has the potential for immediate impact, but his Year 2 and beyond numbers seem much higher than you should be finding in the second half of the first round. I landed him at 1.07 in the staff dynasty league, and I'm very happy about it.
I see a lot of love for Justin Jefferson at the end of the 1st round as well, and while I don't hate the pick, I don't expect him to immediately inherit Stefon Diggs reception numbers either. He does make sense in the back half of the 1st round, but I don't think I'm as high on his as others are.
CeeDee Lamb is a great talent, and I love that the Cowboys drafted him. I do wonder what type of impact he's going to have out of the gate with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup though. While the Dallas offense should continue putting up big numbers, I don't think that translates into Lamb being a fantasy star until Cooper (most likely) or Gallup moves on.
If I needed a QB for a Superflex league, I'd probably go with Joe Burrow because I feel like Cincinnati have more offensive pieces around him. The Offensive Line is not great, but you look at Joe Mixon, A.J. Green, Tyler Boyde, John Ross compared with Jordan Howard, Devante Parker, Preston Williams, and Allen Hurns, I think Burrows has the quicker path to success.
Andy Hicks
I love Jerry Jeudy as a superb long term anchor of a dynasty roster and it was absolutely devastating to have to pass on him in the staff dynasty league as I needed a running back. Jeudy is in a great position to start and be productive immediately and once he has learned how to play at this level will be a fantasy force.
Most overvalued option?
This will usually be a running back in a poor spot. That to me is Cam Akers. He will be a committee back at best this season and the Rams have had trouble running the ball well behind an aged line. Add in the incumbents, Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson likely to carry the ball early and there is a danger that Akers starts his career off on a very bad footing.
Where do Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa fit on your board for superflex and 2-QB formats?
The fact that Joe Burrow will be the starter from day one means he has to be a serious option in both formats. Tagovailoa is riskier due to the likelihood of Ryan Fitzpatrick opening as the starter and having weaker skill players to rely on. In these formats, though, their value long term is considerably higher, and in a deep rookie class, it really depends on your current roster makeup.
Jason Wood
J.K. Dobbins is my top choice for this year and beyond. He's talented, strong, patient, and landed in a perfect situation. The Ravens are a Super Bowl contender with the reigning MVP, the league's best and most committed ground game, and a top-notch offensive line. It's a plug-and-play situation where veteran Mark Ingram has looked like a Pro Bowler. Imagine what Dobbins -- a superior talent -- can do with a similar workload.
Topic 2: Landing Spots
How much are landing spots a factor for your initial rookie valuations? Is a landing spot more important than their draft position in your opinion? Discuss a rookie or two where their landing spot is a significant factor to their early-career success or failure where dynasty GMs should be aggressive to acquire them now or wait to pounce for a future discount.
Jordan McNamara
Profile is significantly more important than landing spot. When players see their value rise because of the landing spot, like Clyde Edwards-Helaire and KeShawn Vaughn, they are generally avoid-players. Almost as important are players who drop in value because of their landing spot, especially players with a good pedigree. Day two running backs are a great example of this and AJ Dillon is a prime example in 2020. Selected in the second round of the NFL Draft, Dillon was an elite rushing producer in college and elite athlete at 247 pounds at the NFL Combine but consistently fell into the mid- to late-second-round of rookie drafts. With 55% of second-round and 40% of third-round running backs producing at least one top-24 seasonal finish in their career, they are significantly better targets than their counterparts at wide receiver who produce at least one top-24 seasonal finish in 34% and 22% respectively and are selected in a similar range of rookie drafts.
Dan Hindery
I wrote over 3,000 words on this topic in the days after the draft in my rookie trade value chart article. In short, I use draft position as the starting point and biggest piece of my rookie valuations and then will make slight adjustments for landing spot, how fantasy-friendly their skill set is (especially in PPR), and how much I like the prospect in general. In practice, that means I mostly use landing spot as a tie-breaker between prospects in the same tier. Situations can change quickly so we should not place too high a value on landing spot.
Jeff Tefertiller
I view landing spots differently depending on position. At tight end, it takes long enough for a youngster to emerge that I value talent over situation. At running back, we must consider situation as the average career length of a running back is so short. There is no time to wait for situations to change. One factor is the level of stability in the coaching staff. Which staffs are in tenuous situations? These, I would weigh less since the situation is fluid. On quarterback and wide receiver, I view strictly on talent. These are positions where talent usually works out in the end so I have to trust my process for evaluating talent.
Will Grant
I have a hard time saying which is more important - but landing spot probably gets the edge if I'm forced to choose one. As I mentioned above, CeeDee Lamb has super talent - and had he gone to Philadelphia instead of Dallas, I think he has the potential to be a WR2 in his rookie season. Given he's going to compete with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallop in Dallas, I think that hurts his potential for the first year or two.
Contrast that with DAndre Swift. If he was taken three picks earlier by the Chiefs, he becomes the consensus No. 1 running back. Instead, he lands in Detroit -- where good running backs go to disappear -- he's not a middle-of-the-first-round dynasty pick.
I think Cole Kmet coming off the board as the first rookie tight end would be much better had he not gone to Chicago where their offense is a huge question mark and there is a lot of competition for him to beat out before he becomes a starter. Had he gone to New England or New Orleans, Kmet is a high second-round pick. But landing in Chicago, even though he was the first tight end taken in the NFL draft, he's a late third-round dynasty pick.
Andy Hicks
I perhaps overanalyze landing spots more than most here. Talent and draft slot are important for sure, but we see highly talented and highly drafted rookies ruined year in and year out by landing with a coaching group who thinks they can mold a talent into what they want rather than utilizing their skillset properly. We see General Managers draft players that their coaches struggle to find a role for. We see rookies drafted by coaching groups with one foot out the door and we know what thought process the next coaching team uses. Initial landing spots are crucial for a rookie getting the right coaching, the right development, and the right opportunities.
Let’s look at running back and J.K. Dobbins. Stability at coaching, a team that runs the ball more than any other side and he has time to learn from a veteran in Mark Ingram. There may be more talented backs in this class, but he ticks all the landing spot boxes you want. At the other end of the spectrum, Leviska Shenault has an uphill task. Jacksonville has a talent exodus, an inexperienced quarterback, a coaching group on the way out, and starters already in place. Shenault will need to take every opportunity and then some.
Jason Wood
Everything matters. To say draft position isn't important belies NFL history, but to say it's the most important factor is also foolhardy. You have to assess fit after the draft, absolutely. Clyde Edwards-Helaire would not have been the top rookie pick in many leagues had he not gone to the Chiefs, as an example. And CeeDee Lamb would've been much higher had he gone to a team without two young, star receivers in Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup.
Topic 3: Affected Veterans
Who are a few particularly affected veterans, positively or negatively, by rookies added to their NFL team, how has their outlook or projection changed for 2020 and beyond?
