Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the Why? more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterback
Parsons
Jalen Hurts - The sample size is still paper-thin, but the early signs are positive on Hurts being a strong fantasy option when under center with his mobility and good enough passing skillset. I still have cautious optimism for Carson Wentz - whether in Philadelphia or not in the coming season - but Hurts is on a path to challenge for (at a minimum, maximum of being the presumed Week 1 starter) the lead job for the Eagles next season. He is inside my top-25 dynasty quarterbacks after being outside the top-35 weeks ago.
Ben Roethlisberger - Roethlisberger is moving down on my board. He is eroding at a faster rate than Philip Rivers or Tom Brady, which 12 months ago I never would have expected. This despite a strong set of weapons. With only one week left in this year's fantasy season, the projection is squarely on 2021+ and I can see the argument for Roethlisberger being outside the top-25 in dynasty quarterbacks and even outside the top-30.
Hicks
Justin Herbert - Herbert is in with a real shot of breaking Andrew Luck’s record for passing yardage by a rookie quarterback. He should also get close to the lowest interception numbers for a rookie with 500 plus passing attempts. All this portends a fantastic career ahead of him. What the Chargers do with the coaching staff will be vital for his development and future though. A second offensive system in two years for a young quarterback can be brutal for their progress. Where he ranks for 2021 and beyond will be decided by this.
Matt Ryan - Ryan has a heavy dead cap figure for 2021 of almost $50 million. The fine print in these contracts means they may be able to lower that figure. We will see. With a new coaching group arriving and Ryan a possible choice to land in San Francisco, this is the season to move on. It is more likely that the cost is too high, and Ryan plays out 2021 under a new coach or as a bridge to the next starter. Until the offseason jigsaw puzzle pieces are assembled Ryan remains a borderline QB1
Matthew Stafford - It is rare for a genuine franchise quarterback to be on his fourth head coach. With 12 years under his belt in Detroit and a new head coach coming in, it may be time for Matthew Stafford to try somewhere else. His dead cap figure is still significant at 24.85 million, but it is workable if the team drafts his replacement or start with a bridge quarterback. At age 32, he will have a market for his services, but there is just as much chance Detroit roll with him for one more season at least. It all comes down to whether Stafford wants to be in Detroit.
Wood
Jalen Hurts - Hurts moves up 11 spots to QB23 after strong back-to-back performances in place of Carson Wentz. I am sure many others already have Hurts higher, but I was not sure he would ever get a real shot at the starting job; clearly, I was wrong. He is thrown the ball better than I expected, but it is still too small a sample size to overcome the reservations I had about him coming out of college. He is certainly on the rise and could finish the season as a top-15 dynasty quarterback if he plays well in the team's final two games.
Ryan Tannehill - Tannehill moves into the Top 12 with continued strong play and a sense of continuity on an offense that routinely puts up 30 or more points. While Derrick Henry is the engine that drives the Titans train, Tannehill has been far more than a game manager. He has continued last year's emergence, with accurate, confident downfield passing. He is young enough to remain in peak form for another three to five years.
Marcus Mariota - Mariota moves into the Top 35 (QB34) after filling in admirably for Derek Carr last week. Mariota was terrible in Tennessee and it will take more than a strong three quarters to overcome the bad tape we have on him. Yet, Derek Carr has no guaranteed money entering 2021, and Jon Gruden was enamored with Mariota coming out of Oregon. It is possible Mariota could play his way into a starting job in the next few weeks, but it is equally possible he will be relegated back to a backup role. It is a coin flip, but one worth watching.
Carson Wentz – Wentz drops eight spots to QB20. Some may argue this isn't far enough given Wentz's horrifically bad play this season, but he's still young and many NFL personnel executives have expressed a belief he is still a top-10 quarterback if he has the right system. This will be the cheapest you can buy Wentz if he ends up on another team in 2021 but given the cap constraints it is equally possible, he will be the backup in Philadelphia next year, but will sign as a starter elsewhere in 2022.
Running Back
Hicks
Aaron Jones - When the Packers drafted A.J. Dillon in the second round and did not extend the contract of Aaron Jones, it seemed easy to think Green Bay would move on. 2020 however has shown the value Jones brings to the offense and the balance he provides to Aaron Rodgers. The contract situation has not been resolved, despite his good form. What happens here determines where he ranks for 2021 and beyond.
Sony Michel - It seems highly unlikely that Sony Michel gets a fifth-year option taken up by New England, but he should still be with the Patriots for year four. With the progress of Damien Harris and the Patriots likely to be stronger, at least on defense, Michel is hard to rank moving forward. He had a good game against the Dolphins and moves back into consideration after an injury-interrupted season. At his best he will be underrated, but will he be given a strong workload?
Lynn Bowden - Could Lynn Bowden be the Taysom Hill of 2021? He has flicked between the designations of running back and wide receiver all year. Miami may only though be tapping the surface of what he is capable of in this offense. With a few more games available to figure out his upside, we do not know where his ceiling is capped as a dynasty prospect. One to watch closely.
Tony Pollard - With the absence of Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard was able to play a full game at running back recording over 130 total yards and two touchdowns. Those of us with Elliott on our rosters would have been keen to see some games like that this season. Elliott is almost impossible for the Cowboys to unload given his salary cap numbers until Pollard becomes a free agent. As a dynasty option, Pollard remains as insurance, but he becomes more expensive insurance for redrafts given his form.
Wood
Clyde Edwards-Helaire – The rookie drops seven spots to RB14, coming off the news of a season-ending high ankle sprain. Edwards-Helaire did not live up to monstrous expectations this year, as the Chiefs failed to commit to him as a workhorse. Or more accurately, he failed to play well enough to earn the workhorse role. Andy Reid has shown a clear willingness to commit to one back in the past, but only if he trusts that back implicitly. He clearly does not trust the rookie, yet. He may never, and Edwards-Helaire should be viewed in the context of a No. 2 fantasy running back going forward versus preseason hopes he was a No. 1 for the foreseeable future.
David Montgomery - Montgomery has done more to reshape his dynasty outlook in the last month than anyone else at the position; he moves into the top 20 (RB17). Since returning from a midseason malady, Montgomery has been a decisive, forceful interior runner in a way we had not seen since his college days. He is clearly comfortable with his role and trusts a rebuilt Bears offensive line.
Cam Akers – Akers took a while to earn his role, but it now looks apparent he is not only the most talented Rams running back but could be in line for a feature-level workload a la Todd Gurley in 2021. Akers has answered all the coach’s questions including becoming a trusty pass protector and knows the playbook inside and out. Akers has low-end RB2 downside, if healthy, but top-10 upside if things fall into place next year.
Todd Gurley – Gurley plummets 14 spots to RB31. We knew the knee was going to act up from time to time, but the Falcons used Gurley enough -- particularly in the red zone -- to justify his top-20 fantasy ranking. But he has fallen into a tertiary role again, and at his age, on a new team, it seems unlikely the Falcons will build around him in 2021 and beyond. His days as a starter are probably over.
Parsons
James Robinson - Robinson could be out for the rest of the season and, more importantly, the offseason is the riskiest time for a running back of Robinson's undrafted pedigree. To maintain his dynasty value of in-season, Robinson must now survive NFL free agency (Jacksonville has a truckload of projected cap space) and the NFL Draft, plus get to Week 1 healthy. Any misstep during this nine-month gauntlet and Robinson's season in the sun of 2020 could be a distant memory in terms of unchallenged opportunities in the NFL. Robinson is around RB30 in my rankings with the potential to move down during the offseason.
Darrynton Evans - Evans showed fabulously with his first extended look as a Day 2 rookie in 2020 this past week. Evans sparsely played previously with injuries but showed burst and surprising power with his touches. The most likely Tennessee running back depth chart in 2021 is Derrick Henry followed by Evans as the primary backup, a valuable injury-away position for upside. Evans is inside my top-45 dynasty running backs.
Wide Receiver
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Justin Jefferson - Jefferson vaults into the top 10 (WR9) after a historically good rookie season. Some feared Jefferson was mainly a possession receiver and would not give the Vikings the vertical option they lost in Stefon Diggs. That scouting profile was completely wrong, and Jefferson has done everything a No. 1 receiver should do. He runs precise routes, has gotten separation, has beaten defensive backs deep anytime he is singled up outside, and has a my-ball mentality that evokes memories of Cris Carter. He is playing like an All-Pro and gives Minnesota another building block to pair with Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen.
DK Metcalf - Metcalf moves up from WR15 to WR7, and the reasons should be obvious. While Tyler Lockett is a talent, Metcalf has emerged as better in every way. He is stronger. He is faster. He is more durable. And importantly he is built a rapport with Russell Wilson and is no, clearly, the first option in most passing progressions.
Julio Jones - Jones drops from WR6 to WR15. Jones is a Hall of Famer, but he has battled injuries on and off this season and it is finally catching up with him, as he has had difficulty staying in the lineup in consecutive weeks and could be on the verge of being shut down. With Matt Ryan's future uncertain, and Calvin Ridley's emergence as a true No. 1, Jones is in a natural position to gracefully turn into a complementary asset much in the way Larry Fitzgerald has in the last few years.
Corey Davis - Davis jumps to WR37 after his best season to date. Davis is a free agent and could be an attractive buy even after this year's momentum if you acquire him before he signs elsewhere as another team's clear-cut No. 1.
T.Y. Hilton - Hilton rebounds to WR40 (from WR67) thanks to an impressive month. Hilton's talent was never in question, but he was an afterthought for much of the season and seemed to have no chemistry with Philip Rivers. That is all changed, thanks in part to Hilton finally being healthy. At his age and given his injury history, Hilton is no longer an every-week fantasy starter, but he has played well enough of late to view him as a high-quality WR3 and bye week option going forward.
Parsons
JuJu Smith-Schuster - The historical production is strong, especially for his age curve, but Smith-Schuster has a big offseason coming. He is in the process of two straight down years and now a potential team change. Typically, changing teams is not a positive for a wide receiver in their first year with a new team, but Smith-Schuster is in a lull, so the threshold is easier to surpass. Smith-Schuster's profile is worthy of a top-20 dynasty ranking at the position, but with a glut of positional talent, being closer to 30 is also possible depending on how free agency goes.
Brandon Aiyuk - It is difficult to be too bullish on Aiyuk's outlook. Even with three quarterbacks playing for the 49ers this season, Aiyuk has produced well and at an impressive historical clip for a rookie receiver. Aiyuk is worthy of a top-12 dynasty receiver ranking and the ceiling is even higher with better quarterback play in the future.
Hicks
Cole Beasley - After only two one-hundred-yard games in his seven-year career in Dallas, Cole Beasley has found life after 30 in Buffalo to this liking. Two one-hundred-yard games in his final four games of 2019 gave us a hint that he might be adapting well to being a Bill but with five one-hundred-yard games this year and likely to smash through the 1000-yard season, what do we do with him moving forward? It is hard to see bottom end WR2 stats in 2021 and beyond, but that is where he is now.
Corey Davis - As he fortuitously enters free agency, Corey Davis is having his best year by far. As a very high draft pick, he didn’t meet those high expectations until now. Where he ends up is vital for assessing his future. He has the talent and now the production to match it. Would he be better staying in Tennessee or leaving for elsewhere? He will be one of the more interesting offseason stories to follow.
Calvin Ridley - Ridley is having a truly elite season. He has usurped the number one role in Atlanta, similarly to how Julio Jones did with Roddy White. With a new coaching group coming in 2021 and the future of Matt Ryan up in the air there is going to be risk associated with Ridley while everything develops. If we were in the same old Atlanta in 2021. I would be comfortable having Ridley as a top-five receiver. The uncertainty gives me pause.
Tight End
Hicks
Dawson Knox - Missing five games this season has not helped Dawson Knox break out, but his form over the last few weeks makes me confident he can ascend to become a TE1 in 2021, and who knows from there. Three touchdowns in the last four weeks and a building relationship with Josh Allen all indicate a promising future.
Noah Fant - Fant has had an up and down second year but looks to be getting on track to fulfill the expectations of being a first-round pick. What happens in Denver in the offseason could be huge though. It is hard to know whether a possible new head coach and or quarterback will be a positive yet. Denver is building a young offense that can only be ruined by poor decisions at the top.
Logan Thomas - Thomas gives every indication that he is this year's Seth DeValve. A veteran who gets an opportunity later in his career takes advantage and is more likely than not to never come near that performance level again. I would not expect this level of performance to continue in 2021, but he has proven if he gets a chance, he can exceed expectations.
Parsons
Cole Kmet - Kmet has shown progression in recent weeks and is on track to be the unquestioned starter for the Bears in 2021. Jimmy Graham may not be on the roster and a Year 2 progression is expected for tight ends in general, but especially ones who show flashes in Year 1 like Kmet, the first tight end off the board back in April.
Logan Thomas - Thomas is a positional convert from quarterback but has strung together a quality 2020 season and is still under contract at a reasonable cap number for 2021 with Washington. The franchise has plenty of needs and while the TE2/3 spots on the depth charts certainly could see an upgrade in the offseason, Thomas' play makes the starting spot less likely to be a critical need than a couple of months ago. Thomas could be an ideal bridge dynasty option in 2021 with a reasonable chance for a top-12 season.
Wood
Robert Tonyan Jr – Tonyan went from roster bubble player to dominant red-zone factor this season and importantly has earned Aaron Rodgers trust. At Tonyan's age, he can maintain top-10 value for as long as Aaron Rodgers plays at a Pro Bowl level.
Cole Kmet - Kmet jumps into the Top 10 (TE9) as the Bears have gotten on track offensively and Kmet's snap count has steadily increased while Jimmy Graham's declines. Kmet did not put up eye-popping stats this year, but rookie tight ends rarely do. Expect a major step forward in 2021 as Kmet cements a regular role and possibly becomes the No. 2 target in the passing attack behind Allen Robinson.
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