All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.
Know Your Enemies
To place near the top of a large-field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players fit together under the salary cap, you’re left guessing what type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.
To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, with the goal of building your lineups differently, let’s think about how the crowd will attack each position:
Quarterback
The last two slates have been unusually low scoring, but we should return to normalcy this week with seven games expected to reach at least 49 points. Our opponents might want to spend up to Patrick Mahomes II ($8,000) and Kyler Murray ($8,200), but probably won’t be able to get past Josh Allen ($7,600) at the high end due to DraftKings’ efficient pricing. More commonly, the crowd will target either side of the Raiders at Falcons game (55-½ point over/under) with Derek Carr ($5,700) or Matt Ryan ($5,900).
Pivot Points: Starting your stacks with Mahomes or Murray will never qualify as contrarian, but without much obvious value on the slate, it’s nearly impossible to build balanced lineups around them. Use the tight pricing to your advantage with plenty of stars & scrubs lineups featuring the two highest-ceiling quarterbacks in the league. Moving down, entrants may look past Teddy Bridgewater ($6,300) in a great spot at Minnesota due to his recent injury. Daniel Jones ($5,500) is your price pivot off Carr against Cincinnati, whose season effectively ended when Joe Burrow’s knee got mangled last week.
Running Back
Running back salaries are the reason most folks will look to save at quarterback. As usual, Dalvin Cook ($9,500) will be the first name entrants click when building lineups. Josh Jacobs ($7.200) and James Robinson ($6,300) are the standout options at RB2, and only Robinson is a relative bargain. Derrick Henry ($7,900) and Nick Chubb ($7,100) should have their fans as well, but neither is likely to appear in the most common build. Look for Wayne Gallman ($5,000) to emerge as the crowd-favorite bargain-bin running back, and a popular flex option, due to his matchup against the Bengals.
Pivot Points: How confident are you the move to Taysom Hill at quarterback has ruined Alvin Kamara as a pass-catcher? Unless you’re more than 95% certain, Kamara is a worthwhile pivot at the top salary tier. Kareem Hunt ($5,600) gets the same choice matchup against Jacksonville as Chubb but comes with significant salary savings, a lower roster percentage, and what appears to be a solidified red-zone role. The mid-$5K price range includes several other backs with theoretical upside who figure to go overlooked, including the returning Raheem Mostert ($5,600), Kenyan Drake ($5,400), and Jonathan Taylor ($5,900).
Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen ($8,000), Stefon Diggs ($7,600), Tyreek Hill ($7,800), and Calvin Ridley ($7,100) will each be popular standalone plays, but unless more value opens up entering the weekend, we’re going to see extraordinarily-light spending at wide receiver. Justin Jefferson ($6,300) and DeVante Parker ($5,900) will appear as the WR1 in chalky builds, along with Michael Pittman ($5,000) at WR2. Assuming Gallman is the most popular flex option, it doesn’t leave much cap space at WR3, where Andy Isabella ($3,000), Gabriel Davis ($3,000), and Laviska Shenault ($3,300) profile as the punt-plays du jour.
Pivot Points: The easiest way to build a lineup that looks different than your opponents is to go heavy on the mid-$5K tier at running back and spend most of your cap on a pair of high-priced wide receivers. Just be careful not to make it two chalky high-priced wide receivers, which is a strategy that rarely makes sense in tournaments due to the variance in weekly scoring at the position. Expensive plays that shouldn’t be highly-rostered include DeAndre Hopkins ($8,100) and A.J. Brown ($6,700).
Tight End
Another reason wide receiver spending might reach a record-low this week is the wasteland at tight end behind Travis Kelce ($7,000) and Darren Waller ($6,000). These guys will (deservedly) combine for roughly half of the overall roster percentage at the position.
Pivot Points: Kelce leads all tight ends in cumulative DraftKings scoring by a 45% margin over Waller. Waller leads the TE3 -- Mark Andrews -- by a 17% margin, and Andrews isn’t on the slate. This is a long way of saying tight end stinks outside of Kelce and Waller, and you shouldn’t fade these guys in any format.
Can You Trust The Chalk?
The term chalk in sports betting simply means the heavily-favored side of a bet. In DFS tournaments, these are the most popular players on the slate. Identifying and taking a stance on the chalk is a crucial part of tournament strategy. If you fade a chalky player, and he fails to deliver on his scoring projection, your lineup will be positioned to pass a large chunk of the field in the standings. But when a popular player lives up to expectations and you choose not to roster him, your lineups can quickly get buried in the standings.
Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s most popular players:
Dalvin Cook (vs. CAR, $9,500, 31% rostered)
Cook is closing in on 2019 Christian McCaffrey-salary levels, but his massive workloads and multiple slate-breaking performances justify his exorbitant price tag. With the Vikings at home, favored by more than a field goal and implied to score over 27 points vs. Carolina, Cook is once again set up nicely to lead all running backs in DraftKings scoring. The Panthers’ rush defense has improved over the course of the season, but Ronald Jones II (23-192-1) reminded us in Week 10 that Carolina remains an enticing matchup for opposing running backs. Especially on a week where he shouldn’t exceed 35% rostered, there isn’t a logical reason to fade Cook relative to the field.
Calvin Ridley (vs. LV, $7,100, 16% rostered)
There are plenty of wide receivers who could be highlighted in this space, but with Julio Jones missing practice Friday and Ridley the cheapest play in the top tier, he gets a slight nod over Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, and Stefon Diggs as the chalk. In three games without Jones since 2019 (two this season), Ridley totaled 33 targets, 337 receiving yards, and didn’t have less than 10 targets in any game. It’s a recipe for success against the Raiders, who have been routinely burned by enemy WR1s over the previous five weeks, including Chris Godwin (9-9-88-1), Keenan Allen (11-9-103-1), and Tyreek Hill (14-11-102-1). As long as his percent-rostered projection doesn’t spike too high if/when Jones is announced as inactive, Ridley is a fine play, but he shouldn’t be your top-rostered receiver. Temper expectations a bit as he continues to play through a mid-foot sprain.
Josh Allen (vs. LAC, $7,600, 13% rostered)
It appears Allen is over a midseason swoon that saw him finish with fewer than 21 DraftKings points in Weeks 5-8. Plus-matchups against the Seahawks and Cardinals have gotten him back on track, and he draws another opponent that invites shootouts this week. Every Chargers game since Week 3 has exceeded a 50-point game total, including recent contests against the Jaguars (Gardner Minshew), Broncos (Drew Lock), Dolphins (Tua Tagovailoa), and Jets (Joe Flacco). Allen becomes even more attractive on a slate without much running back and tight end value due to the announcement John Brown is out this week. Cole Beasley ($5,500) is priced well relative to his upside (two games over 25 DraftKings points in 2020), and Gabriel Davis has a strong probability of finishing with double-digit points at the wide receiver min-salary. This a game that was made to stack. Make sure Allen appears in about 20% of your builds.
| Player | Pos | Opponent | Salary | Proj. Own % | Comment |
| Derek Carr | QB | @ATL | $5,700 | 8% | Matchup couldn't be better but difficult to trust when expectations are high. |
| Patrick Mahomes II | QB | @TB | $8,000 | 10% | The answer to if you should play him in GPPs every week is yes. |
| Matt Ryan | QB | LV | $5,900 | 8% | Not a great track record without Julio. Keep him reserved for cash games. |
| James Robinson | RB | CLE | $6,300 | 22% | Plan A and Plan B will be for Jags to run w/ Glennon at QB and no Chark. |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | @ATL | $7,200 | 20% | Have to pick a side between Carr and Jacobs. Trust Jacobs more to collect the TDs. |
| Wayne Gallman | RB | @CIN | $5,000 | 14% | Pretty easy fade in tournaments. Play Giants passing game instead. |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | LAC | $7,600 | 23% | No CB Casey Hayward for LAC. Strong probability Diggs is top WR scorer on the slate. |
| Keenan Allen | WR | @BUF | $8,000 | 22% | Should gobble up receptions over the middle vs. Buffalo defense. |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | CAR | $6,300 | 16% | % rostered will fly if Thielen is announced out. Like him more if Thielen plays. |
| Travis Kelce | TE | TB | $7,000 | 23% | See Mahomes blurb above. |
| Darren Waller | TE | @ATL | $6,000 | 25% | TE playing the role of WR1 for Las Vegas. ATL allowing most PPR pts. to TEs. |
Leverage Plays
You won’t necessarily be sneaking the players in this section past your opponents. But their percent rostered projection is lower than the probability they can appear in a first-place lineup. If you are multi-entering tournaments, raise your exposure higher than their projected roster percentage.
Nyheim Hines (vs. TEN, $4,600, 7% rostered)
Hines is coming off a game in which he played just 33% of the snaps and was soundly outscored by Jonathan Taylor, who had his first strong game in what feels like forever. Recency bias should put the crowd off Hines at a favorable salary, and in a potentially high-scoring game (over/under 51-½). It was only two weeks ago we saw Hines handle 56% of the backfield snaps, total 17 touches, and score a touchdown from inside the five-yard line. Indianapolis remains a hot-hand backfield, and Taylor coming out of the gates hot for a second-straight week is far from a guarantee. What does seem guaranteed is Jordan Wilkins’ reduced role (15% snap-share over last two games), which elevates the floor and ceiling for both Hines and Taylor. Play both liberally (in different lineups, of course) against Tennessee’s bottom-10 rush defense as leverage against Michael Pittman’s presumed popularity.
Robby Anderson (@MIN, $6,100, 10% rostered)
Typically a popular play due to his middling price and high target volume, Anderson shouldn’t appear in more than 10% of lineups this week. It’s been six weeks since we’ve seen him flash any type of ceiling, but Teddy Bridgewater is back this week and Anderson’s peripheral stats remain in order. Since his last 20+ point game on DraftKings in Week 5, Anderson has more targets and receptions than co-WR1 D.J. Moore yet has scored nearly 30 fewer DraftKings points. Without much disparity in their respective weighted opportunities, Anderson is due for one of the 20+ point performances we’ve been seeing from Moore recently, and Minnesota’s pass defense should oblige. Only the Seahawks, Falcons, and Titans have allowed more PPR points to enemy wide receivers this season.
Daniel Jones (@CIN, $5,500, 6% rostered)
Despite nearly getting laughed off this week’s DFS Power Grid for recommending Jones in cash games, we’ll double-down on the high likelihood he reaches value for GPPs. With the nightmarish early portion of his schedule now behind him, Jones is poised for a late-season surge. When we last saw him in Week 10, Jones was terrific against the Eagles’ solid pass-rush, completing 75% of his passes, rushing for 64 yards and a touchdown, and scoring 22.16 DraftKings points. The rushing production wasn’t a fluke. New York has designed more runs for Jones since Week 6, and he’s responded with 254 rushing yards over five games. For context, that’s more rushing yards than Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, and Cam Newton over the same span. Cincinnati’s defense ranks 28th against the pass and their new starting quarterback, Brandon Allen, should gift the Giants with one or two short-scoring chances this week. Play Jones in all formats.
| Player | Pos | Opponent | Salary | Proj. Own % | Comment |
| Justin Herbert | QB | @BUF | $7,200 | 7% | More people will stack the Buffalo side. Slight leverage play on shootout. |
| Kyler Murray | QB | @NE | $8,200 | 6% | We get him at roster % discount this week due to salary/ perceived matchup. |
| Teddy Bridgewater | QB | @MIN | $6,300 | 5% | Too nice for revenge games to matter, but WRs have massive talent advantage. |
| Derrick Henry | RB | @IND | $7,900 | 13% | LB Okereke, DTs Autry and Buckner out for IND. Much better matchup than it seems |
| Nick Chubb | RB | @JAX | $7,100 | 8% | Needs 100+ and two TDs at this salary. Could get it vs. JAX... |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | @JAX | $5,600 | 6% | ...unless the TDs all go to Hunt, who is priced well relative to upside. |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | @NE | $8,100 | 8% | NE quietly fielding 31st ranked pass defense (DVOA). |
| DeVante Parker | WR | NYJ | $5,900 | 14% | Still like him with Tua, but best value on the slate if Fitzpatrick starts. |
| Sterling Shepard | WR | @CIN | $5,100 | 7% | 32 targets over last four games. Preferred stack with Jones. |
| D.J. Moore | WR | @MIN | $6,200 | 11% | Big games from Moore and Anderson not mutually exclusive vs. MIN defense. |
| Michael Pittman | WR | TEN | $5,000 | 10% | Roster % down with emergence of cheap WR values late. |
| Hayden Hurst | TE | LV | $3,900 | 7% | At least he's at home and in a projected high-scoring game. |
Contrarian Plays
As stated in the introduction, you don’t stand a chance of winning a large-field tournament with a lineup that looks like everyone else’s. Typically, two players with roster projections below 5% are enough to separate your lineups from the crowd. If you’re multi-entering, however, be careful not to ratchet your exposure to contrarian players up too high. Keep in mind using a 5%-rostered player in only two out of 10 lineups gains you four times more exposure than the field when you multi-enter a tournament.
Tom Brady (vs. KC, $6,600, 4% rostered)
A significant portion of the field will be stacking the Kansas City side of this matchup while ignoring Brady, who has played poorly on national television in two out of the last three weeks. While Brady certainly had a difficult time standing up to the fierce pass-rushes of the Saints and Rams, it was only two weeks ago he shredded the Panthers for a 341-3-0 passing line. Kansas City’s defensive line represents a neutral matchup, at best, for Tampa Bay up-front. Without constant defensive pressure, and with Patrick Mahomes II and co. presumably scoring at will, we should expect a back-and-forth contest in a game Vegas expects to be close (KC -3) and high-scoring (56-point over/under). Considering Brady is available at a $1,400 discount and half the roster percentage compared to Mahomes, he’s the better quarterback play from this marquee matchup in GPPs.
Laviska Shenault (vs. CLE, $3,300, 5% rostered)
As of this writing, Shenault’s percent-rostered projection is purely a guess, so make sure to visit Devin Knotts’ updated projections (linked at the top of this article) prior to finalizing your lineups. Assuming Shenault splits D.J. Chark’s vacated roster percentage with Keelan Cole (also in play at $3,600), he belongs in about 10% of your lineups. With Mike Glennon at quarterback, the Jaguars will be stressed for ways to score points and avoid turnovers. Besides running the ball with James Robinson (which we’ll see plenty of), manufacturing touches for Shenault in space represents Jacksonville’s best chance of sustaining drives and scoring touchdowns. Before the nicks and bruises started accumulating, Shenault opened his rookie season with double-digit DraftKings points in four-out-of-five games.
Kyle Rudolph (vs. CAR, $2,800, 3% rostered)
News that Irv Smith is doubtful to play this week may fly under the radar, making Rudolph one of a precious few tight end punt-plays worth considering. When Smith last sat out in Week 10, Rudolph posted a 5-4-63-0 receiving line, which would be adequate for his near-site minimum salary this week. If he can tack a touchdown onto similar yardage and reception totals, Rudolph -- always a red zone threat -- would have a solid chance of appearing in first-place lineups. If Adam Thielen is out, push your exposure up even further.
| Player | Pos | Opponent | Salary | Proj. Own % | Comment |
| Ryan Tannehill | QB | @IND | $5,800 | 3% | TEN @ IND is a potential shootout not top of mind for the crowd. |
| Philip Rivers | QB | TEN | $6,100 | 4% | See above. Stack w/ Pittman and Hines/Taylor. |
| Kenyan Drake | RB | @NE | $5,400 | 3% | Passing-game involvement last week was encouraging. |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | @DEN | $8,200 | 3% | >3% chance he busts up the slate in any given week. |
| Ronald Jones II | RB | KC | $6,100 | 2% | Sneaky way to run back Chiefs stacks. |
| Raheem Mostert | RB | @LAR | $5,600 | 2% | Forgotten man in forgotten game. 49ers should lean on him. |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | ARI | $5,300 | 5% | Is one game enough to put us off 40+% target share from Weeks 7-10? |
| A.J. Brown | WR | @IND | $6,700 | 3% | Always seems to go under-appreciated. Stud. |
| Andy Isabella | WR | @NE | $3,000 | 5% | Has produced whenever given significant snaps. One of 4 active WRs for ARI. |
| Jalen Guyton | WR | @BUF | $3,100 | 1% | One of these weeks he'll actually get targeted on a few of those routes he runs. |
| Noah Fant | TE | NO | $4,200 | 4% | Hopefully putting ankle injury further behind him. |
