All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.
Know Your Enemies
To place near the top of a large-field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players fit together under the salary cap, you’re left guessing what type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.
To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, with the goal of building your lineups differently, let’s think about how the crowd will attack each position:
Quarterback
Three games on the slate have Vegas totals over 50 points and point spreads of less than a field goal. It’s safe to assume quarterback roster percentages will concentrate around those games, where Kyler Murray ($8,000), Josh Allen ($7,500), Russell Wilson ($7,700), and Deshaun Watson ($6,900) are the standout options. Green Bay has the highest implied team total on the slate in a projected blowout win over Jacksonville at Lambeau, making Aaron Rodgers ($7,900) yet another reason for the crowd to spend heavily at quarterback.
Pivot Points: New Orleans is in a similar spot to Green Bay, as huge home favorites with a 30-point implied total. We haven’t seen Drew Brees ($6,400) reach much of a ceiling this season but he’s fairly priced, and with Michael Thomas back, Brees’ upside is elevated. If you’re looking for a contrarian punt play, Nick Mullens ($5,300) is capable of racking up yardage and multiple touchdowns in comeback mode against the Saints up-and-down pass defense.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey is back on the sidelines one week after returning from IR, leaving Mike Davis ($4,000) as the chalkiest play of the 2020 season. Davis’ low salary makes it easy to plug in Alvin Kamara ($8,200) or Aaron Jones ($7,100) at RB1, along with a mid-priced running back at flex, where the common options will include James Robinson ($6,600) and Miles Sanders ($6,400). If David Johnson can’t clear the concussion protocol, Duke Johnson Jr ($5,000) will join Davis as chalk, opening up even more cap space to spend up at quarterback and wide receiver.
Pivot Points: Last week’s dud against the Cowboys will make the crowd leery of trusting James Conner ($6,900), but now isn’t the time to stop targeting the Bengals rush defense. You’ll also want more exposure than the field to both Nick Chubb ($6,800) and Kareem Hunt ($6,700) at a similar price point to Sanders and Robinson. The Browns’ running backs will cannibalize each other’s roster rates, but the matchup against Houston makes it possible for one of them to lead the slate in scoring, even while sharing carries.
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams’ ($9,000) salary would usually make him cost-prohibitive, but there is plenty of cap relief available elsewhere to fit him comfortably alongside expensive quarterbacks and running backs. We can look for most WR2s to come from the middle salary tier, where Tyler Lockett ($6,500), Brandin Cooks ($5,600), and Diontae Johnson ($5,200) are underpriced relative to their target volume. Cap savings will have to come from the WR3 slot. Popular punts will include Jakeem Grant ($3,000), Josh Reynolds ($3,500), and K.J. Hamler ($3,800).
Pivot Points: The clearest way to leverage the field at wide receiver is to simply (and uncomfortably) fade Adams in favor of any number of high-priced studs with lower roster percentages, including DK Metcalf ($7,600) and Michael Thomas ($7,400). DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700) and Stefon Diggs ($7,500) might qualify also, but if Duke Johnson Jr becomes viable, their popularity will rise.
Tight End
With Travis Kelce off the main slate and George Kittle on IR, Darren Waller ($5,900) will be popular, as usual. But heavy spending at other positions will keep Waller out of the most common builds in favor of high-ceiling plays in the $4K range, specifically Noah Fant ($4,900), Dallas Goedert ($4,200), and the returning Austin Hooper ($3,900).
Pivot Points: Roster rates at tight end should be fairly flat this week, leaving few obvious pivots. Play the top point-per-dollar values and look to other positions for leverage.
Can You Trust The Chalk?
The term chalk in sports betting simply means the heavily-favored side of a bet. In DFS tournaments, these are the most popular players on the slate. Identifying and taking a stance on the chalk is a crucial part of tournament strategy. If you fade a chalky player, and he fails to deliver on his scoring projection, your lineup will be positioned to pass a large chunk of the field in the standings. But when a popular player lives up to expectations and you choose not to roster him, your lineups can quickly get buried in the standings.
Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s most popular players:
Kyler Murray (vs. BUF, $8,000, 15% rostered)
Murray has officially achieved 2019 Lamar Jackson status -- 25-point floor, 40-point ceiling, and a weekly threat to hit the 100-yard rushing bonus. A home matchup against the Bills isn’t one to fear from a passing perspective. Buffalo ranks bottom-eight in passing yards allowed and bottom-12 in opponent yards per pass attempt. Interestingly, the Bills have given up at least 35 rushing yards to mobile quarterbacks Ryan Tannehill (4-42-1), Patrick Mahomes II (10-36-0), and Cam Newton (9-54-1), as well as rushing touchdowns to Jared Goff and Russell Wilson. It’s a terrific setup for Murray, whose 102.3 fantasy points generated from rush attempts trails only Dalvin Cook, Todd Gurley, and Derrick Henry for the league-lead. Zero reasons exist to leave Murray out of your GPP plans on this (or any) slate.
Davante Adams (vs. JAX, $9,000, 31% rostered)
Similar to Murray, Adams is a great play this week and every other week. Unlike Murray, however, Adams plays a volatile position and is priced well ahead of his wide receiver peers. Jacksonville has been obliterated by the opposition’s top perimeter receiver in every game since Week 5, but what happens to Adams if Aaron Jones hogs the touchdowns against the same defense that allowed multiple scores on the ground to Joe Mixon (25-151-2) and D’Andre Swift (14-116-2)? Even if Adams were to score his usual 25-30 DraftKings points via receptions and yardage, simple touchdown variance would prevent him from helping you win tournaments at his salary/ownership levels. Throw a pinch of salt over your shoulder for good luck and fade Adams relative to the field.
Mike Davis (vs. TB, $4,000, 59% rostered)
Davis is the definition of mega-chalk. DraftKings dropped his salary to handcuff territory after Christian McCaffrey returned to an 82% share of Carolina’s running back touches in Week 9. With McCaffrey suddenly back on the shelf with a shoulder injury, however, Davis is in a spot where he can reasonably return 6x value without even reaching his ceiling. The Buccaneers field the league’s third-rated rush defense (DVOA), but Davis’ pass-catching ability insulates him from the poor matchup, especially if Vegas has the spread right (Tampa Bay -6). He might be the cash game lock of the season, but fading is the correct play in tournaments any time a player reaches this level of popularity. Keep in mind, Davis recorded single-digit fantasy points in each of his last two games without McCaffrey. If his slump continues, rosters without Davis are well-positioned to jump half the field in the standings.
| Player | Pos | Opponent | Salary | Proj. Own % | Comment |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | JAX | $7,900 | 8% | Capable of 30+ in this spot but keep an eye on high winds in forecast. |
| Josh Allen | QB | @ARI | $7,500 | 12% | Was last week's return to form on Allen or Seattle's defense? |
| Duke Johnson Jr | RB | @CLE | $5,000 | 21% | If David Johnson sits, inherits 90% touch-share in + matchup. |
| Aaron Jones | RB | JAX | $7,100 | 26% | Prefer Jones to GB passing game in matchup he should dominate. |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | SF | $8,200 | 23% | Light usage last week was game-script driven. |
| Keenan Allen | WR | @MIA | $7,100 | 18% | Target monster. CB Xavien Howard shouldn't follow him into slot. |
| D.J. Moore | WR | TB | $5,100 | 16% | Priced too low relative to ceiling. |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | @ARI | $7,500 | 24% | Priced too high relative to ceiling. Fade. |
| Darren Waller | TE | DEN | $5,900 | 19% | Fine with making him a top TE exposure at ugly position. |
Leverage Plays
You won’t necessarily be sneaking the players in this section past your opponents. But their percent rostered projection is lower than the probability they can appear in a first-place lineup. If you are multi-entering tournaments, raise your exposure higher than their projected roster percentage.
Michael Thomas (vs. SF, $7,400, 7% rostered)
Thomas is exactly the type of wide receiver you want to roster at a higher rate than Adams. He didn’t light the world on fire in his first game back since Week 1 (6-5-51-0) but Thomas’ presence on the field ignited the Saints high-powered offense in a difficult matchup against Tampa Bay. Now that he’s had a week to knock off the rust, the table is set for a vintage Thomas receiving line. New Orleans has the second-highest team total on the slate (30 points) and their offensive production is more likely to come via the pass than the run. The 49ers rank 6th in rush defense DVOA but 19th against the pass. Thomas is also deeply discounted at $7,400 compared to his $9,000 Week 1 salary, which is equivalent to Adams’ price tag this week.
Tyler Lockett (@LAR, $6,500, 16% rostered)
Lockett will be a more popular WR1 option than Thomas, but even if his roster percentage reaches 20%, it’s still too low at his middling salary. We’ve seen Lockett reach, and even exceed, Adams’ ceiling twice already this season. And while it’s been difficult to peg when Lockett’s blowup games are coming, it’s evident the matchup in his favor this week. D.K. Metcalf is likely to be hampered by Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey on the perimeter while Lockett will face off with Troy Hill in the slot on about 60% of his routes. In fairness, Hill has played well this season, but it’s no coincidence opposing defenses are attacking him with far greater frequency than LA’s outside corners. The trends point to a big yardage day for Lockett, and with Russell Wilson as his quarterback, multiple touchdowns are always within the range of possible outcomes.
Kareem Hunt (vs. HOU, $6,700, 5% rostered)
The Texans have allowed 30.6 PPR fantasy points per game to enemy running backs this season, which is 27% more than league average. It makes little sense Hunt and Nick Chubb are each projected as borderline contrarian plays considering the Browns rank inside the top-10 in running back fantasy scoring. Chubb’s return from an MCL sprain means we can wave goodbye to Hunt’s recent bell-cow usage. But with the definitive call on Chubb’s return not coming until Friday, it’s doubtful he’ll immediately resume his usual workload. Hunt’s median projection places him around 16-17 touches against one of the league’s worst rush defenses, in a projected back-and-forth game with a 54-½-point over/under. His chances of scoring 25 DraftKings points in this spot are greater than 5% (and the same can be said for Chubb). Raise your exposure above the field on both Cleveland running backs.
| Player | Pos | Opponent | Salary | Proj. Own % | Comment |
| Carson Wentz | QB | @NYG | $5,900 | 6% | 33 DK points in Week 7 vs. NYG. Cheap and so are his stacking partners. |
| Russell Wilson | QB | @LAR | $7,700 | 8% | Struggled last week and the result was still 29 DK points. |
| Miles Sanders | RB | @NYG | $6,400 | 14% | Big play machine prior to getting injured. |
| Chase Edmonds | RB | BUF | $6,300 | 18% | If Drake is out again, make him your top RB exposure. |
| Brandin Cooks | WR | @CLE | $5,600 | 6% | Priced as though he doesn't have 39 targets in last four games. Watch the wind. |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | @DET | $6,800 | 10% | Perfect skill set for dome football, even with Alex Smith at QB. |
| Diontae Johnson | WR | CIN | $5,200 | 9% | Double-digit targets are the norm when he plays a full game. |
| Robby Anderson | WR | TB | $6,100 | 8% | CAR passing game cuts the Mike Davis chalk. Anderson due for some TDs. |
| Rob Gronkowski | TE | @CAR | $4,600 | 7% | Brady's red zone binky would have TD in four straight if not for drop last week. |
Contrarian Plays
As stated in the introduction, you don’t stand a chance of winning a large-field tournament with a lineup that looks like everyone else’s. Typically, two players with roster projections below 5% are enough to separate your lineups from the crowd. If you’re multi-entering, however, be careful not to ratchet your exposure to contrarian players up too high. Keep in mind using a 5%-rostered player in only two out of 10 lineups gains you four times more exposure than the field when you multi-enter a tournament.
Jakeem Grant (vs. LAC, $3,000, 7% rostered)
Perhaps Grant is best-used in cash games where his steady seven-to-nine-point output over the last three weeks is enough to justify his minimum salary. But with Isaiah Ford traded to the Patriots and Preston Williams placed on IR, we can safely expect Grant to be on the field for at least 60% of Miami’s offensive snaps, which is roughly double the amount he was playing as recently as Week 8. The uptick in playing time for Grant makes him an interesting price pivot off Josh Reynolds ($3,500), who projects as the crowd’s favorite punt option at wide receiver due to his recent usage and matchup against Seattle’s dismal secondary. As an added bonus, there is always a small chance Grant helps you on special teams with a punt-return touchdown.
D.J. Chark (@GB, $6,200, 4% rostered)
Chark’s projected roster percentage might creep past 5% by the weekend, but he’ll remain a strong play in tournaments provided Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander can’t clear the league’s concussion protocol in time for this week’s game. Alexander has locked down opposing WR1s all season, including Julio Jones (4-4-32-0), Mike Evans (2-1-10-0), and Adam Thielen (4-3-27-0). New Jaguars quarterback Jake Luton was scouted as a good deep-ball thrower who layers the ball well over coverage, and we saw it materialize on a 73-yard touchdown to Chark in last week’s game. Without Alexander to contend with, the duo will have plenty of opportunities to connect for more big plays in a game Jacksonville is expected to lose by two touchdowns.
Note - keep an eye on the weather forecast as we approach lineup lock. Early reports show sustained winds at 20-25 MPH in Green Bay, which would negatively impact passing performance in this game.
Antonio Brown (@CAR, $5,800, 2% rostered)
It seems like the shine is already off Brown after his much-anticipated return resulted in only 6.1 DraftKings points in last week’s ugly loss to the Saints. It creates a buying opportunity in GPPs where Brown will go overlooked in a wide receiver price range not many will target. Despite the mediocre stat line, Brown showed us exactly what we wanted to see in Week 9 -- a 78% snap rate, team-leading 31% air-yard share, and his trademark route-running. If everything hadn’t gone wrong for Tom Brady against New Orleans, Brown’s box score would have looked more impressive. Based on his usage and how sharp he looked on the field while still knocking off the rust, Brown will post a handful of monster receiving lines as a Buccaneer, and the first one could come in Carolina where Tampa Bay is implied to score over 28 points.
| Player | Pos | Opponent | Salary | Proj. Own % | Comment |
| Drew Brees | QB | SF | $6,400 | 2% | Upside is restored with Thomas back in lineup. |
| Nick Mullens | QB | @NO | $5,300 | 1% | Saints have allowed at least two pass TDs in all games but one. |
| Jerick McKinnon | RB | @NO | $5,600 | 4% | Season-high workload last week. Well-suited for game script, matchup. |
| Antonio Gibson | RB | @DET | $5,600 | 6% | DET hemorrhaging fantasy points to RBs. WAS could look to hide Smith. |
| Sterling Shepard | WR | PHI | $5,000 | 2% | Quiet 25% target share since returning in Week 7 |
| K.J. Hamler | WR | @LV | $3,800 | 2% | Locked in as starting slot receiver. Game-breaking speed. |
| Brandon Aiyuk | WR | @NO | $5,700 | 2% | No Kittle, no Deebo, and possibly no Bourne to compete with for targets. |
| Eric Ebron | TE | CIN | $4,400 | 4% | CIN allowing 95% more PPR points to TEs than league average over last 5. |
