Photo: Imagn Images

All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.

Know Your Enemies

To place near the top of a large-field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players fit together under the salary cap, you’re left guessing what type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, with the goal of building your lineups differently, let’s think about how the crowd will attack each position:

Quarterback

We can safely expect heavy spending at quarterback this week with Russell Wilson ($7,300) and Dak Prescott ($7,200) facing off in what should be a bonanza for fantasy scoring (over/under 55.5 points). Those who don’t spend all the way up to the top will be tempted by the high floor/high ceiling combo both Kyler Murray ($6,800) and Cam Newton ($6,700) provide. Matchup-based punt plays below $6K may include Ryan Tannehill ($5,900), Carson Wentz ($5,800), and Mitchell Trubisky ($5,700), but they will be more the exception than the rule. The majority of your opponents will invest between 13-15% of their salary cap at quarterback this week.

Pivot Points: The low-to-mid-$6K tier has a few high-upside options who should go overlooked, including pass-happy Joe Burrow ($6,200) vs. the suspect Eagles secondary, and Ben Roethlisberger ($6,400) at home against Houston’s swiss-cheese defense.

Running Back

Paying up for a quarterback (and at least one high-priced receiver to stack him with) requires sacrifice elsewhere. Last week’s injury chaos opened up several value-plays at the running back position, namely Jerick McKinnon ($4,900), Mike Davis ($5,100), and Darrell Henderson ($5,400 - if Cam Akers and/or Malcolm Brown can’t go). Expect to see one of these players in the common roster construction alongside Miles Sanders ($6,400), whose salary barely increased after he returned to a workhorse role in Week 2. Ezekiel Elliott ($8,300) and Jonathan Taylor ($7,000) can also be made to fit chalky builds without much opportunity cost. A 35-40% cap spend is likely to be the norm (assuming a running back is used at Flex).

Pivot Points: Any running back in the $7-$8K range not named Elliott or Taylor will add leverage to your lineups, including Derrick Henry ($7,800), Dalvin Cook ($7,600), and James Conner ($6,700).

Wide Receiver

Tournament lineups will be littered with the top wide receivers from the Seattle at Dallas matchup. Amari Cooper ($6,500), CeeDee Lamb ($5,400), D.K. Metcalf ($6,500), and Tyler Lockett ($6,400) are all priced affordably enough to fit the common construction. Diontae Johnson ($5,400) has established himself as a target hog in Pittsburgh. He remains mispriced, which will land him in plenty of lineups as a WR2. Broncos rookie KJ Hamler ($3,000) might be considered a “free square” by many this week. His minimum salary allows for moderate-to-heavy spending at quarterback, two running back slots, and WR1. Overall, the field figures to spend lightly at wide receiver, with most entrants allotting about 30% of the salary cap to the position. The exception will be those who opt for DeAndre Hopkins ($7,900) in favor of a second high-priced running back.

Pivot Points: Michael Gallup ($5,500) will be the lowest-rostered Cowboys receiver and brings just as much upside to the table as any player in the projected shootout between Seattle and Dallas. The popularity of Cooper, Lockett, and Metcalf in the $6K-$7K range will cause entrants to gloss over WR1s in terrific matchups, including Mike Evans ($6,800), Odell Beckham ($6,300), Allen Robinson ($6,200), and Kenny Golladay ($6,200 - assuming he’s back this week).

Tight End

If Jack Doyle and George Kittle each miss a second straight game, many will chase the big Week 2 performances of Mo Alie-Cox ($3,800) and Jordan Reed ($4,000), respectively. Likewise, if we get news A.J. Brown still can’t go, Week 2 breakout Jonnu Smith ($5,200) will threaten for the top roster percentage at the position. A spend of about 8-10% at tight end will be the most common.

Pivot Points: The leverage is in the $4.5-$5K tier at tight end, where Hunter Henry ($4,800), Evan Engram ($5,000), and Zach Ertz ($5,100) are high-volume players who won’t draw much attention from the crowd.

Can You Trust The Chalk?

The term chalk in sports betting simply means the heavily-favored side of a bet. In DFS tournaments, these are the most popular players on the slate. Identifying and taking a stance on the chalk is a crucial part of tournament strategy. If you fade a chalky player, and he fails to deliver on his scoring projection, your lineup will be positioned to pass a large chunk of the field in the standings. But when a popular player lives up to expectations and you choose not to roster him, your lineups can quickly get buried in the standings.

Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s most popular players:

Miles Sanders (vs. CIN, $6,400, 38% rostered)

What more did Sanders have to do in his season debut to make DraftKings raise his salary by more than a measly $100? In his first game back from a hamstring injury, Sanders immediately operated as the Eagles bell cow. He played on 77% of the team’s snaps, handled 77% of their total backfield touches, and turned 27 opportunities (carries plus targets) into 131 yards and one touchdown (21.1 DraftKings points). Of the Bengals’ nine linebackers, four entered the season having never played in an NFL game, and it has shown. Enemy running backs have produced 42% more PPR fantasy points against Cincinnatti than the league average through two games. Sanders is good chalk. Roster him at a higher rate than the field.

DK Metcalf (vs. DAL, $6,500, 16% rostered)

Metcalf is huge, fast, wears cool eye-black, and makes splashy downfield plays. The crowd won’t be able to resist him against a struggling Dallas secondary that has allowed back-to-back 100-yard games to Robert Woods and Calvin Ridley. While Metcalf’s star is certainly on the rise, it’s worth noting he has yet to crack 20 DraftKings points this season and eclipsed that threshold only once as a rookie. You may need Metcalf to win this week, but history tells us the probability is lower than his percent-rostered projection. Keep your exposure below the field.

Kyler Murray (vs. DET, $6,800, 20% rostered)

Murray was the highest-rostered quarterback in last week’s Millionaire Maker by a 7% margin. Roster rates should flatten at the position this week, but the combination of Murray’s matchup, obvious stacking partner (Hopkins), and low price relative to Wilson and Prescott, should once again make him the most popular quarterback. We’ve quickly reached the point where Murray/Hopkins is a stack you need exposure to every week if you’re multi-entering tournaments. This week, the duo should be able to do whatever they want against the Lions toothless pass rush and banged-up secondary. Rushing yards and touchdowns should be the gravy on an excellent passing day for Murray, putting a 4x return on investment closer to a mid-range outcome than a ceiling. Make him one of your core quarterbacks.

Leverage Plays

You won’t necessarily be sneaking the players in this section past your opponents. But their percent rostered projection is lower than the probability they can appear in a first-place lineup. If you are multi-entering tournaments, raise your exposure higher than their projected roster percentage.

Michael Gallup (@SEA, $5,500, 12% rostered)

Let’s try this again. Gallup put up a dud after being featured in this space last week, which allows us the opportunity to double down at a slightly lower salary and percent-rostered projection. Despite being targeted 10 times to Amari Cooper’s 25 over the first two weeks, Gallup has only 47 fewer air yards than Cooper. He’s the riskiest Cowboys receiver since he’s targeted mostly on lower-percentage downfield throws, but that is exactly the reason he’s so attractive in tournaments. The Seahawks have allowed nine pass plays of 20+ yards through two games, which ties them for second-most in the league. Their 731 yards allowed to opposing wide receivers is nearly 40% more than the next closest team. And Seattle has allowed a staggering 84% more DraftKings points to opposing wideouts than league average. We have no reason to expect Cooper and CeeDee Lamb to be less involved this week, but every reason to believe Gallup can have 100+ yards and at least one touchdown given his usual volume.

D.J. Moore (@LAC, $6,100, 14% rostered)

Shout out to fellow Footballguy Ryan Zamichieli for calling out Moore in his excellent weekly Sharp Report:

“Christian McCaffrey commands significant volume both on the ground and through the air in Carolina’s offense, and his absence should lead to an increase in passing volume for the Panthers while simultaneously removing one high-volume target from the equation.”

Ryan is spot on. Many tournament entrants won’t look past Mike Davis and (maybe) Curtis Samuel as the main beneficiaries of McCaffrey missing time. But when an offense loses a central player, the targets consolidate for the entire offense. The best play-maker remaining on the team typically stands the most to gain since he’s more capable of earning and maximizing additional targets. Look for the Panthers to run their offense through Moore, who has the talent and volume to beat a difficult matchup against the Chargers secondary.

James Conner (vs. HOU, $6,700, 6% rostered)

What a difference a week made for Conner. After getting hurt and/or benched for Benny Snell in Week 1, Conner resumed his role as Pittsburgh’s bell-cow against the Broncos last week. He played on 77% of the offensive snaps, accounted for 78% of the backfield touches, and rolled to 23.1 DraftKings points in a difficult matchup. With workload concerns in the rearview, Conner is set up for a ceiling game against Houston. Pittsburgh is at home, favored by more than a field goal, and facing a Texans defense that has been trampled by Clyde Edwards-Helaire and the Baltimore rushing attack in their first two games. A big game from Conner will catapult you up the standings if Diontae Johnson busts as a potential chalk play.

Follow @PhilFBG