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If You're Drafting this Weekend

Dan Hindery's If You're Drafting this Weekend
By Dan Hindery, August 20, 2020

If You're Drafting this Weekend
Photo: Imagn Images

We will get you up to date with all of the latest information, ADP, and context you need to prepare for your upcoming drafts. The goal is to help you figure out who to target and when to target them in your drafts this weekend.

We are about a week away from draft season kicking into high gear but there are many drafts already taking place this weekend. It is also a great time to get active in best-ball drafts. The format is a fun and low-maintenance way to scratch the fantasy drafting itch. If nothing else, low-stakes best ball drafts are a great way to prepare for your most important season-long drafts. The latest ADP moves will be better reflected better in real cash drafts than in any mock draft. In this Beginner’s Guide to best ball drafts, we lay out all of the basics of the format and include links to all the different places one can play best ball for anyone who is not familiar with the basics. The best ball options have expanded in recent months. Underdog Fantasy and DraftKings have both launched new season-long best ball products featuring both normal 12-team leagues and also some massive tournaments with gigantic guaranteed prize pools.

Whether you are entering an early draft, having fun with best-ball leagues, or just want to get an early start on your research for your draft later this month, we will break down everything you need to know.

Here are the topics we will discuss in-depth this week:

  1. Injuries to be aware of
  2. ADP risers: early-round bell cow backs
  3. What to do if you miss on the early-round bell cow backs
  4. Where to target other recent ADP risers

1. Injuries to be aware of

While there have been quite a few minor injuries early in camp, there have not been any injuries that should have you overly concerned based upon what we know now. The following minor injuries may be worth considering as potential tie-breakers between players you have ranked similarly, however. When in doubt, minimize your risk as much as possible.

Miles Sanders (lower-body injury)

Sanders left practice Wednesday with a lower-body injury and is listed as “week-to-week.” The lack of details on the injury and the fact Sanders appears to be out for at least a couple weeks is definitely cause for some concern. There was even some early speculation that Sanders Week 1 availability could be in question. The consensus from Eagles beat writers is that the injury is not all that big of a deal, however.

Before the injury, everything indicated Sanders was primed for a huge season, especially in PPR leagues. In fact, reports touted that he could be even more heavily involved as a pass-catcher than he was when he racked up over 500 receiving yards as a rookie.

Take the positive reports on Sanders camp performance and bump him up a few spots. Then maybe bump him back down a spot or two because of injury certainty. You end up right back where you started -- Sanders is a strong late-first round draft option if you are drafting this weekend.

A.J. Green (tweaked hamstring)

Green did not make it very long when the Bengals put full pads on for the first time. He tweaked his hamstring early in practice Monday and went to the sideline to try to stretch it out. After the injury, beat writers saw him running at full speed and making cuts. It was even mentioned that he looked impressive doing so. Green has been held out of practice since the injury as a precaution. It is understandable for those who have been burnt by Green injuries the past two years may feel even more hesitant to pull the trigger given the recent news. However, all indications are that this is a pretty minor deal and will have no impact on Green’s outlook for Week 1 of the regular season.

If you are risk-averse, Green may not be your cup of tea. If unafraid to swing for the fences, Green has legitimate high-end WR1 upside that is difficult to ignore in the sixth round.

Tyreek Hill (hamstring injury)

Tyreek Hill left the field midway through Thursday’s practice with a hamstring injury. He pulled up while trying to track down a deep ball. Hill did jog off, which would seem to indicate the injury is not severe. However, hamstring injuries can linger sometimes. If you are drafting this weekend, you may want to break ties against Hill until we get the all-clear from Kansas City that the injury is indeed minor.

Ben Roethlisberger looking good

One of the bigger questions entering training camp was how Ben Roethlisberger would look after missing nearly all of the 2019 season with a major elbow injury. Roethlisberger’s health will have a major fantasy impact not only on his own stock but also that of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, James Conner, Eric Ebron, and the rest of the Steelers offense.

The training camp news on Roethlisberger’s health is about as positive as could have reasonably been expected. In fact, the reports on his recent performance have been positively glowing.

2. ADP Risers: Everyone is Chasing Bell Cows

The one consistent theme in recent drafts is that nearly everyone seems focused on getting at least potential bell-cow running backs early. The result is rising ADP for many of the top RB2 options. We will highlight who those guys are and share some thoughts on whether they are bargains or fades at their rising ADP.

James Conner (Early 3rd)

We started last week’s article with thoughts on taking advantage of early draft bargains and James Conner was the first player discussed. Over the last week, his ADP has already risen nearly 10 spots in Underdog's best ball drafts. Conner was a guy who could be had late in the third round in most drafts prior to this week. Now, he is going off the board in the late-second or early-third round of most drafts. The current ADP feels about right for Conner. It makes sense to chase potential bell cow backs, especially ones who will be involved as pass catchers. The positive reports on Ben Roethlisberger (see above) also bode well for Conner

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Jonathan Taylor (Mid-3rd)

Taylor is another back with bell-cow upside — though it may take a few weeks for him to push Marlon Mack aside. The early camp reports are predictably stoking the hype for Taylor. He rarely gets past the middle of the third round now and is regularly even sneaking into the late-second round. Teams do not draft running backs as early as Taylor was drafted (41st overall) without a plan to quickly get them involved in a prominent role. Given how consistently Taylor is giving positive mentions from the Indianapolis media and the fact he is already seeing plenty of reps with the first-team offense, Taylor is worth the risk in the third round.

Chris Carson (3rd)

Carson has risen slightly from the late-third round to early-to-mid third round. In his case, there is a good reason for the rise. Carson is coming off an injury. While the offseason reports were all optimistic, there is understandably just a bit of doubt until we actually see it on the field. Carson’s early performance in camp puts any concerns about his 2019 injury to bed.

Carson may have some room to rise even more. From a positional value standpoint, there looks to be a bigger gap between Carson and the running backs likely to be available in the sixth round than there is between wide receivers like Kenny Golladay or Mike Evans and the strong group of wide receivers still available in the sixth round.

3. What if you miss on the early round RBs?

The path of least resistance to putting together a nice looking fantasy roster in 2020 is to stock up on top running backs early and then take advantage of the strong wide receiver depth a bit later in the draft. However, as noted in the section above, we are seeing many of the top RB2 options creeping up towards the second round. Everyone has RB fever early in drafts. If current trends continue, there will come a point soon where the early-round values at quarterback, wide receiver, and tight end will be too good to pass up.

Is it possible to successfully pull off a strategy where you come out of the first four rounds with just one running back?

Based upon the recent news from camp, it appears you can pull it off by targeting the following backs:

Ronald Jones II: Breakout seeming more likely by the day

Personally, the case for Ronald Jones II in the fifth or sixth round was hard to believe in June and July. Videos of him training and reports of added weight without any loss of speed stoked the hype machine. However, the early reports from training camp have shown the offseason hype may actually be true in this case. More importantly, there have been plenty of reports and quotes from coaches about Jones’ improvement as a pass catcher and pass blocker.

Jones is starting to sneak into the late-fourth round in many high stakes drafts. However, he is still there in the early-sixth round in most normal drafts. If you have loaded up on other positions early, you can do worse than having Jones as a low-cost RB2. Or even as an RB3. If you are drafting this weekend, you should be able to get Jones in the fifth or sixth round. That is unlikely to be the case in a few weeks.

D’Andre Swift the next Alvin Kamara?

Throughout the offseason, my favorite rookie running back prospects were Clyde Edwards-Helaire and DAndre Swift. Much of the excitement about the duo comes due to the fact that both flashed serious pass-catching upside last year in the SEC. While we have seen the ADP of Edwards-Helaire and Taylor shoot way up, Swift has been a little bit of a forgotten man when it comes to the rookie running back class. He shouldn't be. Swift has been showing out as a massive mismatch catching passes out of the backfield or from the slot. More than one team reporter has mentioned the parallels between his game and Alvin Kamara’s game.

Further helping Swift’s 2020 prospects is the fact that Kerryon Johnson may not be as big an early impediment for snaps as many suspected. Johnson has had a number of knee injuries already and is getting more maintenance days off than is typical for such a young player. He is also sporting a bulky knee brace.

If you are drafting this weekend and miss out on Taylor and some of the more hyped backs in the first few rounds, Swift probably has just as much PPR upside and is available a few rounds later.

Antonio Gibson hype slowly building

The draft capital (#66 overall), opportunity (Derrius Guice cut), and crazy physical measurables (4.39-second forty-yard dash at 220 pounds) were all there before this week. Still, many were understandably skeptical because Gibson was a late bloomer in college and actually spent much of his time at Memphis playing wide receiver. Some of that skepticism should start to fade if Gibson keeps making big plays in training camp.

The reports from Wednesday and Thursday were fairly glowing when it came to Gibson. In an offense starved for playmakers, Gibson’s fantasy upside should not be discounted. He has risen to the eighth or ninth-round but could rise even higher if he keeps this up.

Damien Harris rising slower than expected

There is always some lag time when it comes to ADP and Harris is a great example. He is no longer available super late in drafts like he was all summer. However, his ADP has only risen to about the 12th round. He looks like a major bargain in that range given the increasing likelihood Sony Michel will miss a good chunk of the regular season and the positive reports on Harris’ development early in Patriots camp.

A.J. Dillon still a major bargain

Speaking of players who are generating hype but not seeing a big rise in ADP, Dillon looks like one of the top running back bargains on the board if you are drafting this weekend. In the 12th-14th round, you can do a lot worse than grabbing a second-round rookie running back with impressive physical tools. Yes, Aaron Jones is blocking him for now. Still, in this part of the draft, it is wise to bet on talent and upside. Dillon has both.

4. Other ADP Risers

Aside from the running backs detailed above, here are some other players with rising ADP.

Will Fuller (Fifth round)

Fuller has consistently been going off the board in the mid-to-late fifth round of best ball drafts the last few days. He is healthy, has added muscle in the offseason, and looks like the clear WR1 now that DeAndre Hopkins is in Arizona.

Fuller probably deserves to be going in this range. However, given his injury history, it would be nice to be able to get him at a bit more of a discount. Unless he falls to the sixth or seventh round, there are probably better options in this range of the draft.

Marquise Brown (Fifth round)

The buy-low window has slammed shut pretty quickly on Brown. The mid-round sleeper everyone loved is now going where he should be. There is nothing wrong with Brown in the fifth round. If he slides into the sixth round or later in your draft this weekend, snap him up.

Christian Kirk (Seventh round)

A slightly disappointing 2019 season and the arrival of DeAndre Hopkins snuffed out most of the buzz over Kirk. Recent comments from Kliff Kingsbury have changed all of that.

It is worth remembering that Kirk was slowed by an early-season ankle injury in 2019. In addition to missing three weeks, it also took away some of his explosiveness. Kirk is a post-hype breakout candidate in 2020.

Diontae Johnson (Seventh round)

The big ADP gap between Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster is starting to close but still larger than it should be. Johnson has “transformed his body” heading into his second season and looks primed for a breakout sophomore season. Even with the rising ADP, Johnson is a player to target in drafts.

Brandon Aiyuk (Ninth round)

We talked last week about how Henry Ruggs, Jalen Reagor, and some of the other rookie wide receivers were big ADP risers based upon strong camp openings. Aiyuk’s one of the biggest risers this week. He did not have as high a profile entering the draft as the rest of the first-round wide receivers but Aiyuk is not flying under the radar anymore given the injury to Deebo Samuel and blazing hot start to camp Aiyuk has had.

Once you get out of the first seven or eight rounds, you should be looking to fill out your wide receiver with depth with 2020 rookies. Yes, it is a tougher-than-normal season to make the transition to the NFL. On the other hand, this is also more talented than normal class of wide receiver prospects. By the time the fantasy playoffs roll around, expect many of these rookie first-round wide receivers to be great fantasy options.

Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags strategy Brandon Aiyuk Marquise Brown Chris Carson James Conner AJ Dillon Eric Ebron Clyde Edwards-Helaire Mike Evans Will Fuller V Antonio Gibson Kenny Golladay A.J. Green Damien Harris Tyreek Hill DeAndre Hopkins Diontae Johnson Kerryon Johnson Aaron Jones Ronald Jones II Alvin Kamara Christian Kirk Christian Kirksey Marlon Mack Sony Michel Jalen Reagor Aaron Rodgers Ben Roethlisberger Henry Ruggs III Deebo Samuel Miles Sanders JuJu Smith-Schuster D'Andre Swift Jonathan Taylor

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