Fantasy Football comes in all different shapes and sizes. While the typical league is based around 12 owners and teams building their best group of players, sometimes there is a desire to make the league bigger. Whether it is because there are a larger number of friends who all want to play, or if there is a desire for a tougher challenge - 14-team and 16-team leagues do exist, and there are several differences from “standard” 12-team leagues that anyone new (or even experienced) should know. Knowledge is power, and knowing what to expect before it happens leads to better preparation and a higher chance of success.
Some Basic Math
When it comes to bigger leagues, the talent pool dries up faster and the wait between picks feels that much longer. Just doing a little quick math shows that after eight rounds in a typical 12-team draft, 96 players will have been chosen. In a 16-team league, that number matches the number of players taken after SIX rounds, not eight. That means the teams are going to be thinner in talent across the board in larger leagues, and hitting on later picks means that much more to a starting lineup.
Positional Scarcity
One of the two major factors in larger leagues is positional scarcity. Ever since the NFL started to have bye weeks, getting backups has become a major concern of every fantasy team owner. With 16 franchises in a league, only a handful of teams are going to have two Top 20 quarterbacks or two Top 20 tight ends. Every NFL starting quarterback will be drafted in these leagues just due to the necessity of having a second starter, so the position’s importance is immediately elevated. Tight end comes next, but there are more than 32 in the league and one can argue that after the Top 25 are gone, there is not much difference amongst the remaining choices. It is still a reasonable expectation that every team will select two tight ends as well, so take that into draft plans.
Picking your Poison
With so many players going off the board every round, every team will have some form of weakness. Choosing which positions to address early (and thus those to leave for later) is a major decision, and should not be taken lightly. Looking at articles such as 7-11 Drafting where a focus is placed on what can be expected to be available after 60-75 players are selected should help with a plan to address shortfalls. With quarterbacks and elite talents likely gone early, the most likely position that can be addressed later in drafts is at wide receiver. Keep that in mind as you make your first six selections, as a strong plan likely involves owning a quarterback, two running backs, and a higher-valued wide receiver early. Take a long look at the ADP list in the 97-160 range to see what players may be good targets to round out your team, and jump on other positions early. Quite often strong builds involve one of each skill position (QB, RB, WR, and TE) plus at least one running back and probably a second wideout to have some balance as you head towards the middle of the draft.
Of course, running some mocks never hurts, and using a tool such as the Draft Dominator can give you a good feel for what players should be available when. If you do not know what draft pick you will have until Draft Day, try mocking from various spots in the order to see how a typical build might go and what adjustments you may have to make in each slot.
What about Depth?
We have now discussed a wider league - two to four extra franchises in the league - but what about the depth? This is an important factor to consider not only for Draft Day but also for season-long management.
The first step to understanding how deep your league is goes back to a math calculation once again. Take a look at how many roster spots your team has, and that will give you all you need to know about just how deep your league (and your draft) will be this year. The pivot point for comparison is 15 roster spots, as 15 x 16 teams is 240 slots - which exactly matches a reasonably deep 12-team league with 20-player rosters. Any larger league with more than 15 roster spots is heading into the deeper part of the player pool, and the implications here are significant. First, the deeper the pool, the more players that wind up on a roster - and of course that means the free agents and waiver wire talent pool will be proportionally shallow. Asking 16 owners to draft 20 spots will not only lead to a very long draft (320 picks!), but it pretty much guarantees that nearly any NFL player, kicker and team defense you can imagine will be on a roster by the end of a very late night. (Strong suggestion is to have this discussion with your commissioner well before Draft Day to see if a more reasonable roster size can be adopted.)
Decisions have to be made here as to how to best build your franchise. Every roster spot matters, but two starters of lesser fantasy importance have to be addressed - kicker and team defense. In nearly any style of a larger league, my recommendation is to not draft more than one kicker or defense, regardless of league depth. Allow me to explain why.
In a shallow but wide league, say 15 roster spots and 16 teams, that equals 240 players that will be drafted. The odds of at least a few kickers and defenses remaining in free agency are high, so there is no need to roster two. The other 13 spots are going to be critical to building a strong fantasy team, so spend them all on skill positions, including two quarterbacks and tight ends. Going back to positional scarcity, finding viable starters for bye weeks will be far harder at these positions, so drafting a backup is much more important than a second kicker or defense.
Now, consider a very deep and wide league - 20 roster spots for 16 teams. That’s 320 picks - 80 more than the earlier discussion, an increase of one-third of the previous league size. Some would argue that drafting backups at every roster spot is a must, but once again the considerations of what will be available in free agency have to weigh in here. Even if every other team takes two defenses and two kickers, odds are that by the time bye weeks roll around in October, at least one other owner will be pressed to make a tough add/drop decision and will cut a kicker or defense. That’s the time to pick up your bye week replacement, not on Draft Day. Given how shallow the player pool will be at the skill positions, 18 of 20 picks have to be spent to grab as much talent as possible, and then just hope for the best for a bye week replacement at kicker and defense.
Since both examples lead to rostering just one kicker and one defense, the bye weeks for each are slightly more significant. Ideally, your kicker and defense will have a later week bye (Week 9 or later) and also not have the same bye week as one another - preferably at least two weeks apart. This affords you maximum flexibility to wait on a bye week replacement, and also avoid the Week 8 run to the waiver wire with six teams resting.
One last point about depth is to strongly consider handcuffs. When leagues have numerous roster spots, nearly every backup tailback is going to find his way onto a roster. Do not be afraid to grab your backup for your top running back, even a round or two ahead of where a mock or ADP list would suggest. His value to you if anything should impact your RB1 will be huge, so do not discount that potential safety net. Secure your investment with an insurance policy.
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
