Cracking FanDuel: Week 20

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Cracking FanDuel Conference Championship

With this only being a two game slate, we are going to do this article a little bit differently this week. A two game slate is difficult, and not really advisable for cash games, but since this is primarily a cash game focused article, we’ll do our best to try to cover it. We will have a Sunday Morning update if there is breaking news.

Sunday Morning Update

Mistakenly, the primary cash game lineup had 5 Buffalo Bills in the lineup which is against FanDuel rules. The recommendation here is to swap John Brown for Allen Lazard. Originally, I had Lazard slated as a GPP flyer, however, after looking into this just a little bit more, I think he could be in a good spot to catch a deep pass this week. He will have a 5 inch height advantage over either Carlton Davis or Sean Murphy-Bunting, and the Buccaneers have been susceptible to the deep plays as evidenced by Tre'Quan Smith's two deep touchdowns last week and Tyreek Hill's 269 yard performance earlier this season. Lazard who has dealt with injuries for most of the season had his best game of the year last week against a good Rams secondary.

While I would still much prefer John Brown, I don't think there is another build I could do within cash that would make me feel more comfortable. The Bills defense is a tough one, but because they're so cheap, it is difficult to upgrade without going to a backup running back such as Darrell Williams or Ronald Jones II.

PRIMARY CASH - (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 123.6)

• QB Josh Allen, BUF, $8,500
• RB Devin Singletary, BUF, $5,800
• RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC $6,200
• WR Allen Lazard, GB, $5,700
• WR Chris Godwin, TB, $6,800
• WR Mike Evans, TB, $6,600
• TE Travis Kelce, KC, $8,500
• Flex WR Stefon Diggs, BUF, $8,300
• TD Buffalo, $3,400

Quarterback

There really are only two choices this week at the quarterback position. Based on the price, there is not enough of a discount to consider Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady in cash games compared to Patrick Mahomes II or Josh Allen’s upside. Both players are in tremendous spots, as this is projected to be the highest scoring game of the day. Rodgers has upside, but is a better GPP play mostly due to the running backs that could steal some of his upside on this slate.

Allen is the preferred option on this slate as the team has all but abandoned the run as their first 20 plays they did not call a scripted run to Devin Singletary. Allen provides a rushing upside that Mahomes likely doesn’t have with him dealing with a foot injury as well as the head injury that knocked him out of the game last week. It seems unlikely that the Chiefs will run many plays that give him the opportunity to scramble in this one.

Rankings:

1. Josh Allen
2. Patrick Mahomes II
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. Tom Brady

Running Back

The running back position is the most difficult position on this slate. Aaron Jones is alone at the top as the lone good running back, but the problem with Jones is that he is pricey at $8,000 and the Buccaneers are the top run defense in football and are even stronger now that Vita Vea will return this week. With the trio of elite wide receivers as well as Travis Kelce at the tight end position, it seems unlikely that we will be able to get to Jones in this slate.

On the lower end, Devin Singletary, Leonard Fournette, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (assuming he plays) are all decent options on this slate.

Devin Singletary is a bit of a risk, but assuming the Bills run the ball at all, he will be the guy as Zach Moss continues to be out with an ankle injury. Singletary carried the ball just seven times last week, but did catch three passes against a good Baltimore defense. This week, he gets to face a Kansas City defense that although they did well to keep the Browns in check, they did allow 101 yards rushing and 4.7 yards per carry on the season.

Leonard Fournette seems to be making a post-season charge as both he and Ronald Jones II had a strong game last week against New Orleans. What separates Fournette over Jones however is his receiving upside as he caught five passes last week and has caught nine over his last two games. The Packers are a run funnel defense in that their pass defense is as good as just about any team in the NFL, but did allow the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. They especially struggled against receiving backs as they allowed the third-most receptions to opposing running backs and the third most rushing yards to the position. This seems like a prime opportunity for Fournette to have 5-6 receptions and see the majority of the playing time with Jones’ struggles in the passing game.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be returning this week, which is great news for the Chiefs, and a potential dilemma for fantasy managers this week. Darrell Williams looked great in limited playing time this week, and would be a great play if Edwards-Helaire were to miss this game. However, with Edwards-Helaire looking like he will be active, he is likely the guy to potentially target in Kansas City. The Bills have had their issues stopping the run on the season as they are allowing 97 yards rushing per game, and 0.9 touchdowns per game which is tied for the sixth-most in the NFL. Edwards-Helaire dominated the first time that these two teams met up, as he ran the ball 26 times for 161 yards while also catching four passes. While it is difficult to imagine that the Chiefs will be able to do this again, they may look at running the ball more especially with Mahomes less than 100% in this game. The biggest issue with Edwards-Helaire is his health status, as we just don’t know how healthy he will be in this game and how much workload he will see.

1. Devin Singletary
2. Aaron Jones (If you can fit him in, he is fine, but just difficult to find a way to do it)
3. Leonard Fournette
4. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
5. Ronald Jones II

Wide Receiver

The wide receiver position is the position that is going to make or break your slate. At the top, you have to make a choice between Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs. While Davante Adams is likely the safest play of the three, he is the most expensive and may be difficult to fit in alongside Travis Kelce. If you can, Adams is as consistent as just about any receiver as he has scored a touchdown in 11 of his last 12 games, and has the most red zone targets of any wide receiver.

If you are unable to afford Adams, Stefon Diggs is a solid number two this week as he has topped 100 yards in five of his last six games while facing some very difficult defenses in Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New England, and had good games earlier this season against tough corners in Arizona and San Francisco.

Once you get past the elite options, the mid-range is an interesting one, especially with the injury to Antonio Brown. One strategy that is intriguing this week is to play both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans at $6,800 and $6,600 collectively. While one of them will likely draw a difficult matchup in Jaire Alexander, collectively with the limited options in Tampa Bay, they should reach value together.

On the low-end it gets pretty thin at the receiver position pretty quickly. John Brown and Cole Beasley are both intriguing options, due to their price. They are not the most consistent wide receivers, but we need to take some chances on this slate to fit in some of the much-needed higher end options. Of the two, John Brown is the player that I prefer simply, because there is more upside than with Cole Beasley. Brown has topped 60 yards in 4 of his last 5 games and caught 8 passes against Baltimore last week.

Once you get past Brown/Beasley, you get into the range of hoping a big play occurs, as you have to choose players such as Allen Lazard, Mecole Hardman, or Marques Valdes-Scantling which are fine GPP options, but not great cash game plays.

1. Davante Adams
2. Stefon Diggs
3. Chris Godwin
4. Tyreek Hill
5. Mike Evans
6. John Brown
7. Cole Beasley
8. Allen Lazard

Tight End

In cash this week, don’t overthink it, play Travis Kelce. Robert Tonyan Jr is a fine GPP play, but Kelce’s consistency is as high as just about any player on this slate, and the difference between his point production and the next closest tight end will b the biggest value for your dollar on this slate.

Defense

There really is no clear-cut defense on this slate. The defense, I prefer is simply the defense that is the cheapest which is the Bills. The pass rush of the Bills caused all sorts of havoc last week against the Chiefs, and with Mahomes being limited this week, it could lead to some sacks or some turnovers which we have seen from Mahomes late in the season.

LINEUPS

SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH - (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 124.9)

• QB Josh Allen, BUF, $8,500
• RB Devin Singletary, BUF, $5,800
• RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC $6,200
• WR John Brown, BUF, $5,600
• WR Chris Godwin, TB, $6,800
• WR Mike Evans, TB, $6,600
• TE Travis Kelce, KC, $8,500
• Flex WR Stefon Diggs, BUF, $8,300
• TD Buffalo, $3,400

SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) –CASH LINEUP- Aaron Jones (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 123.2)

• QB Josh Allen, BUF, $8,500
• RB Devin Singletary, BUF, $5,800
• RB Aaron Jones, GB, $8,000
• WR Davante Adams, GB, $8,900
• WR Chris Godwin, TB, $6,800
• WR Mike Evans, TB, $6,600
• TE Robert Tonyan Jr, GB, $5,700
• Flex Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC, $6,200
• TD Buffalo, $3,400

SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP LINEUP BUF/KC Stack(DD PROJECTED POINTS = 119.7)

• QB Josh Allen, BUF, $8,500
• RB Devin Singletary, BUF, $5,800
• RB Ronald Jones II, TB, $5,600
• WR Tyreek Hill, KC, $8,400
• WR Stefon Diggs, BUF, $8,300
• WR John Brown, BUF, $5,600
• TE Robert Tonyan Jr, GB, $5,700
• Flex RB Aaron Jones, GB, $8,000
• TD Buffalo, $3,400

NEW FEATURE: PLAYER POOL

Projected points are static as of Saturday morning and will not be updated throughout the weekend. Green means great cash game play, yellow means should be in consideration in cash game lineups. Red means only play him if the injury is confirmed.