Cracking FanDuel Week 14

Photo: Imagn Images

Sunday Morning Update

Both David Johnson and Brandin Cooks will miss this game due to injury. This opens up opportunity for Keke Coutee to essentially be one of if not the top receiver on the board. Coutee showed what he can do last week with 8 receptions for 141 yards last week and will be their only consistent threat in the passing game. Coutee has been someone who has been on the scouting communities radar for quite some time, and at just 23 years-old has upside to continue to develop and break out this week. He is likely to see 8-10 targets simply because the Texans have no other wide receivers to throw to. Players such as Isaiah Coulter or Steven Mitchell Jr. are high risk players that can not be considered cash game plays.

If you're comfortable punting the tight end, and going with both DeAndre Washington and Keke Coutee, it opens up a lot of different options. The key decision will be where you spend your remaining salary as Davante Adams and Derrick Henry still remain fixtures within the cash game lineup this week.

Leonard Fournette was a late scratch making Ronald Jones II one of the top plays on this slate.

Primary Cash Lineup #1- Projected 130.0

• QB Patrick Mahomes II, $8,700
• RB Derrick Henry, TEN, $9,600
• RB DeAndre Washington, MIA, $4,800
• WR Davante Adams, GB, $9,600
• WR Corey Davis, TEN, $6,800
• WR Keke Coutee, HOU, $5,600
• TE Cole Kmet, CHI, $4,600
• Flex RB Ronald Jones II, TB, $6,300
• TD Dallas Cowboys, $3,500

Alternative Cash Lineup- Derrick Henry, Davante Adams, Aaron Jones- Projected 128.9

• QB Taysom Hill, NO, $7,700
• RB Derrick Henry, TEN, $9,600
• RB DeAndre Washington, MIA, $4,800
• WR Davante Adams, GB, $9,600
• WR Curtis Samuel, CAR, $5,900
• WR Keke Coutee, HOU, $5,600
• TE Cole Kmet, CHI, $4,600
• Flex RB Aaron Jones, GB, $8,700
• TD Dallas Cowboys, $3,500

GPP Lineup- Projected 129.8

• QB Ryan Tannehill- TEN, $7,900
• RB Ronald Jones II, TB, $6,300
• RB DeAndre Washington, MIA, $4,800
• WR Davante Adams, GB, $9,600
• WR Corey Davis, TEN, $6,800
• WR Keke Coutee, HOU, $5,600
• TE Cole Kmet, CHI, $4,600
• Flex RB David Montgomery, CHI, $6,600
• TD Chicago Bears, $4,100

Saturday Afternoon Update:

I had to reference that there were not a lot of injuries and sure enough 1 hour afterwards we have a game changer. Myles Gaskin has been placed on the Covid-19 list and will not play. This leaves only DeAndre Washington, Patrick Laird, and Elijah McGuire. This news is still unfolding, but it appears that DeAndre Washington will receive the bulk of the work this week and is an excellent cash game play over Giovani Bernard. Washington had 13 carries the last time Gaskin missed and that was with Matt Breida in the lineup, and you can reasonably expect him to have 16-20 touches this week. At just $4,800 he will likely become one of the top plays on this slate.

Currently have two different cash game lineups based on the news and will continue to update.

Lineup #1

• QB Taysom Hill, NO, $7,700
• RB Derrick Henry, TEN, $9,600
• RB DeAndre Washington, MIA, $4,800
• WR Davante Adams, GB, $9,600
• WR Corey Davis, TEN, $6,800
• WR Robby Anderson, CAR, $6,500
• TE Cole Kmet, CHI, $4,600
• Flex RB David Montgomery, CHI, $6,600
• TD Dallas Cowboys, $3,500

Lineup #2

• QB Philip Rivers, IND, $7,000
• RB Derrick Henry, TEN, $9,600
• RB DeAndre Washington, MIA, $4,800
• WR Davante Adams, GB, $9,600
• WR Calvin Ridley, ATL, $8,100
• WR Curtis Samuel, CAR, $5,900
• TE Cole Kmet, CHI, $4,600
• Flex RB David Montgomery, CHI, $6,600
• TD Dallas Cowboys, $3,500

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

• Green Bay (at Detroit) – 31.25 points
• Seattle (at NY Jets) – 30 points
• Tennessee (at Jacksonville) – 30 points
• Tampa Bay (vs Minnesota) – 29.5 points
• Kansas City (at Miami) – 29 points

RECAP OF LAST WEEK

After a few good weeks in a row, and an overall positive season, last week was one of the toughest weeks I’ve ever had as seemingly nothing went right in some of the close decisions that were being made. As Bill Belichick would say, “We’re on to Cincinnati”, but first, let’s check back to see where

What went right?

• Philip Rivers was a great cash value play last week compared to some of the other plays that were popular (Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Mitchell Trubisky, etc).

What went wrong?

• Pretty much everything last week. The biggest failure I had was the Derrick Henry call. The game script got away from the Titans very early and Henry was a part of that as he fumbled which is something that he never does.
• Talking myself into Dalvin Cook after fading him all week.
• Choosing Myles Gaskin over David Montgomery, I had both of these players as great plays, but made the wrong decision.
• Denzel Mims getting tackled at the half-yard line.

CASH GAME STRATEGY WEEK 14- Not a lot of Value

The way that my process looks is that I spend Tuesday-Friday thinking about a player pool that I like. Think heavily about matchups, look into numbers, and try to get a general sense as far as key injuries that could impact the slate. On Saturday, that’s when I start building the lineups, and the first thing I do, is just run 150 lineups with no adjustments through Footballguys Optimizer tool just to see if there are any optimal lineup construction ideas that I hadn’t been thinking about.

What is crazy about this week is that there are over 100 lineups that are all within 1 optimal point of each other. The key to this week will be about hitting on the outliers. Player projections are intended to be the most likely outcome of a player’s performance. However, what we all know is that there is a fairly wide range of outcomes with these players and projecting players is not an exact science even if there are a lot of work and statistical models behind them.

For this week, the key is going to be finding the one or two players that have the big breakout game, and avoiding the players that are going to underperform their projection. There are no obvious plays this week as we stand on Saturday morning as there have not been the injuries that we are used to seeing. With that said, it is making me want to go with quality in Davante Adams and Derrick Henry. Davante Adams is as consistent as they come when it comes to the wide receiver position as he has scored a touchdown in each of his last seven games and is really the primary red zone target in this offense even compared to Aaron Jones. With the Packers projected to be one of the highest scoring teams of this week, Adams is in a tremendous spot this week.

INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?

Julio Jones will miss this week with a hamstring injury. Calvin Ridley sees a pretty significant boost this week as he is averaging 11 targets with Julio outside of the lineup.

Drew Brees is eligible to return with the ribs injury, but will not play this week leaving Taysom Hill as the starter once again. Hill has been good in his three starts mostly on the ground as he has ran for 59 yards per game and four touchdowns. Hill also looked the most comfortable as a passer last week as he threw for 237 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Jalen Hurts will start in Philadelphia due to the Eagles benching Carson Wentz. Hurts provides a nice rushing floor to this slate as he is likely to run the ball a minimum of 8-10 times and the team is going to not hold back the reigns of the rookie as they need to figure out what they have in him. While there is risk, his price is a great one this week.

The Panthers have some Covid issues at the wide receiver position. DJ Moore will miss this week, while Curtis Samuel who was on the list earlier this week is expected to play in this one. This opens up tremendous value for both Samuel and Robby Anderson both who could be rostered at a tremendous price point this week.

WEATHER CONCERN

There is rain expected in the New York Jets vs Seattle game although the winds don’t appear to be particularly bad in this one. This is not a game that is being targeted for cash this week, so one that you likely do not need to worry too much about. It may limit Russell Wilson’s ceiling as well as DK Metcalf’s ceiling a little bit, but nothing major.

KEY CASH CORE

Derrick Henry- $9,600

Part of fantasy football and particularly DFS is having a short memory. Yes, Derrick Henry struggled last week, as he only had 15 carries which was his lowest of the season due to the game script getting out of hand for the Titans. The reality here is that there is no reason to think that Henry is going to only see 15 carries again unless you believe that the Jaguars are going to get out to a 14+ point lead as those are the only three times in the last two seasons that Henry has had 15 or less carries. Henry is still leading the league in yards on the season and is second in touchdowns trailing only Dalvin Cook who is not in play in cash this week due to the difficult matchup against Tampa Bay.

If there is any concern about Henry it is that the Jaguars shut him down in their prior meeting this year holding him to just 84 yards on 25 carries. While they were strong in this matchup, on the year they’re allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, and Henry is the clear cream of the crop player on this slate.

Corey Davis, $6,800

What Corey Davis has been doing over the last three games is simply remarkable as he is averaging 121.6 yards per game receiving. What’s even more impressive is that two of those games have been against good secondaries in Baltimore and Indianapolis. The former top-five pick has always had talent, but inconsistency has been the main drag for Davis as he appeared to get into a rut after a solid rookie season. By taking Davis, you’re getting two of the three key cogs in the Titans offense which is projected to score 30 points this week which from a floor standpoint should be in a tremendous spot especially as A.J. Brown appears to be struggling a little bit as of late relying on the deep play to salvage his fantasy performance.

Giovani Bernard, $5,700

This is a play that you aren’t going to feel great about when you click on the name, as he is not a talented running back. In this price range, players such as Ronald Jones II may have a higher ceiling, and Wayne Gallman may have a higher floor, but Bernard is in a spot this week at just $5,700, that salary becomes a problem even getting up to Jones or Gallman as your third running back. As bad as Bernard is going to be, he is going to be popular this week mostly driven by the matchup as Dallas’ defense has allowed 137 yards rushing per game this season which is the second-most in the NFL. With Brandon Allen being less than 100%, one would expect that Bernard will see more volume than he otherwise would particularly against this putrid Dallas defense. Also in Bernard’s favor are the Vegas props, which can sometimes be used if projections seem out of whack, but in this case they are aligned as he is projected for about 74 yards and a 50% chance at a touchdown.

Cole Kmet $4,600

You’ll see why we are going down this low on the primary lineup build, but the reality is there just are not a lot of cost savings this week. Outside of Travis Kelce, who while I’d love to get in the lineup, simply can’t afford to put him in the lineup, there is not another tight end I feel great about paying up for. Yes, Darren Waller broke the slate last week with 200 yards against the Jets, but I can’t express it enough that in his five previous games he had a total of 197 yards. That simply is not good enough for a $7,100 tight end.

The question really came down to Cole Kmet vs Drew Sample here, as both are near minimum salary and trending in the right direction. This one was close and while I love the safety of Sample, currently going with Kmet. The top tight end in this rookie class, Kmet is taking over the position away from Jimmy Graham as the Bears look to develop talent now that their season is largely over. Over the last two weeks, Kmet has been on the field for 78% of the plays compared to Graham who was on the field for just 42% of the snaps.

Drew Sample is a safe play due to the consistency he brings to the position. There is a lot to like about Sample as well who has gone under the radar in Cincinnati, but he was a second-round draft pick in the 2019 draft and is becoming a favorite receiver of Brandon Allen who throughout his career dating back to college has relied upon the tight end position

LINEUPS

SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 127.7)

• QB Taysom Hill, NO, $7,700
• RB Derrick Henry, TEN, $9,600
• RB Gio Bernard, CIN, $5,700
• WR Davante Adams, GB, $9,600
• WR Corey Davis, TEN, $6,800
• WR Curtis Samuel, CAR, $5,900
• TE Cole Kmet, CHI, $4,600
• Flex RB David Montgomery, CHI, $6,600
• TD Dallas Cowboys, $3,500

SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – CASH+/ GPP Fade Derrick Henry(DD PROJECTED POINTS = 127.5)

• QB Ryan Tannehill, TEN, $7,900
• RB James Robinson, JAX, $8,000
• RB Gio Bernard, CIN, $5,700
• WR Davante Adams, GB, $7,600
• WR Corey Davis, TEN, $6,800
• WR Keke Coutee, HOU, $5,600
• TE T.J. Hockenson, DET, $6,000
• Flex RB David Montgomery, CHI $6,600
• TD Dallas Cowboys, $3,500

SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) –FBG OPTIMAL LINEUP (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 132.3)

• QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC, $8,900
• RB Gio Bernard, CIN, $5,700
• RB David Montgomery, CHI, $6,600
• WR Keke Coutee, HOU, $5,600
• WR Robby Anderson, CAR, $6,500
• WR Calvin Ridley, ATL, $8,100
• TE Darren Waller, LV, $7,100
• Flex RB James Robinson, JAX, $8,000
• TD Dallas Cowboys, $3,500

NEW FEATURE: PLAYER POOL

Projected points are static as of Saturday morning and will not be updated throughout the weekend. Green means great cash game play, yellow means should be in consideration in cash game lineups.