Cracking FanDuel Week 11

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Sunday Morning Update

Update #2 11:50 AM EST

It appeared that Teddy Bridgewater was going to be back this week, but after Adam Schefter reported he would be active, the team de-activated him. PJ Walker will start. Detroit's defense gets a significant upgrade.

Update #1: 10:20 AM EST

A few key philosophical changes this week mostly surrounding the news that it sounds like Kerryon Johnson will split carries with Adrian Peterson more than originally expected. How it will shake out remains to be seen, but based on Ian Rappoport's report as of this morning it appears to be an avoid for Peterson in cash games this week.

So from a lineup construction standpoint, there are essentially two lineup options. The first, is to go with James Conner and completely re-tool the lineup to a more balanced approach. Conner is in a great spot this week against Jacksonville, has the second-best prop chances to score a touchdown outside of Dalvin Cook, and should be heavily utilized in this game. Of course when taking any Steelers player that comes with its own risks as there are so many options for Pittsburgh to go to and we have seen where Conner gets game scripted out of being a 15-20 touch guy. However, Jacksonville is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs so the upside is definitely there especially when they face quality running backs as they have allowed 80 or more yards to all running backs with the talent of Conner (David Johnson, D'Andre Swift, Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry)

The second option is to find an additional $900 and upgrade to Duke Johnson Jr. Duke poses his own sort of risks as we saw last week in that the Deshaun Watson doesn't pass the ball to running backs as often as he should, and Duke as a pure running back is somewhat limited averaging 3.1 yards-per-carry this season. The matchup is also a good one for Duke as New England is allowing 4.9 yards-per-carry. While Duke is a great value, I'm just not convinced that he is the type of player I want to determine my cash game results this week.

Primary Cash Lineup- Projected 135.7 This is the secondary cash game lineup from below

• QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,400
• RB Kalen Ballage, LAC, $5,800
• RB James Conner, PIT, $7,000
• WR Tee Higgins, CIN, $6,500
• WR Jakobi Meyers, NE, $6,000
• WR Keenan Allen, LAC, $8,000
• TE Taysom Hill, NO, $4,500
• Flex RB Dalvin Cook, MIN, $10,500
• TD Atlanta Falcons, $3,200

Duke Johnson Jr Cash Lineup- Projected 137.8 I'm not playing this one, but for any believers in Duke Johnson Jr

• QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,400
• RB Kalen Ballage, LAC, $5,800
• RB Duke Johnson Jr, HOU, $6,000
• WR Terry McLaurin, WAS, $7,300
• WR Jakobi Meyers, NE, $6,000
• WR Keenan Allen, LAC, $8,000
• TE Taysom Hill, NO, $4,500
• Flex RB Dalvin Cook, MIN, $10,500
• TD Detroit Lions, $3,500

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

• Pittsburgh (at JAC) – 31 points
• New Orleans (vs ATL) – 28 points
• LA Chargers (vs NYJ) – 28 points
• Baltimore (vs TEN) – 27.5 points
• Minnesota (vs DAL) – 27.5 points

CASH GAME STRATEGY WEEK 11

What to do with Alvin Kamara?

The biggest question you have to ask yourself this week as you’re creating cash game lineups is what to do with Alvin Kamara? The decision to play Kamara will likely determine the build of your cash game for the week as if you decide to go with Kamara, it essentially forces you into taking players such as Alex Smith at $6,600, and force you into a player such as Adrian Peterson as your third running back. It can certainly work and will work if this week is anything like last week where Kamara had three touchdowns, but there are some concerns particularly with Taysom Hill as the starter.

This week, I’m fading Kamara in my primary cash game lineups. The cost to have both him and Dalvin Cook is too great, and playing him seems to be a bit of recency bias as he had three touchdowns last week. The odds of him scoring three touchdowns last week were 15/1 (13/1 this week). He is a player who the industry is quickly overlooking that he only had 15 total rushing yards last week on just 8 carries, and a majority of his work came through the air as he had 83 yards with a traditional drop back passer as his quarterback. With Taysom Hill, there is risk that Hill won’t fully read through his progressions and dump the ball off, but instead will have one or two reads and then run. Going with one star player in Dalvin Cook seems to be the best approach with a balanced approach for the rest of the lineup.

ROADMAP

INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?

Drew Brees was placed on IR this week with a rib injury. Originally it was thought that Jameis Winston would start, however Diana Russini is reporting that Taysom Hill will start this week. FanDuel has Hill as a tight end and at just $4,500 is a must start this week.

Note: Footballguys tech team is currently working on the Taysom Hill issue. The issue is that DraftKings and Yahoo pull from the same database and we never thought there would be a day where a player would be a different position on a different DFS site.

Teddy Bridgewater looks extremely unlikely to play with a knee injury. P.J. Walker will get the start and the XFL standout is intriguing on certain sites, but on FanDuel at $6,500 he’s just a little too expensive for you to need to go to him this week. Robby Anderson is intriguing and was Walker’s teammate at Temple, so there could be a connection there.

Kenny Golladay will miss once this week with a toe injury and Danny Amendola will miss with a hip injury. This leaves the Lions incredibly thin at the wide receiver position. Marvin Jones could be interesting, but is by no means a must start.

D’Andre Swift is out with a concussion. This should give Adrian Peterson a majority of the carries in a favorable matchup against Carolina this week. Peterson will likely share some workload with Kerryon Johnson, but at just $5,100 makes for an excellent cash game play this week.

Joe Mixon will miss another week with a foot injury which will once again put Gio Bernard into the starting role in Cincinnati. Not a lot to get excited about with Bernard as the matchup is a neutral one against Washington and he is priced properly at $6,300.

WEATHER CONCERN

No issues this week

KEY CASH CORE

Kalen Ballage- $5,800

Ballage has earned high praise from the Chargers coaching staff this week. Ballage has seen 40 touches over the last two weeks and the big running back has shown the ability to produce both as a receiver and as a runner. Ballage is going up against his former team after they cut him earlier this season and Ballage is very familiar with the Gase system as Gase drafted him in 2018 and then brought him into New York. The Jets are allowing 101 yards rushing per game and almost a touchdown per contest to opposing running backs and with Ballage being the primary running back this should be a great week for him to pay off his deflated salary.

Lamar Jackson- $8,400

Don’t look now, but Lamar Jackson is starting to show signs that he is reverting back to his 2019 form. Over his last four games, Jackson has averaged 72 yards rushing per game and has two rushing touchdowns. Adding to this, he’s completed 72% and 83% of his passes over the last two weeks. The key here is that the matchup is an extremely favorable one as the Titans are allowing 287 yards passing and 2.2 passing touchdowns per game. Even in the Wild Card loss in the playoffs last year, Jackson ran for 143 yards against this Titans defense and threw for 365 yards and that defense was a much better one than this year’s version. Expect a big game from Jackson this week.

Dalvin Cook- $10,500

This one doesn’t need much explanation as even what was perceived as a “bad game” by Dalvin Cook’s standards he ran for 96 yards last week against the Bears. Cook has turned into the premiere running back in the NFL as he’s averaging 30 touches a game over his last three weeks and likely should be well over $11,000 in salary this week. This week Cook is facing off against a perfect matchup as he’s going up against a Dallas defense that is allowing the third-most rushing yards per game at 127 per contest and are averaging nearly a touchdown per game on the ground.

Tee Higgins- $6,500

Higgins since Week 4 has been one of the best players in the NFL, as he is tied for 3^rd in receiving yards per game with Stefon Diggs at 88 yards per game trailing only Julio Jones and Davante Adams. If there is a knock on him it is that he is big play dependent, very similar to DK Metcalf although his floor is higher for the 6’4’’ Higgins. Since Week 4, Higgins does not have a game under 60 yards and has topped 70 in all but one of his contests. While the matchup doesn’t scream as a must play, the price for this quality of player is too great. Higgins plays a very similar role in the Bengals offense to Marvin Jones who torched Washington last week for 8 receptions for 96 yards and a touchdown.

LINEUPS

SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 139.1)

• QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,400
• RB Kalen Ballage, LAC, $5,800
• RB Dalvin Cook, MIN, $10,500
• WR Tee Higgins, CIN, $6,500
• WR Jacobi Meyers, NE, $6,000
• WR Davante Adams, GB, $9,500
• TE Taysom Hill, NO, $4,500
• Flex RB Adrian Peterson, DET, $5,100
• TD Cincinnati Bengals, $3,700

SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – SECONDARY CASH (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 136.0)

• QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,400
• RB Kalen Ballage, LAC, $5,800
• RB James Conner, PIT, $7,000
• WR Tee Higgins, CIN, $6,500
• WR Jacobi Meyers, NE, $6,000
• WR Keenan Allen, LAC, $8,000
• TE Taysom Hill, NO, $4,500
• Flex RB Dalvin Cook, MIN, $10,500
• TD Atlanta Falcons, $3,200

SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) –Cook/Kamara Lineup (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 132.0)

• QB PJ Walker, CAR, $6,500
• RB Kalen Ballage, LAC, $5,800
• RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $9,700
• WR Tee Higgins, CIN, $6,500
• WR Jacobi Meyers, NE, $6,000
• WR Terry McLaurin, WAS, $7,300
• TE Taysom Hill, NO, $4,500
• Flex RB Dalvin Cook, MIN, $10,500
• TD Atlanta Falcons, $3,200

NEW FEATURE: PLAYER POOL

Projected points are static as of Saturday morning and will not be updated throughout the weekend. Green means great cash game play, yellow means should be in consideration in cash game lineups.