Cracking FanDuel: Week 4

Photo: Imagn Images

Saturday Night Update:

The Lions/Saints game is currently in question. With two players currently in the primary lineup, this news will be incredibly important in the next few hours.

Sunday Morning Update

Thankfully the Saints/Lions game will continue this week as the test appeared to be a false negative.

Adam Trautman continues to be a guy who is getting a ton of love. The third-round rookie out of Dayton will fill in for Jared Cook this week and at just the site minimum, allows some very creative lineup builds. The challenge that we have is that even though as much as I like Hockenson's upside this week, I don't love it enough to prevent me from saving the extra $1,400 in salary this week. Long story short, this allows for an upgrade from Kenyan Drake to Dalvin Cook which is a sizable one and you could even get to Ezekiel Elliott if you wanted full Cowboys exposure.

New Primary Lineup

• QB Dak Prescott, DAL, $8,200
• RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,800
• RB Mike Davis, CAR, $6,300
• WR- Amari Cooper, DAL, $7,100
• WR Odell Beckham, CLE, $6,600
• WR DK Metcalf, SEA, $6,900
• TE Adam Trautman, NO, $4,000
• Flex RB- Dalvin Cook, MIN $8,700
  • TD Cincinnati Bengals, $3,400

NEW FEATURE THIS WEEK

This week, I added a feature that outlines the cash game plays that show all the players, h-value, and projections on our slight and highlighting the criteria with green being my favorite cash game plays and yellow being players who should still be within cash game consideration.

Let me know your thoughts on this one via email knotts@footballguys.com or via Twitter

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

• • Los Angeles Rams(vs NYG) 30.5 points

  • Dallas (vs CLE) 30.5 points

  • Seattle (at MIA) – 30 points

  • Kansas City (vs NE)- 30 points

  • Baltimore (vs Was)– 29.5 points

  • New Orleans (vs Det)- 29 points

• • Houston (vs Min)- 29 points

CASH GAME STRATEGY WEEK 4

Changing of the Game- Quarterback Position

The NFL game before our eyes is a changing and evolving product that is becoming more and more like college football almost weekly. The way that the fantasy game is setup, is that it penalizes non-mobile quarterbacks to the point where you need rushing upside from your quarterback or it is extremely unlikely that you will have a chance to win. If you look at the top five fantasy quarterbacks all of them are mobile (Murray, Prescott, Allen, Mahomes, Wilson). Historically, mobile quarterbacks threw for less passing yards which offset the upside that they got from the rushing upside, but that is no longer the case. Of those top 5 quarterbacks, three of them are averaging over 300 yards passing per game (Prescott, Allen, Wilson). Until the pricing adjusts accordingly for these elite quarterbacks on FanDuel, you need to consider starting a quarterback who has rushing upside.

Being Flexible

We are now in the part of the season where Covid is starting to be a concern. We have seen Tennessee and Pittsburgh already be cancelled and some breaking news as Cam Newton will miss this week with Covid. Expect more and more of these types of situations to occur throughout this season which will make changing of cash game lineups incredibly important. Being flexible and if you don't have the ability to look on Sunday mornings to potentially change your lineup, you might want to think about sitting this week out.

INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?

• Michael Thomas will miss another week with an ankle injury, and Jared Cook will miss a groin strain.. This makes Alvin Kamara almost a must start this week against the Lions. More to come on Kamara further in this article, but he is the primary offensive threat in this game. Adam Trautman could get some love in GPP's, but the pricing difference is not big enough to go down to Trautman.
• Chris Carson is questionable with a knee injury, although it looks like he is going to play this week. If he was a scratch this week, Carlos Hyde would bump up to being in cash game consideration.
• Leonard Fournette will miss this game with an ankle injury. This will give the opportunity once again to Ronald Jones II who has not had the break out game yet that we have hoped for, but in a game where the Buccaneers have limited options, Jones should be in consideration as a cheap running back.
• Chris Godwin will miss this week with a hamstring injury this week. This should make Mike Evans a strong cash game play this week and should be one of the more popular plays this week.
• Cam Newton has tested positive for Covid-19 and will miss this week. This will be a significant loss for the Patriots in a big game against the Chiefs. This will make the Chiefs defense one of the top plays this week as they will likely see Brian Hoyer as the starter this week although it could be Jarrett Stidham. This likely also impacts Patrick Mahomes II and the Chiefs upside as it decreases the chances that this game turns into a shootout. Keep an eye on this one as the story evolves as contact tracing could put this game at risk.
• Joe Mixon was a late add to the injury report after practice this week with a chest injury. This one would certainly shake up the slate as well and put Gio Bernard firmly in play against the Jets. If Mixon plays, he is in a great spot against a Jets defense that have been torched by Melvin Gordon and Raheem Mostert this year.

KEY CASH CORE

Alvin Kamara- $8,800

This one is fairly obvious and expect this to be the highest rostered player in FanDuel cash this week. With no Michael Thomas and Jared Cook, expect Alvin Kamara to keep his receiving upside as he has caught 22 passes over the last two games. This is a game in which Kamara is facing a Lions defense that is allowing 153 yards rushing and 42 yards receiving to opposing running backs. This is a week where without Jared Cook and Michael Thomas, the Saints are still supposed to score close to 30 points this week. Expect a big game out of Kamara, and Latavius Murray could be a sneaky GPP play this week.

Dak Prescott- $8,200

There are a number of good quarterback options on this slate, so locking into just one is a bit of a challenge, but Dak is the guy this week in cash games. At just $8,200, you are getting him at a bit of a discount as he is the sixth most expensive quarterback this week. Dak has been outstanding this year as he is averaging 396 passing yards per game and while he only has 5 passing touchdowns, he does have 4 rushing touchdowns providing a nice upside against Cleveland this week. Cleveland's secondary is seemingly perpetually injured as Greedy Williams has been ruled out and Denzel Ward is questionable as he did not practice this week. Without those two, this should be a big opportunity for Dak and company to put up massive numbers if Cleveland can keep this game close.

Mike Davis- $6,300

Mike Davis as a receiving back has far surpassed anyone's expectations in his time with Christian McCaffrey sidelined. While he has just 47 rushing yards on the season, Davis has 16 receptions in the last two games with the Panthers. The rushing stats should increase as Davis has faced two of the most difficult run defenses in the NFL in consecutive weeks in Tampa Bay and the Los Angeles Chargers. While the Arizona matchup is nothing special, even an average matchup to get a running back who is almost guaranteed to have 20 touches. If the receiving upside can continue, it is essentially starting with a free 4 points to start the day for Davis.

Other Thoughts

Tight End Position

In general this week, there are a number of good plays at seemingly all of the positions, and the tight end position is no different. While players such as Darren Waller and Travis Kelce are intriguing at the top, Mike Gesicki and T.J. Hockenson lead the way as value plays this week. For Hockenson, it is all about the matchup which is a great one this week going up against a Saints defense that has struggled mightily against the position allowing four touchdowns so far this year and an average of 10 receptions for 96 yards in their three games this year. For Gesicki, it is all about the perceived matchup especially with all of the safety issues that the Seahawks are dealing with as Jamal Adams will miss this game as well. Teams have seemingly thrown against the Seahawks at will this year, but they have not faced a strong receiving threat at the tight end position. Gesicki has shown upside in his 8 reception for 130 yard performance against Buffalo, but has been largely quiet in the other two games this season. He makes for a much better GPP play, while Hockenson should be the safer play with high upside.

LINEUPS

SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 144.2)

• QB Dak Prescott, DAL, $8,200
• RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,800
• RB Mike Davis, CAR, $6,300
• WR- Amari Cooper, DAL, $7,100
• WR Robert Woods, LAR, $6,700
• WR DK Metcalf, SEA, $6,900
• TE TJ Hockenson, DET, $5,400
• Flex RB- Kenyan Drake, ARI, $7,000
• TD Cincinnati Bengals, $3,400

SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Dallas Cleveland Game Stack (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 144.8)

• QB Dak Prescott, DAL, $8,200
• RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,800
• RB Mike Davis, CAR, $6,300
• WR- Amari Cooper, DAL, $7,100
• WR Odell Beckham, $6,600
• WR Tyler Lockett, $7,500
• TE TJ Hockenson, DET, $5,400
• Flex RB- David Montgomery, CHI, $5,800
• TD Seattle Seahawks, $4,000

SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – Houston Minnesota Game Stack(DD PROJECTED POINTS = 142.3)

• QB Deshaun Watson, Hou, $7,800
• RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,800
• RB Mike Davis, CAR, $6,300
• WR- Amari Cooper, DAL, $7,100
• WR Adam Thielen, Min, $7,100
• WR Will Fuller, Hou $6,100
• TE TJ Hockenson, DET, $5,400
• Flex RB- Dalvin Cook, Min, $8,700
• TD Cincinnati Bengals, $3,400

NEW FEATURE: PLAYER POOL

Projected points are static as of Saturday morning and will not be updated throughout the weekend. Green means great cash game play, yellow means should be in consideration in cash game lineups.