BOTTOM 5 PASSING MATCHUPS WEEK 15
To view all of our Week 15 Matchup content, please see the links below:
Top 5 Passing Matchups Week 15
Bottom 5 Passing Matchups Week 15
Top 5 Rushing Matchups Week 15
Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups Week 15
Rushing Matchup Chart Week 15
Passing Matchup Chart Week 15
NY Jets at LA Rams
The Jets offense looks broken in every regard, and certainly incapable of any usable air production. Once-franchise quarterback Sam Darnold hasn’t thrown more than 30 passes or cleared 200 yards since Week 4 as coach Adam Gase runs out the string on a disastrous season. Darnold may be far from a finished product - he’ll likely get a fresh start next year at just 24 years old - but has clearly hit a wall in his 2020 development. There’s almost no downfield game at play here, with Breshad Perriman and Jamison Crowder (102 combined yards over the past two weeks) both limited players further handcuffed by the offense. These Jets have a limited offense in even the best matchup, but they are going to be up against it this week facing one of the best in football.
The star-studded Rams continue to field 2020’s premier pass defense. Packed with dynamic talent both up front and in the secondary, this is a group capable of shutting down virtually anyone when healthy and focused. Only one opposing passer - Josh Allen back in Week 3 - has managed to clear 270 yards in this matchup, with the other 12 averaging a paltry 206. As long as Defensive POY candidate Aaron Donald is terrorizing pockets, life will be difficult for opposing passers. Donald (a league-leading 12.5 sacks) presides over a pass rush that’s inconsistent, but fully capable of dominating from start to finish. On the back end sits some of Donald’s competition for DPOY in cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who’s coasting through the best of his five illustrious seasons. Ramsey is moving all over the formation as needed, and he’s been a primary force in stifling the likes of DK Metcalf (28 yards on 4 targets), Mike Evans (49 on 9), and DeAndre Hopkins (52 on 13). This is a battled-tested unit, too: in those recent dates with Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, and Kyler Murray, they gave up just 5.1 yards per attempt and picked off five passes. That’s quite the recent trend, and it’s hard to project Darnold and the dysfunctional Jets to challenge it. Any Jets production at all should be counted as a win in this suffocating matchup.
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh
The Bengals don’t appear capable of piecing together a passing game of note here in 2020. Quarterbacks Brandon Allen and Ryan Finley are woefully overmatched in relief of Joe Burrow; neither boasts the ability to produce on any level of the field. Apart from a single 72-yard catch-and-run by Tyler Boyd, the pair has produced a pitiful 5.0 yards per attempt and just 3 touchdowns. Needless to say, it keeps handcuffs on the upsides of Boyd, Tee Higgins, and A.J. Green, none of whom has reached 75 yards in a game since Burrow’s injury. Green managed to post 62 and find the end zone last Sunday, which looks like the best-case scenario under these circumstances.
The Steelers pass defense probably isn’t quite as good as it looks on paper. The numbers are truly fantastic: only the dominant Rams are allowing fewer adjusted net yards per attempt, which factors in sacks, interceptions, and touchdowns. Opponents are putting up just 226 yards a game through the air, and no team has picked off more passes. But it has to be noted that they’ve feasted on a laughably soft stretch of quarterbacking, from Jeff Driskel to Garrett Gilbert to Jake Luton to Trace McSorley. Still, the schedule is the schedule, and the trend will continue Sunday with some mixture of Brandon Allen and Ryan Finley helming the Bengals. It’s hard to see how the beastly Steelers front, led by Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt, will be held off its marks by the weak Cincinnati line. With Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner T.J. Watt (12.0 sacks and a league-high 37 quarterback hits) leading the league’s most lethal pass rush from behind them, Allen’s outlook could hardly be worse. There are beatable links in the Pittsburgh secondary - Tee Higgins did turn 9 targets into 115 yards and a touchdown against it just a month ago. But circumstances have tilted even further toward Pittsburgh since then, and this matchup looks all but hopeless. Perhaps Higgins or A.J. Green can shake loose for a long ball or a short touchdown, but there’s a near-zero floor in play here. This unit is more than capable of burying Allen under a barrage of pressure and takeaways.
Buffalo at Denver
The Bills have undergone quite the transition here in 2020, bouncing from one of football’s most run-heavy teams to one of its most pass-happy. It’s come on the heels of two massive developments: the team’s acquisition of superstar wideout Stefon Diggs, and the astounding Year 3 development of Josh Allen. Allen’s proficiency both in and out of the pocket - particularly when looking for Diggs, who’s posted 90+ yards in five of his last six games - has been an MVP-level storyline throughout a magical season. Of course, their fantasy success hinges on big-play opportunities, and they’re facing a relatively tough matchup for that. Diggs will feel the WR1 clampdown of Broncos coach Vic Fangio’s defensive attention, and production will come at a premium. Allen will need to get creative to put up another massive stat line.
The Broncos haven’t had much go right in a rebuilding 2020, but they can hang their hats on playing exceptionally well against the pass. That was the obvious outcome of hiring Fangio as head coach in the first place. Only 2 of their 13 opponents (Patrick Mahomes II and Ben Roethlisberger) have cleared 300 yards through the air - and both needed 40+ attempts to get there. This unit has been stingy on a per-snap basis, thanks in large part to a secondary that has rotated plenty but still bracketed big-play receivers nicely. Elite talents like Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, and Tyreek Hill have been held largely in check - that cohort combined for just 268 yards over their 6 games. Fangio has long been lauded for his units’ tendencies to shut down elite No. 1 receivers, and it’s certainly carried over to Denver. The loss of cornerback A.J. Bouye doesn’t look to make a huge difference here; it’s mostly the scheme and the aggressiveness that make this such a tough unit to produce against.
Las Vegas vs LA Chargers
The Raiders, with Jon Gruden at the helm and Derek Carr under center, remain a dink-and-dunk offense at heart. Carr brings a lot to the table for Las Vegas, but the team succeeds most when he’s dodging the pass rush by keeping the ball in close and under control. Tight end Darren Waller continues to pace this attack with a 26% target share, while deep-ball strikes to Henry Ruggs and Nelson Agholor are treated like novelty items. Unless they’re pushed into a full-on shootout, their upside looks tightly capped in a tough divisional matchup.
The Chargers continue to field one of the moment’s stingiest pass units. They opened the year in rocky fashion, but dating back to Week 6, only seven teams have allowed fewer yards per dropback. Along the way, they’ve stifled the likes of Josh Allen (157 yards), Matt Ryan (224), and even Derek Carr (165) in this very matchup six weeks ago. Most wideouts have simply been unable to find any meaningful room against one of football’s premier cornerback trios. Casey Hayward has played a notch below his typically dominant level, but remains a shutdown guy, while Michael Davis has excelled across the field. Chris Harris is still solid in the slot, which will be crucial as the Raiders attack the short, quick routes. The Chargers certainly boast the coverage talent to keep Darren Waller and the slot receivers under wraps. And given their success against downfield receivers to boot, this is a pessimistic matchup to target overall.
Seattle at Washington
The Seahawks pass game has cooled, to say the least, from its sizzling start to the 2020 season. After averaging 8.6 yards per attempt and 318 a game over the first 8 weeks, Russell Wilson has dipped to 6.9 and 229 over the past five. It hasn’t just been a volume thing, either - Wilson has simply been less effective, throwing downfield less crisply and turning the ball over more than ever. Some of the blame falls on the Seattle front line, which is built more for the run game than for pass protection and has struggled mightily of late. It’s been several weeks since this attack has been able to support both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett as fantasy starters, and Metcalf has laid claim to the No. 1 role by a healthy margin. He’s a weekly threat to erupt in any matchup, while Lockett is a true wild card now.
The Football Team are crawling back into 2020 relevance with one surprising win after another - and largely because of a pass defense that’s grown stout overnight. This is suddenly a top-three unit through 13 games, giving up just 6.7 yards per attempt and 19 touchdowns through the air. Much of the credit goes to the young, dynamic pass rush, which is meeting its lofty expectations right on schedule. Edge men Chase Young and Montez Sweat and interior rusher Jonathan Allen make for a formidable presence at the pocket, while veteran Ryan Kerrigan continues to shine in a sub-package role. Together, they make life easier for cornerbacks Ronald Darby and Kendall Fuller, both of whom have bounced back into stellar 2020 campaigns. They’ve been the driving forces in keeping the Steelers’ and Cowboys’ dynamic wideouts under wraps, and they’re in a position to overachieve again on Sunday. If the pass rush can work its way through Seattle’s shaky pass-blocking line, they’ll be able to dictate much of Russell Wilson’s game and keep it under control.
