Before diving into the nitty-gritty of this week's bets, it is important to establish a few key concepts that will come up repeatedly throughout the season. First and foremost, all bets will be recommended with an accompanying unit amount, typically somewhere between 0.5 and 2.0 units. One unit should equate to approximately one-percent of your allotted bankroll that you use for wagering across various sports. Arguably the most important aspect of being a winning sports bettor is proper bankroll management. By wagering in accordance with the recommended unit amounts-- totaling to a small percentage of your bankroll each week- this will ensure that you are never risking more than you can afford to lose. Additionally, the sports betting market is just that, a market. Markets typically tend towards efficiency, especially when the market price- or betting line in this case- is established by many players risking large sums of money to establish the price. Historically, the most accurate estimate of what the correct price, or most accurate pregame projection of a game, is determined by the closing line of the game. The betting limits for games increase as more information, in the form of wagers, becomes available to bookmakers later in the week. Subsequently, the betting line movements leading up to kickoff ultimately move the betting line into place, settling at the most efficient public indicator of what the price should be at kickoff. Using the closing line, calculating closing line value becomes a fantastic measurement of a sound process in sports betting. Beating the closing line, or betting on a game at a better number than the game closes at, is extremely difficult, but also typically leads to sustainable long-term success.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter @StillZam, as I will tweet updates whenever an edit is made to this article or any other piece that I write. As lines move leading up to kickoff this weekend, if value reveals itself elsewhere in the league, it will be analyzed below
Results
- Green Bay Packers ML (-188), LOSS -1.88 units
- Kansas City Chiefs/Buffalo Bills OVER 54 (-110), WIN +0.75 units
Week profit/loss: -1.13 units
Year-to-date profit/loss: -7.55 units
SUPER BOWL 55: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-122), risking 1.83 units to win 1.50 units at FanDuel Sportsbook
After one of the most tumultuous seasons in the history of the NFL, a day many doubted we would see is finally here. On Sunday evening, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be the first team in NFL history to host the Super Bowl in their home stadium when the Kansas City Chiefs come to town with nothing less than the Lombardi Trophy on the line. Patrick Mahomes II will lead the Chiefs into action, searching for his second consecutive Super Bowl title. No team has won back-to-back Super Bowls since the New England Patriots did so in 2004 and 2005 with none other than Tom Brady at the helm. In this clash between arguably the most-talented quarterback of all-time and the most-decorated quarterback, Mahomes and the Chiefs are expected to prevail by a modest margin. According to my projections, the 3.0-point spread is not large enough, which leads us to a 1.83-unit wager on the Chiefs to cover the spread, emerge victorious, and net us 1.5 units of profit. Now, let's dissect each critical dynamic that will come into play in deciding who reigns supreme over the NFL for the next 12 months.
COACHING
Advantage: Significant edge to the Kansas City Chiefs
First, the coaching edge in Super Bowl 55 goes to the Kansas City Chiefs by a significant margin. Two weeks ago, I made a note of how analytically-inclined each remaining coaching staff was entering the Conference Championship Round of the playoffs. The analysis of each team's fourth-down decision-making revealed that Bruce Arians and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' staff lagged far behind the other three remaining staffs. Arians and the Bucs regularly opt to "take the points" and kick field goals in situations when the team would be much better off going for it on fourth down with a chance to put seven points on the board, rather than just three. While this weakness did not come into play in the Buccaneers' Conference Championship game against the Packers, as Matt LaFleur and the Green Bay Packers were uncharacteristically and appallingly conservative, the Super Bowl is always where the metaphoric boys are separated from the men in the highest-leverage situations, which could spell trouble for the NFC representatives. Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs are one of the most aggressive teams in the NFL on fourth downs, which has paid massive dividends with Patrick Mahomes II under center. Reid has consistently referenced Mahomes' uncanny playmaking ability at the quarterback position when justifying his riskiest fourth-down decisions, and it is tough to argue against him. When presented with two options; kick the ball away to the other team with either three or zero points on the scoreboard or put the ball in Mahomes' hands to let him do what he does best and make a play with a chance to find the endzone, the former is rarely the correct choice.
Aside from numbers-driven fourth-down decision-making analysis, the Chiefs also have an edge schematically this weekend. The masterful offensive scheme developed by Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy in Kansas City is one of the best in the history of the NFL. There are no limits to what this pair will manufacture to confuse defenses and get their top-end playmakers the ball in space. Not even quarterback motion is off the table when Reid and Bieniemy sit down to draw up new plays to use in critical goal-to-go situations. With two weeks to prepare for the highest-stakes game of the season, one should expect Big Red to pull out all of the stops to steal some yardage or points.
All of this praise of Kansas City's offensive scheme does not mean that Tampa Bay's offensive scheme is subpar by any means; they field one of the league's most prolific scoring attacks. However, when push comes to shove in this battle of strength against strength, the offensive genius of Bruce Arians and Byron Leftwich does not measure up to that of Reid and Bieniemy. The downfalls in Tampa Bay's offensive scheme and coaching may be nit-picky, but if there was ever a time to be hyper-critical, this is it. The Buccaneers' questionable deployment of its running backs may be the biggest red flag for this attack from a broad decision-making perspective. At this stage of his career, Leonard Fournette is neither an above-average pass-catcher nor a particularly elusive player with the ball in his hands. Typically, those are the two most prominent traits of running backs that are heavily featured in the passing game. However, despite his lackluster metrics and tape, Fournette averages nearly six targets-per-game in the playoffs. The questions and concerns surrounding Fournette's increased recent usage are perfectly encapsulated in this one statistic:
- All Leonard Fournette carries and targets in the playoffs: 313 yards on 65 plays for 4.82 yards-per-play
- All Tom Brady pass attempts not directed at Leonard Fournette: 758 yards on 92 attempts for 8.24 yards-per-play
These numbers raise one very simple question: Why are the Bucs putting the ball in Fournette's hands 70-percent as often as they have Brady drop back to throw the ball to anyone else? Nobody knows, but if this coaching staff does not stop wasting downs at an alarming rate by putting the ball in the hands of an unimpressive running back, the handful of scoring opportunities forfeited in the process may prove the difference on Sunday night.
From top to bottom, the Chiefs' coaching staff is a tier above that of the Buccaneers. Whether it comes to high-leverage decision-making tendencies or their allocation of touches within the offense, Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy run laps around Bruce Arians and Byron Leftwich.
Lastly, Andy Reid is historically one of the NFL's best coaches after a bye week. Dating back to his days as the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, Reid-coached teams are 20-3 following a bye week. This season has been no different; in their two games following a bye, they averaged 449 yards of total offense, nearly 35 yards higher than their league-leading season average, in addition to going 2-0.
OFFENSIVE PLAYMAKING TALENT
Advantage: Moderate edge to the Kansas City Chiefs
Once again, in another clash of strengths, the Kansas City Chiefs edge out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in terms of their offensive playmaking talent. Both teams field exceptionally-talented offensive units, but the game-breaking skillset of Patrick Mahomes II should push the Chiefs' scoring attack over the top this weekend to give them the edge in this phase of the game.
On Tampa Bay's offense, the midseason acquisition of Antonio Brown bolstered an already impressive receiving corps. With Brown in the mix, the Buccaneers sport one of, if not the, most well-rounded group(s) of pass-catchers in the NFL. Atop the depth chart, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Antonio Brown would each likely be a number-one receiver on almost any other roster in the league. Here, all three are competing for targets, which limits each player's respective ceiling of production. Together, however, they comprise one of the most productive receiving trios the league has seen in years. Then, at tight end, following a slow start to his return to his comeback season, Rob Gronkowski has proven, in short bursts, to remain one of the most physically dominant players in the NFL. The remarkable chemistry level between Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski has not waned at all since Gronkowski's initial retirement after the 2018 season. One important thing to keep an eye on here is Antonio Brown's status. He missed the team's last game in Green Bay. Although he is expected to suit up for the Super Bowl, he has missed practice already this week leading up to the game. Should he be limited or miss out on the game entirely, this would serve as a massive detriment to Tampa Bay's offense, tilting the balances even further in Kansas City's favor.
On the other side of the football, Kansas City's concentrated passing attack is one of the most consistent and unstoppable in the league. Although defenses can try to zero-in on Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill as the primary aerial threats in Kansas City's offense, they often remain helpless when attempting to execute any gameplan that would theoretically contain the duo. Hill's mind-numbing speed takes the top off the defense and eats up yardage in large bunches. In the Week 12 meeting between these two teams, Hill posted one of the best single-game receiving performances of all-time, which featured over 200 receiving yards in the first quarter alone. At tight end, Travis Kelce is breaking records for receiving production at the position without seemingly breaking a sweat. Kelce has hauled in at least 7 passes in 10 straight games, found the end zone in 6 consecutive games, and posted at least 98 receiving yards in 8 out of his last 10 outings. This past offseason, during a guest appearance on a podcast, Kelce noted that he and Patrick Mahomes II have developed such remarkable chemistry together that he has the freedom to go off-script as a route-runner based on what the defense presents him, and Mahomes is almost always on the same page. This unspoken connection presents a unique challenge for defenses, as the improvised exploitation of almost any coverage scheme imaginable makes Kelce an especially unstoppable receiving threat regardless of what the defensive gameplan is. Lastly, for the Kansas City Chiefs, Mecole Hardman serves as the team's x-factor on the offensive side of the football. The second-year player out of Georgia is another lightning-quick speedster on the outside for Mahomes to torture opposing defenses with. Last year, in his rookie season, Hardman made the Pro Bowl as a returner. His big-play capabilities were on full display two weeks ago in the Conference Championship when he broke off a 50-yard carry on a jet sweep early in the second quarter to set up a Darrel Williams touchdown run against the Buffalo Bills. Overall, while the Chiefs playmaking unit is not as deep as the Buccaneers', Kansas City's top-notch producers' unique and specialized skill sets help to make up for the depth disparity betwixt the two offenses. Then, after the once-in-a-generation capabilities of Patrick Mahomes II are added into the mix, Kansas City's edge in offensive playmaking talent becomes readily apparent. After all, there is a reason the Chiefs averaged over 30 yards-per-game and 0.25 yards-per-play more than the Buccaneers during the regular season. While 0.25 yards-per-play may seem like a small difference on the surface, that disparity is 20-percent larger than the difference between the Baltimore Ravens' offense and the Detroit Lions' offense this year, for reference.
OVERALL DEFENSE, ADJUSTED FOR SUPER BOWL MATCHUP
Advantage: Marginal edge to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In a vacuum, Tampa Bay's defense is much stronger than Kansas City's defense is overall this season. However, in the context of the specific matchup ahead of them, this battle becomes a near-toss-up. The edge in defensive talent and the resume of strong performances built throughout the season gives the Buccaneers a marginal advantage in this phase of the game, but it is unlikely to have much impact on the outcome of the game on the whole.
Last year, Super Bowl 54 featured a San Francisco 49ers' defense that would have ranked number one in the NFL this year, according to DVOA allowed. However, when push came to shove on the biggest stage, San Francisco's defense could not stop Kansas City's prolific scoring attack, as the Chiefs posted a 21-point fourth-quarter en-route to a 31-20 Super Bowl victory.
Tampa Bay's defensive success is rooted in a complex defensive scheme featuring exotic blitzes that confuse opposing quarterbacks and apply pressure on approximately 27.9-percent of dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the NFL. Unfortunately, Patrick Mahomes II thrives against the blitz, which will likely neutralize the Buccaneers' defensive strength. This season, Mahomes posted the best QBR against the blitz of any quarterback across the last 10 years. The Buccaneers' top-five defense, according to DVOA allowed, will certainly put up a fight this weekend. Unfortunately, this well-rounded unit proved to be no match for Mahomes and the Chiefs' attack in Week 12, when Kansas City recorded 543 yards of total offense, their highest total of the season.
Despite all of these factors working against the Buccaneers' defense this weekend, they hold a marginal advantage in this feature of the game due to the Chiefs' mediocrity on the defensive side of the football. Overall, Kansas City ranks 22nd in the NFL in DVOA allowed this year. After adjusting for compounding determinants defensive metrics like time, score, and other situational/contextual factors that damage the Chiefs' big-picture defensive numbers, they grade as a near-league-average defense. Still, even a league-average unit is unlikely to pose much of a problem for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers' balanced passing attack. The upside for Kansas City's defense is the unit's malleability and adaptability under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's guidance. The Chiefs' defense is one of the most versatile units in the league in terms of the variety of coverage schemes it deploys, how often it blitzes, and its situational tendencies. This critical feature of Kansas City's defensive gameplan may serve to complicate the preparation process for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers' offense, as the lack of predictability may increase the variance of a winner-take-all season finale. When presented with a substantial talent disadvantage, like the Chiefs' defense will be in the Super Bowl, extreme play-calling creativity-- or a high-variance approach-- is a great way to maximize the opportunity for a strong showing-- or an overperformance. Conversely, there would be very little opportunity for a strong showing defensively against a top-end scoring attack like that of Tampa Bay in the absence of talent and play-calling creativity.
In total, the Bucs' field the vastly superior defense in Super Bowl 55, based on pure talent alone. However, a brutal matchup against their kryptonite, arguably the best quarterback of all-time against the blitz, will minimize the impact of this top-five unit, much like he did in Week 12 when Mahomes led the Chiefs to 27 points and a season-high in total offensive yardage. On the opposite side of the football, Kansas City's defense is league-average at best. However, the aggression and unpredictability of their game-planning and playcalling may throw a wrench into things for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, helping to potentially level the playing field this weekend.
PIECING IT ALL TOGETHER
When everything is said and done on Sunday night in Raymond James Stadium, Patrick Mahomes II and the Kansas City Chiefs are likely to hoist the Lombardi Trophy once again. Andy Reid's offense has yet to meet its match with Patrick Mahomes II leading the huddle, and there is no reason to expect them to slow down now, as the stars are aligning for another strong showing. First, Mahomes' strengths perfectly exploit Tampa Bay's defensive weaknesses and neutralize their defensive strengths. On the other side of the football, the Buccaneers should score their fair share of points on Kansas City's average-to-below-average defense. However, the upside for a strong showing from Kansas City's defense is the difference-maker in this matchup. The chaotic approach that defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has embraced, thanks to playmakers like Tyrann Mathieu at his disposal to wreak havoc in a variety of different ways, will provide a unique puzzle for Tom Brady and the Buccaneer's offense to solve. Should Bruce Arians' and Byron Leftwich's offense slip up and fail to make the most of each of their scoring opportunities, they may fall behind the eight-ball early on and find themselves playing a dangerous game of catch-up against one of the most explosive offenses we have ever seen. Lastly, it has been proven time and time again that teams will not beat Patrick Mahomes II and the Chiefs with field goals. If Bruce Arians is his typical conservative self when the lights are shining the brightest on Sunday, choosing to go the safe route with field goals or punts after crossing over the 50-yard-line could reasonably be what stops the Buccaneers from having a shot at winning their first Super Bowl since 2003.
This matchup projects as close to a 4.9-point game in favor of the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs. As a result, a 1.83-unit wager on the Chiefs to cover the three-point spread and net 1.5 units of profit in a victory is the best wager against the spread for Super Bowl Sunday.
