Before diving into the nitty-gritty of this week's bets, it is important to establish a few key concepts that will come up repeatedly throughout the season. First and foremost, all bets will be recommended with an accompanying unit amount, typically somewhere between 0.5 and 2.0 units. One unit should equate to approximately one-percent of your allotted bankroll that you use for wagering across various sports. Arguably the most important aspect of being a winning sports bettor is proper bankroll management. By wagering in accordance with the recommended unit amounts-- totaling to a small percentage of your bankroll each week- this will ensure that you are never risking more than you can afford to lose. Additionally, the sports betting market is just that, a market. Markets typically tend towards efficiency, especially when the market price- or betting line in this case- is established by many players risking large sums of money to establish the price. Historically, the most accurate estimate of what the correct price, or most accurate pregame projection of a game, is determined by the closing line of the game. The betting limits for games increase as more information, in the form of wagers, becomes available to bookmakers later in the week. Subsequently, the betting line movements leading up to kickoff ultimately move the betting line into place, settling at the most efficient public indicator of what the price should be at kickoff. Using the closing line, calculating closing line value becomes a fantastic measurement of a sound process in sports betting. Beating the closing line, or betting on a game at a better number than the game closes at, is extremely difficult, but also typically leads to sustainable long-term success.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter @StillZam, as I will tweet updates whenever an edit is made to this article or any other piece that I write. As lines move leading up to kickoff this weekend, if value reveals itself elsewhere in the league, it will be analyzed below
Results
- Buffalo Bills -6.5, LOSS -1.62 units
- Baltimore Ravens -3, WIN +1.0 unit
Week profit/loss: -0.62 units
Year-to-date profit/loss: -8.42 units
What is EPA/Play?
Much of this week's analysis will refer to a metric, EPA/play, that has not been mentioned or addressed this season. EPA/play is short for Expected Points Added per Play. Expected Points Added is a measurement of how much more likely a team is to score after a play than they were before it. Here is an example, breaking down what EPA/play is at its core:
Note: the Expected Points values in the following scenario are random and used only for the sake of this example. They are not the true Expected Points values at each spot on the field.
- Team X has the ball at midfield, and (through other formulas and projections) they project to score an average of 3.5 points on this drive.
- Team X runs the ball on 1st-and-10 for 15 yards and a first down to the opponent's 35-yard-line. Now, updated projections project that the team will score an average of 4.0 points on this drive. This play registered 0.5 EPA.
- On the next play, Team X throws the ball for 20 yards on 1st-and-10 for another first down at the opponent's 15-yard-line. Now, updated projections project that the team will score an average of 5.0 points on this drive. This play registered 1.0 EPA.
- Next, Team X runs the ball on 1st and 10 for a loss of 2 yards; now it is 2nd-and-12 at the opponent's 17-yard-line, and the updated projections project that the team will score an average of 4.7 points on this drive. This play registered -0.3 EPA.
- In short, a play with positive EPA is a successful play, as the expected scoring output for the drive has increased. On the opposite end of the spectrum, a play with negative EPA is an unsuccessful play, as the expected scoring output for their drive has decreased.
- EPA/play is calculated for rushes and dropbacks, respectively, by taking the sum of the total EPA for all plays of that specified play type and dividing that by the total number of plays of the specified play type.
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Pick: Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-114) risk 1.14 units to win 1.0 unit at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Unsurprisingly, in the Divisional Round of the 2020 playoffs, we are backing the Buffalo Bills once again. Here, as 2.5-point home favorites, we are risking 1.14 units on the Bills to cover the spread in a victory over the Baltimore Ravens and net 1.0-unit of profit.
Although they did not cover the spread last weekend against the Indianapolis Colts, the Bills turned in an all-around impressive performance. Josh Allen was phenomenal through the air, where he tallied over 300 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions against one of the league's strongest defensive units. While conventional wisdom leads one to believe that a strong rushing attack is essential to a Super Bowl contender, the passing game is far more important. Buffalo turned in a dominant regular-season campaign this year, and their leading rusher averaged only 42.9 rushing-yards-per-game. This incredible passing attack that offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has constructed is likely to be emulated around the league for years to come. Buffalo's focus on moving the ball through the air did not change at all once the season transitioned into the win-or-go-home format. Last weekend, against the number-seven defense in the NFL, according to DVOA allowed, the Bills threw the ball 35 times while handing it to their running backs only 10 times. One of the largest critiques of a pass-heavy attack is that the opposing defense will not respect the rushing game, drop more defenders into coverage, and subsequently limit any high-volume passing offense's efficiency. Buffalo, however, has avoided these issues entirely this season. Despite only handing it off to running backs 10 times in the Wild Card round, the team still registered almost 9.3 yards-per-attempt through the air. Additionally, as always, the threat of Josh Allen scrambling or carrying the ball on a designed run play is game-changing. Last week, Allen carried the ball 11 times for 54 yards and 1 touchdown against the Colts. In high-leverage situations, expect Daboll and the Bills' coaching staff to put the ball in the hands of their franchise quarterback and ask him to do what he does best: make a play.
On the opposite sideline, the visiting Baltimore Ravens head up to Buffalo seeking their first appearance in the AFC Championship game since they won the Super Bowl in 2012. As mentioned last week, when we backed them to cover the spread against the Tennessee Titans, the Ravens are rounding into form at the right time. Although they only registered 20 points on the afternoon, the Ravens registered over 400 yards of total offense against the Titans in the Wild Card round. Much like Buffalo's offense, Baltimore's attack is built around a game-changing quarterback while also maximizing their freak athletes' playmaking abilities at the skill positions. Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews are dominating through the air, while rookie running back J.K. Dobbins adds another element to Baltimore's top-shelf rushing attack that neither Mark Ingram nor Gus Edwards could provide. Overall, any analyst would be hard-pressed to identify a weak link in the Ravens' offense right now. Also, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens got the proverbial monkey off of their back last week with the first playoff victory of the Lamar Jackson-era. Much like their Wild Card matchup against the Tennessee Titans, the Ravens' Divisional Round clash with the Buffalo Bills is likely to be decided on the football's defensive side of the football.
Last week, we backed the Ravens due to their defensive edge over the Titans. This weekend, this same reason that we are fading the Ravens and backing the Bills. Late in the year, I harped on the lack of home-field-advantage in the NFL this year, which was largely driven by the lack of fans in the stands. In Buffalo, however, they are allowing a limited number of socially-distanced fans into the stadium, which creates a non-zero home-field-advantage in favor of the Bills, especially on defense. Next, the recent performance of each respective defense is perfectly encapsulated in their weighted DVOA allowed. Weighted DVOA is a metric that weights recent performances much more heavily than early-season performances. The Bills rank 8th in the NFL in weighted DVOA allowed this year, and their analytically-driven approach to the game is likely a driving force behind their success here. As noted last week, the Bills' strategic approach to the game, encouraging their opponents to run the ball in higher volume, is a sharp tactic. Last week, despite playing from behind since the first quarter, the Colts still ran the ball almost 30 times. The Colts tallied only 0.02 EPA/play on the ground, but they registered 0.32 EPA/play through the air. In hindsight, the Bills encouraging a run-heavy gameplan from the Colts was a genius move that paid massive dividends, and they are likely to do the same this weekend against the Ravens. Although Baltimore's rushing attack is the most efficient in the league at 0.094 EPA/play on the year, their ground game is still almost 30-percent less efficient than their passing attack.
Conversely, the Baltimore Ravens' defense ranks 15th in the league in weighted DVOA allowed. Although they are a deep and talented unit, they stand very little chance of containing Buffalo's passing attack, which has posted a stunning 0.299 EPA/play this season, the second-highest mark in the NFL. Expect another stellar performance from the Bills' offense, which has not been held under 27 points since Week 8, here in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
In sum, the Bills' substantial edge on the defensive side of the football, combined with the second-ranked passing attack in the NFL leads us to a wager on the AFC East champions to cover the 2.5-point spread at FanDuel Sportsbook. If all goes according to plan, there will not be a usable folding table within a 50-mile radius of Bills Stadium on Saturday night, and we will net 1.0-unit of profit in a victory.
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Pick: Cleveland Browns +10 (-118), risk 1.18-units to win 1.0-unit at FanDuel Sportsbook.
After a shocking upset of their AFC North rivals in the Wild Card round, the Cleveland Browns will head down to Missouri to take on the number-one seed in the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs. Here, we will back the Cleveland Browns as stunning 10-point underdogs with a 1.18-unit wager on the team to cover the spread and net 1.0-unit of profit in a victory.
When they were at full-strength, the Cleveland Browns were one of the hottest teams in the NFL down the stretch. Unfortunately, they were not at full-strength very often, as the team had to deal with a COVID-19 outbreak that impacted the team from Week 16 against the New York Jets through their Wild Card matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers last weekend. The resilience shown by the team last weekend, playing without one of their best offensive lineman, two starting cornerbacks, and their head coach, was remarkable. In his post-game interview, Baker Mayfield noted that he met one offensive lineman, who was forced into action due to an in-game injury, in the locker room right before the game. While there was no shortage of good luck for the Browns throughout their game in the Wild Card round, including a first-play defensive touchdown thanks to a bad snap by the Steelers, when you're as shorthanded as they were last week, it might be more important to be lucky than good. This week, the Browns should have their full roster back together and their brilliant head coach, Kevin Stefanski, back on the sideline. With Stefanski at the helm, Cleveland finished the season eighth in weighted DVOA on offense thanks, in large part, to Baker Mayfield's development at quarterback. Mayfield is no longer forcing the ill-advised passes that he typically did earlier in his career, and the results have been incredible. The third-year quarterback from Oklahoma posted a 26-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season, by far the best mark of his young career. With this quarterback-play-caller duo reunited this weekend behind an offensive line that is nearing full-health, the Browns should have very little trouble moving the ball down the field and scoring on the Kansas City Chiefs' mediocre defense.
For the Chiefs, the analysis is largely the same as it has been all season: Patrick Mahomes II is unfathomably talented, and he is equipped with arguably the most talented group of pass-catchers in the NFL. This on-field talent paired with Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy on the sidelines calling the plays is lethal. Their scoring attack is one of the best in the NFL, scoring 29.6 points-per-game on the year, which included an eight-week stretch where the team scored at least 30 in 75-percent of their outings. There is very little for me to unveil to you about Kansas City's offense that you do not already know. Tyreek Hill is an unmatched deep-threat on the outside, Travis Kelce is one of the most dominant tight ends of all-time, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le'Veon Bell are both exceptional pass-catching running backs. This is likely the most balanced passing attack in the NFL, and I will not bore you with more details here.
Instead, let's delve into why we are backing the Cleveland Browns on the road against a historically good scoring attack. First, and most importantly, the 10-point spread sits on a key number. 10 is one of the most important numbers in football betting, as games end with a 10-point margin of victory almost as often as any other margin. Getting the Browns +10 is critical-- if the line moves to +9.5 by the time you go to place your wager, I would advise only a half-unit wager here. Second, neither defense is particularly impressive. Both the Browns and the Chiefs sport bottom-10 defenses in the NFL, according to weighted DVOA allowed. Neither offense should face much resistance moving the ball down the field, and the more reliable unit is undoubtedly the Chiefs' offense, but the Browns should be able to put points on the scoreboard in bunches to keep pace. Third, and finally, the coaching advantage slants heavily in favor of the Browns. In terms of clock management, fourth-down decision-making, and other seemingly-small parts of the game, Kevin Stefanski and the Cleveland Browns' coaching staff have proven to be the smarter unit throughout the year. Much of Andy Reid's struggles late in the playoffs (before last year) had been due to his poor decision-making in these finer points of the game, where Stefanski thrives and gives his team a boost.
Overall, this matchup projects as close to an eight-point game in favor of the Kansas City Chiefs. At the current line, we will have a 1.18-unit wager on the Cleveland Browns to cover the 10-point spread and net 1.0-unit of profit in a victory.
