Before diving into the nitty-gritty of this week's bets, it is important to establish a few key concepts that will come up repeatedly throughout the season. First and foremost, all bets will be recommended with an accompanying unit amount, typically somewhere between 0.5 and 2.0 units. One unit should equate to approximately one-percent of your allotted bankroll that you use for wagering across various sports. Arguably the most important aspect of being a winning sports bettor is proper bankroll management. By wagering in accordance with the recommended unit amounts-- totaling to a small percentage of your bankroll each week- this will ensure that you are never risking more than you can afford to lose. Additionally, the sports betting market is just that, a market. Markets typically tend towards efficiency, especially when the market price- or betting line in this case- is established by many players risking large sums of money to establish the price. Historically, the most accurate estimate of what the correct price, or most accurate pregame projection of a game, is determined by the closing line of the game. The betting limits for games increase as more information, in the form of wagers, becomes available to bookmakers later in the week. Subsequently, the betting line movements leading up to kickoff ultimately move the betting line into place, settling at the most efficient public indicator of what the price should be at kickoff. Using the closing line, calculating closing line value becomes a fantastic measurement of a sound process in sports betting. Beating the closing line, or betting on a game at a better number than the game closes at, is extremely difficult, but also typically leads to sustainable long-term success.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter @StillZam, as I will tweet updates whenever an edit is made to this article or any other piece that I write. As lines move leading up to kickoff this weekend, if value reveals itself elsewhere in the league, it will be analyzed below
Results
- Washington Football Team -1.5, WIN +1.5 units
- Green Bay Packers -4.5, WIN +1.0 unit
Week profit/loss: +2.5 units
Year-to-date profit/loss: -7.8 units
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Pick: Buffalo Bills -6.5 (-108) at FanDuel Sportsbook, risk 1.62 units to win 1.5 units
On the opening day of the opening weekend of the 2020 playoffs, two vastly improved teams face-off in the Wild Card round when Indianapolis heads to Buffalo. From 2019 to 2020, the Colts improved their win total by four games, while the Bills improved their win total by three wins. In this matchup between two of the sharpest coaching staffs in the league, the talent on the Bills' side of the football is likely to prevail.
The Buffalo Bills have been one of the most popular teams featured in Beating the Odds this season, and we have largely been successful when backing them. From the top-down, this is one of the smartest franchises in football. Brandon Beane is the front-runner for NFL Executive of the Year, Sean McDermott is a viable candidate for Coach of the Year, and Josh Allen nearly mounted an MVP campaign this season. Somehow, the team remains underrated in the betting market, as they currently sit at just 6.5-point favorites over the Indianapolis Colts. Offensively, there is little that any team in the NFL has been able to do to slow down Buffalo's offense. As mentioned, Josh Allen has been one of the most impressive passers in the league this year. Then, on the outside, Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley both put together All-Pro seasons this year. In short, there is no weakness anywhere in this offense, and the Colts will have their work cut out for them trying to stifle this top-notch scoring attack this weekend. Indianapolis' front-seven is the strongest feature of their defense, as DeForest Buckner and Darius Leonard both garnered first-team All-Pro honors this season. However, neither player is likely to dominate this weekend on a large enough scale to shut down the Bills' offense. In the secondary, they have capable cornerbacks in Xavier Rhodes and Kenny Moore, but even the best cover corners in the NFL would struggle against the likes of Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley. Overall, this piece of the matchup slants heavily in favor of the Buffalo Bills; the NFL's second-leading offense in points-per-game will likely light up the scoreboard at home once again this weekend.
For the Indianapolis Colts, the offseason acquisition of Philip Rivers was the driving force behind their strong 2020 campaign. Head coach Frank Reich is one of the league's sharpest play-callers, and equipping him with a competent and consistent passer under center was a recipe for success. Additionally, their offensive line is one of the strongest and most-consistent units in the NFL, as they have invested massive amounts of draft capital into bolstering this unit in recent years. At the skill positions, Indianapolis is an above-average unit, but not an exceptionally impressive team. At wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton put together a strong second half of the season to remind people that he is still a viable starting receiving option. At running back, the Colts' situational deployment of Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines according to their skillsets is a model for the rest of the league to copy. However, Elsewhere, this unit lacks game-breakers that the Bills will need to specifically zero-in on shutting down to contain the Colts' scoring attack. On the defensive side of the football for the Bills, this is an intriguing matchup. Earlier in the season, in their game against the Kansas City Chiefs, the Bills put few players in the box, loading up on defensive backs to contain the Chiefs' passing attack. This approach encouraged the Chiefs to run the ball at a significantly higher rate than they typically have this season. The theory here was that minimizing Patrick Mahomes II' opportunities to shred Buffalo's defense through the air and forcing the Chiefs down the field in smaller chunks of yardage on the ground would maximize the Bills' chance of winning the game. This matchup against the Colts projects to be a similar matchup for the Bills, where encouraging a run-heavy offensive attack should limit Indianapolis' offense's explosiveness. The Colts stand very little chance of keeping pace with the Bills' high-octane offense without explosive plays. Lastly, Buffalo's defense is well-equipped to limit these explosive plays, thanks to the elite play of their defensive backs this season, namely Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, TreDavious White, and, surprisingly, Josh Norman.
In total, this AFC Wild Card matchup between the AFC East Champs and the second Wild-Card team projects as nearly a nine-point game in favor of the Buffalo Bills. At the current line of -6.5, we will have a 1.62-unit wager on the Bills to cover the spread and net 1.5 units in a victory.
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Pick: Baltimore Ravens -3 (-118) risk 1.18 units to win 1.0 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook
In this rematch of last year's AFC Divisional Round matchup between Baltimore and Tennessee, the Ravens are seeking revenge for an upset loss at the hand of an underdog Titans team. This year, the matchup will take place in Nashville, Tennessee, and the context and narrative surrounding this matchup have changed dramatically in one year's time. This Sunday afternoon, back the Baltimore Ravens to cover the three-point spread in what they hope will be Lamar Jackson's first career playoff victory.
Both of these teams sport impressive offenses this year. On Tennessee's side of the football, their offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, is one of the league's hottest names, and many expect him to secure a head coaching gig this offseason. Smith has done an excellent job this year of balancing the team's strengths both on the ground and through the air. Last weekend, much was made of Derrick Henry's monster 200-yard game, which put him over the 2,000-yard mark for the season. While their star All-Pro running back is the headliner of this offense, Ryan Tannehill has been marvelous this season. You will be hard-pressed to find any all-encompassing metric measuring quarterback play that does not rank Tannehill amongst the top five or ten passers in the league in terms of efficiency. When looking at the weapons he is equipped with on the outside, combined with the high rate of play-action used within this offense, it is easy to see why Tannehill is thriving in Tennessee. Both Corey Davis and A.J. Brown posted spectacular numbers on the outside this year, with Brown topping 1,000 yards across his 14 games and Davis checking in just below that mark at 984 receiving yards in his 14 games. Overall, this is a dangerous offense that posted at least 30 points in 6 of their final 7 games in the 2020 regular season.
Opposite the Titans, Baltimore's offense found a groove late in the season, and they appear to be as dangerous as ever. After a midseason lull that reached its lowest point when Lamar Jackson noted that opposing defenses were calling out Baltimore's plays before the snap, the Ravens posted at least 34 points in 4 of their final 5 games of this season. At quarterback, Lamar Jackson quieted the doubters late in the season as he recorded multiple touchdowns in each of his final five games with a 15-to-3 total touchdown-to-interception ratio. At wide receiver, after an underwhelming beginning to the 2020 season, Marquise Brown found the end zone six times over the team's final six games. He and Lamar Jackson developed the requisite chemistry to connect more frequently on the intermediate throws, instead of limiting his usage in the offense to deep-balls exclusively. With this newfound game-breaking threat running a wider variety of routes, the unpredictability of this offense skyrockets, giving the Ravens' scoring attack a prohibitive advantage over their early-season selves. Then, in the backfield, rookie J.K. Dobbins has assumed a much larger role for the team. Early in the year, Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Mark Ingram were all splitting reps in a true running-back-by-committee. As the season wore on, Ingram was phased out of the attack, and Dobbins' role increased dramatically, as he carried the ball at least 10 times in each of the final 6 games of the season. On the whole, this unit improved each week late in the season, and they're peaking at the right time. In this Wild Card matchup, neither offense has a significant edge over the other. This game will likely be decided on the defensive side of the football.
Defensively, the Baltimore Ravens hold a substantial advantage over the Tennessee Titans this year. Despite being led by a defensive-minded head coach, Mike Vrabel, the Titans' defense ranks 29th in the NFL in total DVOA allowed. The team's general lack of a pass rush has forced the team into countless shootouts whenever they match up against a competent offense. Down the stretch, the Titans allowed 38 points to the Texans, 40 points to the Packers, 25 points to the Lions, and 41 points to the Cleveland Browns. Tennessee's struggles rushing the passer are encapsulated perfectly by their meager sack totals; the team-leader in sacks, Harold Landry, recorded just 5.5 sacks, and only one other player on the roster recorded more than 2.0 sacks this year. This subpar defensive front leaves the team's mediocre secondary exposed against average passing attacks, and this could spell trouble against a dynamic aerial attack featuring Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews in addition to the threat of Lamar Jackson tucking the ball to run.
The Baltimore Ravens, however, hold their own on the defensive side of the football, where they rank ninth in the NFL in total DVOA allowed this year. In total, the Ravens only allowed 30-or-more-points in regulation this season twice, with one of those instances against the Kansas City Chiefs' historic offense. Baltimore's defense is one of the deepest units in the NFL, with average-to-above-average talent at all three levels. Along the defensive front, the acquisition of edge-rusher Yannick Ngakoue has been one of the most impactful transactions of the season throughout the league. In just nine games with the Ravens, Ngakoue ranks fourth on the team in total pressures this season. Then, at linebacker, rookie Patrick Queen has shown promise, as he leads the team with 106 total tackles and 9 tackles-for-loss this year. Although his inexperience shines through at times, expect him to be a key and impactful player this weekend when the Ravens key-in on shutting down Derrick Henry and the Titans' stout rushing attack. Finally, in the secondary, as long as Marlon Humphrey and Jimmy Smith can play, as expected, the back-end of Baltimore's defense is one of the strongest in the NFL. Humphrey made his second consecutive Pro Bowl thanks to his consistent play at cornerback. Opposite him, Jimmy Smith has been equally impressive in coverage this season, although he has missed time and didn't garner the same accolades and recognition as Humphrey did this year.
In total, the Baltimore Ravens' defensive is significantly better than the Tennessee Titans' disappointing defense. This disparity leads to a projected spread of nearly five points, by my projections. At the current line of -3, we will have a 1.18-unit wager on the favored Baltimore Ravens to secure the victory and net 1.0 unit of profit.
