Introduction
Before diving into the nitty-gritty of this week's bets, it is important to establish a few key concepts that will come up repeatedly throughout the season. First and foremost, all bets will be recommended with an accompanying unit amount, typically somewhere between 0.5 and 2.0 units. One unit should equate to approximately one-percent of your allotted bankroll that you use for wagering across various sports. Arguably the most important aspect of being a winning sports bettor is proper bankroll management. By wagering in accordance with the recommended unit amounts-- totaling to a small percentage of your bankroll each week- this will ensure that you are never risking more than you can afford to lose. Additionally, the sports betting market is just that, a market. Markets typically tend towards efficiency, especially when the market price- or betting line in this case- is established by many players risking large sums of money to establish the price. Historically, the most accurate estimate of what the correct price, or most accurate pregame projection of a game, is determined by the closing line of the game. The betting limits for games increase as more information, in the form of wagers, becomes available to bookmakers later in the week. Subsequently, the betting line movements leading up to kickoff ultimately move the betting line into place, settling at the most efficient public indicator of what the price should be at kickoff. Using the closing line, calculating closing line value becomes a fantastic measurement of a sound process in sports betting. Beating the closing line, or betting on a game at a better number than the game closes at, is extremely difficult, but also typically leads to sustainable long-term success.
One hypothetical example of beating the closing line would be betting on the Kansas City Chiefs at -4 on Friday afternoon when the line closes at -5.5. Here, the most efficient number is deemed to be -5.5, leaving the bettor with 1.5 points of closing value. Another hypothetical example, conversely, would be betting on the Carolina Panthers at +7 on Friday afternoon when the line closes at +4 at kickoff. In this example, there would be 3 points of closing line value for the wager on Carolina. As previously stated, consistently registering bets with positive closing line value is a great signal of a bettor who should find success in the future. This season, closing line value (CLV) will be tracked for all recommended wagers, along with the win-loss and profit-loss totals.
Results
Week 7 Review
- Cleveland Browns -3.5 (-102), LOSS -1.02 units
- Seattle Seahawks/Arizona Cardinals o50.5 (-115), WIN +1.00 unit
Week Profit: -0.02 units
Total Profit: -5.74 units
Week 7's potential 2-0 card went up in flames at the end of the 1:00 PM ET games in a laughable manner. The Cleveland Browns, taking on the Cincinnati Bengals, came out flat and fell behind early. Thankfully, the team played like their hair was on fire in the second half, storming back from a seven-point halftime deficit to take the lead late in the game. Unfortunately, right when the offense found a groove, the defense crumbled under pressure by allowing multiple late-game scoring drives and dropping a few interceptions that could have sealed the victory for the team and our wager. With the game on the line, Baker Mayfield put the team on his back with a remarkable drive in the final minutes to put the team up by three points, with the potential to extend the lead to four with an extra point. Unfortunately, much like Cleveland's defense, the moment was too big for Cody Parkey. Parkey surely felt the pressure of the fate of the Beating the Odds betting card hinging on his 32-yard kick, and he choked. The Browns ultimately won the game by just three points, and failed to cover for us in a way only the Browns could manage to pull off. Fortunately, the late-night hammer of the over on Sunday Night Football came through big time. Both the Seahawks and Cardinals lived up to expectations, as they aired out the football and lit up the scoreboard all game long. Although the over was secured early in the fourth-quarter, there was no shortage of excitement in this game. Seattle's offense faltered late in the game, affording the Cardinals an opportunity to drive down the field and get into field goal position with an opportunity to tie the game and send it to overtime. After Arizona converted, overtime itself was a thriller as well. Seattle failed to get into scoring position at any point in the ten-minute period, while Arizona drove down the field multiple times. Following a missed field goal with about 2 minutes left in the game, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks took over, only to turn the ball over and give it back to the Cardinals and put them in a position to win. Fortunately for Arizona fans, Zane Gonzalez was not going to make the same mistake twice, as he nailed the game-winning field goal this time around in a thriller that amassed 71 points between the 2 teams.
Now, let's get into this weekend's plays, of which there are two. As always please ensure you are never gambling more than you can afford to lose, and try to have as much fun as possible along the way.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS, TOTAL: 50.5
PICK: OVER 50.5 (-106), RISK 1.325 UNITS TO WIN 1.25 UNITS
This new-look Las Vegas Raiders' offenses is one of the league's more explosive units in the NFL thanks, in no small part, to shrewd offseason moves to acquire numerous playmakers. Earlier in the season, I highlighted the potential impact of the inclusion of Henry Ruggs in Las Vegas' offense. Ruggs, as one of the league's fastest players, is one of the best deep-threats around. The attention he commands from opposing defenses opens up the intermediate area of the field for Las Vegas' Pro Bowl tight end, Darren Waller, to go to work. Derek Carr's passing tendencies have changed to better suit the personnel that surrounds him. Earlier in his career, Carr was more of a dink-and-dunk passer that was apparently allergic to airing the ball out. Now, with weapons like Henry Ruggs and Nelson Algholor to stretch the field, Carr recently said that throwing the ball deep is "becoming who we are." The Raiders' new offensive identity has accompanied an uptick in offensive output, as they have scored at least 34 points in half of their games this season. In a Week 8 matchup with a Cleveland Browns' struggling defense that ranks 24th in the league in DVOA allowed and has allowed at least 30 points in over 70-percent of their games the season, the Raiders should score with relative ease this weekend.
The Cleveland Browns 2020 season has been an exciting one, if nothing else. Through 7 games, their offense has scored over 30 points in 5 of them. Despite the team's run-heavy offensive approach, the Browns consistently find themselves in shootouts. This combination of a subtly-explosive offense with an inconsistent defense was on full display last weekend against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Browns proved to be totally incapable of limiting the Bengals through the air, especially after the catch, as Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and A.J. Green each surpassed 70 receiving yards, with Higgins and Boyd finding paydirt. Fortunately for Browns fans, Baker Mayfield captured lightning in a bottle after a cold start, completing his final 22 pass attempts of the day (aside from one spike to stop the clock.) One interesting aspect of Baker's stellar Week 7 performance was that it came largely without Odell Beckham on the field. Numerous analysts across the industry have speculated that the Browns' passing attack may be more efficient without OBJ on the field. The reasoning for this hypothesis is that with OBJ on the field, Baker Mayfield focuses too hard on feeding Beckham the ball, regardless of what the defense shows him. Without Beckham on the field, Mayfield fully processes and digests what defenses throw at him, leading him to smarter decisions when distributing the ball to his various playmakers. While it is pure speculation at this point, considering the sample of plays sans Odell Beckham is very small, there is certainly merit to this theory. In Week 8, after factoring in the impact of Las Vegas' 31st-ranked defense in DVOA allowed, the Browns should have no trouble lighting up the scoreboard and doing their fair share of the work to push this game over the 50.5-point total.
In this battle between two improving offenses and struggling defenses, the true total for the game should be closer to 55 than where it currently sits at 50.5. This discrepancy leads to a 1.325 unit wager on the over at FanDuel Sportsbook, which would net 1.25 units if it wins.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
PICK: PITTSBURGH STEELERS ML (+176), RISK 1.0 UNIT TO WIN 1.76 UNITS
This weekend, the top two teams in the AFC North go head-to-head in the first battle for the top spot in the division. Both the Steelers and Ravens have been wildly impressive this season, with the only loss between the two teams coming to the Kansas City Chiefs. On Pittsburgh's side of the ball, a rejuvenated passing attack has led the team to an undefeated 6-0 start to the 2020 campaign. The keys to this hot start on offense have been the return of Ben Roethlisberger to the starting lineup and the plethora of pass-catching options at his disposal. JuJu Smith-Schuster's per-game totals are down overall, but he still commands attention from opposing defenses thanks to the impressive work he has put in over recent seasons. Smith-Schuster's reputation has enabled Pittsburgh's other young receivers, like Diontae Johnson, James Washington, and Chase Claypool, to thrive. When Diontae Johnson is healthy, he is one of the league's best young receiving threats, and his numbers in games he has been fully healthy for back that up. Across the trio games where he has played at least 75-percent of the team's offensive snaps, Johnson has commanded at least 10 targets in every one of them to go along with 3 trips to the endzone. Additionally, in the time he missed, Pittsburgh's first selection in the 2020 NFL Draft, Chase Claypool, proved to be an NFL-ready wide receiver. Although it would be exceptionally difficult for all three of these receivers to thrive in the same game, the sheer volume of dangerous playmakers on the outside will ensure that Pittsburgh's passing attack is one of the most dangerous units in the league. The Steelers' elite offensive line, which checks in as one of the top-10 lines in the league, should hold up well and keep Roethlisberger protected in the pocket, even against Baltimore's impressive defense.
While Baltimore's 5-1 record is undoubtedly impressive, and no one will argue that the Ravens do not rank amongst the league's best teams, their schedule before the team's Week 7 bye was underwhelming. The Ravens only faced two teams with a winning record; the Cleveland Browns in Week 1 and the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 3. While the Ravens dominated the Browns in their season-opener, they came up short against the Chiefs in a game that they never were truly in a position to win. That Week 3 loss also highlighted the team's inability to play an efficient game while trailing. In Lamar Jackson's young career, the reigning MVP has never won a game when his team was trailing at halftime. Baltimore's run-heavy offensive attack puts the team at a significant disadvantage when playing from behind, as they shorten the game and do not give themselves ample opportunity to play catch-up. Also, in 2020, the Ravens' offense has looked like a shell of its former self. Expecting this unit to match the gaudy efficiency numbers it posted last season would be unreasonable, but the drop-off has been substantial. In 2019, Lamar Jackson threw for nearly 210 yards-per-game in addition to over 80 yards-per-game on the ground. Through 6 games this year, Jackson has posted less than 200 yards-per-game through the air and under 60 rushing yards-per-game. In Week 8, a brutal matchup against Pittsburgh's defensive line, which applies pressure on opposing quarterbacks more than any other defensive front in the league, could spell trouble for Baltimore's offense.
Overall, the Ravens are still justified favorites in this game. However, the current moneyline on the Steelers implies that they have approximately a 36-percent chance of winning this game. The true probability of a Pittsburgh victory, according to my projections, is closer to 42-percent. This notable difference between the betting market and my projections leads to a 1.0-unit wager at on the Steelers at FanDuel Sportsbook to win outright this weekend and net us 1.76 units of profit if they win.
Summary of Picks
- Pittsburgh Steelers ML (+176), risk 1.0 unit to win 1.76 units
- Cleveland Browns/Las Vegas Raiders o50.5 points (-106), risk 1.325 units to win 1.25 unit
As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions, comments, concerns, or feedback regarding this article and how I can improve it moving forward
