Introduction
Before diving into the nitty-gritty of this week's bets, it is important to establish a few key concepts that will come up repeatedly throughout the season. First and foremost, all bets will be recommended with an accompanying unit amount, typically somewhere between 0.5 and 2.0 units. One unit should equate to approximately one-percent of your allotted bankroll that you use for wagering across various sports. Arguably the most important aspect of being a winning sports bettor is proper bankroll management. By wagering in accordance with the recommended unit amounts-- totaling to a small percentage of your bankroll each week- this will ensure that you are never risking more than you can afford to lose. Additionally, the sports betting market is just that, a market. Markets typically tend towards efficiency, especially when the market price- or betting line in this case- is established by many players risking large sums of money to establish the price. Historically, the most accurate estimate of what the correct price, or most accurate pregame projection of a game, is determined by the closing line of the game. The betting limits for games increase as more information, in the form of wagers, becomes available to bookmakers later in the week. Subsequently, the betting line movements leading up to kickoff ultimately move the betting line into place, settling at the most efficient public indicator of what the price should be at kickoff. Using the closing line, calculating closing line value becomes a fantastic measurement of a sound process in sports betting. Beating the closing line, or betting on a game at a better number than the game closes at, is extremely difficult, but also typically leads to sustainable long-term success.
One hypothetical example of beating the closing line would be betting on the Kansas City Chiefs at -4 on Friday afternoon when the line closes at -5.5. Here, the most efficient number is deemed to be -5.5, leaving the bettor with 1.5 points of closing value. Another hypothetical example, conversely, would be betting on the Carolina Panthers at +7 on Friday afternoon when the line closes at +4 at kickoff. In this example, there would be 3 points of closing line value for the wager on Carolina. As previously stated, consistently registering bets with positive closing line value is a great signal of a bettor who should find success in the future. This season, closing line value (CLV) will be tracked for all recommended wagers, along with the win-loss and profit-loss totals.
Results
Week 3 Review
- San Francisco 49ers -3.5 (-110): WIN +1.0 unit, CLV: -0.54 points
- Carolina Panthers +6.5 (-106): WIN +1.0 unit, CLV: +0.47 points
- Atlanta Falcons -3 (-112): LOSS -1.68 units, CLV: -0.56 points
Week Profit: +0.32 units
Total Profit: -2.19 units
Total CLV: +3.80 points
Week 3 was a wild one across the board, especially for Beating the Odds. A 3-0 weekend was well within reach. I could practically taste it. The San Francisco 49ers were handling business in the Meadowlands exactly as they were expected to, with Kyle Shanahan running circles around Joe Judge schematically. Nick Mullens threw the ball all over the field, totaling over 300 passing yards on the day, in addition to one passing touchdown. In fact, Mullens' efficient play was enough to lead one curious beat writer to inquire whether the 49ers would potentially consider turning to Mullens as their long-term quarterback. Shanahan quickly shut that down, stating it was not a conversation that would take place at any point in time, but the efficiency of San Francisco's offense with Mullens at the helm is undeniably impressive-- it is not crazy to think he is a starting-caliber quarterback in the NFL right now. San Francisco went on to win the game 36-9, easily covering the spread without a sweat. Unfortunately, disaster struck down south in Atlanta as Mullens was shredding the Giants. Early in the game, everything was going exactly according to script; Calvin Ridley was getting open regularly, Matt Ryan was peppering him with targets and gashing the Bears' defense for chunk plays offensively. Opposite them, the Bears' offense was sputtering with Mitchell Trubisky under-center. Aside from one 45-yard scramble from Trubisky, Chicago's offense did not have a single play of 20+ yards with him at quarterback. Ultimately, Matt Nagy made the gutsy decision to pull Trubisky from the game on the team's second drive of the 3rd quarter, trailing 26-10, in favor of Nick Foles, a proven miracle-worker. Personally, as an Eagles fan, Nick Foles will forever have a special place in my heart for his heroic performance in Philadelphia's lone Super Bowl victory-- although I am decidedly not a member of the "Philadelphia should have kept Foles instead of Wentz" camp. This past weekend, my love-hate relationship with Nick Foles reached an all-time extreme, as he led the Bears to a massive 20-point 4th quarter and comeback-victory over the Atlanta Falcons. This incredible comeback by Chicago and collapse by Atlanta led some to speculate that divine intervention is the only reasonable explanation, and honestly I am not entirely convinced they are wrong. This devastating collapse made for the only loss for Beating the Odds in Week 3, as the final game of the afternoon between the Panthers and Chargers also played out exactly as it was predicted to. Justin Herbert's conservative passing style was bottled up by Carolina's defense from the beginning. While Carolina's offense struggled to convert in the red zone, they went into halftime with an 18-7 lead thanks to a touchdown pass from Teddy Bridgewater to Mike Davis in addition to a quartet or Joey Slye field goals. This lead proved insurmountable, as Herbert was not able to truly test the Carolina Panthers' secondary down the field at all in the game. Ultimately, the Panthers not only covered the +6.5-point spread, but they also won outright, registering Matt Rhule's first victory as an NFL head coach.
Overall, Week 3 was a success, with one unfathomable collapse turning what would have been a 3-0, +3.5-unit week into a 2-1, +0.32-unit week. Additionally, looking at last week's CLV numbers, we lost slightly against the close in two spots, while we beat the close in one. In both situations we lost value against the closing line, it was due to injury news that came in leading up to kickoff. In last week's article, I noted that both George Kittle and Julio Jones were both questionable for their respective games, but there would be value backing their teams regardless of either player's status. Both players were confirmed to be inactive once the weekend came around, which caused the market to adjust and move against Atlanta and San Francisco. In the long-term, late-breaking injury news will certainly play a factor in our CLV, both for us and against us. This past weekend, the news was not in our favor, but that's just the way the cookie crumbles sometimes and it comes with the territory, all we can do is properly account for the potential impact and adjust and wager accordingly. Fortunately, it did not hurt the bottom-line profit too much, as we still came out ahead on the week's wagers.
In Week 4, we only have 2 wagers on the Beating the Odds card, as there is not enough value elsewhere on the board to warrant a wager on any of the other games.
As always, please gamble responsibly, never risk more than you can afford to lose, and, perhaps most importantly, have fun throughout the roller coaster ride that is an NFL Sunday. Football is back and there's nothing better than kicking your feet up on a Sunday afternoon and watching the NFL. Now, if you're looking for a fun sweat across a trio of games this weekend, let's dig into where you will be best served investing your money.
Note: The phrase "neutral-script" situations is used regularly throughout this article when analyzing team play-calling tendencies. For readers unfamiliar with the term, "neutral-script" situations are all snaps between the 20-yard-lines (excluding plays pinned deep in a team's own territory or in the red zone, where play-calling characteristics change dramatically) and the score is within seven-points in either direction. The score threshold is used to remove data from situations where a team is either (1) playing from behind and facing a large deficit-- typically teams in this situation opt to throw the ball more than they otherwise would in an attempt to score points as quickly as possible-- or (2) playing with a substantial lead-- teams in this situation typically deploy an exceptionally run-heavy offense to kill the clock. Both situations skew the data, which makes filtering them out the optimal way to approach play-calling tendencies.
New Orleans Saints (-4.5) @ Detroit Lions | TOTAL: 54
Pick: under 54 (-110), risk 1.1 units to win 1.0 unit at FanDuel Sportsbook
It is no secret that scoring is up in the NFL this season compared to previous years. The secret lies in the question, “Why is scoring up in the NFL this season?” Is this due to an absence of home-field-advantage to rattle the opposing offense? Did the lack of a normal offseason set defenses back more than it has set back offenses, giving the offensive side of the football a substantial edge early in the season? Could penalties be playing a role in this? Numerous NFL bettors and analysts have dug into this exact topic, investigating all of these potential angles, and providing plenty of quality research and information on Twitter. While taking data and analysis found on Twitter as fact without digging deeper into the nuance of the analysis is not recommended, using interesting data studies and points of analysis from trusted sources on Twitter as a starting point for additional research is a fantastic way to broaden one’s horizons and learn more as an analyst or bettor. Here are three tweets that stood out to me this week and led me to dig into this week’s 1.1 unit play on the New Orleans-Detroit matchup staying under 54 total points.
Totals are definitely on the rise this year!
— Lee Sharpe, â›“ï¸ @ ðŸ (@LeeSharpeNFL) October 1, 2020
In the article, I talk about market adjustment as well as the impact of changes to how officials are calling various penalties this year! pic.twitter.com/VbsSJ3QZKs
Why is NFL scoring up 5.4 points per game vs. last season? It's simple. The game is being officiated way differently. pic.twitter.com/PrKWiifgq2
— Rob Pizzola (@robpizzola) September 29, 2020
Effect of offensive holding penalties on total offensive EPA per game:
— Rufus (@RufusPeabody) September 30, 2020
2018-2019: -2.24 EPA
2020: -1.19 EPA
So the lack of offensive holding calls has added ~ 1 point per game to overall scoring this NFL season.
First, Lee Sharpe’s tweet succinctly summarized the change in the scoring environment this season. The uptick in scoring is not a figment of our imaginations. Perhaps most notably, games have gone over the betting market total at a 60-percent clip, showing that even after adjusting for early-season data, games throughout the first three weeks of the 2020 season have been remarkably higher scoring than the betting market has expected.
Next, Rob Pizzola peeled back this topic one additional layer, diving into why games this season have been higher scoring. His early conclusion was obvious: officiating. Through three weeks, an admittedly small sample, the officiating tendencies appear to heavily favor offenses. Most notably, offensive holding penalties are down significantly, and defensive pass interference (DPI) penalties are up significantly. Defensive pass interference is arguably the most impactful penalty in modern football, as it frequently serves as a bail-out option for offenses attempting high-risk and high-reward passes that have little likelihood of being completed. As a spot-foul, offenses can gain large chunks of free yards through this increased rate of DPI calls, leading to higher-scoring affairs.
Lastly, Rufus Peabody took the penalty analysis one step further, quantifying the scoring impact of the changes in officiating tendencies. According to his metrics, the EPA (expected points added) to a game via holding penalties has gone from -2.24 points-per-game throughout the 2018 and 2019 seasons to just -1.19 points-per-game this season. For those of you that are unfamiliar with this metric and how it is being applied here, allow me to explain: penalties typically hurt offenses more than they help offenses. On average, offenses subtracted 2.24 points per game from their scoring expectations through holding penalties across the 2018 and 2019 seasons. Now, in 2020, offenses are only deducting an average of 1.19 points per game from their pre-snap expectations through holding penalties-- this 1.05 point increase in scoring derived purely from changes in officiating has a significant impact on projections, and the market is adjusting (or perhaps over-adjusting, as we will investigate later) accordingly.
Now, let’s delve into the specifics of this matchup between a pair of 1-2 NFC teams. The New Orleans Saints are averaging 29.3 points-per-game on offense this season through their first three games. However, the surface-level data is very misleading in this case. In Week 1, the Saints scored 34 points on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but they tallied only 271 total yards of offense. The Saints’ defense and special teams provided a massive boost to the offense in their season opener, as a handful of takeaways led to short-field scoring opportunities, in addition to a pick-six by Janoris Jenkins. To add insult to injury, Michael Thomas suffered an ankle injury late in Week 1 that has kept him sidelined ever since, leaving his status for this weekend in doubt. Next, in Week 2, Drew Brees looked uncomfortable in the pocket once again, refusing to throw the ball downfield with any regularity. Fortunately, thanks to plenty of unexpected garbage time production, Brees was able to muster a misleading 312-yard and 1-touchdown passing day against the Las Vegas Raiders. Throughout the game, the red flags for this passing attack were obvious, but one stands out above the rest: late in the game, during a two-minute drill where the Saints needed to find the endzone quickly, Drew Brees consistently opted for short dump-downs to Alvin Kamara instead of throwing the ball down the field. If Brees is unwilling and/or unable to throw the ball down the field with the game on the line, when his team desperately needs to get to the endzone quickly, then there is little hope that anything will change on this front in the near future. On the whole, Brees’ Week 2 showing was highly concerning despite the story the box score attempts to tell. Last week against the Green Bay Packers, the story was much the same: Drew Brees finished the night with a respectable stat-line that is not backed up by anything remotely impressive on the field. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Drew Brees refused to throw the ball down the field in Week 3 against the Packers. Brees threw the ball to running back Alvin Kamara 14 times throughout the game, and while Kamara is an electric playmaker capable of making defenders miss after-the-catch, the reliance on the short pass is a massive issue for New Orleans’ offense. Overall, through three games, Drew Brees ranks dead-last in the NFL amongst qualified passers in intended-air-yards-per-attempt at 4.6 air-yards-per-attempt. For reference, the NFL average is approximately 8.0 air-yards-per-attempt, and the NFL leaders in this metric typically finish north of 10.0 air-yards-per-attempt. New Orleans has made great use of garbage-time opportunities throughout their first three games, but a deeper analysis of their early-season offense reveals cause for concern. Lastly, as noted earlier, penalties, and specifically an increase in defensive pass interference calls, have played a massive role in the increased scoring numbers across the NFL. New Orleans’ reluctance to push the ball down the field negates any potential edge that offenses have gained through a higher rate of defensive pass interference calls. Fortune favors the bold, and early in the 2020 season, Drew Brees has been anything but bold.
On Detroit’s side of the football, the Detroit Lions’ player usage tendencies have been mind-boggling early in the season. Across the last three NFL Drafts, the Lions have spent two second-round draft picks on running backs by selecting Kerryon Johnson and D’Andre Swift. One would assume that this core of young playmaking talent in the backfield would handle the majority of the work for Detroit, especially since Kerryon Johnson has already proven to be an efficient NFL running back, and D’Andre Swift is one of the best young running back prospects in recent memory. That, however, has not been the case, as Matt Patricia opted to sign 35-year-old Adrian Peterson after the Washington Football Team waived him following training camp. Laughably, Peterson leads the Lions in carries through three games, with more than twice as many touches as the Lions’ next-most-featured running back. Overall, the personnel decisions in Detroit’s backfield are not the most worrying part of this offense, as the personnel in the backfield rarely has a significant impact on the game, as I have noted many times before. The most worrying part of this offense is the play-calling decisions that are made in conjunction with the personnel decisions. Late in his career, Adrian Peterson is a very one-dimensional player that provides little-to-no-value in the passing game. The decision to play Peterson more than either of Detroit’s younger and more versatile running backs coincides with the team deploying a run-heavy offensive attack that holds Matt Stafford and the team’s explosive receiving corps back. The Lions have run the football on nearly 40-percent of their 2nd-and-long plays this season, the 8th-highest rate in the NFL. Research has proven that, in general, passing is the most efficient way to move the football down the field and light up the scoreboard, while running the football in predictable 2nd-and-long situations, often with the goal of setting up “3rd-and-manageable”, is one of the easiest ways for an offensive coordinator to stifle a potentially-dangerous offense through sheer ignorance. The overall inefficiency of Detroit’s play-calling is the biggest issue for this team’s offense. Until there is a fundamental change to the way Darrell Bevell-- a historically run-heavy offensive coordinator, dating back to his days with the Seattle Seahawks-- calls plays, we should expect this offense to continue to boggle minds with suboptimal play-calling and personnel decisions.
In sum, the betting market has over-adjusted and over-corrected for the new high-scoring environment fostered by a change in officiating tendencies. The New Orleans Saints’ offense is heavily reliant upon short dump-off passing plays, which fail to capitalize on the higher rate of defensive pass interference calls this year. For Detroit, their run-heavy offensive approach to the game, utilizing a one-dimensional 35-year-old running back instead of their pair of younger and more-dynamic options, will restrain their offensive attack. This game projects to total approximately 50 total points, substantially lower than the current betting market total of 54 points, which is over-adjusting for the variety of new factors at play this season. This value warrants a 1.1-unit wager on 54 total points being scored in the game to win 1.0 unit at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Buffalo Bills (-3, -112) @ Las Vegas Raiders | TOTAL: 52.5
Pick: Buffalo Bills -3 (-112), risk 1.4 units to win 1.25 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook
The Buffalo Bills have ridden the hot-hand of quarterback Josh Allen to a scorching 3-0 start that includes a victory over the Los Angeles Rams last weekend, which required a game-winning drive from Josh Allen in the final minutes after the team squandered a 28-3 lead in the third quarter. On the whole, the Buffalo Bills are one of the most analytically-driven teams in the NFL. Say what you want about analytics and the rise in a numbers-driven approach to football, but it is undeniable that the teams that have been quick to embrace analytics and use them as a driving force behind their respective offensive strategies are producing at a substantially higher level than their counterparts. While the full explanation of what exactly “analytics” truly means and what they advise is highly nuanced, here are the spark notes:
- Do not run the football on 2nd-and-long.
- Utilize play-action early and often. Teams do not need to “establish the run” for play-action to be effective.
- Utilize pre-snap motion frequently to help quarterbacks identify defensive coverages as early as possible.
- Do not punt after you cross midfield. Instead, go for it on 4th-down (except in extreme 4th & long situations or a situation in which a field goal wins you the game.)
- When in scoring-range, go for it on 4th-down instead of kicking a field goal, especially if it is 4th-and-less-than-5.
- Go for it on 4th-down a lot more than teams typically do
- Once a team has crossed midfield, do not punt the football except in extreme 4th-and-long scenarios.
- Even in field-goal-range, teams should go for it on 4th-down in neutral-script situations when the yards-to-go for a 1st-down is less-than 5 yards (this number is not a fixed benchmark, just a general rule-of-thumb.)
- Go for it on 4th-and-1 every single time in neutral-script situations. Quarterback sneak plays gain at least 1 yard over 90-percent of the time, even when the defense knows it’s coming.
The Bills adhere to all of these rules and utilize all of these offensive concepts as much as any team in the NFL. This season, the Bills have thrown the ball on 74-percent of all neutral-script 2nd-and-long plays, the highest rate in the NFL. Additionally, the Bills have utilized play-action on 39.5-percent of their passing plays this season, the 4th-highest rate in the NFL, producing a league-high 489 passing yards on those pass attempts. Overall, while little has changed regarding how accurately Josh Allen is throwing the football compared to recent seasons, this offensive attack has been carefully crafted by a team of experts to maximize his efficiency, moving the ball down the field. The Bills relentlessly prey on defensive vulnerabilities through a heavy dose of pre-snap motion and post-snap play-action. Additionally, Allen’s athleticism at the quarterback position allows offensive coordinator Brian Daboll to get creative, calling designed runs to get Allen in space with 10 blockers in front of him, as well as rolling him out of the pocket, taking the defense out of its standard alignment. But, that’s enough about what kind of plays the Bills are calling-- after all, what does it matter if the sharp play-calling does not translate into on-field production? Fortunately, in this case, it has led to a clear and obvious uptick in offensive efficiency for Josh Allen and the rest of the Bills’ offense. Through three games, the Bills average over 400 yards of total offense per game, gaining over 300 yards-per-game through the air to go along with over 100 yards-per-game on the ground. Expect nothing to change this weekend against the Las Vegas Raiders, who were just gashed by a watered-down New England Patriots offense that appeared to hold back, attempting to not put too much of its rebuilt offensive attack on tape with a marquee matchup against the Baltimore Ravens on deck the following weekend. Overall, Buffalo’s offense has a substantial advantage over the Raiders’ defense; the Bills should see little resistance moving the football down the field and scoring points in bunches here in Week 4.
The Las Vegas Raiders’ offense opened the season with a pair of highly impressive victories where they scored the ball in a variety of ways. In Week 1, Josh Jacobs ran for a trio of touchdowns as the Raiders posted 34 points against the Carolina Panthers’ historically young and inexperienced defense. Then, in Week 2, the Raiders matched their season debut, scoring 34 points in a Monday Night Football win over the New Orleans Saints. One of the most notable factors that played a massive role in the Raiders’ early-season successes scoring the football was the retooled receiving corps. The Raiders bolstered their aerial attack this offseason by selecting wide receivers Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards in the first and third rounds of the 2020 NFL Draft, respectively. Unfortunately, Edwards has been ruled out for this weekend’s game, and Ruggs is doubtful to play as well. This will be the second-straight game Ruggs has missed due to a knee injury he sustained in Week 1 (but played through in Week 2,) and the results without him on the field last weekend were atrocious. Ruggs, an awe-inspiring speedster out of Alabama that ran a 4.27-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, is a constant threat that commands the attention of opposing defenses. Whether it is his ability to run past and get in behind the secondary, or his ability to make defenders miss in the open field, Ruggs is a freak athlete that the defense must account for at all times. Without him on the field last weekend, the Patriots devoted their full attention to containing tight end Darren Waller. On the heels of a remarkable 16-target, 12-reception, and 105-yard performance against the Saints in Week 2, Waller was held to just 2 catches for 9 yards in Week 3. Expect the Raiders’ passing attack to struggle once again this weekend without its top two wide receivers, allowing the Buffalo Bills to zero-in on containing Darren Waller and forcing Derek Carr to beat them by relying on his second-tier offensive weapons. This battle projects to be a clash of two approximately-league-average units, with significant downside for the Las Vegas Raiders if their second-string wide receivers are unable to step into the starting lineup and produce after a pair of injuries two of Oakland’s starting wide receivers.
In total, given the Bills’ substantial edge on the offensive side of the ball over the Raiders’ defense, along with a net-neutral situation for Buffalo’s defense compared to Las Vegas’ offense, the Buffalo Bills project to have approximately a six-point edge in this matchup. At the current spread of Buffalo -3 (-112), we will have a 1.4-unit wager on the Bills to cover the spread and net 1.25 units of profit.
Summary of Picks
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions UNDER 54 points (-110), risking 1.1 units to win 1.0 unit at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Buffalo Bills -3 (-110), risking 1.4 units to win 1.25 units at DraftKings Sportsbook
As always, feel free to reach out to me directly on Twitter with any questions, comments, or concerns regarding this article-- I would love to hear any and all feedback you may have regarding how you think I can improve this article and provide more to you value down the line. Good luck all!
Follow @StillZam on Twitter here
