Should You Hurry To Draft Kyler Murray?

Photo: USA Today Sports

Should You Hurry to Draft Kyler Murray?

Kyler Murray is a hot commodity in drafts this year, with good reason. This time last year the fantasy world was divided about Murray's NFL future, as many wondered if a 5-foot-10 system quarterback who had one foot in baseball could possibly justify the first overall pick as the Cardinals new franchise quarterback. Fast forward and we now know Murray belongs in the league. He displayed confidence, consistency, and awareness that belies his age. With the Cardinals set to build off a last year's total remake, and with DeAndre Hopkins slotting into an already promising depth chart, Murray is on a shortlist for elite fantasy quarterbacks who could finish QB3 behind the consensus top two picks: Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. But it'll cost you, as his ADP leaves little room for error.

A meteoric rise gets off to a promising start

Kyler Murray went from undersized system quarterback at Oklahoma destined for a professional baseball career, to the first overall pick and cornerstone of Kliff Kingbury's initial foray as an NFL head coach. We don't need to re-litigate the Cardinals' decision to draft Murray No. 1 other than to say it was a controversial decision met with as many skeptics as supporters. The good news is Murray passed his rookie test with flying colors.

• 16 games started
• 349 completions
• 542 attempts
• 64.4% completion rate
• 3,722 passing yards
• 20 passing touchdowns
• 12 interceptions
• 93 rushes
• 544 rushing yards
• 4 rushing touchdowns
• QB9 ranking

QB9 overstates his season

Before forecasting Murray's 2020 outlook, it's important to frame 2019 properly. While he finished as a "top-10 quarterback," it misstates his actual fantasy value because he's one of the few quarterbacks to start and play all 16 games. Fantasy leagues rarely play through Week 17, and ultimately we measure success through a mix of games played and per-game production.

On a per-game basis, Murray ranked 14th.

The difference between QB9 and QB14 may not seem like much, but in most leagues, it's the difference between being a fantasy starter or backup. If you're in a 12-team league, you don't want a guy putting up QB14 numbers each week in your lineup unless you're stacked at every other position.

Another way to look at Murray's season is to see where he fell in terms of tiers. He scored 20.8 fantasy points per game last year. Josh Allen (20.7), Aaron Rodgers (20.3), and Jared Goff (20.0) were less than a point behind him, and Ryan Tannehill (21.8), Daniel Jones (21.2), and Carson Wentz (20.8) were a point of less ahead of him.

Any of those quarterbacks were serviceable QB1s in most weeks, but rarely provided you an edge like Lamar Jackson (30.5), Matthew Stafford (25.3), Dak Prescott (25.0), Deshaun Watson (24.5) did.

It was still a strong season for a rookie

While Murray's QB9 finish was misleading, it's still impressive in context. He was a rookie. He started immediately. He played for a first-time head coach and play-caller. And most importantly, he survived a 16-game season when the biggest knock on him was his 5-foot-10 frame and inherent durability risk.

In the last 20 seasons, 34 rookie quarterbacks played at least 14 games. Murray ranks:

• 9th in attempts per game (33.9)
• 4th in completions per game (23.7)
• 4th in completion rate (64.4%)
• 14th in yards per attempt (6.9)
• 11th in touchdown rate (3.7%)
• 6th in interception rate (2.2%)
• 5th in rushing yards per game (34.0)
• 6th in fantasy points per game (20.8)

It's a mixed bag at the top. Cam Newton was a perennial fantasy star when healthy, as was Andrew Luck. Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson have been fixtures in the QB1 rankings. Robert Griffin got hurt but looked every bit the elite player until his injury. Mayfield and Winston are more cautionary tales, although if that's the floor, it's hardly the worst outcome.

Two significant reasons to expect improvement

His rookie season, even if you're a skeptic, provides an encouraging foundation to build on. And there are two reasons to expect improvement.

Reason #1 -- Last year was Year 1 for everyone

The Cardinals were a blank canvas last year, undertaking a full rebuild. Murray wasn't the only new face. Kliff Kingsbury was a first-year head coach and play-caller. The entire offense had to learn his new system, which brought Air Raid concepts that most of the veterans had never seen. Sean Kugler brought a new blocking scheme to the offensive line. Vance Joseph rebuilt the defense. Kenyan Drake joined the team mid-year. KeeSean Johnson and Andy Isabella were rookies. And Kenyan Drake was a mid-season addition. It's logical to expect improvement in Year 2 of any system. Familiarity allows faster installs and more intuitive gameplay. Coaches can layer in additional tweaks because the base concepts are rote. Terminology becomes second nature, as does on-field communication and play-to-play chemistry.

Reason #2 -- Adding DeAndre Hopkins

Tom Brady leaving the Patriots for the Buccaneers was unquestionably the biggest story of the offseason. But the Cardinals' acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins was a close second, and may ultimately prove the more valuable move since Hopkins is in his prime while Brady is nearing the end of a Hall of Fame career.

Table: Most Fantasy Points, WR, 2013-2019 Cumulative

Since coming into the league in 2013, Hopkins ranks:

• 3rd with 632 receptions
• 3rd with 8,602 yards
• 2nd with 54 touchdowns
• 3rd with 1,821 fantasy points

On a per-game basis over that span he ranks:

• 8th with 5.7 receptions
• 7th with 78.2 yards
• 13th with 0.49 touchdowns
• 6th with 16.6 fantasy points

Adding Hopkins atop the receiving corps makes Murray's life significantly easier. Hopkins can handle – and dominate – a hefty target share facing off against opposing defenses' top corners. His presence allows emerging third-year Christian Kirk and ageless wonder Larry Fitzgerald to play situational roles against lesser defensive backs. And it means no longer trotting out low-value snaps from the likes of Damiere Byrd, Trent Sherfield, Pharoh Cooper, and Isabella.

Projections