In a Backfield Breakdown, we will look at a team's running backs from all angles. Is there a bell-cow back on the roster? How about sleepers? What roles do we foresee from these backs?
Let's find out about the Dolphins right now.
When Ryan Fitzpatrick leads your team in rushing (with 243 yards...that's right...243), your rushing attack has issues. The Dolphins recognized this and addressed the running back position over the offseason heavily in free agency (signing Jordan Howard and Matt Breida) and slightly in the NFL Draft (taking Malcolm Perry in the seventh round). Sticking around from last year are Patrick Laird, Myles Gaskin, and Kalen Ballage.
Is this a two-man show in 2020? Can either Howard or Breida grab the lion's share of touches or will we often hear the dreaded phrase "we'll ride the hot hand" from the Miami coaching staff? Do you expect anything at all from Laird, Gaskin, or Ballage?
How does this backfield shake out in 2020?
Jeff Tefertiller
I am expecting Howard to dominate touches. He has been productive in two very different offenses on two teams and will be the bellcow. Breida has looked great in spurts but has battled injuries throughout his career.
Howard is still only 25 years of age and still has plenty of tread left on the tires. For those not remembering how good Howard has been, he has 3,895 rushing yards on 897 carries (4.3 average), with 30 touchdowns. He also has 82 receptions. In Philadelphia last year, Howard had 119 carries for 525 yards (4.4 average) and 6 touchdowns before going down to injury. He added 10 receptions.
Breida is also just 25 years old. I guess Miami has a type. One odd stat is that Howard has more career receptions (82) than Breida (67) even though some consider the latter the superior receiver.
As for the rest of the backs, none are viable options even if these two are injured.
Jeff Pasquino
I agree with Jeff that this is, without a doubt, a two-man backfield.
Miami is virtually a clean slate after the dearth of productivity last year. The Dolphins acquired both Jordan Howard and Matt Breida this off-season, and it is highly likely that both will be utilized significantly and get the vast majority of the running back work in Miami this season. The questions left to answer are the splits of the snaps and opportunities for both veterans.
A quick look at the money situation, which can often point to who will get more work, shows that neither player costs that much. Howard signed a 2-year deal for around $10M, but this is a team-friendly contract for about $5M this year and a $5M option for next (no dead cap money if cut in 2021). Breida was acquired during the draft in April for a fifth-round pick (153rd overall) from San Francisco, who already had too many tailbacks. Breida would like a contract extension, but how he fits in with the team and uncertainty about the future NFL cap situation are both standing in the way of that new deal.
So what is the expected mix of work for Breida and Howard? Howard is a brute force, between the tackles runner built for short-yardage and goal-line carries (6'0", 230). His career touchdown mix points to just that, as he has 30 rushing scores vs. just two as a receiver, and 18 of those 30 rushes are from three yards or less. That screams "goal line back" if ever there was one.
Breida is practically the opposite, as he has ridiculous speed and was clocked at over 22MPH last season on an 83-yard touchdown - the fastest speed recorded by any NFL player last season, a record he also set in 2018 according to NextGenStats. While Howard may have more career catches than Breida (82 vs. 67), Breida has one less year of NFL experience and - most importantly - Breida's receptions represent 15% of his career touches, while Howard's rate is nearly half of that (receptions represent only 8% of his career touches). All this points to Howard being the run-first back, while Breida is the longer distance and receiving back - the lightning to Howard's thunder.
What's the best fantasy approach for the Miami backfield? Well, it is relatively cheap to own both backs here, especially for teams sitting at or near the 8/9 turn in 12-team drafts. Howard's ADP projects him as an RB3 going off the board near the end of Round 8, while Breida is likely taken in Round 9 as an RB4. The question is whether owning the entire Miami backfield is worth it, but it could form a solid RBBC for a team taking a Top 3-4 back in Round 1 and focusing the next six picks mostly or entirely at other positions. Given that both backs have some injury history, one of them could become the true feature back if the other were to miss time, boosting either Howard or Breida to a solid RB2 option. If it came down to one back, I would go with Breida, but taking both in Rounds 8 and 9 to pair with a Top 5 RB1 is not a bad strategy if your fantasy draft falls that way.
Chad Parsons
Working back to front, I like what I saw from Patrick Laird last season. It was a default 'last man standing' type surge in usage with Kalen Ballage being forgettable-at-best with his touches. Matt Breida and Jordan Howard are both on the career rebound with a team change in the offseason. Howard is a Latavius Murray type after multiple years as an NFL starter, but now transitioning to a committee type role with upside from there. Howard is a grinder profile without much of a receiving profile, so high volume and touchdowns are the lone avenues to get Howard beyond the low-RB2 fantasy zone. I doubt Miami gets enough game script positivity to make Howard the answer here beyond a flex consideration at points during the season. That leaves Matt Breida, one of my favorite running backs to watch on tape during his career. Breida is averaging 5.0 yards-per-carry over 381 career carries, a significant sample size considering his efficiency. Breida has also churned a quality touchdown rate in the passing game. Breida is a dynamic athlete with two-way ability. Durability and how big of a workload he can shoulder are the big questions to Breida's upside. Breida is the PPR option in Miami to target and high-RB2 with RB1 moments is possible if Breida dominates the passing game snaps for a play-catch-up offense.
Phil Alexander
It's Howard's job on base downs with Breida mixing in on obvious passing plays, as well as to provide the occasional breather. Howard puts most fantasy gamers to sleep, but coaches seem to love him. As the guys have mentioned, he proved himself as Chicago's workhorse for three years and did well to hold off Miles Sanders in Philadelphia before getting hurt last season.
It wouldn't be shocking if Howard ends up the cheapest source of 250+ carries in fantasy football this season. Unfortunately, they might also be the worst 250+ carries in all of fantasy football. Miami's offensive line was horrendous last year. Even after investing early-round draft capital and bringing in some veteran help, our Matt Bitonti still has the Dolphins o-line ranked 31st. And as Chad said, favorable game scripts for Miami's running game will be a problem.
While volume could boost Howard toward steady RB3 numbers, we can safely expect zilch in the passing-game and limited weekly scoring upside. By the time you would have to consider Howard in drafts, you should be aiming to load your bench with potential championship-swingers at running back. Shoot for guys like J.K. Dobbins, Damien Williams, and Derrius Guice instead.
As for Breida, he's a backup on a bad team. Cross him off your draft list. If he were to get hurt (again), Laird would be worth a roster spot in PPR leagues.
Dan Hindery
Miami's top five running backs last year combined for 250.2 fantasy points in PPR scoring. Jordan Howard is coming in from an Eagles offense that had 447 points of fantasy production at the running back position. Matt Breida is coming over from San Francisco, a team that put up a combined 501 fantasy points at the running back position. Both guys have a great chance to eat up a bigger share of their team's running back pie this year. But as Phil notes (and last year's fantasy production highlights), this is likely to be a much smaller fantasy pie than their previous homes.
It is fair to project the Miami backfield to be more productive this season. It would be hard for it not to be. But even if we project improvement to something like 320 PPR fantasy points total from this backfield, it is hard to see either Howard or Breida putting up RB2 numbers unless one of them really dominates the touches. This is especially true here because you have Breida likely getting most of the receptions and Howard likely hogging the goal-line work, so they are going to be splitting the highest-value touches.
Despite that lukewarm projection, both still look like solid targets given how late they are going in drafts. I think you go into the season expecting each to put up low-end RB3 numbers (around 10 PPG in PPR scoring), which has some value in terms of depth. However, there is also a built-in upside if one of them gets injured. If so, I think you would end up with a very solid RB2 for as long as one of the two backs had the backfield to himself.
Jordan McNamara
While Jordan Howard was the starter in Chicago, he was essentially a replacement-level weekly player. If he starts in Miami and leads the backfield with 50%-60% of the touches I expect very similar production. Simply put, I'd rather have a higher variance set of options at the position.
Matt Breida has had a tumultuous career. He played through a high ankle sprain in 2018 and was rewarded in 2019 with a seat on the bench and a 2020 trade. Life can come at you quickly. I think Breida is the higher end fantasy player than Howard, but I question the receiving upside. Through his 43 career games, Breida has only been targeted 89 times and caught only 67 balls. Likewise, in college, Breida only caught 22 passes in 37 games. While he "fits the mold" of a receiving-centric back by stature, there is little historic basis to believe he will secure a high volume of targets and receptions in Miami.
This could create an opportunity for Patrick Laird in the passing game, but ultimately, I think there is little value in his role.
Andrew Davenport
I don't see anyone in this backfield earning much of a role behind Howard and Breida based on talent. But that buries the lede a bit because both backs have a history of injury problems so it's wise to understand that no matter what the preseason projections look like it wouldn't be shocking to see someone other than those two getting the carries during the year. The thing is, while Laird performed admirably when called upon, there really isn't any reason to invest in the backfield (for what payoff?) after Howard and Breida so I think it's easy to dismiss anyone after them on the depth chart. It isn't as if we are talking about a high powered rushing attack, so I'm operating as if Laird, Gaskin, and Ballage don't exist for fantasy purposes until I have evidence otherwise.
I see the split looking like Phil does, and not really as a hot-hand type of situation. Howard should dominate early-down work and I think it's likely he's the goal line back as well. He's certainly not an exciting option because of the limitations that the offensive line and the offense in general have, but there is a reason I'm happily snatching up Howard where he's going in drafts. I, like Phil, believe that he represents one of the last possible spots in a draft to grab a guy who is going to get the kind of usage he'll get if he stays on the field. That seems worth the selection because, if it works out I think, Howard will challenge for top-24 numbers.
Breida, on the other hand, is more of a wild card. I don't think he has shown he can be a pounder as an early-down guy and I don't think it's an accident that Miami paired these two guys up. Everything the Dolphins have done has had a purpose behind it, and this one feels like it is being telegraphed. Breida should spell Howard and be able to earn 125 carries, but where he'll make his impact is in PPR leagues catching the football. It isn't crazy to think Breida could push for 50 receptions.
The bottom line is, I'd feel more comfortable if I had both guys if I'm going to invest in one of them. That's not always possible, but it would be very odd to see these guys both play all 16 games. Locking down the guy who will benefit from any missed time is imperative. I do agree with Dan that the rushing pie is much smaller in Miami, so that should temper our expectations, but I also believe the Dolphins will take a step forward as a team this year. An increase in efficiency, a better defense, and an improved offensive line are all reasonable expectations. The Dolphins backfield is cheap, and I don't believe it is the wasteland current ADP says it is. I'm bullish on the direction of the team so I'm taking a chance on both guys if possible.
Jeff Haseley
As much as I like a good problem of picking the right running back to lead a sub-.500 team, I tend to shy away from targeting the Miami backs this year. If the value is good enough and I can get Jordan Howard as an RB4, I'll consider pulling the trigger. It appears as if Howard will be the first option for Miami on first and second down, as well as goal-line carries. Last year Howard scored five times on six carries inside the three-yard line. As a whole, he has never had less than seven touchdowns in each of his four years in the league. It all points to success, roses, and rainbows, however, the presence of Matt Breida puts a wrench into matters. The undrafted free agent and Florida-born Breida showed promise in Kyle Shanahan's offense and earned a contract with Miami. Howard may be the prime back for Miami right now with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, but the offense will change when Tua Tagovailoa earns his first snap. Will Howard still be the better running back for that offense? Will Breida? The point is, we don't know yet, and that's what has me concerned. Howard is likely the back to own, but we may be looking at a completely different offense that could alter the team's approach to using Howard after Tagovailoa is given the keys to the offense.
Sigmund Bloom
Miami was one of the worst running games in the league last year and despite an offensive line overhaul, it probably will remain in the league's bottom third. Both Breida and Howard are starting quality runners, but with different strengths and styles, and it would behoove the Dolphins to use them as a committee. Howard had a shoulder issue that didn't go away last year and Breida's injury history is well known, so the plan should be for neither to get more than 200 carries this year, but if one is boosted by injury upside, it will probably be Howard. It wouldn't shock me for either to have a sustained stretch of fantasy relevance and both are better best-ball than redraft picks. Laird or Gaskin may serve as a passing-down back, but Ballage has shown that despite his considerable physical gifts, he's not going to translate in the NFL.
Jason Wood
The general tenor of this conversation is where I sit. I think Miami quietly made moves over the last six months that should give its fanbase hope for a bright future, but I think part of a successful rebuild is understanding it's more than a one-year process. As others have noted, both Matt Breida and Jordan Howard are capable running backs, particularly on first and second downs. But neither is dynamic enough nor healthy enough to comfortably project as a full-time starter. I suspect the Dolphins coaches hope to use them interchangeably in a 1+1=3 committee. And while they're both healthy they could cobble together a league-average rushing attack. But for fantasy purposes, it's unclear to me whether either runner would be an every-week starter even if the other gets hurt.
Andy Hicks
I am curious about why Patrick Laird is a possibility. A 2.7 yards-per-carry on 62 attempts doesn’t show me anything. Sure he had some nice plays as a pass catcher, but I struggled to see anything but a guy filling a roster spot.
Kalen Ballage had the worst yards-per-carry of any running back.....ever. 1.8 yards-per-carry.
Put both of those players together and Miami had a problem running the ball. Or did they? Kenyan Drake, Mark Walton, and Myles Gaskin were around the 3.8 yards-a-carry area.
The bottom line is that Jordan Howard and Matt Breida are here and surely have to be upgrades. Howard has been underrated but is on his third team in three years. Breida doesn’t seem to be able to manage a heavy workload. Neither is in a better position than last year. As others have mentioned, these are the type of running backs you draft and hope they can exceed expectations, but you know they won’t. I would prioritize Howard clearly over Breida. His volume alone should make him a borderline RB2 on end-of-season stats, but the week-to-week production will make you wish you had someone else.
Matt Waldman
Matt Breida is the better talent unless you factor gm durability aa a skill—and in this case, I do. If Breida can stay healthy, he could reduce Howard’s role and deliver 7-10 weeks of 100-yard outputs due to his burst, long speed, and skill with creating against penetration into the backfield and efficient work with all run blocking schemes.
However, the 49ers only let Breida walk because of his injury history and they had depth. He was the team’s best pure talent. He’s so smooth at hitting developing creases and reaching the secondary in a blur.
We all know that Howard lacks breakaway speed but far fewer realize he’s one of the most efficient and productive runners in the league at generating big-play runs (the NFL considers runs of 12+ yards a big-play rush).
Howard is patient, mature as a decision-maker, and he runs with excellent contact balance and power. He’s a great example of a back that coaches, scouts, and teammates love but GMs and other front-office types dump to the side of the road for fast athletes who would have better luck finding creases if the team strapped them to a catapult and shot them into the open hole.
Howard should earn the majority of touches, but for as long as Breida remains healthy, that split could be much closer to even than some expect.
Ryan Hester
This is a stay-away situation. Howard should earn the lion's share of the touches, but Breida's talent will get him on the field. And Breida's injury history suggests that he may not earn workhorse status even if Howard were to miss time. Aside from that, there isn't a ton of run-game production to be had in this offense.
Bob Henry
As others have already pointed out, the Dolphins backfield is unlikely to reveal a fantasy pot of gold this year. Even so, Jordan Howard and Matt Breida offer a considerable talent upgrade to the running back room (at least since they dealt Kenyan Drake).
I've long been a bullish supporter of Howard even if he's more of a two-down player. Therein likes the challenge for his fantasy potential. I love the competitiveness this team showed late last season. With better talent and some key improvements on defense, they will at least be better this year and I think we'll some that fire and competitiveness leading to a few more games where Howard will be relevant longer.
Howard has talent as a runner. He is not washed up and he has been successful behind subpar offensive lines. If Tua emerges at quarterback sooner, it might lead to more stacked boxes initially, but it could also add some potential wrinkles for Chan Gailey. Tua may not run as often or be as wiggly as Russell Wilson, but his combination of athleticism and accuracy could open up the offense, especially if he can make good reads and smart decisions as he did collegiately,
In my view, it's definitely a two-back committee although Patrick Laird has a shot to start the season on passing downs, two-minute offense, and situational football that could reduce snaps for both Howard and Breida. I don't think that's as likely as it is possible.
Breida is my preferred option in PPR leagues and best-ball formats because he has the highest ceiling and his skills provide him a legitimate path to playing on all three downs and in all game situations. Injuries are obviously an issue for him. He has also been productive and efficient with his touches though he also benefited from much better blocking up front as a 49er. He has RB2/flex value if things break right for him, otherwise, he should at least be a quality flex option as long as he and Howard are dominating the snaps.
Howard will be more touchdown-dependent and unlikely to crash the top 20 running backs in any scoring format, but he's a solid choice to be among the next 15 and if the Dolphins improve faster than anticipated, Howard will be a solid RB3 to have during a season where depth will be more important than ever before.
