Before you get started here, if you haven't done so already, please check out my auction series.
If you have not read Part I yet, please click here to go there first.
So the questions that started Part 1 have been answered, but what players can you use in 2020 to enact this strategy? Keep in mind that auction targets can be serpentine targets too, but more often than not an auction target differs in one important facet: You can get that player in an auction for cheap when otherwise you wouldn’t be taking that player in a snake draft because that necessarily shuts you out from the other talent at that spot in the draft. As a quick example, you may not want Cam Akers in a serpentine draft because you must take him in the fifth round to get him. Players like Courtland Sutton, DK Metcalf, and Robert Woods are all being drafted in the same area and have fewer question marks and less bust potential. But if you could have both Akers AND one of those receivers? That’s your sweet spot. In fact, this article argues that you can aim even higher.
For this final section, auction values are going to be expressed as an exact dollar value, but the caveat is that you must think of the values as a range and let the deals come to you. Here are some excellent targets to be looking at when executing the wide receiver heavy strategy. Ideally, you will come out of the draft with three of the top-15 or four of the top-24 wide receivers to be able to use the advantage properly. Then it’s time to have some fun and nab a top tight end.
Numbers based on 12 teams, PPR scoring, 1 Quarterback, $200 cap:
- Mike Evans, $35 – Despite being a target hog he doesn’t get credit as having the upside of those around him. He was WR5 in PPR leagues when he got injured last year. Take that discount. Even if Tom Brady has a small negative impact on his numbers Evans can be your WR1 and he still isn’t drawing the top WR1 prices that the guys ahead of him do.
- D.J. Moore, $33 – He’s criticized for his lack of touchdown ability, but he’s developing into one of the best in the game and is a PPR machine. Getting out from under Kyle Allen should see his production spike. If you miss out on Evans, Moore can serve as a WR1.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster, $29 – This is all dependent on his quarterback coming back healthy, but one year ago he was being drafted near the top of his position. The recency bias should let you nab him cheaper than he should be.
- Robert Woods, $19 – Rock steady production on a good offense. He’s still not getting respect as a top option despite hauling in 90 balls last year.
- Tyler Boyd, $17 – Boyd also caught 90 passes last year but it was from Andy Dalton and Ryan Finley. You can argue Boyd all you want as a WR2 for your squad, but if he’s your WR3? That’s exactly what you’re after.
- D.J. Chark, Deebo Samuel, $14 – You don’t want to rely on these two guys for steady WR2 production. But if you get a good price as a WR4 it’s a no-brainer. Even as a WR3 these guys are weekly winners if they pop as your WR3 or flex.
This is not an exhaustive list of targets, and you can add/delete players from the list based on your own opinions. Also, note that you likely won’t be owning Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, Julio Jones, or Tyreek Hill because they will be too expensive for this method. It’s possible that you’ll find enough of a discount on DeAndre Hopkins or Chris Godwin to fit into this plan but by using these players and price points I listed above you can put together some excellent possible scenarios. Then you can add up the prices and see what you can do with 3 or 4 of them.
- Evans, Smith-Schuster, Woods, Chark = $97
- Moore, Smith-Schuster, Boyd, Samuel = $93
- Evans, Moore, Smith-Schuster = $97 (Imagine starting these three in a 12 teamer!)
Notice what you have done with these combinations. You have given yourself weekly rock-solid production with PPR machines in Moore/Smith-Schuster/Boyd types, with upside in Evans and Chark or Samuel. You’ve done all of this while spending less than half your cap. Now move on to running back.
- Kenyan Drake, $35 – There will be optimism for Drake so this price may not be possible, but if you can get him in this neighborhood he’s a perfect RB1 for this strategy – cheaper than the top guys, but has a strong role and is dripping with upside.
- Austin Ekeler, $31 – The concerns about how many passes he’ll catch are valid, but he’s going to see plenty of touches.
- Miles Sanders, $30 – You’re after either Sanders or Ekeler if you miss on Drake. It’s a matter of preference, but you need to get one of the top three listed here as your RB1 for this to be the optimal strategy.
- Todd Gurley, $22 – It’s a risk having Gurley knowing the situation with his knee. But that’s baked into the price. He’s going to be in a good offense and should be the goal line back. If he holds up for 250+ touches this is a good price.
- Chris Carson, Melvin Gordon, David Johnson, $21 – These guys can be lumped together in the same ballpark. They’ll see plenty of touches and have weekly touchdown upside. Getting one of them in the upper teens would be ideal.
- James Conner, $17 – Just a year ago he was being talked about as a Top 6 running back option. After an injury-filled season, the Steelers have said they’ll try and let him carry the load again. He’s the perfect cheap running back auction target – recency bias is driving his price down.
In this scenario, you can get one of the top running backs listed and then try to pair one of them with Carson, Gordon, Johnson, or Conner. However, focus on getting the best RB1 that fits your budget because your RB2 in this scenario is far less important than finishing your roster with a difference-maker at tight end or quarterback. Get a cheap RB2 from your list if possible, but generally, you want to completely blow off that spot unless value smacks you in the face. Your difference-makers for this scenario will be at the wide receiver and tight end position. Next, assume that you will pay very little for a quarterback because you want to land a top-three tight end and there are players in your auction who will pay top dollar for a quarterback leaving you free to take advantage elsewhere. Here are some good cheap auction targets at quarterback.
Daniel Jones – He has a strong group of offensive weapons and his defense is a bottom-tier unit. Jones finished as the QB16 in points per game last year and had some huge, week winning, games.
Jared Goff – The fantasy community is overreacting to his 2019 season. He’s fallen to the middle of the QB2 range in ADP. The Rams still threw the most passes in the NFL last year so Goff’s 3.5% touchdown rate should bounce back.
Teddy Bridgewater – He plays in a very tough division and has a bad defense on the other side of the ball. If the Panthers are going to be relevant they should be forced to throw the ball a lot. Having his explosive group of playmakers with that opportunity means he could easily pop.
The goal when grabbing one of these quarterbacks is to do so with the idea in mind that you can easily hedge your selection by grabbing two of them. You can do this for less than $5 in a lot of drafts. If not? Don’t sweat it. Take one of them and keep an eye on the waiver wire. Use your few dollars to snag a running back or wide receiver instead.
And finally, at tight end, there isn’t much to say. If you go for a top 4 tight end, you’ll have to pay somewhere in the neighborhood of $30-$35 for one of them. Travis Kelce may go for close to $40, and George Kittle is likely going to demand $32-$35. Mark Andrews and Zach Ertz should be a little cheaper so if you can nominate those two before Kittle and Kelce come off the board you might get a really good deal on one of them. That can be factored in for this strategy. Now go back and construct a full roster with this strategy and see how it looks.
- QB - $5
- RB - $35 (K. Drake)
- WR - $97 (Evans/Smith-Schuster/Woods/Chark)
- TE - $32 (Kittle, Ertz, or Andrews)
At this point, you have spent $169 of a $200 cap. The impressive thing, though, is that you have lots of wiggle room. If you wanted to sub out Drake for someone cheaper you instantly save money that you can put somewhere else. Then, if you’re following the auction strategies in the series, Mastering the Auction Draft, you can look for values where they present themselves and come up with more money that way. Obviously $31 is not a lot to fill out the rest of your roster, but that amount should go up if you are finding values along the way. For example, you had planned on getting Smith-Schuster as your WR3 but his price shot up to $38 and you bowed out. But then surprisingly Calvin Ridley falls in your lap at $24. Since you thought you’d spend $29 on Smith-Schuster and didn’t get him, you wisely kept your cool, passed, and then jumped on the Ridley deal instead. This nets you a very valuable $5 you can throw somewhere you need it most. And the worst-case scenario is that you spend that money and have about $30 to fill your kicker, defense, and a few backups. The meat of your roster is already filled out, and in a 12-team league, your starting roster will have plenty of good to great talent with almost no holes! Envision leaving the draft with this team:
- QB – Jared Goff
- RB – Kenyan Drake/James Conner
- WR – Mike Evans/JuJu Smith-Schuster/Robert Woods
- FLX – Tyler Boyd
- TE – George Kittle
Any time you attempt to predict auction values like you predict serpentine draft spots you will invariably get some things wrong. Often, because of factors beyond your control, you will be wildly wrong. But the fun of an auction is that the above roster is simply not possible in a serpentine format. Yet it’s possible in an auction even though it’s not easy! Isolating players that you feel strongly about in your rankings, and then going against the running back grain and snapping up players at other positions is a great way to stockpile lots of top talent. This is certainly not the only way to attack an auction in 2020, but it looks like one of the best.
For more from this author check out his other pieces found here.
For more on Auction Drafts and strategies visit the author's short video series, The Auction Brief, found here:
The Auction Brief - Episode 10: Shrug Your Shoulders Series
Follow @DrewFBGAuctions
