Why Aaron Jones is a Risky Pick

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Aaron Jones finally shook free of Mike McCarthy in 2019, recorded 285 touches, and put up one heck of a season. He finished second at the running back position in PPR scoring and recorded 19 total touchdowns. But this is not likely to occur again in 2020. He faces too many hurdles to be selected near the top of drafts this year. The Packers brought in a powerful rookie running back, A.J. Dillon, and the backfield is now a three-headed monster even if Jones remains the lead back. The real issue for him, however, is that in games when Davante Adams was on the field, Jones took a huge hit to his receiving numbers. If he regresses in touchdown production as he should, and the receiving numbers are paltry with Adams on the field, then Jones is way too risky to be spending the pick required to land him this year following his big 2019.

2019: A TALE OF TWO SEASONS

Jones had an interesting season for the Packers last year. While he scored the second-most PPR points in the league behind only Christian McCaffrey, and the aforementioned 19 touchdowns (16 rushing, 3 receiving), his final line doesn’t tell the full story.

Two players on the Packers offense suffered injuries during the season. Jamaal Williams missed Weeks 4, 5, and 17. Additionally, Davante Adams had a toe injury that cost him Weeks 5 through 8 (4 games). That’s where the story of Jones’ season is written.

Week 5 was the only game that both players missed. In that game against Dallas, Jones recorded 19 carries for 107 yards and four rushing touchdowns. He also chipped in 7 receptions and 75 yards receiving for a total of 49.2 PPR fantasy points.

Weeks 4 and 17 were games in which Davante Adams played but Jamaal Williams did not. In those two games, Jones averaged 14 carries, 60.5 rushing yards, and had 1 total score. He also averaged 4 catches and 40 receiving yards. It’s worth noting that Jamaal Williams, while not forcing a true time split, siphoned off 46 targets and 37 receptions along with over 100 carries, 460 rushing yards, and 6 total touchdowns. Those aren’t huge totals, but they have the effect of limiting Jones’ upside, and as can be seen in the totals with Williams and Adams on the field, it makes a big difference.

Instead, the real effect on Jones seemed to be the presence of Davante Adams. Look at his per-game averages.

In the four games Adams missed, Jones put together 271 rushing yards, 27 targets, 22 receptions, 280 receiving yards, and 7 total touchdowns. That was a blistering pace of 26.0 PPR points per game and it represented 37% of his yearly total of 314.8 fantasy points.

Additionally, in the 12 games Adams played, Jones topped 37 receiving yards only twice and hauled in more than two receptions just three times. Again, regardless of the small sample size, the effect Adams seems to have on Jones’ receiving numbers appears to be massive. And if you assume Jones' touchdown rate normalizes and A.J. Dillon is a bigger threat for touches than Williams, Jones needs to remain a top-tier receiver to justify his current ADP.

Talent versus Situation

There is no denying that Jones has the talent to be a successful, three-down back in the NFL; he did it last year. The problem is, the surrounding circumstances aren’t lining up very well for a repeat of last year’s success.

As mentioned, Jones scored 19 touchdowns on less than 300 touches. His 6.7% touchdown rate last year compares to a 5% rate in his first two seasons. He was also one of the only running backs to average more than a touchdown per game in the last five years. He also benefited from a three-touchdown game against the Panthers, who had a historically bad run defense last year. Carolina gave up 1.7 scores per game, while the second-worst run defense (Washington) gave up 1.1 scores per game. That difference of 0.6 touchdowns allowed was as wide as the gap between 2nd and 24th in the league. Jones also carved up Washington (the second-worst defense) for almost 200 yards of total offense. Those two games represented 29% of his total fantasy points in the 12 games he played with Adams on the field.

There are two other risk factors to consider, a subpar receiving corps and a new threat for carries.

1) One-Dimensional Offense -- The Packers went into the draft needing wide receivers and came out of it with three offensive linemen, a blocking tight end, and another running back.

2) A New Potential Bellcow -- A.J. Dillon is a big powerful back that fits exactly what head coach Matt LaFleur wants to do – run the football. Prior to the 2019 season, LaFleur made no secret of the fact that he wants more than one running back to touch the ball. He gave Williams plenty of touches, and now with a back like Dillon in the fold this further takes on the look of a backfield morass.

Jones also has the added problem that he isn’t viewed as a workhorse back. Although he touched the ball 285 times last year, it was notable that he logged a full 16 games in 2019. Prior to last season, he had played just three full seasons of football over the last seven years dating back to his time at the University of Texas-El Paso. It’s likely that both coaching staffs -- past and present -- have recognized Jones is best suited for a committee role. The Packers' selection of Dillon underlines this point.

STATS AND PROJECTIONS

Final Thoughts

It looks like the stars lined up just right for Jones in 2019. He scored at an unsustainable rate. He stayed healthy all year. And most importantly, he thrashed two bottom-of-the-barrel run defenses and got a nice stretch without Davante Adams on the field to pile up points. This year he has to contend with further division of touches, and with the likelihood of statistical regression. Without receiving production to count on Jones looks like one of the more risky picks at the top of the draft.

Other Viewpoints

Lineups Jason Guilbault sees Jones as an RB1 again, but concurs he could disappoint if his role in the passing game regresses:

Aaron Jones projects as a top 10 back again, but could certainly finish in the 12-15 range depending on how scoring shakes up. Overall he projects for double-digit touchdowns and that is what will have to carry him on some weeks. If PPR numbers go down due to the Packers not using their backs as much and with no increase in workload otherwise, Jones is a major regression candidate, but going from RB3 to an RB9 or RB10 mark still is something to note.

Yahoo! Dalton Del Don expects meaningful regression:

Put differently, Jones ranked No. 18 in Opportunity Share (the percentage of total team running back carries plus targets) last season under ideal circumstances and without a second-round RB with elite measurables who averaged the fifth-most rushing yards in college in the last 20 years. Over the second half of last season, Jones recorded just 15 catches, and favorable game scripts are tough to count on repeating, especially with teams that just played deep into the season, are due for natural regression and now have a first-place schedule (think the team version of “The Madden Curse”). It’s becoming clearer Matt LaFleur is a shaky coach (although credit is due for now possessing an ARod + JLo quarterbacks room), and we won’t even get into if an unhappy and near 37-year-old Aaron Rodgers goes down.

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