7-11 Drafting: Focusing on the Middle Rounds

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Today is the day - Draft Day. You've prepped all offseason - you know who you are picking in the first round. It doesn't matter what draft spot you get tonight, because you are tuned in and you have read everything on Footballguys.com about Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, David Johnson, and Alvin Kamara. You have your stud running backs ranked from 1 to 12 along with some wide receiver studs and Travis Kelce and you are set to go once the draft order is announced. Bring on the draft!

Pssst. Did you remember that you have 17-19 more rounds to go?

Wow, did you forget about the rest of the draft? Are you too focused on which stud running back to take first that you haven't had a chance to run a mock draft and see who to take next?

Well, maybe this is not a good description of you. You have already run 20-30 mock drafts and you know who goes in which round this year. You know your ADPs better than your ABCs. You have a list of 40-50 guys to target and two dozen different sleepers that are begging to be picked for your team. But wait - is that too many? How am I going to get all that talent on my roster?

OK - don't panic. I got you covered. It is called 7-11 Drafting.

I know what you are thinking. Jeff, seriously, I love your articles and all, but I think you might be a little frazzled with all those articles you have been pulling together. What does a Slurpee have to do with my fantasy draft plan? Allow me to explain.

What I am proposing to you is to plan out your draft strategy a little backward. Not quite Matt Waldman’s Upside Down Draft plan, but I am asking you to look at Rounds 7-11 with some fresh eyes and decide who you want to take in those rounds. By knowing your plans for the middle of the draft – the point at which many fantasy owners’ eyes start to roll back in their heads, ask for a break in the draft, or head for the bathroom, beer fridge or both – you will be far ahead of the competition. Trust me here, and let’s get started.

ROUNDS 7-11

The first thing to do is to take a look at the current ADP data for Rounds 7-11. I used the 2020 PPR Data from Footballguys, but the same strategy will work with standard, non-PPR data. My assumption here is a standard PPR league, where you start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K and a defense (also known as a "1-2-3-1-1-1" league).

Looking over the players that are likely to be picked in Rounds 7-11 (Picks 73 through 132), we can start to formulate a strategy. With 60 players to select from (and possibly a few more, if we look into Round 12 or at a few players who might fall), we have the ability to decide what positions to address in these rounds. That information will guide the decision-making process for Rounds 1-6 and help build the best team possible. It will also allow us to confirm or question the overall strategy for how to set up the best overall team through 11 rounds.

Normally, in a 1-2-3-1-1-1 league, it is very typical to address all skill position starters plus (roughly) one backup at each position after 11 rounds. That means we want to first think about having two quarterbacks, three running backs, four wideouts, and two tight ends by the end of Round 11. That is not always the case for every league, but it is a reasonable starting point for my planning process. The next step is to look over the players desired to select to that point – or to consciously decide to deviate from that basic strategy. Either way, we will have more information and a better plan before the first pick of your draft.

Let’s start the process, position by position.

QUARTERBACKS

Taking a look at the players that will be available in Rounds 7-11, Picks 73-132, it is apparent that these are the rounds where most of the quarterbacks are going to be drafted. Table 1 shows a shortlist of the quarterbacks under consideration, including 1-2 options that might slip past Round 6.

Table 1 - Quarterbacks for Rounds 7-11+

Anywhere from 10-14 quarterbacks are going to go off the board in these rounds, representing QB6 through QB19, which leads to three options:

1. Execute on the Perfect Draft approach as defined in prior years. Here is the link to the 2019 version, along with the 2020 FPC Best Ball Perfect Draft articles. (Note - the 2020 Perfect Draft article from David Dodds will come out as we get closer to Week 1). The typical Perfect Draft plan is to wait until 10-11 quarterbacks are gone and take the best options left on the board at massive value. After the starting quarterback is on the roster, secure a solid QB2 in Round 10 or 11 to round our your backup option for quarterback for depth.
2. Wait even further and do a QBBC approach, but that means you will be likely committing two picks in Rounds 7-11 to ensure you get two quarterbacks in the Top 20.
3. Go after a stud quarterback this year (QB1-5), but that requires locking one up in Rounds 1-6.

All three strategies are valid, and it depends on your own outlook on how to build your fantasy squad. My own opinion favors going with either Option 1 or 2 this season with so many quarterbacks representing huge value, but I cannot fault anyone taking one of the five top names in the third option if they slip down the draft board.

RUNNING BACKS

Taking a look at the players that will be available in Rounds 7-11, Picks 73-132, a good number of running backs are also going to fly off the board in these rounds. Table 2 shows a shortlist of the running backs under consideration, including 1-2 options that might slip past Round 6.

Table 2 - Running Backs for Rounds 7-11

Anywhere from 16-18 running backs are going to go off the board in these rounds, representing RB32 through RB48, which leads to these four points to keep in mind in the middle of a draft:

1. It is critical to get as many feature tailbacks as possible in Rounds 1-6. The Top 20 backs are not going to last, and the Top 18-20 will go quickly.
2. If there is a want to secure a top-notch handcuff (like a Alexander Mattison or Latavius Murray), then these are the picks (Rounds 7-11) to lock them up.
3. If you are lucky, a solid "Running back by committee" can be built here - but odds are that is a Rounds 5 and 6 plan.
4. The running backs past around Pick 108 (somewhere close to the end of Round 9) are flex options at best, barring injury.

All four observations are valid, and now you have information here to decide what you want to accomplish in Rounds 1-6. Odds are that you will go heavily after two, possibly three running backs with your first six selections.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Taking a look at the players that will be available in Rounds 7-11, Picks 73-132, a good number of wide receivers are also going to fly off the board in these rounds. Table 3 shows a shortlist of the receivers under consideration, including 1-2 options that might slip past Round 6.

Table 3 - Wide Receivers for Rounds 7-11

Approximately 20 wide receivers are going to go off the board in these rounds, representing WR30 through WR49, which leads to these three points to keep in mind in the middle of a draft:

1. It is critical to get as many top-notch wide receivers as possible in Rounds 1-6 unless you love the WR30-49 group. The top pass catchers are not going to last, and the Top 20-25 will go quickly.
2. If you want to have a committee approach for your third starting wide receiver, this is the area of the draft (Rounds 7-11) to do it.
3. The wide receivers after about WR45-WR50 are not as sketchy as they usually are, with some strong values available. Getting some value players in Rounds 9-11 and loading up on some depth here is a solid option if the other skill positions on your roster (and having at least three running backs) look strong.

All three observations are valid, and now you have information here to decide what you want to accomplish in Rounds 1-6. Odds are that you will go heavily after two, possibly three wide receivers with your first six selections and still load up on your WR4, WR5 and possibly even WR6 in Rounds 7-11.

TIGHT ENDS

Taking a look at the players that will be available in Rounds 7-11, Picks 73-132, I see that six tight ends are going to go off the board in most drafts. These players represent TE8 through TE12, which tells me I have four points to keep in mind:

Taking a look at the players that will be available in Rounds 7-11, Picks 73-132, only a handful of tight ends are going to be drafted in the middle rounds. Typically only 4-6 ting ends are selected in Rounds 7-11, representing TE7-TE12. Table 4 shows a shortlist of the names likely to be drafted by the end of Round 11 at tight end, including 1-2 options that might slip past Round 6.

Table 4 - Tight Ends for Rounds 7-11

Not too many tight ends are drafted in the middle of most drafts, but the tight ends selected by Round 11 usually represent the end of the TE1 pool (TE12) with a few additional options. This leads to these key points to keep in mind as Rounds 7-11 approach in your draft:

1. If you want a Top 2 tight end (Travis Kelce or George Kittle), you better plan on using a pick on one of those options in the first three rounds.
2. TE7 to TE12 are rather similar in value and represent similar tiers, but there is one name that is moving up the value and draft boards quickly - TJ Hockenson of the Lions. As Jason Wood pointed out earlier this year, he could be that second year tight end sleeper that pushes for a Top 5-7 fantasy season. Grabbhing Hockenson in the range of Rounds 9-11 could represent one of the best values in the entire draft.
3. If you have your heart set on having two strong tight ends for roster/flex/backup flexibility, in prior years it was required to plan on snagging your second tight end by the end of Round 11. That is NOT the case for 2020, as there is solid depth for TE2 options after Round 11. Our tight end value plays and sleepers list highlight several options.

All these observations are valid, and now you have information here to decide what you want to accomplish in Rounds 1-6. Odds are that you may try and get a Top 4 tight end, but if that plan does not work then Rounds 7-11 is the area of the draft you will pick up your starter. Even if you have to "settle" for a tight end by committee approach, there are several strong options after Round 10 that could combine for starting tight end production. ONe of the best options could be to target Detroit's Hockenson, who will definitely be a hot pick in these rounds.

SUMMARY

There are clearly several options and directions to go, but if you are planning a "bottoms up" draft approach, the value in these rounds is predominantly at quarterback and wide receiver, with one exception at tight end (T.J. Hockenson). The ppol of running backs in this area of the draft represent lots of questions for starting roles or usage in their respective backfields, so that puts emphasis on the position in the first six rounds. Knowing that wide receiver and quarterback values await you in this part of the draft and having several plans for these middle rounds should provide comfort knowing that you can adapt to however Draft Day goes. The result of this preparation will give you a strong draft plan for your starting lineup and a few key depth spots on your roster by the end of Rounds 11 and 12. This type of planning can really make draft day both more enjoyable and more successful.

So there you have it – Convenience Store Drafting at its finest. Good luck with your fantasy draft this season, and don’t get brain freeze if you go Slurpee-style with your 7-11 Draft Plan.

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

Follow @JeffPasquino

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