You don’t need us to tell you Patrick Mahomes II and Lamar Jackson are this year's top two quarterbacks. We might not agree on which one is first, but we almost all agree they're in an elite tier by themselves. Even if we made a case for another quarterback, you probably wouldn’t listen to us.
In a similar vein, it's possible Sam Darnold or Derek Carr or Gardner Minshew emerge as top-12 options, but almost no one is going to draft them that way. Whether we see them as QB25 or QB28 or QB30 isn’t relevant to you on draft day. They'll all be very late picks as someone's QB2 or waiver wire fodder.
But what about those quarterbacks who will be drafted in most leagues, but there isn't a consensus view? At Footballguys, unlike many sites, we allow all of our staff to share their rankings. In fact, we encourage it. But the reality is most subscribers focus on the consensus of all of our disparate viewpoints. With someone like Mahomes, where 15 of 15 rankers have him No. 1 or No. 2, our individual opinions don’t matter much. But what about the players you’re targeting who we see quite differently?
Those are the picks that can make or break your draft. When you’re on the clock, and someone we have ranked at No. 7 is on the board, do you reach for him a round earlier than ADP, or do you lean toward letting him fall?
With the draft season underway, here are the highest-variance quarterback debates and how you should handle them.
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 8.7
- Average Draft Position: 7th
| Rank | Name | Avg | Median | St Dev | Min Rank | Max Rank | Difference bw Min Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tom Brady | 8.7 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 4 | 16 | 12 |
The Details: On average, 15 staff members ranked Brady 8.7, although that slots as QB7 by virtue of being the 7th-highest average ranking. The median ranking is 8, but only two staff have him there. One brave ranker sees Brady returning to the top-5 (QB4) for the first time since 2017, while a naysayer thinks Brady is no better than a league-average starter (QB16). There's a hefty 3.1 standard deviation, with 12 ranking slots separating the highest and lowest staff. The dispersion is something to behold, as Brady holds at least one spot at QB4, QB5, QB6, QB7, QB8, QB9, QB10, QB11, QB13, and QB16. Nine of fifteen staff rank Brady lower than his ADP, while only three rank him higher.
The Upside Case by Joe Bryant: This one isn't a surprise but the guy I'm planting my flag with this year is Tom Brady. It's the classic "Was it the system or the athlete?" question. Or the bigger, "Teacher or the pupil?" drama. And it's fascinating. I suspect the answer there is the same as it usually is: It's both. Belichick is great. Brady is great. The reason I'm all in on Brady with this though is the dramatic upgrade in surrounding talent. He's going from a situation where Julian Edelman was far and away the best receiver to a team where Rob Gronkowski is arguably the fourth-best receiver. Bruce Arians may not be Bill Belichick. But he's entirely capable. Byron Leftwich as OC and Todd Bowles running the defense is exciting. This is a really good team and staff. The announced death of Brady's arm is way premature. He's never had freakish arm talent. He's simply just a great quarterback. The big worry will be adapting to a new team. That's a worry any year, but especially in 2020. A familiar Rob Gronkowski will help there. Brady's always played the game with a mental over physical aspect and that should serve him well here as he acclimates. Last but not least, it'll be incredibly fun. It's an age-old story and I'm here for it.
The Downside Case by Ryan Hester: There's no need to draft a mid-tier pass-only quarterback in fantasy football. Want a better shot at top-three production? Draft a quarterback earlier. Better yet, draft a couple of quarterbacks later that have a combination of decent weapons and rushing ability. Players like Patrick Mahomes II II (two seasons ago), Lamar Jackson (last year), Russell Wilson and Cam Newton early in their careers, and even Robert Griffin III III as a rookie are examples of later-round quarterbacks with passing limitations that ended up winning people their fantasy leagues. Brady isn't getting his fantasy GMs elite quarterback production. Don't play it safe. Aim higher.
Conclusion: You Can Do Better
It won't surprise any of us if Brady finds his new surroundings, system, and the best collection of skill players he's had since Randy Moss and company, and thrives. Very few of us think he'll be a bust. But there are two definitive QB1 tiers this year. There is the Mahomes/Jackson duo at the top, and they justify early draft picks in most formats. Then there's a consensus 3rd through 6th of Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson, and Russell Wilson. There's not a lot of agreement on which of those four should be No. 3, but almost everyone agrees they're the next tier and will be off the board before anyone else at the position. Do you really want to be the person who takes the 7th quarterback? That's fantasy no man's land, particularly given the unprecedented depth at the position.
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles
- Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 10.5
- Average Draft Position: 12th
| Rank | Name | Avg | Median | St Dev | Min Rank | Max Rank | Difference bw Min Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Carson Wentz | 10.5 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 7 | 23 | 16 |
The Details: On average, our staff ranks Wentz 10.5, as QB10. It's also the median ranking among 15 rankers. Our average ranking is a full 1.5 position spots higher than his current ADP (QB12), although there's extreme volatility in how our staff sees the Eagles quarterback. Three staff rank him QB7 -- aka, the next best thing after the consensus Top 6 are taken. Four more rankers have him QB8. Twelve of fifteen staff rank Wentz in the Top 12 and ten of those have him 10th or higher. Only three staff project Wentz to finish below his current ADP. He's one of the most volatile signal-callers with a 4.2 standard deviation.
The Upside Case by James Brimacombe: The Eagles passing offense was completely banged up during the second half of last season as Wentz really only had his two tight ends to rely on getting the ball to. Even with all the injuries to the wide receiver position, Wentz still found a way to lead the Eagles to the NFC East title and finish as the QB8 last season with over 600 passing attempts for 4,039 yards and 27 passing touchdowns. Heading into the 2020 season, the Eagles have been trying to build up the receiving talent for Wentz, adding Jalen Reagor, John Hightower, Quez Watkins in the draft. Add in Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson coming back from injury along with J.J. Arcega-Whiteside with a potential rebound season. Don't forget about the emergence of Miles Sanders who caught 50 passes for 509 yards and 3 touchdowns and the best duo of tight ends in the league in Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. Wentz has all the weapons heading into the year and has a great shot at finishing as a top-five quarterback this season.
The Downside Case by Matt Waldman: If I believe Wentz would stay healthy for consecutive seasons, I would rank him between Matt Stafford and Matt Ryan as the No. 11 passer. I can't make that projection in good faith based on Wentz's track record for placing himself in harm's way in the pocket. He lacks a true feel for how to protect himself when it comes to his stance and falling to the ground. He's a good quarterback with an excellent scheme fit and surrounding talent, but he's below average at managing his risks on the field.
Conclusion: Fly Eagles Fly, and Buy Wentz Buy
Wentz may have his doubters, but Matt's QB23 ranking adds a layer of volatility that belies a fairly bullish consensus otherwise. As we already noted, 12 of 15 staff rank Went in the Top 12, and ten of us have him QB10 or higher. At his ADP (QB12), he's a value pick if he stays healthy. With the recent injuries to the offensive line (Brandon Brooks and Andre Dillard), it may be wise not to reach aggressively for him, even though our rankings say you could be aggressive. If he's there at ADP, and you haven't drafted a quarterback yet, he's worth it.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
- Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 11.0
- Average Draft Position: 10th
| Rank | Name | Avg | Median | St Dev | Min Rank | Max Rank | Difference bw Min Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Josh Allen | 11.0 | 11.0 | 2.8 | 7 | 16 | 9 |
The Details: Our fifteen rankers view Allen, on average, as QB11, which is also the median ranking. That's one spot below his QB10 average draft position. Allen is slightly less divisive than Wentz or Brady, as only nine spots separate the highest ranking (QB7) and lowest (QB16). Four staff rank Allen higher than his ADP, and eight rank him lower.
The Upside Case by Jeff Haseley: Can Josh Allen make another jump this season, or was the Top 10 his high point? Stefon Diggs is a great addition to his arsenal, but if Allen is going to take another leap forward, it will have to be a result of his arm. If he becomes more of a passer, and still runs at will, he can easily crack the top 10 or better in 2020.
The Downside Case by Devin Knotts: If you are taking Josh Allen at his current ADP you're going to be relying on him to likely be a starter for most weeks on your team. While the overall output last season was fine as he finished 10th overall, the week-to-week consistency is the problem for Allen. Propped up by nine rushing touchdowns last year, Allen finished as a top-12 quarterback just six times in 2019. While Stefon Diggs should help, Allen's problems are accuracy as he has a career 56.3% completion percentage and with Devin Singletary expected to play a more active role in this offense, it could hurt Allen's upside in 2020.
Conclusion: Let Someone Else Bet on Improved Accuracy
Josh Allen was the most common pick among our staff for in a recent Overvalued Quarterbacks feature, with good reason. His accuracy doesn't work in today's NFL without 8+ rushing touchdowns to offset the passing deficiency. While his supporting cast is improved, camp reports don't sound too convincing, and Allen has expressed an intent to run less to protect himself. Only four of fifteen staff members see Allen as a value at ADP, so unless he falls a few rounds later than expected, let someone else worry about his inconsistent throwing mechanics.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
- Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 16.5
- Average Draft Position: 14th
| Rank | Name | Avg | Median | St Dev | Min Rank | Max Rank | Difference bw Min Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Daniel Jones | 16.5 | 16.0 | 3.2 | 11 | 23 | 12 |
The Details: Jones is ranked, on average, 16.5 by 15 staff members. He's got a wide range of projected outcomes, with 12 ranking spots separating his best (QB11) ranking from his worst (QB23). His median ranking of QB16 is two spots lower than his current ADP of QB14. Only three staff members rank Jones at or higher than his ADP, while twelve rank him lower. With a standard deviation of 3.2, he's among the most volatile of the consensus backup fantasy options.
The Upside Case by Ryan Hester: When drafting quarterbacks, upside is everything. The position is so deep in one-quarterback fantasy leagues that swinging for the fences and missing isn’t penal. Waiver wire selection can keep a fantasy team afloat for a whole fantasy season and even provide high-end production is any given week. Fantasy GMs should target quarterbacks with top-three upside at the position. And Jones has that. After being named New York’s starter in Week 3, only Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, and Jameis Winston had more top-five weekly finishes than the four that Jones had. That’s even more impressive, considering Jones missed time near the end of the year.
The Downside Case by Drew Davenport: Jones certainly throws up some monster fantasy performances from time to time. But in between those big games, he is a lineup killer. In 6 of his 12 games, he equaled or exceeded his touchdown total with turnovers while also failing to top 240 yards passing. His points per game weren't very enticing as a result, falling into the middle QB2 range despite the big game outbursts. With a full complement of pass-catchers, Jones could be an exciting prospect, but there is a reason his top guys weren't on the field together last year - several of them are injury-prone. The last problem with Jones is his first month of the season. Should an owner select Jones they'll have to deal with an opening slate of: Pittsburgh, Chicago, San Francisco, and the Los Angeles Rams. He is virtually unstartable until October. That means his ADP is currently too high.
Conclusion: Look Elsewhere for your QB2
Ryan Hester's thoughtful take aside, the majority of Footballguys see Jones as overvalued at his QB14 ADP. Twelve rankers think he'll finish below his ADP, with nine seeing him as no better than a league-average starter. There's certainly a path to success, particularly if he can cut down on the turnovers, but there are more enticing options if you're building a late-round quarterback tandem or in a deeper league seeking a QB2.
Cam Newton, New England Patriots
- Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 18.3
- Average Draft Position: 15th
| Rank | Name | Avg | Median | St Dev | Min Rank | Max Rank | Difference bw Min Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Cam Newton | 18.3 | 18.0 | 4.9 | 10 | 26 | 16 |
The Details: Newton is the second-most volatile quarterback ranking among our staff, with a whopping 4.9 standard deviation. One hopeful ranker thinks he'll finish QB10, while two of our doubters see him all the way down at QB26. His ADP is QB15, which makes Newton the most expensive quarterback on the board versus our consensus ranking of 18.3 (median of 18); no other quarterback is a full three ranking spots higher in ADP. Three staff members rank Newton at or higher than ADP, while twelve are lower.
The Upside Case by Jeff Haseley: Newton has a skill set unlike any other in the league. His style of play led to injuries that disallowed him to play the way he wants to play. Now that he has had time to recover from foot and shoulder injuries, I believe we'll see the same intensity and drive he showed in the past. Newton thrives on proving doubters, teams, and media, wrong. He'll have every opportunity to earn the starting role in New England, and there is a chance he returns to the level of greatness that he showed prior to his downfall from injury.
The Downside Case by Justin Howe: Newton keeps coming off draft boards at his ceiling, which is never a good proposition. He's not guaranteed the starting job, and even his best-case scenario isn't very enticing. The Patriots sorely lack talent and upside at receiver, and this has the look of a bottom-tier offense. More than ever, fantasy players will be deeply dependent upon Newton's legs and praying weekly for short touchdowns. That's not the worst thing in the world - Newton did finish Top 10 just two years ago. But it's a big ask of a QB1, especially with such a wide pool of quarterback options on the table.
Conclusion: Hard Pass, Live In The Now
It would be an amazing story. Former MVP besieged by injuries lands in New England on a one-year deal, re-ignites his love for the game, and makes New England forget about Tom Brady. As much as we would all love to see that story unfold, our job is to build great teams based on what's likely to happen, not fairy tales. Is it impossible for Newton to have a top-10 season? Absolutely not. Is it likely? Absolutely not. Twelve of fifteen rankers have him below his ADP, including five who rank him 20th or lower. There was a small window after Newton signed when he was draftable as a bottom-5 starter because of the uncertainty surrounding the quarterback competition, but with Jarrett Stidham struggling, Newton's ADP has risen to the point of assuming he'll be the 16-game starter. Hard pass.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
- Consensus Ranking (8/29/2020): 20.0
- Average Draft Position: 18th
| Rank | Name | Avg | Median | St Dev | Min Rank | Max Rank | Difference bw Min Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Joe Burrow | 20.0 | 19.0 | 5.3 | 9 | 28 | 19 |
The Details: 2nd-overall pick Joe Burrow is the most volatile quarterback in our rankings, with a jaw-dropping standard deviation of 5.3 among fifteen staff rankers. One brave soul ranks Burrow QB9, which would make him one of the best values of the year. On the other side of the spectrum, two staffers rank him 28th -- among the very worst starters in the NFL. The truth likely lies somewhere in between, which is why the average ranking is 20.0, with a median ranking of 19. His average draft position is QB19, in-line with the staff's median but one slot higher than the average ranking. Seven of fifteen staff rank him at or higher than ADP, while eight see him lower.
The Upside Case by Chris Allen: We think of quarterbacks as an extension of the head coach/offensive coordinator while they're on the field. In 2019, the Bengals started their first game under Zac Taylor with 51 pass attempts from Andy Dalton while on the road in Seattle. They still lost, but their 78.5% neutral passing laid out the blueprint for Cincinnati under Taylor. They just needed a better player to execute the scheme. Burrow and Taylor should mesh like Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray have. Taylor's implemented concepts that had the team passing at a 63.8% rate in neutral situations. Burrow demonstrated his ability to create in and out of structure which will serve him well behind their offensive line. He also has some rushing upside with 115 attempts his final season at LSU. Plus, he'll have multiple prominent pass catchers to help him acclimate to the NFL. If you're employing a late-round quarterback strategy in 2020, Burrow should be one of your targets.
The Downside Case by Matt Waldman: Burrow has excellent pocket presence and maneuverability. If you remember Rich Gannon, the former MVP who took Oakland to the Super Bowl, Burrow has that style of play and the potential to be as productive as he grows into the NFL game. His arm talent is below average for a franchise starter and if he's able to up the RPMs with stick throws, he'll have a complete game. If not the Bengals will have to scheme around him a bit. Not a big deal, but instant success from Burrow might be a little much to ask.
Conclusion: Fairly Valued
Ironically, the most divisive quarterback of the year averages out to be reasonably priced, but that's the way the situation unfolds. The naysayers are probably too Draconian in their fears, while the optimists are expecting a lot from a rookie who isn't going to rack up a ton of rushing yards. Head coach Zac Taylor remains an unknown as a play-caller, is he a difference-maker in need of a quarterback? Can what Burrow did in college translate to the NFL game? It did for Pat Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, who didn't play in particularly conventional pro-style systems. Drafting Burrow as a high-upside QB2 makes sense, just don't succumb to the hype and think you can safely wait until the later rounds and draft Burrow as your every-week starter.
