Photo: Imagn Images

We’re into the final week of the fantasy season. Championships are on the line and it’s almost fitting for the 2020 season for us to be sweating the games on Christmas Day. Regardless, this is my last column for the season. I’m incredibly thankful to join the FBG community and work with such a tight-knit crew. Special thanks to Joe Bryant and Sigmund Bloom for bringing me aboard. Another shout out to Clayton Gray for keeping the content on schedule. My transition over to the team was seamless. It’s been a learning experience for me putting this together and I hope you all have found some value in it as well. Let’s dig into the lessons learned from Week 15.

Quarterback: Russell Wilson, Seahawks

Week 15 Results: 23.2 (Projected), 15.0 (Actual)

The Seahawks are likely bound for the playoffs, but not in the way we had hoped. We’ve struggled to find fantasy value in what was once a bountiful passing game. Tyler Lockett hasn’t scored since Week 11. D.K. Metcalf has been held under 100 yards in three consecutive games. In the midst of it all, Russell Wilson has continued to try and make something out of nothing. The constant scampering around the pocket has still there, but the result (typically a deep touchdown pass only he could throw) hasn’t. With another down performance in the fantasy playoffs, I looked a bit closer at Seattle’s offense and if we can trust Wilson to deliver us a fantasy championship.

Advice Moving Forward:

Fantasy managers should at least consider other options over Wilson in Week 16. We’ve seen this before from Wilson. He averaged just 14.5 PPG throughout the fantasy playoffs last year and on a similar trend in 2020 (16.4 PPG). To explain the drop, there are a couple of macro and micro trends to consider.

The ‘Let Russ Cook’ philosophy has been reduced to a low simmer. Admittedly, it’s a two-game sample but it coincides with Seattle having all of their primary running backs (Carson, Hyde, and Penny) active for the first time this season. All three were worked into the rotation despite Washington being third in rush EPA allowed (-0.25) since Week 12. To be fair, it’s possible the shift was to take the pressure off of Wilson (literally). Opposing defenses had generated pressure on 25.0% of his attempts in six consecutive games. The lack of plays within structure has partially fueled his interceptions and drop in efficiency (24th in EPA per Play). However, even the in-structure plays have become less effective.

Seattle’s passing offense is predicated on misdirection and use crossing route combinations to gain separation. An example would be Tyler Lockett running a drag underneath across the interior while D.K. Metcalf cuts past the safety on a post route. If the primary reads aren’t there, the ancillary players (e.g. David Moore) get lost in the shuffle and wind up making big plays. It worked beautifully to start off the season. Wilson had 14 touchdowns through the first nine weeks of the season using this blueprint. However, teams have caught on to the approach. Seattle has used crossing routes at a decreased rate as a result, but their counter-punch has been lacking. Wilson has had just one game over 250 yards in the last month and has an interception in three consecutive games. With another matchup against the Rams in Week 16 (scored 9.9 points in their last meeting), fantasy managers should strongly consider a waiver-wire option instead of blindly adhering to the ‘start your studs’ mantra.

Running Back: J.K. Dobbins, Ravens

Week 15 Results: 13.2 (Projected), 15.1 (Actual)

Dobbins entered the season like most of the rookie running backs from the 2020 class. He flashed early in the season, but the depth chart obscured his value. However, as the season closes, we get to see why the Ravens drafted the star from Ohio State. He’s still dueling with Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards for time, but Dobbins has produced as a Top-24 running back in three consecutive weeks. The uptick in production and the fantasy implications were worth a closer look. To help, I looked into his workload and what we can reasonably expect for our fantasy championship week.

Advice Moving Forward:

Dobbins should be considered as a solid RB2 to close out the fantasy season. The last few weeks have been the most productive, but his workload had been on an upward trend for some time.

Dobbins was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list prior to their Week 12 matchup against Pittsburgh. His absence likely explains his reduced workload in Week 13 since he immediately resumed his normal workload the following week. Regardless, the additional work was beneficial to the rookie. Dobbin’s success rate (percentage of runs that added to Baltimore’s win probability) saw an immediate increase which correlated to his production on the ground. He hadn’t had an explosive run since his 113-yard performance against the Steelers but has had gains of 30, 13, and 11 yards over his last three games. But the critical part is his usage while the team is in the red zone.

The fantasy value of any Baltimore running back will be capped by Lamar Jackson. However, Dobbins has been the most productive running back from inside the 20-yard line over the last few weeks. He has the most attempts (12) and touchdowns (3) by any Ravens’ rusher, including Jackson, since returning to the active roster. He now has double-digit attempts in four consecutive games and a touchdown in three straight weeks. His workload and usage in high-value situations make him a reliable fantasy asset to make a push for a fantasy championship.

Wide Receiver: Cooper Kupp, Rams

Week 15 Results: 14.6 (Projected), 8.9 (Actual)

The Rams against the Jets was the matchup we all wanted. New York jumping out to a 13-point lead was even better since the Rams would need to pass in order to retake the lead. Either way, the matchup was tilted in Cooper Kupp’s favor. He had under-produced in previous weeks and was set up to reassert himself in the WR1 ranks. He scored just 8.9 points. With yet another disappointing performance, I took a closer look at Kupp and the Rams’ offense to see if we can trust him for Week 16.

Advice Moving Forward:

Kupp falls into low-end WR2 territory as his usage dips and the Rams’ offense reshapes itself. We knew going into the season that Robert Woods was the primary target. However, we assumed the Rams’ passing attack had enough volume to sustain them both. That proved true for most of the season, but it’s changed as of late.

Los Angeles relied on 12-personnel against the Rams and Patriots to bolster their offensive line. It enabled Cam Akers to breakout, but Kupp was adversely affected. Robert Woods served as the lone receiver while Kupp stayed on the sideline. As a result, his target share was reduced while both Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee became the outlets for Goff in passing situations. In addition, Kupp had less opportunity to score.

The resurgence of Los Angeles’ running game was great for the Rams as a team. It took the pressure off of Goff and the offensive line. They won back-to-back games against the Patriots and Cardinals with their ground attack. Plus, they were able to maintain their scoring output as a team (27.3 PPG) despite the shift in their offensive game plan. Regardless, we needed those scores. Or, at least, the opportunity for those scores. Goff didn’t even attempt a pass from within the 20-yard line in Week 12. He had just three in Weeks 13 and 14. The combination of a run-heavy approach and reduced snaps drastically reduced Kupp’s output. If not for a two-yard touchdown scored against the Patriots, he’d have three outings under 10 points instead of two. Regardless, the drop in production has been noticeable.

Kupp had a 24.7% target share heading into Week 12. He led the team in targets from within the 20-yard line. He had just two games with a single-digit score in PPR formats. Over the last four weeks, he’s ranked the WR67, WR29, WR25, and WR52. Even in a comeback attempt against the Jets, Kupp still had just 5 targets. The Rams’ offense is clearly in flux and Kupp would be tough to trust heading into Week 16.