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Week 12 will be one of the first NFL weeks to last six days. With games starting on Thanksgiving and the final game ending on Wednesday afternoon, the fantasy community has been on constant alert for roster moves or game postponements. Regardless, we’ve got games to review and plans to make with the final game of the fantasy regular season up next. The Baltimore-Pittsburgh delay gives us an extra day to digest all of the action and I’ve found a few performances that warranted a deeper evaluation as we head into Week 13.

Quarterback: Cam Newton, Patriots

Week 11 Results: 21.3 (Projected), 4.0 (Actual)

The latest headlines coming out of Boston haven’t been encouraging. Cam Newton apologizing to Josh McDaniels after their ugly win over Arizona. Bill Belichick quickly defending Newton to the media when asked about potentially making a change at quarterback. Newton had his second-worst outing this year after failing to reach 100 passing yards for the second time. Without much rushing production, Newton has been outside of the QB1 conversation for the last two weeks with tough matchups ahead. Given his decline, I dug into Cam’s recent games and see if we can trust him as our starter for the remainder of the season.

Advice Moving Forward:

Newton falls into the QB2/streaming category with a tough schedule and obvious issues as a passer. The Cardinals’ defense emphasized a point that had been apparent throughout most of the season: Cam Newton breaks down under pressure. All three of his worst passing performances came when he faced a defense that had a pressure rate of more than 30.0%. However, as expected, Newton was able to save his day on the ground.

His weekly fantasy rank offset any concerns we had as a passer since Newton leads the league in both rushing attempts and touchdowns from within the 20-yard line. However, he actually needs to get to the red zone in order for him to capitalize on his skills as a rusher. In his three-game sample against elevated pressure, the Patriots were able to average 31.5 yards per drive. For comparison, Baltimore is averaged 31.7 yards per drive on the season and is ranked 26th in the league. Without pressure (and a similar sample size), New England would be comparable to the Kansas City Chiefs with 45.3 yards per drive. Newton has just one touchdown pass from outside of the red zone and it came in Week 11. The Patriots’ upcoming matchups are: Los Angeles (Chargers), Los Angeles (Rams), Miami, and Buffalo. The Chargers and Dolphins have pressure rates at 31.3% and 37.4%, respectively, and the Rams and Buffalo are both in the Top 10 for adjusted sack rate. With Newton on the decline, he’d be tough to start throughout the fantasy playoffs.

Running Back: Wayne Gallman, Giants

Week 11 Results: 12.8 (Projected), 18.1 (Actual)

The fantasy community’s focus has generally been on the Giants’ passing game since Saquon Barkley’s injury earlier in the season. Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram have been weekly considerations in either season-long or DFS formats with all eyes on Daniel Jones. However, Wayne Gallman has been the consistent fantasy asset in New York’s offense for the last month. After another RB1 finish against the Bengals in Week 12, I took a closer look at Gallman’s rise in the Giants’ backfield to see if we can trust him during the most critical portion of the season.

Advice Moving Forward:

Gallman’s touch share will project him as a mid-range RB2 moving forward, but his ceiling is capped by his upcoming opponents. The problem is that fantasy managers will find it difficult to replace what appears to be a stable workload. Gallman has turned into the Giants’ workhorse over their last month of games with increasingly positive results to match his expanded role.

Gallman has ranked within the Top 24 in PPR scoring over their last four games. In addition, he’s faced tough defensive fronts. Weeks 8 through 10 featured a mini-gauntlet of Tampa Bay (1st in rush defense DVOA), Washington (13th), and Philadelphia (11th). In Week 12 alone, Gallman’s combined percentage of team rushes (80.0%) and target share (14.0%) was rivaled by just James Robinson (100.0% rush share, 18.0% target share). We can never be too certain when it comes to the Giants, but Joe Judge did call four consecutive running plays for Gallman on their first drive against Cincinnati. The apparent trust shifted New York’s offensive tendencies towards their running game. Coming into Week 12, the Giants averaged a 59.1% neutral passing rate and a passing rate of 65.9% inside the red zone. Against the Bengals, New York’s neutral passing rate fell to 48.7% and not a single pass was thrown from within the 20-yard line. Gallman will likely project as a decent RB2 candidate moving forward, but it’s important to remember the Giants’ offense in totality. They’re 25th in offensive yards per drive, 30th in points per game, and will likely be without their starting quarterback in Week 13. With Seattle (6 sacks in Week 12), Arizona (30.9% pressure rate over their last four games), and Cleveland (10th in RB YPC allowed) on the schedule, Gallman will have a tough time meeting his projections throughout the playoffs.

Wide Receiver: Gabriel Davis, Bills

Week 11 Results: 9.4 (Projected), 16.9 (Actual)

John Brown’s injury is an obvious detriment to the Bills’ offense. As noted by Sam Hoppen from Establish the Run, Stefon Diggs’ drops to a 5.2 aDOT and his PPG drop by 5.4. We’ve also seen Josh Allen struggle as a passer with 3 of his 8 interceptions coming with Brown out of the lineup. However, his absence has allowed Gabriel Davis to see the field more. Week 12 was Davis’ best fantasy day despite having just 4 targets on the day. With John Brown ineligible to return until Week 15, I took a look at Davis’ usage and what we can expect from the rookie as we head into the playoffs.

Advice Moving Forward:

The workload may be there, but his upcoming matchups may prove difficult for the rookie making him difficult to trust. Without John Brown for at least another two weeks, we can expect Davis to continue on in the starting role opposite Stefon Diggs. Plus, given the Bills’ offensive philosophy, the targets should be plentiful for the rookie.

Davis’ total usage has seen a modest increase (27.3% rise in targets). However, his target bump while the team has been in scoring position has been the real difference in valuing his opportunity. In Week 12 alone, Davis led the receiving group in targets from within the 20-yard line which resulted in his fourth touchdown of the season. The Bills have been aggressive throughout most of the 2020 season. They’re 10th in neutral passing rate (60.6%), 15th in passing while in the red zone (54.4%). With their offense playing at the ninth-fastest pace, the total combination of passing and up-tempo play-calling has resulted in Buffalo having the sixth-most efficient offense with an average of 38.9 yards per drive. Davis’ ability to win on the outside has earned him additional targets despite playing against tough secondary units. His increased aDOT suggests limited usage, but his route chart from Week 5 (first game without Brown) highlights his ability to win from both the interior and outside. His top-24 finish in Week 12 will put him in FLEX consideration moving forward, but there is some concern. The Chargers pressured Allen on 31.3% of his attempts which limited his passing day to just 157 yards. In addition, without Brown, Davis’ slot rate was dropped from 42.0% to 18.0% as Cole Beasley’s role increased. The loss of work on the interior along with Buffalo’s upcoming schedule (San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Denver, and New England) will make things tough for their passing offense. Davis should be rostered in all leagues, but he’ll be tough to start throughout the playoffs with possible struggles for Buffalo during those matchups.