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Thanksgiving week is upon us and the fantasy playoffs are nearly here. I have no issue admitting the season hasn’t turned out as expected, but learning more about actual and fantasy football is part of the excitement. I’m thankful for Joe Bryant, Sigmund Bloom, and the rest of the staff at Football Guys for bringing me into the FBG family and giving me the opportunity to learn with you all each week. I hope each of you have a safe and happy holiday with family, food, fellowship, and football on Thursday. Now, with rosters to set, let’s dive into the lessons after Week 11 and what we can takeaway prior to the start of Week 12.

Quarterback: Baker Mayfield, Browns

Week 11 Results: 17.5 (Projected), 7.1 (Actual)

The Browns are in the Bottom 5 for both neutral passing rate and red zone passing rate through Week 11. Our offseason priors that Kevin Stefanski would bring a run-heavy, 12-personnel offensive scheme to Cleveland were quickly confirmed and that’s been the case for the majority of the season. However, even Kirk Cousins wasn’t this useless for fantasy purposes in 2019. Baker Mayfield has been the QB26, QB28, and the QB26 since Week 8 kicked off in high winds. His Week 7 result (29.8 points, QB6) was something of an outlier, but the drop-off in production has been so steep it’s rendered any of his pass-catchers also unusable on our starting rosters. I took a closer look at his recent set of games to see if there’s an underlying issue and if we can roster any of the Browns’ passing attack moving forward.

Advice Moving Forward:

Mayfield’s past few games should be discounted and is a viable streamer throughout the fantasy playoffs. The last three games played in Cleveland have featured the worst weather conditions in any three-game stretch during the 2020 season. As a result, Mayfield’s been a disappointment.

If you’ve read some of my other work, I typically preach patience when it comes to weather except in extreme conditions. Unfortunately, Cleveland has seen those extreme conditions in consecutive weeks which have enabled the Browns to lean into their run-based offense. It’s depleted Mayfield’s value along with the rest of the passing game as he’s averaged just 152.7 passing yards per game over his last three contests. Prior to Week 8, Mayfield was at least able to provide a floor at 15.0 PPG with at least one passing touchdown in every game this season. It hasn’t been enough to warrant QB1 attention, but his 6.7 PPG over the last month has likely resulted in him being out on a lot of waiver wires. But Cleveland’s upcoming schedule over the next five weeks includes Jacksonville, Tennessee, and both New York teams. All four teams are in the bottom half of the league in adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and the Titans and Jaguars are 27th and 28th, respectively. With Baltimore in Week 14 being the only tough matchup, Mayfield should be in streaming consideration going into the playoffs. If you lost Burrow or looking for other options after Tua was benched, Mayfield is at least a floor option with the matchups to give him access to a ceiling.

Running Back: Cam Akers, Rams

Week 11 Results: 4.0 (Projected), 8.9 (Actual)

Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson had been the primary fantasy contributors heading into Week 11. At no point during the season had Cam Akers held a majority touch share, he was yet to find the end zone, nor had he exceeded 7.0 PPR points. Despite all of the offseason hype, Akers' fantasy value appeared to be on hold until the 2021 season getting acclimated to the NFL. However, Week 11 brought some added confusion to the running back trio. The Rams faced the Buccaneers defense that’s first in rushing defense DVOA. We expected Los Angeles to struggle on the ground, but the rookie outshined the vets in a close matchup to close out the week. Akers getting the touchdown may have some fantasy managers excited to start Akers moving forward. However, I took a closer look at his usage in Week 11, along with his prior usage, and we may need to wait another week before thrusting Akers into our starting lineups.

Advice Moving Forward:

Akers is back in the RB3/FLEX conversation but needs a more stable workload to be reliably started. Akers had a 10.4% target share during his time at Florida State. He wasn’t the primary read, but he had a stronger profile in this area than Darrell Henderson. The expectation was that Akers would be able to carve out a role in the Rams’ short-passing game, but Malcolm Brown is the only running back to exceed a 10% target share. Akers scored the touchdown, but it’s likely his fantasy performance was a function of him being in the rotation when the Rams were in scoring position. Akers had seen a 21% and 26% snap share over the past two weeks, but it dropped to just 17% on Monday night against the Rams. In addition, his share of the running back touches also decreased. He had earned 10 touches in back-to-back weeks (32.3% and 38.5% touch share in Weeks 8 and 10, respectively). His workload dropped to just 6 (30%) in Week 11. It’s possible that the matchup dictated that the offensive game plan go away from Tampa’s strength on defense as Jared Goff attempted the second-highest number of passes against on Monday night. Akers’ ability to convert through the air in short-yardage should warrant more work in the future, but his snaps and touches need to also rise before we can reliably place him in our starting lineups.

Wide Receiver: Robby Anderson, Panthers

Week 11 Results: 13.0 (Projected), 11.6 (Actual)

The Panthers’ wide receiver trio continues to be a mess for fantasy purposes eleven weeks into the season. First, it was Curtis Samuel and his hybrid role combined with an early-season injury that had him as the odd man out. After his return, his usage on third downs and out of the backfield vaulted him back into fantasy relevance. Next, it was D.J. Moore and his increased aDOT. It wasn’t until the deep targets turned into receptions that the concern around Moore began to fade. Now, the focus is on Robby Anderson. The targets have been there, but we haven’t seen Anderson do a touchdown celebration dance since Week 1. His perceived drop in production was worth a deeper look to see if there’s any hope to be salvaged in the Panthers’ newest addition.

Advice Moving Forward:

Anderson should still be considered a WR2 moving forward with both target share and positive touchdown regression boosting his outlook. You typically want to be on the positive side of touchdown variance, but Anderson’s touchdown luck is something of an outlier. Anderson is just one of two wide receivers with over 70 targets on the season and just one touchdown. The other receiver, A.J. Green, has some excuse given the multiple options in the Bengals’ passing game. Carolina is significantly more consolidated with just Mike Davis having more than one receiving touchdown outside of the wide receivers and only Anderson and D.J. Moore have a target share greater than 20%. Anderson has maintained the majority target load (26%) within the Panthers’ offense over their last month of games. He’s also tied for second in targets from within the 20-yard line (2). However, his issues are in two areas: deep targets and touchdowns. Moore and Curtis Samuel have 243 and 119 yards, respectively, on passes of 15 air yards or more since Week 7. Anderson has just 48 yards on 3 catchable deep targets. His target share and air yards denote continued involvement in the Panthers’ offense. The simple regression analysis indicates he should find the paint given his workload. Carolina has Minnesota, Denver, Green Bay, and Washington on their schedule to close out the fantasy season. Three of those four have allowed at least one 100-yard receiving game to opposing wide receivers in the last two weeks. With positive matchups in his future, Robby Anderson should continue to be started despite the poor results.