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Week 9 highlighted the importance of letting go of our pre- and early season assumptions. With the season halfway over and the playoffs rapidly approaching, we shouldn’t let what we thought would happen cloud our judgment. D.J. Moore doesn’t have a secure role for fantasy purposes in Carolina. Jonathan Taylor is part of a committee. Our rosters have to be optimized to account for the actual range of outcomes for every player and not just those on the bench. After some surprising and disappointing performances coming out of Week 9, I took a look at some of the players we may have a hard time starting and what their range of outcomes are in the weeks ahead.

Quarterback: Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins

Week 8 Results: 18.3 (Projected), 21.4 (Actual)

The Dolphins deciding to bench Ryan Fitzpatrick after Week 7 was met with some skepticism. The transition to Tua was expected, but the timing was curious. Miami was set to face the Rams in Week 8 and the prospect of Tagovailoa facing Aaron Donald was a concern. Miami’s defense drove them to a convincing win over Los Angeles, but Tua had an uneven debut. He had less than 100 passing yards and rushed twice. The hope was that the pressure combined with a savvy secondary held him back and that assumption proved true in Week 9. After securing the Dolphins a second-place spot in the AFC East, Tua’s on a promising path to both NFL and fantasy stardom. Before his value gets too out of hand, I took a look at his upcoming schedule and if we should buy into the hype.

Advice Moving Forward:

Tua is a matchup-based starter moving forward with positive matchups heading into the fantasy playoffs. He’s only started two games so we can’t crown him an every-week starter just yet. But the tools are there. His 25%-point swing in Completion Percentage over Expectation (CPOE) from Week 8 to Week 9 despite losing Preston Williams is a solid indicator of his skill. His pocket management, ability to escape pressure, and delivering accurate throws in the red zone were all on display in Week 9. Plus, Miami’s five-game stretch features at least three defenses that shouldn’t post much of an issue for Tua and the Dolphins’ passing game.

Denver and Kansas City pose the greatest threat due to their defensive line play but have still allowed at least one Top-12 finish over their last four games. But another point to consider is the opposing offenses. Even the Jets, in the right environment (as seen on Monday Night Football), can put up 27 points. Three out of the four remaining teams have averaged more than 30 PPG over their last three games. We can’t always project game script, but the matchups are conducive to high-scoring contests that will keep the focus on the passing game. Fantasy managers should always eye the waiver wire for other options, but Tua’s schedule can be leveraged to prepare for a championship run.

Running Back: Zack Moss, Bills

Week 8 Results: 8.4 (Projected), 12.8 (Actual)

Zack Moss was drafted with the expectation he’d become the leader of the backfield. Josh Allen’s rushing talents aside, Moss’ size and pass-catching acumen gave him an advantage over Devin Singletary to start the season. However, Singletary remained the starter early in the season and Moss suffered a toe injury sidelining him for nearly a month. His return started off slow, but his RB7 finish in Week 8 quickly reminded us why we were so excited to draft him during the offseason. His performance relative to Singletary’s over the last couple of weeks was enough to warrant a closer look at the rookie’s usage. I broke down his usage and what we can expect over the next few weeks as we get closer to the playoffs.

Advice Moving Forward:

Moss should be considered a mid-range RB2 moving forward despite the timeshare. Moss’ snaps have been on a positive trajectory since he returned from his toe injury in Week 6. He overtook Devin Singletary as the primary ball carrier in Week 9 despite Singletary being the ceremonial starter. Regardless, Moss has shown up and shown out when compared to Singletary over the last two games.

Moss’ positive differential in nearly every category over the last two games has been the catalyst for his increased workload. His usage, especially in the red zone, is what should sustain his value throughout the rest of the season. Josh Allen’s rushing will always be an impediment to a higher ceiling, but Moss has made the case to be a part of our lineups on a weekly basis moving forward.

Wide Receiver: Marquise Brown, Ravens

Week 8 Results: 11.5 (Projected), 6.8 (Actual)

Marquise Brown apparently feels the same way we do regarding the Ravens’ offense. Questions and frustration surrounding Lamar Jackson have extended to his pass catchers as we haven’t been able to rely on them as we did in 2019. Brown now ranks as the WR43 in PPR with just one Top-24 performance through nine weeks. We expected big performances when the Ravens faced weaker secondary units like Houston, Washington, or Philadelphia only to see the running game or Mark Andrews take over. Folks have been contemplating dropping Brown as we’ve seen the third option on other teams pass him in the weekly standings. If you’re forced to drop him, it’s understandable. However, I took a deeper look into his targets and on-field usage that may help turn things around over the next few weeks.

Advice Moving Forward:

Brown falls into the WR3/FLEX category but has positive matchups ahead over the next few weeks. Let’s focus on the positives. Brown still holds the highest target and air yard share for Baltimore receivers over their last month of games. His 34% air yard share is tied for 19th in the league giving credence to the idea he can still produce at a WR2 level, but he’s been inefficient with his targets. Or, better stated, Lamar Jackson has been inaccurate on a significant portion of his downfield throws to Brown. Marquise is 11th in targets of 15 air yards or more for receivers with a target share greater than 20%. However, he’s 35th in the percentage of these targets that have been on-target (45%). Surprisingly enough, Jackson and Brown connected on just 47.6% of these attempts in 2019. The main difference is that Brown scored 4 touchdowns after making those catches. He hasn’t done that once this season. Marquise Brown and A.J Green are the only receivers with 20 or more deep targets and not a single touchdown as a result. Lamar has taken a deep shot towards Marquise in every game except Week 8. With nothing to suggest his usage will change, the touchdown variance should swing back their way with his intermediate targets to provide a low but stable floor. Plus, as I mentioned in my thoughts regarding Lamar Jackson, his playoff schedule is worth holding on to Brown as gets closer to the end of the fantasy season.