An easy lesson coming out of Week 4 is to have backup plans for your backup plans. The associated lesson with identifying backup plans is to adjust your expectations and rosters to accommodate the likely drop in production. Everyone’s league was disrupted this past week because of the schedule shuffling due to the pandemic. League rules were renegotiated and rosters were filled with players most managers never considered starting. As the season continues, our time to improve our roster doesn’t just happen on Tuesday night with the week’s first waiver run. News will continue to flow throughout the week giving us an opportunity to build a winning roster despite any pitfalls that may come along the way.
Injuries and postponed games aside, Week 4 had its fair share of let downs and bright spots. Lessons Learned will typically focus on the disappointments, but a positive lesson coming out of Week 4 was worth discussing as fantasy managers take to the waiver wire. Let’s start at the quarterback position and see what we can expect out of the Texans’ quarterback in the weeks ahead.
Quarterback: Deshaun Watson, Texans
Week 4 Results: (Projected) 22.8, (Actual) 20.9
Watson was a consensus top-eight quarterback throughout draft season. Despite losing DeAndre Hopkins, the addition of Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb with the hope Will Fuller could stay healthy was enough to allay our collective worries. But Watson sits at QB13 through four weeks. He was only able to squeak out 20.9 points in Week 4 with 41.3% of his yardage coming in the fourth quarter. While we’ll take the points, the entire Texans’ offense is an enigma with most of the questions directed at the two-time Pro Bowler. Watson may not have been a big disappointment in Week 4, but he left the fantasy community wanting more from the perennial QB1. Bill O’Brien’s departure may be the key to unlock the offense but we’ll need to dive into what some of their issues were to gauge the team’s offensive outlook moving forward.
Advice Moving Forward:
Keep starting Watson as the schedule continues to open up under Romeo Crennel. Crennel hasn’t been a head coach since 2012. But he was coaching Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn then. He has Deshaun Watson now. Crennel knows the playbook and has served as Defensive Coordinator since before Watson was drafted. He knows what Watson can do and he’s also seen what hasn’t been working for the Texans’ offense. Houston’s neutral passing rate has fluctuated each week from 53.8% to 68.1% indicating an erratic approach to offensive game planning. Bill O’Brien was also calling run plays on second down with 8 or more yards to go on 31.6% of their plays. On a team ranked 21st in adjusted line yards, the poor playcalling on early downs contributed to Houston’s abysmal 34.9% third-down conversation rate. Watson has also been held in check as a runner. He only has 4.3 attempts per game compared to his 5.5 attempts per game in 2019. Crennel can at least enable Watson to command the offense his way and be the playmaker he always has been. Their upcoming schedule also favors this transition time. All of their opponents over the next month are in the bottom half for schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. While Crennel and Watson get on the same page, their upcoming matchups will keep Watson in the QB1 conversation sustaining his value as we approach the midway point in the season.
Running Back: Mark Ingram, Ravens
Week 4 Results: (Projected) 9.7, (Actual) 10.7
We assumed Mark Ingram (or the Ravens’ coaching staff) would maintain most of his workload headed into 2020. He maintained a 43.9% rushing share throughout most of 2019 while the team was still playing competitively and racked up 18 targets in the process. He wasn’t expected to score 15 touchdowns again, but his usage in an offense that scored 31.9 PPG was enough to keep us interested in Ingram’s RB26 ADP. The workload concerns due to Baltimore drafting J.K. Dobbins were valid. Plus, a scenario always existed where the veteran would cede touches to the rookie as the team solidified its playoff position. But that scenario was supposed to happen later in the season and yet we’re watching it happen now. Mark Ingram has been the ceremonial starter for Ravens but is yet to exceed 12 touches in a game. He’s first in attempts from within the 10-yard line, but both Ingram and Dobbins have converted in this area. Plus, Gus Edwards has been a much larger factor than anticipated as his snap share has nearly matched Ingrams’ (30% to 34%). We have a three-way committee in Baltimore and that doesn’t account for the former league MVP. With only 32.3 total points scored over four weeks, we’ll need to look at Ingram’s workload and situation and decide what to do. Moving on from a player in a good offense isn’t always easy, but Baltimore may be telling us they’re concerned with a bit more than our fantasy rosters.
Advice Moving Forward:
Ingram can’t be reliably started and should be packaged in a trade. Let’s think through this logically. There’s no game script that forces Baltimore to use Ingram more than they have so far throughout the season. A breakdown of his touch share holds some truth to this thought. When trailing, Ingram’s moved to the back of the pack with just a 26.7% rushing share compared to his 37.5% share in neutral situations. If the team holds a lead, Ingram starts to fade. At the start of the second half, Ingram’s hold on the backfield slips to 24.4% and dips to 21.4% in the fourth quarter. Ingram needs teams that can score and keep Baltimore in their base personnel. But two of their next three opponents are in the Bottom 10 for Points per Game. Fantasy managers rostering Ingram have the opportunity over the next two weeks to move Ingram for a reliable substitute. Cincinnati and Philadelphia have allowed 27.6 and 26.4 adjusted fantasy points to running backs in PPR scoring, respectively. The positive game environments ahead of Ingram are either valid negotiating points or reasons for optimism, but alternate options should be found to avoid Baltimore’s rushing committee.
Wide Receiver: Justin Jefferson, Vikings
Week 4 Results: (Projected) 14.4, (Actual) 14.3
The general offseason narrative was that rookie wide receivers would struggle because of the reduced offseason. A nuanced version of that narrative focused on the wide receivers drafted into positive situations. Players like Jerry Jeudy, Jalen Reagor, and CeeDee Lamb immediately fit into their respective offenses. A path to significant target shares in 2020 was clear for each rookie. Justin Jefferson fell into that category at first but fell behind in training camp. Multiple reports highlighted Jefferson running with the second team which caused his draft stock to plummet. He started off the season splitting time with Olabisi Johnson, but it only took two weeks for the rookie’s talent to surface. Jefferson has eclipsed 100 yards in two straight weeks and it’s time to start discussing the Minnesota wide receiver as a weekly option for the remainder of the season.
Advice Moving Forward:
Jefferson should be in the weekly WR2/FLEX conversation. In all actuality, he’d be a part of the WR2 conversation if not for the passing volume concern in Minnesota. The Vikings continue to pass at the lowest rate in the league in neutral scripts (45.9%). Cousins’ maximum number of pass attempts in a game has been just 27. But Jefferson has earned a whopping 32.7% of Cousins’ target over the past two weeks. The total volume may be small, but Jefferson’s earned a significant enough share to warrant our weekly consideration. Minnesota faces Seattle, Atlanta, and Green Bay over their next three games (scheduled bye in Week 7). All three have allowed either a 300-plus-yard passing in a game or a single receiver to go over 100 yards on the day. It’s tough trusting a low-volume passer like Cousins to support two receivers on a weekly basis. However, Jefferson has earned a large enough share of the offense to warrant his consideration on our rosters for the foreseeable future.
