I'll keep it simple. The lesson learned after Week 2 was that the draft is just a part of the fantasy season. It doesn’t matter what format you play. Re-draft squads took the brunt of the carnage, but even best-ball managers were looking through their portfolio to find out how many players would be missing from their optimal lineups. Injuries are like earthquakes for the fantasy community. They shake up the current landscape while plate tectonics shift player values into new formations. Guys left for dead on the waiver wire become must-have acquisitions. First-round draft picks can be found on the waiver wire. Week 2’s injuries, the fallout, and our corresponding waiver wire additions and trades will tell the story of our season. But, for now, some of us are left in damage-control mode.
The injury chaos helped hide some of the disappointing performances in Week 2. Players with Top-12 projections or in positive game environments that still underperformed require a second look before we put them back on our active roster. With injuries to manage and bye weeks coming, we’ll need some assurance that a rebound is possible. Let’s look at a few cases from this past week.
Quarterback: Tom Brady, Buccaneers
Week 2 Results: (Projected) 21.5, (Actual) 8.7
The Panthers were the prime matchup for Brady and the Buccaneers to get right. After a disappointing Week 1 loss, the results were chalked up to a tough matchup and Mike Evans being less than 100%. But the team, and the fantasy community, quickly turned to Week 2. Derek Carr had an efficient outing against Carolina while completing 50% of his deep passes (one for a touchdown) and working the short to intermediate areas of the field with his playmakers. He finished with a +8.6% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) while averaging 0.36 expected points added per play (EPA per play) which was comparable to the top quarterbacks in the league. If Carr could do that, Brady looked unstoppable against the young Carolina secondary. Tampa scored 31 points, but Brady’s arm wasn’t the main contributor. Ronald Jones II and Leonard Fournette combined for three scores on the ground while Brady threw an interception and lost a fumble on a hand-off exchange. Two weeks outside the Top 12 forces us to look at the former Patriot in a new light. He might be the most recognizable quarterback in the league, but that doesn’t help us in the box score.
Advice Moving Forward:
Look for more upside on the waiver wire. Through two weeks, the Buccaneers have passed at a 51.9% rate in neutral situations (league average is 56.0%). In addition, Brady’s current sits at a 7.4 aDOT which is less than his full-season average in 2019 (7.6). The initial thought was that Mike Evans being limited in Week 1 hampered his downfield attempts. However, Brady had a 7.8 aDOT in Week 1. It actually decreased to 7.0 with the loss of Godwin to concussion in Week 2. Plus, Brady hasn’t been as efficient as a passer while learning from Bruce Arians. His 5.4 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) is his worse start to the season since 2013. Tom Brady and Derek Carr have played the same two teams to start the season (Saints, Panthers). Carr has outscored Brady in both cases, but only one of these quarterbacks can be readily found on the waiver wire. We’ve had to lower our expectations for this Tampa Bay offense as a whole and the quarterback position is filled with streaming options for this week and beyond. With options like Gardner Minshew out on the waiver wire, it’s time to look for better options until Brady can get in sync.
Running Back: David Johnson, Texans
Week 2 Results: (Projected) 16.7, (Actual) 7.0
Week 1 was encouraging for fantasy managers that drafted David Johnson. Even with Duke Johnson Jr active, the former Cardinal saw 68.8% of the running back rush attempts and earned a 12.5% target share. His touchdown, the first of the 2020 season, showed some of the old burst that many had feared was sapped after dealing with injuries the year prior. After a promising start, there was some hope that the risk of drafting Johnson was worth the reward. To boot, Duke Johnson Jr was expected to miss Week 2 ceding all of his touches to David Johnson. Even with the difficult matchup against the Ravens, fantasy managers leaned on the volume and the expectation that Johnson would be used more as both a runner and receiver. But the Texans’ offense imploded. Johnson didn’t see any volume increase and he finished as the RB47. With such a discrepancy, we’re forced to look at Johnson and the Texans’ offense as a whole and see what can be salvaged as we head into Week 3.
Advice Moving Forward:
He should be packaged in a trade or only used in positive matchups. One positive is that with Duke Johnson Jr inactive, David Johnson received 100% of the running back workload in Week 2. He was on the field for 95% of the team’s snaps and was the only running back to get work in the passing game. The problem was the volume of touches. He had the exact same number of touches in Week 2 despite Duke being inactive. Houston was trailing by a touchdown or more for much of the 2nd quarter and the entire second half, but the offense couldn’t generate anything on the field. The team averaged 34.7 yards per drive against the Ravens limiting all facets of the offense. They travel to Pittsburgh whose defense is first in both pressure and blitz rate. If Week 2 was any indication of the Texans’ response to pressure, David Johnson will have a negative outlook for Week 3. If you’re forced to start him due to injuries, his 11.1% target share could buoy his results providing a floor play. But without a boost in the Texans’ offense, Johnson’s weekly prospects will make him tough to start.
Wide Receiver: A.J. Green, Bengals
Week 2 Results: (Projected) 14.7, (Actual) 5.9
Looking back at it, Green’s offseason set the tone for his start to the 2020 season. He spoke out about his franchise-tag signing in July indicating some tension between the Green and Bengals’ front office. Green then tweaked his hamstring during the team’s first set of offseason practices limiting his time with Joe Burrow. Green’s draft ADP relative to his potential upside was a constant debate throughout draft season. If Cincinnati continued their passing rate and featured Green in the offense, the ceiling was limitless. But Week 2 highlighted most of the concerns associated with the 32-year-old receiver. Green earned 13 targets but was only able to haul in 3 on the day. He was only able to convert 50% of his contested catches and dropped a sure touchdown late in the game. In a game where Burrow attempted 61 passes and topped 300 yards, we expected more from the Bengals’ lead receiver. We’re now forced to re-evaluate Green’s prospects and if he’s a viable option on our fantasy squads.
Advice Moving Forward:
Green should be considered a mid-tier FLEX play moving forward. The positive is that Green earned a 21.3% target share which was the most of any pass-catcher on the team. His 61.5% slot rate doesn’t indicate any deviation in his usage. However, his timing and rapport with Burrow, or lack thereof, opened up the target competition to the rest of the Bengals’ pass-catchers. Drew Sample out-targeted Green in the second half 8 to 6. Tyler Boyd caught one of Burrow’s touchdowns during the comeback effort. Green earned only one deep target and was unable to separate himself while in scoring position as he tied three other players in red zone opportunities (Sample lead the team). The Bengals’ passing game has been spread out with Cincinnati incorporating five-receiver sets into their playcalling. Without a concentrated passing scheme, Green’s potential for spike weeks will be limited until he can get in rhythm with Burrow. Until then, other options at FLEX should be considered ahead of him.
