A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should outperform their draft position.
They gave us 15 names. That's a lot, especially at tight end.
If you want all of the players, keep on reading. If you just want the top vote-getter, he goes by the name of Mike Gesicki and had six votes. Finishing second was Hayden Hurst with four.
NOTE: We know all these different opinions can be a lot. And certainly, not everyone agrees on everything.
If you want to cut straight to the chase and get our "Bottom Line" for where we project every player right down to the last yard, you can see that here. That's our Bottom Line and where we plant the Footballguys Flag for all these players.
If you'd like to see more detail about how the staff sees different players, here is every wide receiver who was mentioned and the reasons why.
Player Receiving 6 Votes
Mike Gesicki, Miami
Sigmund Bloom: Gesicki took off in the second half of 2019 and should continue to be a key target after Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns opted out of the 2020 season. If Preston Williams isn't ready for Week 1, Gesicki should get an even bigger target share against a new look Patriots linebacker/safety group. Gesicki is a priority whether you wait at tight end to get a TE1 at a discount or take your TE1 early but want an upside bench play to free up your stud TE1 for trade or otherwise deprive a rival of an out after they waited at tight end.
James Brimacombe: Gesicki finished the season strong last year scoring all five of his touchdowns in the last six games. Now entering season three in the league, Gesicki is in a prime spot to continue his 2019 late-season breakout. There is a solid shot that he could open the season as the second option in the Dolphins passing game next to DeVante Parker. Preston Williams might need extra time to get ready for the season coming back from his ACL injury. Playing in 15 games in 2019 he finished as TE11, finishing with 51 receptions on 89 targets for 570 yards and five touchdowns.
Jeff Haseley: Looking at fantasy stats since Week 9 last season, Mike Gesicki was 8th among tight ends in PPR scoring. In this time frame, he finished with 1 point fewer than Darren Waller and 3 points fewer than Mark Andrews. In his last six games of 2019, he scored five touchdowns and scored in four of those six games. The 2020 Dolphins have stockpiled young talent and Gesicki is a big piece of their offensive game plan. He has the athleticism, talent, and opportunity to finish inside the top 10. Chan Gailey's offense has not been too kind to tight ends in the past, but it's hard to ignore Gesicki's rise at the end of last season and the continued growth and development of the Dolphins offense in 2020 and beyond.
Ryan Hester: He has wide receiver skills and will be catching passes from a quarterback who either A) isn't afraid to throw 50/50 balls, or B) will likely find short-to-intermediate targets as security blankets. And Miami didn't add anyone of significance to usurp Gesicki's spot in the priority list for targets.
Dan Hindery: Gesicki emerged in the second half of the 2019 season as one of Miami’s top playmakers. He was the fantasy TE8 in the second half of the season. He could take another step forward in his third season. Miami’s top two slot receivers (Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns) both opted out for the season. Gesicki, who took 72% of his snaps from the slot last season, should take on an even bigger pass-catching role from the slot in 2020. We also don’t know what Gesicki’s ceiling is yet. He is a freakish athlete. At 6’6 and 252 pounds, he ran a 4.55 forty-yard dash and had a 41-inch vertical at the combine two years ago.
Jason Wood: Finding value at the tight end position can be difficult because the difference between finishing TE6 and TE14 could be a few extra touchdowns over a full season. But Gesicki is one of the more exciting options if you wait at the position because he was an elite producer in the final half of last year. Normally you don't want to overvalue an 8-game stretch, but in this case, it was a light switch going off. The tight end position is among the hardest to figure out, and Gesicki finally found his footing midway through 2019. He came into the league an elite athlete with questionable polish. But as 2019 progressed, the film shows a more aggressive, willing blocker and a far smarter route runner. If those gains were real, he could be this year's Mark Andrews. And the Dolphins receiving corps leaves much to be desired, but Tua Tagovailoa needs reliable weapons.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
Hayden Hurst, Atlanta
James Brimacombe: Out goes Austin Hooper and in comes Hayden Hurst. That is how I am seeing it for the Falcons at the tight end position this season. Hurst will look to take over all the targets that Hooper is leaving behind and QB Matt Ryan will look to Hurst as his third option in the passing game behind Jones and Ridley. Playing second fiddle to Mark Andrews in Baltimore last season, Hurst still managed to put up a 30/349/2 stat line and will look to double those numbers in a full-time role in Atlanta's pass-first offense.
Andrew Davenport: Austin Hooper's numbers last year were a product of several favorable conditions in Atlanta that still exist in 2020. Offensive Coordinator Dirk Koetter and quarterback Matt Ryan both like to utilize the tight end to the tune of 121 targets to the position in 2019. The Falcons also have an elite pass tendency (sometimes resulting from a poor defense) that has seen them chuck the ball over 1,200 times the past two seasons, good for third in the NFL. It isn't necessary to believe Hayden Hurst is the next Tony Gonzalez to see the fantasy potential. His ADP leaves plenty of room for him to outperform current expectations.
Jeff Pasquino: Atlanta's offense was successful with their incorporation of Austin Hooper, who stepped up for over 70 catches and 700 yards along with five scores on average the past two seasons. As Jason states, you cannot just plug Hurst in for Hooper and expect the same results, but Hurst fits the same mold. Hurst is a former first-round pick for Baltimore - a team known for drafting tight ends well - and then making moves to give players opportunities elsewhere if they are really blocked on the depth chart. Darren Waller of the Raiders is one clear example. Hurst was plagued by injuries as a rookie and was never able to push for enough playing time, but Baltimore traded Hurst to Atlanta plus a fourth for a second and fifth-round selection, which points to both sides attributing solid value to Hurst.
Danny Tuccitto: My True Fantasy Points system assumes league-average performance from players switching teams, for which Hurst qualifies. Having said that, the expected volume of a tight end in a Dirk Koetter offense is one of the few things to hang your hat on in fantasy football. This is an offensive coach who, except for 2014, has given his tight ends upwards of 80 targets each season for the past decade.
Player Receiving 3 Votes
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia
Jeff Haseley: We already know that Philadelphia uses a lot of 12-personnel formations in their offense, the most in the NFL last season. Both Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert are a big piece of their offense. Since Week 11 last season, Ertz and Goedert had 60 and 55 targets respectively, easily the top two targets of all Eagles receivers (Greg Ward was third with 40). Ertz was the #2 overall tight end in that span and Goedert was 6th. Even when both tight ends are healthy, they both produce. If Ertz is forced to miss time, Goedert becomes an automatic candidate for a weekly top 3 tight end.
Andy Hicks: Many will shy away from taking Dallas Goedert in 2020 due to the presence of Zach Ertz on the same team. What this doesn’t take into account is that Ertz will hit 30 this year, while Goedert is still approaching his peak. It wouldn’t be the first time in NFL history that a veteran was eased out for a younger player. It won’t happen overnight, but I expect a significant move this year. Looking at Goedert closely over the first five weeks of 2019 and it was a disaster. Five catches for 43 yards and a touchdown for that whole period. After that it gets interesting. Ertz had 59 catches for 604 yards and five touchdowns from week six onwards, while Goedert had 53 catches for 564 yards and four touchdowns. The changing of the guard could come soon and for 2020 Goedert stands every chance of exceeding his draft slot considerably.
Dan Hindery: While Jalen Reagor should add a nice boost to the wide receiving corps, the Eagles are still subpar at the wide receiver position. The team will again need to lean heavily on Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. The end of the 2019 season gives us a good idea of Goedert’s upside in an expanded role. Over the final six weeks, he averaged 8.2 targets per game, which is a huge number. Only Ertz and Travis Kelce averaged 8+ targets per game last season. Even with Ertz leading the way, there are enough targets available in this offense for Goedert to also put up solid TE1 fantasy numbers. If Ertz would miss time with injury, Goedert would have TE1 overall upside.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Jack Doyle, Indianapolis
James Brimacombe: Eric Ebron is now off the depth chart in Indianapolis and that boosts up Doyle's production in my eyes. Doyle was TE18 in 2019 with a 43/448/4 stat line under Jacoby Brissett and now gets an upgrade to the passing offense with Philip Rivers who has a history of getting the ball to his tight end. Doyle has a great opportunity to sneak into a top 10 tight end role this year as his role on the team has been upgraded along with his quarterback.
Andrew Davenport: Eric Ebron has moved on to Pittsburgh, and the competition for Doyle is now Trey Burton. Doyle earned 72 targets on his own last year (Ebron missed the final five games), but if he can earn some of the 52 that Ebron left behind it is reasonable to think he'll have a solid floor. But there is an argument to be even more optimistic as well. Philip Rivers is now in town and that means the offense as a whole should be more efficient, and Rivers should provide more quality targets as well. Doyle's TE15 finish last year was uninspiring, but without Ebron, and with a new quarterback, it only takes a modest bump for him to finish as a TE1 for the year. His ADP is not reflecting that possibility.
Evan Engram, NY Giants
Chad Parsons: Engram has been one of the sleeping giants of the tight end position since entering the NFL, largely due to his collection of missed games. On a per-game basis, Engram has been a top-8 producer each of his first three seasons, matched only by Jeremy Shockey dating back to the mid-1990s for a similar career start. Engram will need a string of health to post a truly dominant year, but the talent and production when he plays have not been a question to-date. Also working in Engram's favor is the lack of a prototypical No.1 receiver with the Giants where Engram could be the WR1 proxy in the offense and being priced beyond the elite tight ends in terms of fantasy draft cost.
Jeff Pasquino: Evan Engram is getting overlooked this year in the tight end rankings. Engram was the fifth overall tight end in fantasy in 2017, his rookie season, where he put up strong numbers (64-772-6). Engram missed five games in his second year but was still on pace for comparable numbers (65-839-4). Last year New York was very much in an offensive transition, with Odell Beckham Jr now in Cleveland and Eli Manning yielding to new starter Daniel Jones. Even with all that turmoil and eight games missed due to injury, Engram was on pace for Pro Bowl-caliber numbers (88-934-6 pace). The Giants do not give Jones many strong options at wide receiver with Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard, and Darius Slayton looking to split duties as the top three receivers. Engram projects as a Top 5 tight end with all of the expected looks over the middle from Jones.
Hunter Henry, LA Chargers
Andy Hicks: After missing the entire 2018 and four of the first five games of 2019, Hunter Henry had a strong comeback season. He finished the year ranked eighth and somehow his ADP is around that spot again. He missed four games and is approaching his career peak. He will be a strong outlet for Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert. He has no competition at the position on the roster and has one of the most amazing yards per target at his position ever. Sure you can take one of the guys ahead of him on ADP who present more risk, but Henry has plenty of upside and a long career ahead of him
Jeff Pasquino: Hunter Henry is poised to be one of the top targets for the Chargers this year in a revamped offense and passing game. Philip Rivers is now in Indianapolis, and either Tyrod Taylor or rookie Justin Herbert (possibly both) will be leading the Los Angeles passing game. Henry has 100 career catches in just two active seasons (he missed all of 2018 due to injury), averaging over 600 yards and scoring nine times total in 26 career contests. Henry must stay healthy to achieve his full value, but he easily projects as a Top 10 tight end option for 2020 and for years to come once Los Angeles signs him to an extension.
T.J. Hockenson, Detroit
Phil Alexander: Hockenson missed four games last year and still led all rookie tight ends with a 14% team target share. There is room for his role to expand, and not just because he should be healthier this year. Offensive coordinator Darrel Bevel sounds excited to get Hockenson more involved in the passing game, Danny Amendola's role as the No. 3 option in the passing game is tenuous, and Logan Thomas' departure is going overlooked. Thomas exceeded 20% of the team's offensive snaps in eight out of the 12 games Hockenson was active in 2019. He was also targeted seven times inside the red zone, which matched Hockenson's total. Absorbing Thomas' snaps and scoring chances are all Hockenson needs to challenge the top-10 tight ends. And if he has "grown into his paws" in year-two, top-5 isn't out of the question. The fact he "still notices his ankle injury" adds risk, but should serve to further depress Hockenson's ADP.
Jason Wood: I wrote a detailed Player Spotlight on why Hockenson is the best value at any position this year, and the recent misinterpreted comments about his ankle not yet being 100% have only increased his value by dropping his ADP further. Hockenson's rookie year is identical to a composite of the league's all-time elite pass-catching tight ends. He's right on track, particularly considering Matthew Stafford is back. Hockenson is a generational talent, who like George Kittle is capable of being on the field in any down and distance. This is the only year you'll have a chance to roster him at a deep discount, don't pass it up.
Jonnu Smith, Tennessee
Sigmund Bloom: Smith is one of the more formidable, if not the most formidable tight end after the catch and he plays in an offense that will keep defenses busy defending the run. He could have a much larger role this year entering the season as the clear starter in a Ryan Tannehill offense and should be on your priority list of possible TE1 producers available outside of the Ttop 10.
James Brimacombe: Delanie Walker is no longer a Titan and that alone should get people excited for Smith's opportunities in 2020. Smith is entering his fourth season and is coming off career highs in targets 45, receptions 35, yards 439, and touchdowns 3 as he finished as TE17. The Titans need playmakers in the passing offense behind A.J. Brown and this could be the perfect spot for Smith to step in and be a favorite target for Ryan Tannehill. The fear is that the Titans don't pass the ball at a high level as they rely on Henry and their running game. I expect the Titans to mix it up more with a more balanced run and passing game and I think Smith is one of the key pieces to make it work.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Jared Cook, New Orleans
Andrew Davenport: Cook finished the year as the TE10 in PPR leagues. But, what's even more impressive is that he missed two games in the middle of the season before his bye week and still pulled off the top ten finish. The interesting thing about Cook, however, is that something really seemed to click after the bye that allowed him and Drew Brees to connect and start producing. From Weeks 10-17 he was the second-best tight end in the league at 15.5 PPR points per game. It's always possible that the post-bye split is too small of a sample to rely on, but the difference at least suggests that Cook and Brees needed time to develop chemistry and did so in the second half. What's even more exciting for Cook is that he did his damage on only 43 receptions and a scant 65 targets. If he can secure even a modest bump in opportunity, he could make a run at a top-six finish at the position. That is a great value considering his current ADP.
Noah Fant, Denver
Ryan Hester: Fant ranks in the 96th percentile or higher in the 40-yard dash, speed score, agility score, burst score, and catch radius according to PlayerProfiler.com. Despite the team's acquisition of Jerry Jeudy in the first round of the draft, Fant's target volume should be safe. Denver hardly targeted the running back position in the passing game last season, instead often utilizing Fant on tight end screens and other run-after-catch opportunities. Our Dan Hindery asked back in June if Denver could be a breakout offense this season and cited Mark Andrews' second-year emergence for Baltimore last season as a potential comparison for Fant.
Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay
Phil Alexander: The fantasy football demise of Rob Gronkowski is a fallacy. History is on the side of elite tight ends in their age-31 season, and Gronkowski is the best the position has ever seen. Even if the presence of O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate limits Gronkowski to a modest 60% of the offensive snaps he can still finish with 85-90 targets, which is possible (if not likely) given his familiarity with Tom Brady. Assuming Gronkowski's targets per snap, catch rate, and yards per reception remain in line with his career norms (they did in 2018), we would be looking at about 60 catches, 800 receiving yards, and of course, 8-10 touchdowns -- numbers that approximate what Mark Andrews put up in 2019.
Tyler Higbee, LA Rams
James Brimacombe: In a total of 14 games, Higbee broke out in his fourth season for a 69/734/3 stat line on 89 targets and finished as the TE9 in fantasy. His emergence really came on in Weeks 13-17 as he saw 56 targets, 43 receptions, 522 yards, and a pair of touchdowns in those five games. With Cooks now out of town the target share could remain in Higbee's favor in 2020 as he has become one of Jared Goff's go-to targets in the offense.
Austin Hooper, Cleveland
Dan Hindery: Hooper finished as the TE6 last season despite missing more than three games with an injury. While the situation isn’t as rosy in Cleveland due to the Browns projecting as a run-heavy offense, Hooper is still well-positioned to put up solid TE1 numbers and comes with a higher floor than any other tight end around his current ADP. Hooper spent three weeks during the offseason living with Baker Mayfield. The two got in a lot of practice reps during that time and likely sped up the process of building chemistry substantially. Hooper is serviceable at best as a blocker. The Browns didn’t give him $11M per year without a plan to get him the ball.
George Kittle, San Francisco
Sigmund Bloom: If Kittle hadn't missed two games with an injury, he would have had roughly the same numbers as Travis Kelce. He's four years younger than Kelce, in an offense without nearly as many established targets at wide receiver, and unlike Kelce, we might not have seen the best of Kittle yet now that he has an extension and security.
Darren Waller, Las Vegas
Jeff Haseley: Darren Waller has been through a lot in his life, most notably substance abuse at an early age that carried over into his time in the NFL. He amounted to little for several years before ultimately deciding to take the steps necessary to turn his life around that he still does daily. He started out as a wide receiver but eventually found his niche as a tight end. The Raiders organization gave him a chance and he ran with it, to the tune of 90 catches for 1,146 yards and 3 touchdowns in his breakout 2019 season. It's easy to say that past history shows that players, especially tight ends, who have a big season after being quiet for 3-4 years prior, tend to take a step back after having a career year. Waller's path to power is different from others. He changed positions, found the right coach in Jon Gruden who believed in him and helped him reach his goals. Waller became a staple in the Raiders offensive game plan and that shouldn't change. If anything, Waller should see a positive regression of touchdowns this season. People are shying away from him as a fantasy asset due to concerns that he won't repeat last year's performance. What if last year is just the beginning of Waller's dominance at the position?
