One of the trickiest things to navigate as you approach your draft is how much -- or how little -- to react to training camp soundbites, and the resulting swings in Average Draft Position (ADP). Sometimes when a player's ADP peaks this time of year, it's warranted. But oftentimes, preseason surges in ADP are the results of groupthink and confirmation bias within the fantasy football community, which create landmines fantasy gamers must carefully avoid. With a lack of preseason games to gauge whether or not the hype matches the way players are being used, this year is particularly challenging.
Below you'll find a list of players whose ADP has increased significantly in PPR leagues since training camps opened per our ADP data. Are we sure we want to pay top dollar to get these guys on our teams?
Antonio Gibson
Where we started: Pick 139 (12.01). Gibson was a rookie with intriguing athletic measurables, but he played mostly receiver at Memphis. The prevailing wisdom implied he was too raw to make an impact on a lousy Washington team with a crowded running back depth chart.
Where are we now: Pick 83 (7.10). Derrius Guice was arrested for domestic violence and promptly kicked off the team, opening the door for Gibson to mix in with the starters in camp and look good doing it.
Are we sure we have it right? Yes.
Gibson's ADP has taken off, but it appears to have settled in the late seventh round. If you're targeting a running back at that point in the draft, upside should be your only concern. Gibson has more of it than the one-dimensional satellite backs (Tarik Cohen), short-straw platoon runners (Phillip Lindsay), and early-down grinders (Jordan Howard) typically available in the same range.
The funny thing about Gibson's rise up draft boards is that it happened for the wrong reason. Guice's release will free up a handful of carries per game, which boosts Gibson's floor a tad, but Adrian Peterson and Bryce Love are still the favorites to inherit most of Guice's vacated base-down carries. Kelvin Harmon's season-ending ACL injury is the more likely catalyst for a Gibson breakout season.
Washington arguably had zero pass-catchers of consequence behind Terry McLaurin before the Harmon injury. But the loss of Harmon, who commanded nearly six targets per game after becoming an every-down player last year, creates an opening for Gibson to emerge as the Football Teams' second-leading receiver. New offensive coordinator, Scott Turner, has a track record of using positionless tweeners creatively (see Curtis Samuel's increased involvement as a rusher late last year). We should trust Turner to let his playmakers do what they do best. For Gibson, that means catching the ball in space and making fantasy-friendly chunk gains after the catch.
Allen Lazard
Where we started: Pick 197 (14.11). People were still shocked Lazard wasn't replaced during free agency and the NFL Draft as Aaron Rodgers' WR2.
Where are we now: Pick 143 (12.04). Devin Funchess, who may have been a longshot to make the roster anyway, opted out of the season, cementing Lazard as Rodgers' WR2.
Are we sure we have it right? No.
Lazard will outperform his WR54 ADP by just being an every-down player for the Packers. The problem is, the stats he compiles won't help you win matchups.
After becoming a starter in Week 7 last season, Lazard finished with 45 receiving yards or less in eight out of 10 games. He also failed to earn Rodgers' trust in the red zone, failing to score a touchdown on five targets from inside the 20-yard line. If you're after empty 6-3-42-0 receiving lines from your WR4/5, by all means, draft Lazard. Just know he doesn't possess the ability to help you win weeks. Breshad Perriman, Preston Williams, Curtis Samuel, and Parris Campbell are all available later than Lazard and stand a better chance of ever warranting a spot in your starting lineup.
Jalen Reagor
Where we started: Pick 133 (11.06). Many were surprised the Eagles went with the small-school prospect Reagor instead of trading up in the NFL Draft when Oklahoma's CeeDee Lamb was slipping or taking Justin Jefferson out of LSU.
Where are we now: Pick 119 (10.07). Alshon Jeffery doesn't appear ready to start the season. Reagor has reportedly looked like a mix between DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin while running with the first team in padded practices, and Carson Wentz has mentioned the rookie's name in the same sentence as Julio Jones.
Are we sure we have it right? Yes.
It shouldn't surprise anyone Reagor has a pro-ready game. Like most rookie wideouts, his route-running lacks polish, but his speed on vertical routes and explosiveness after-the-catch should translate right away.
We saw how thin the Eagles were at wide receiver behind the oft-injured veterans Jeffery and Jackson last year. Whether by injury attrition or raw talent, it would be easy to envision Reagor emerging as Wentz's favorite perimeter target in the near term. Philadelphia's offense gives Reagor a higher ceiling than fellow rookies Jefferson, Jerry Jeudy, and Brandon Aiyuk, and he projects for a larger target share in year-one than CeeDee Lamb.
Will Fuller
Where we started: Pick 93 (8.07). Fuller ended the 2019 season the same way he ended the 2018 and 2017 seasons -- with fewer than 12 games played.
Where are we now: Pick 63 (6.03). Fuller showed up to training camp with added muscle and ready to ball out, according to Deshaun Watson. Bill O'Brien says Fuller can run the whole route tree, fueling optimism he can be the primary beneficiary of DeAndre Hopkins' departure.
Are we sure we have it right? Yes.
Even at a sixth-round ADP, Fuller remains discounted due to his well-documented injury history. The target void left behind by Hopkins is massive. And while Houston also brought in Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb, a healthy Fuller has the most to gain as the only Texans starter who already has a strong rapport with Watson.
Since 2017, Fuller has averaged 1.48 fantasy points per target, a top-5 rate among relevant wide receivers over the last three years. In the previous two seasons, he's caught an astounding 70% of his targets while also averaging nearly 15 yards per reception. If there is even a chance this is the year he lucks into a healthy season, a sixth-round pick is a small price to pay for a hyper-efficient receiver set to receive a target windfall.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Where we started: Pick 25 (3.01). Edwards-Helaire was the only running back selected in the first round of the NFL Draft and landed in Kansas City, perhaps the most favorable landing spot for a running back in the league. The only problem was the team still had Damien Williams, who arguably deserved to win the Super Bowl MVP award in 2019.
Where are we now: Pick 7 (1.07). Williams removed himself from the equation by opting out of the 2020 season. The debate has shifted from whether Edwards-Helaire was worth a first-round pick in the NFL Draft to if he warrants a top-5 overall pick in fantasy drafts.
Are we sure we have it right? Yes.
We won't spill too much digital ink on Edwards-Helaire since the Footballguys covered every possible angle of his fantasy value when news broke of Williams' decision to opt-out earlier this month.
It's as simple as this -- Edwards-Helaire is the unquestioned lead-back on the league's best offense and adds value to his touches in the passing game. Manufacturing reasons to doubt his standing as one of the best running backs in fantasy football is making this harder than it needs to be. Consider yourself fortunate if you can land him with a top-6 pick. It only helps he's been drawing rave reviews from reporters, team executives, and players since camp started.
Zack Moss
Where we started: Pick 111 (10.03). Devin Singletary showed promise as a rookie, finishing the second half of the season as the RB21 in PPR leagues. Moss was only drafted for depth since the team cut ties with Frank Gore.
Where are we now: Pick 98 (9.02). Wait a minute. Gore touched the ball 12 times per game last year and was the team's primary ball-carrier in the red zone. Why shouldn't Moss, a third-round pick like Singletary, inherit Gore's significant role on offense?
Are we sure we have it right? No.
The gap between Moss in Round 10 and Singletary in Round 4 should always have been much closer, so in one respect, Moss's rise up draft boards makes sense. But the correct answer here is no because Buffalo's backfield is one to avoid.
Moss runs with more power and Singletary with more burst, but ultimately, the two are redundant talents. They allow the Bills to run their offense regardless of which back is on the field, which is terrific for Buffalo but not so much for fantasy gamers. The smart bet is both backs cannibalize each other's value and lose out to Josh Allen too often at the goal line. If you're looking for a running back an injury away from tilting championships, draft Chase Edmonds in the same ADP range (spoiler alert).
Chase Edmonds
Where we started: Pick 156 (12.12). Kenyan Drake signed the $8.5 million transition tag to become Arizona's unquestioned bell cow.
Where are we now: Pick 109 (9.02). Not much except Edmonds picked up steam amongst fantasy football influencers. Kliff Kingsbury did refer to him as a starting running back in the league recently and Kenyan Drake's appearance in a walking boot at Monday's practice figures to further boost Edmonds' draft stock.
Are we sure we have it right? Yes.
Everyone remembers the 27-126-3 rushing line Edmonds hung on the Giants last season. But he had been making the most of his carries in the weeks preceding his breakout game. If not for a poorly-timed hamstring injury, maybe the Drake trade never happens, and Edmonds is the one with an early-second round ADP. Kingsbury's assertion Edmonds will have a role on offense alongside Drake should come as no surprise. Drake has never been a feature back at any level of football and is already dealing with an injury, even if it is minor. If his foot becomes an issue or Drake otherwise can't hack it in his first full season as a feature back, Edmonds would instantly slot in as an every-week RB1.
Damien Harris
Where we started: Pick 203 (16.11). Wait, Damien Harris is still on the Patriots?
Where are we now: Pick 124 (11.04). Sony Michel is uncertain for Week 1 after undergoing foot surgery in May. Harris reportedly looks like the best running back in Patriots camp and has become the front-runner for lead-back duties in Week 1.
Are we sure we have it right? No.
Nick Saban presumably played Harris ahead of Josh Jacobs at Alabama for a reason. He's a no-nonsense, physical runner Saban's buddy, Bill Belichick, has shown he values in the past, which makes Harris' red-shirt rookie season all the more puzzling (Mea culpa!)
There is nothing wrong with spending a speculative pick in the double-digit rounds on a solid runner and pass-catcher tied to Cam Newton and the Patriots brain trust. But at the risk of sounding cliche, who knows what to make of this backfield?
The Patriots are holding out hope Michel can be ready for Week 1. James White isn't relinquishing his receiving back role any time soon. Jack-of-all-trades Rex Burkhead has been busy in practices. And while it's a longshot, maybe Lamar Miller has something left in the tank in his age-29 season. To top it all off, Newton is a mortal lock to poach a handful of goal-line touchdowns from Harris, or whoever emerges as New England's lead runner. There are too many paths to failure to trust Harris at an ADP that probably hasn't topped out yet.
Terry McLaurin
Where we started: Pick 65 (6.05). McLaurin had an impressive rookie season, but the wide receiver position is deep, and Dwayne Haskins can't be trusted to support an early-round pass-catcher.
Where are we now: Pick 47 (4.11). The top fantasy football and wide receiver analysts in the industry are in unanimous agreement. McLaurin is a highly-skilled player with little standing between him and at least 130 targets.
Are we sure we have it right? Yes.
McLaurin was easy to see coming as a screaming value back at the beginning of July. His ADP finally caught up but has settled in the correct range. He's got a top-10 ceiling regardless of who plays quarterback for the Football Team.
Jonathan Taylor
Where we started: Pick 42 (4.06). Taylor was the top-rated running back prospect by most analysts before the NFL Draft but landed on a team where Marlon Mack was already the entrenched starter.
Where are we now: Pick 29 (3.05). Even Mack thinks Taylor is a beast opposing defenses need to account for right now.
Are we sure we have it right? Mega-yes.
Taylor is the best running back prospect to enter the league since Saquon Barkley, who was the best running back to enter the league since Ezekiel Elliott, who was the best running back to enter the league since Adrian Peterson. Whatever you think of the "generational talent" label, these guys don't typically fail, and they tend to make it known they've arrived early in their rookie seasons.
It's almost too easy to draw this parallel.
Mack : Chester Taylor :: Jonathan Taylor : AP https://t.co/6k4acTFz9w
— Phil (@PhilFBG) August 18, 2020
Entering the 2007 season, Taylor was coming off a 1,200-yard campaign as Minnesota's starter, which held Peterson's rookie year ADP in check (4.07). Taylor's ADP settled in Round 7 with most fantasy GMs expecting a split workload. It took Peterson all of one game to pile up 163 total yards and pull ahead of Taylor permanently. Peterson ended the year as the overall RB3.
The Colts' incumbent, Mack, who rushed for 1,091 yards and eight touchdowns in 2019, is also going in Round 7 this year. He has done nothing to lose his starting job, but teams don't trade up for players like Jonathan Taylor to sit him on the bench behind a replacement-level talent like Mack. Yes, Indianapolis head coach Frank Reich has called Mack the team's nominal starter, but (Chester) Taylor received the same veteran deference in Minnesota 13 years ago.
Jonathan Taylor is as advertised. He runs a sub-4.4 forty-yard dash at 226 pounds and leaves Wisconsin with one of the most impressive statistical resumes ever for a collegiate running back. Taylor's rare blend of speed, power, vision, and patience will make him unstoppable in the Colts' power zone-blocking scheme behind one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the league. Mack could live up to his ADP the same way Chester Taylor did years ago. But you'll feel silly at the end of the season if Mack is the reason you passed on Taylor's high-end RB1 potential in Round 3.
