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Why You Should Worship at the Altar of Chris Godwin

Sometimes fantasy analysis is hard, but sometimes it’s easy. Recommending Chris Godwin as a receiver worth targeting is decidedly on the easy side of the ledger. The 23-year old enters his third season with everything in place for a breakout campaign.

• Unmistakable Talent
• A Proven System
• Expanded Opportunity

There are no sure things in football, but Godwin profiles as a low risk, high reward star-in-the-making, and should be a primary target in the fifth or sixth round of 10- and 12-team drafts.

Unmistakable Talent

Godwin is a prototypical receiver. He’s 6-foot-1, 209 pounds with 4.4-40 speed and a 10-foot catch radius. Tampa Bay selected him out of Penn State two seasons ago in the third round, and he was a contributor as a rookie (34 receptions) but understandably played behind Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson. Footballguys own Matt Waldman viewed Godwin as one of the most promising receivers in the 2017 draft class. From Waldman’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio:

"Godwin is the sleeper of the class who could earn playing time early and outproduce some of the bigger names ahead of him on this list. He has a good athletic profile, comfort with physical play, and solid technique that should only improve with a dedication to his craft. ...Godwin routinely earned separation against press corners. … He recognizes hot route opportunities and was on the same page as his quarterback to change his route based on the pre-snap position of defenders. … Because he has the speed to win downfield, Godwin successfully baits defenders with the possibility of the deep game and then works back to the ball on intermediate routes. …Godwin’s quickness and physicality are expressed well in his game. …Godwin appears supremely comfortable winning the ball in tight coverage. …Hard contact or the possibility of it doesn’t faze Godwin. …When he gets into the open field, he can sustain separation with his speed.”

Last year, in spite of sharing the limelight with four other targets, Godwin delivered a top-25 fantasy season. He caught 59 receptions for 842 yards and seven touchdowns. It’s also worth noting his catch rate (62%) doesn’t paint a perfect picture. While a 62% catch rate is hardly concerning, it’s understated by the relative inaccuracy of Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick last year. Accounting for uncatchable balls, Godwin had a true catch rate of 85% -- among the best in the league.

A Proven System

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enticed Bruce Arians out of retirement, in no small part because of what Arians believes is possible with Jameis Winston and his receiving corps. Arians’ reputation precedes him, most recently turning the Arizona Cardinals into an offensive dynamo. Although Arians’ offenses haven’t always finished at the top of the league standings, no one questions his ability to get the most out of the roster. One of the reasons his peers respect Arians is the creativity and versatility of his scheme. He’s not the kind of coach who’s beholden to one structure. He adapts to his personnel.

We should acknowledge that offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich is expected to open the season as the play-caller, which does add uncertainty. Leftwich called plays for part of last season in Arizona but is inexperienced by any measure.

Expanded Opportunity

The equation for fantasy success is simple – Ability + Opportunity = Fantasy Success.

Godwin has already shown the ability, but through two seasons his opportunity was suboptimal thanks to the prior coaching staff’s preference for spreading the ball around. Godwin had to share targets with Mike Evans (deservedly so), Adam Humphries, DeSean Jackson, and tight end O.J. Howard.

2018 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Target Distribution

It’s exceedingly hard to be a top-25 fantasy receiver with 15% (or lower) target share. The great news is that’s not a concern for Godwin in 2019. In fact, he should see his target share balloon. Adam Humphries (104 targets in 2018) signed with the Tennessee Titans, and DeSean Jackson (75 targets) returned to the Philadelphia Eagles. While Godwin won’t be the beneficiary of all of those 194 vacated targets, he’ll see the largest increase. Even if Godwin only gets 20% of those targets, he’ll be in line for a 130+ target season. At his per-target output, that’s a must-start No. 2 fantasy receiver.

"He's Never Coming Off The Field"

Don’t take my word for it, listen to Arians. Coaches tend to overstate things, particularly in the offseason. But rarely do they get as specific as Arians was in his promise of turning Godwin into a megastar. At the NFL Annual Meetings, Arians proclaimed Godwin as a potential 100-catch receiver:

"I think Chris Godwin is going to be close to a 100-catch guy, especially because I think he can play in the slot," Arians said at the Annual League Meeting in Phoenix this week, per the team's official website. "He's never coming off the field."

The Myth of the No. 2 Receiver Ceiling

The biggest pushback on Godwin’s outlook is Mike Evans. Critics worry Evans, who commands a vast target share and will continue do to so, limits the upside for anyone else on the roster. Luckily for Godwin (and you, as a soon-to-be Godwin owner), that’s pure nonsense. Just last season, both Adam Humphries (WR24) and Godwin (WR25) finished in the top 25 in spite of Evans ranking 9th. And that’s not a fluke. It’s quite common for a pair of receivers from the same team to finish in the top 20.

Top-20 Receiving Duos (2014-2018)

Over the last five years, 16 receiver tandems have delivered top-20 fantasy seasons. Given the expected volume of the Buccaneers passing offense this year – Evans’ projected fantasy dominance in no way impedes Godwin’s breakout. Importantly, Evans’ elite talent and his reputation guarantee he’ll see the preponderance of double coverage, leaving Godwin singled up in most situations.

Stats and Projections

Other Thoughts

ProFootballFocus' Jeff Ratcliffe cites Godwin as one of the value receivers due for a breakout:

"DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries are now out of the way, and Godwin is locked in as the No. 2 option in Tampa. Add to that the fact that the Bucs project to be one of the most explosive passing offenses in the league, and you have the makings of a fantasy breakout. That said, Evans is the clear top target, so it’s best to consider Godwin and upside WR2 option with top-15 potential at the high end of his fantasy range."

FanDuel's Max Staley views Godwin as one of three breakout favorites:

"Chris Godwin was effective in limited snaps last season and he has a chance to break out now that DeSean Jackson is back in Philadelphia. Godwin had three games with at least 100 yards receiving last season and also established himself as a red-zone weapon, tallying seven touchdowns. While Jameis Winston's inconsistency as a passer is potentially troubling, Godwin could be in for a career year as the No. 2 WR in Bruce Arians' high-octane offense in Tampa."

The Footballguys Staff debates a trio of promising young receivers: Chris Godwin, Calvin Ridley, and Sammy Watkins:

DEVIN KNOTTS -- "Chris Godwin. I'll take the youngest receiver in the group. Godwin who is a full year younger than Ridley has all the tools to continue to grow into his role that he established last season as the second receiver in Tampa. With very little talent surrounding him with the departure of DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries, Godwin will be a primary focal point of this offense and provide week-to-week consistency."

JUSTIN HOWE -- "It's Godwin - I'm highest on him (WR17) staff-wide. He's a physical specimen who wins downfield and in the red zone, and he'll be playing primarily from Bruce Arians' slot. He's not Larry Fitzgerald, but he'll still dominate non-Mike Evans looks across the field. There's realistic upside here for an 80-1,200-9 type of line."

Twitter: @FBGWood