Winning on FantasyDraft - Week 13

Photo: Imagn Images

Footballguys has partnered with FantasyDraft and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FantasyDraft's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FantasyDraft's prices:

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

• Everything is sorted by position
• I have converted my projections to FantasyDraft Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
• The Price column reflects FantasyDraft's Week 13 Price
• The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
• H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
• ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
• In the 2017 Cracking DFS books, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
• I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position. Players in blue represent potential boosts due to others scratching.

Expected Team Points

Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Here are the eight NFL teams expected of scoring at least 24 points on this slate. Listed by descending expected team points:

• Kansas City Chiefs (vs OAK) - 30.75 points
• Philadelphia Eagles (at MIA) - 27.50 points
• Baltimore Ravens (vs SF) - 25.75 points
• Green Bay Packers (at NYG) - 25.50 points
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at JAC) - 25.00 points
• Los Angeles Rams (at ARI) - 25.00 points
• Carolina Panthers (vs WAS) - 24.75 points
• New England Patriots (at HOU) - 24.50 points

Situations that stand out to me this week

• TE Jack Doyle ($6,400) - The injury to TE Eric Ebron pushes Doyle into a nearly fulltime role at the position for the Colts. The Colts have targeted the tight end position 102 times in their 12 games. At just $6,400, Doyle presents maximimum upside and should reach cash value even if he does not score. It's the free-square of the week.
  
  
• RB LeSean McCoy ($9,000) - The Chiefs will be without Damien Williams on Sunday, but remain big favorites at home in a battle for the AFC West Division. McCoy will split carries with Darrel Williams, but he is the better option to see the most snaps. At $9,900, he is priced way too cheap for the volume of snaps he is in store for.
  
  
• RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR ($19,700) - His price is not for the faint of heart, but McCaffrey has delivered 137.1 fantasy points in the last four contests. As big home favorites, this doesn't look like the week to go against the grain with McCaffrey. Look for price savings elsewhere.
  
  
• TE Dallas Goedert, PHI ($8,100)( - Zach Ertz is a game-time decision and only partially practiced on Friday this week. If Ertz scratches, Goedert will be a strong play at tight end.
  
  

Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest RATIO)

• QB Lamar Jackson / TE Nick Boyle (Cost = $18,800, FP = 31.3, Ratio = 1.66)
• RB Jamaal Williams / TD Green Bay Packers (Cost = $15,300, FP = 24.9, Ratio = 1.63)
• RB Miles Sanders / TD Philadelphia Eagles (Cost = $17,000, FP = 27.5, Ratio = 1.62)
• RB Christian McCaffrey / TD Carolina Panthers (Cost = $26,000, FP = 41.5, Ratio = 1.6)
• QB Lamar Jackson / TE Mark Andrews (Cost = $23,500, FP = 36.5, Ratio = 1.55)
• QB Lamar Jackson / TE Hayden Hurst (Cost = $18,600, FP = 28.9, Ratio = 1.55)
• RB LeSean McCoy / TD Kansas City Chiefs (Cost = $14600, FP = 22.3, Ratio = 1.53)
• QB Carson Wentz / TE Dallas Goedert (Cost = $19,000, FP = 28.9, Ratio = 1.52)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II II / TE Travis Kelce (Cost = $27,900, FP = 42.4, Ratio = 1.52)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II II / WR Sammy Watkins (Cost = $24,900, FP = 37.8, Ratio = 1.52)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II II / WR Tyreek Hill (Cost = $30,200, FP = 45.5, Ratio = 1.51)
• QB Lamar Jackson / WR Willie Snead IV (Cost = $20,600, FP = 30.8, Ratio = 1.50)
• QB Jared Goff / WR Robert Woods (Cost = $21,200, FP = 31.6, Ratio = 1.49)
• QB Lamar Jackson / WR Marquise Brown (Cost = $24,100, FP = 36.0, Ratio = 1.49)
• QB Ryan Fitzpatrick / WR DeVante Parker (Cost = $21,200, FP = 30.9, Ratio = 1.46)
• QB Aaron Rodgers / WR Davante Adams (Cost = $26,200, FP = 38.1, Ratio = 1.45)
• QB Carson Wentz / TE Zach Ertz (Cost = $24,000, FP = 34.8, Ratio = 1.45)
• QB Jameis Winston / WR Chris Godwin (Cost = $26,600, FP = 38.6, Ratio = 1.45)
• QB Lamar Jackson / WR Seth Roberts (Cost = $19,600, FP = 28.5, Ratio = 1.45)
• QB Jameis Winston / WR Mike Evans (Cost = $26,700, FP = 38.1, Ratio = 1.43)

Players for GPP differentiation

• QBs: Deshaun Watson, Andy Dalton, Philip Rivers, Ryan Tannehill, Ryan Fitzpatrick
• RBs: LeSean McCoy, Ronald Jones II, Darrel Williams, Austin Ekeler, Mark Ingram
• WRs: Tim Patrick, Sterling Shepard, Jarvis Landry, Auden Tate, Zach Pascal
• TEs: Tyler Higbee, Nick Boyle, George Kittle, Tyler Eifert, Vance McDonald
• Def: Chargers, Colts, Bengals, Broncos, Redskins

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash Projected Points = (158.7)

• QB Lamar Jackson, BAL - $13,600
• RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR - $19,700
• RB Leonard Fournette, JAC - $14,100
• TE Jack Doyle, IND - $6,400
• WR Courtland Sutton, DEN - $10,200
• WR Robert Woods, LAR - $9,900
• Flex: RB LeSean McCoy, KC - $9,000
• Flex: RB Miles Sanders, PHI - $10,100
• TD Carolina Panthers - $6,900