Winning on FantasyDraft - Week 11

Photo: Imagn Images

Footballguys has partnered with FantasyDraft and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FantasyDraft's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FantasyDraft's prices:

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

• Everything is sorted by position
• I have converted my projections to FantasyDraft Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
• The Price column reflects FantasyDraft's Week 11 Price
• The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
• H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
• ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
• In the 2017 Cracking DFS books, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
• I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position. Players in blue represent potential boosts due to others scratching.

Expected Team Points

Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Here are the eight NFL teams expected of scoring at least 24 points on this slate. Listed by descending expected team points:

• Oakland Raiders (vs CIN) - 30.00 points
• Baltimore Ravens (vs HOU) - 28.00 points
• New Orleans Saints (at TB) - 27.50 points
• San Francisco 49ers (vs ARI) - 27.50 points
• Dallas Cowboys (at DET) - 27.00 points
• Carolina Panthers (vs ATL) - 27.00 points
• Minnesota Vikings (vs DEN) - 25.25 points
• New England Patriots (at PHI) - 24.25 points

and two near misses

• Houston Texans (at BAL) - 23.50 points
• Buffalo Bills (at MIA) - 23.50 points

Situations that stand out to me this week

• Dallas Passing Offense vs Detroit Passing Defense - The Cowboys have generated 280 passing yards and 3.2 touchdowns through the air over the last 4 weeks. The Lions can't stop the pass and have yielded 298 yards and 2.3 touchdowns through the air over the same timeframe.
  
  
• New Orleans Passing Offense vs Tampa Bay Passing Defense - The Saints have averaged 319 yards and 1.7 passing touchdowns per game since week 7 while the Buccaneers are yielding 298 yards and 3.7 passing touchdowns during the same time frame. Drew Brees is back and should be able to play catch with WR Michael Thomas all day.
  
  
• The Bengals Defense is nonexistent - Since week 7, the Bengals are yielding 440 combined yards and 3.0 touchdowns a game. RB Josh Jacobs ($13,900) is in a prime spot to feast at home in Oakland.
  
  
• The 49ers are down a lot of bodies, but are still 10 point favorites - They look to be without TE George Kittle, RB Matt Breida, and WR Emmanuel Sanders. WR Deebo Samuel ($7,800) is a cheap option that should be featured often against soft coverage.
  
  
• Carolina has been gashed by the run - Running backs have scored ten touchdowns against the Panthers over the last 3 weeks. Atlanta's running game has been non-existent as of late and they will be forced to use Brian Hill in this contest. At just $10,200, Brian Hill might be the spark the Falcons need to get their running game going.
  
  
• Lamar Jackson vs Deshaun Watson - This feels like a game that could easily turn into a track meet. The Texans defense is yielding 307 yards passing and 2.3 touchdowns through the air since week 7. Lamar Jackson has posted two perfect quarterback rating games already this season.
  
  

Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest RATIO)

• RB Miles Sanders / TD Philadelphia Eagles (Cost = $12,300, FP = 23.3, Ratio = 1.89)
• RB Kalen Ballage / TD Miami Dolphins (Cost = $12,100, FP = 20.3, Ratio = 1.68)
• QB Kyle Allen / WR D.J. Moore (Cost = $21,500, FP = 35.5, Ratio = 1.65)
• QB Deshaun Watson / TE Jordan Akins (Cost = $17,100, FP = 27.8, Ratio = 1.63)
• QB Kyle Allen / TE Greg Olsen (Cost = $18,200, FP = 29.6, Ratio = 1.63)
• QB Lamar Jackson / WR Marquise Brown (Cost = $24,000, FP = 39.0, Ratio = 1.63)
• QB Deshaun Watson / TE Darren Fells (Cost = $18,200, FP = 29.2, Ratio = 1.60)
• QB Lamar Jackson / TE Nick Boyle (Cost = $19,800, FP = 31.7, Ratio = 1.60)
• QB Dak Prescott / WR Randall Cobb (Cost = $20,500, FP = 32.6, Ratio = 1.59)
• QB Lamar Jackson / TE Hayden Hurst (Cost = $18,900, FP = 30.1, Ratio = 1.59)
• RB Tevin Coleman / TD San Francisco 49ers (Cost = $18,000, FP = 28.5, Ratio = 1.58)
• QB Deshaun Watson / WR DeAndre Hopkins (Cost = $27,000, FP = 42.5, Ratio = 1.57)
• QB Jameis Winston / WR Mike Evans (Cost = $26,300, FP = 40.8, Ratio = 1.55)
• QB Dak Prescott / WR Amari Cooper (Cost = $26,500, FP = 40.3, Ratio = 1.52)
• QB Deshaun Watson / WR Kenny Stills (Cost = $21,200, FP = 32.3, Ratio = 1.52)
• RB Dalvin Cook / TD Minnesota Vikings (Cost = $24,200, FP = 36.9, Ratio = 1.52)
• QB Jameis Winston / WR Chris Godwin (Cost = $25,500, FP = 38.4, Ratio = 1.51)
• RB Josh Jacobs / TD Oakland Raiders (Cost = $20,600, FP = 31.1, Ratio = 1.51)
• QB Drew Brees / WR Michael Thomas (Cost = $30,300, FP = 45.4, Ratio = 1.50)
• QB Jimmy Garoppolo / WR Deebo Samuel (Cost = $20,400, FP = 30.0, Ratio = 1.47)
• QB Lamar Jackson / TE Mark Andrews (Cost = $26,800, FP = 39.4, Ratio = 1.47)
• QB Matt Ryan / WR Julio Jones (Cost = $25,800, FP = 37.8, Ratio = 1.47)

Players for GPP differentiation

• QBs: Jameis Winston, Jeff Driskel, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, Tom Brady
• RBs: Miles Sanders, Joe Mixon, Tarik Cohen, Ronald Jones II, Raheem Mostert
• WRs: Courtland Sutton, Terry McLaurin, Demaryious Thomas, DeVante Parker, Randall Cobb
• TEs: Dallas Goedert, Gerald Everett, TJ Hockenson, Noah Fant, Darren Fells
• Def: Minnesota, Philadelphia, Chicago, Denver, Indianapolis

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash Projected Points = (162.3)

• QB Lamar Jackson, BAL - $13,900
• RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR - $19,400
• RB Miles Sanders, PHI - $8,100
• TE Zach Ertz, PHI - $9,300
• WR Michael Thomas, NO - $16,900
• WR Deebo Samuel, SF - $7,800
• Flex: WR D.J. Moore, CAR - $11,000
• Flex: RB Kalen Ballage, MIA - $7,900
• TD Washington - $5,300

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - CAR stack + fade McCaffrey Projected Points = (158.9)

• QB Kyle Allen, CAR - $10,500
• RB Dalvin Cook, MIN - $17,100
• RB Miles Sanders, PHI - $8,100
• TE Zach Ertz, PHI - $9,300
• WR Michael Thomas, NO - $16,900
• WR D.J. Moore, CAR - $11,000
• Flex: RB Josh Jacobs, OAK - $13,900
• Flex: RB Kalen Ballage, MIA - $7,900
• TD Washington - $5,300