As of press time, neither running back Ezekiel Elliott nor running back Melvin Gordon has reported to training camp. There seems to be more worry about Gordon missing game action than Elliott, but we do not have a definitive word on when (or if) either player will report.
First, we wondered how much concern there was in the community about Elliott and Gordon not being on the field when the season begins.
Ezekiel Elliott Status Poll 8.5.19
— Joe Bryant (@Football_Guys) August 5, 2019
How many games will Elliot miss this year due to holdout?
Melvin Gordon Status Poll 8.5.19
— Joe Bryant (@Football_Guys) August 5, 2019
How many games will Gordon miss this year due to holdout?
Then, we asked our staff for their thoughts on these two players.
August is drafting season, so how do you approach these two backs in your drafts? Are you worried about them missing games? What round is a good spot for each one of them? Are there dates in August where your concern will increase? If you are drafting right now, what are you doing with these two backs?
Dan Hindery
I want to focus in on what I am doing in actual best ball drafts that have been taking place during this time of uncertainty. Here is what I am doing on DRAFT, which has 0.5 PPR scoring.
I dropped Ezekiel Elliott from No. 4 to No. 5 overall, behind David Johnson. I'm operating on the assumption there's something like an 80% chance he misses minimal or no time at all. Elliott is such a big weekly scorer there is a decent gap between him and No. 6 (DeAndre Hopkins or Davante Adams) in .5 PPR when on the field, so I'm willing to take the risk for now. But it's getting close between Elliott and the top WRs and if you start bumping the odds from 20% up to a 30% chance the holdout drags fairly deep into the season, then he would fall pretty far, pretty fast because I don't see a big gap between Elliott (given the holdout risk) and the guys going at the top of the 2nd as it is. Any more negative reports about the negotiations and I will hit a tipping point where I would drop Elliott to the mid-2nd round behind the top tier of wide receivers and a few other running backs like LeVeon Bell and James Conner.
I've been all over Tony Pollard in the late rounds for a couple of months now. In fact, he is my highest-owned running back in best ball and on nearly half of my rosters. Even if Elliott signs soon, Pollard should he put up Giovani Bernard numbers in a reserve role because Dallas seems set on getting him touches as the third-down back. At Pollard’s current ADP (190) you are getting any "2018 James Conner" holdout upside completely free. Basically, zero risks plus a small chance of hitting a home run.
I'm passing on Gordon in the third-round because I am of the view there's something like a 60 or 70% chance the holdout drags into the regular season, probably all the way to mid-year. The other 3rd-round RB options are too attractive to take the risk. Backs like Kerryon Johnson have a good shot to put up numbers within 1 or 2 PPG of Gordon, so why take the risk selecting Gordon ahead of them? If Gordon’s ADP ever falls to the 4th (I think it will), I would start buying because he could be a big difference-maker with fresh legs in the fantasy playoffs. For me, the reward would outweigh the risk when comparing Gordon to the tier of running backs that includes Mark Ingram, David Montgomery, and Phillip Lindsay. At that point, I would turn into a buyer.
Austin Ekeler (7th round) and Justin Jackson (12th round) are fairly priced at their current ADPs. I prefer guys like Miles Sanders and Curtis Samuel over Ekeler so I'm not drafting him often but I do think he's worth taking there. Ekeler should have solid value no matter the starter but it is hard to see him posting RB1 numbers in any scenario. Jackson has a shot at RB2 numbers while Gordon is out but I'm assuming he'll be mostly a non-factor by the fantasy playoffs if Gordon returns, so the 12th-round seems fair.
Ryan Hester
Even setting contractual situations and seasons accrued towards free agency aside for a moment, there are still a couple of reasons that I'm more worried about Gordon missing games than Elliott. First, the Chargers have shown a propensity for being stingier with money than Dallas, making an extension offer likely less attractive. Second, the Chargers have better running backs depth than Dallas does. Philip Rivers has already acknowledged as much by saying, "we love Melvin, but we’re going to go with what we’ve got. It’s a pretty dang good group.”
In terms of where they fall in fantasy drafts, I've dropped Elliott from the top tier of four running backs down to the 9-11 overall range to hedge against the potential that he misses a couple of games. If drafting before Elliott has signed, I'm assuming that he shows up or is signed to an extension eventually and misses a couple of games at worst. Dallas is a team with championship aspirations, and while Jerry Jones said he doesn't need a leading rusher to win the Super Bowl, Elliott is still a key piece for them.
With Gordon, I've dropped him much further. He's in the mid-to-late 20s among running backs now. Look at our PPR ADP list, the point at which I'd start gambling on Gordon is right around David Montgomery, who is an interesting case because he's another player whose contributions are likely to be back-loaded this season as a rookie who could have to earn his way to a larger workload.
This may seem like a long way to drop Gordon, but consider the following that contributed to my opinion: (1) I was lower on Gordon than most even before the holdout started, (2) it's not a guarantee that he steps back into his assumed role immediately after signing, (3) drafting Gordon during a holdout is the loss of bench flexibility that comes with holding on to a player for up to eight weeks while he accumulates zeroes.
Jason Wood
I view them quite differently, and it starts with their value under optimal circumstances. Ezekiel Elliott is a consensus top-four pick without these holdout issues, and he's many people's No. 1 overall choice. I had him No. 2 (behind Saquon Barkley) prior to the holdout drama. A 16-game season from Elliott is so much better than what I can expect from anyone outside of Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, and Alvin Kamara, that it's HARD to drive him out of my first-round rankings. He's more than a tier better than the guys I would be taking ahead of him.
Whereas with Gordon, he's clearly deserving of a first-round selection based on prior achievements, but even in 16 games, he's part of a larger tier of feature backs where you can nitpick one versus the other. The difference is, I'm far more sensitive to even minor adjustments to Gordon's projected playing time because there is a litany of attractive alternatives who can and will vault him on draft day.
As to their respective hold outs, I do wonder if we're all making mountains out of molehills because of LeVeon Bell. Bell did something we've never seen before, and because it was VERY PAINFUL, a lot of us are being extra cautious with this year's hold outs.
But as a finance guy by trade, I'm not sure many NFL athletes have the mental and fiscal fortitude to do what Bell did. They can talk tough in early August. They can posture through their agents. They can miss preseason practices and games. But are they actually going to miss game checks? Do Melvin Gordon and Ezekiel Elliott have enough money in the bank to forego millions of dollars? I doubt they do. Why? Because we know the vast majority of NFL players are overexposed. They live lives based on an assumption of future wealth that rarely plays out.
So, if forced to take a stand, I don't believe either running back will miss more than a game or two into the regular season.
But, since we tend to advocate risk aversion in the first two or three rounds; and then an almost pure focus on upside in the mid-to-late rounds, I still think it's prudent to discount both players to some degree.
For me, I'm drafting Elliott in the second round, if he falls. If I'm in a 12-team league and have the twelfth pick, I'm taking him at the turn every time. If I have an earlier pick, I would probably select Elliott as early as 1.07 after Barkley, McCaffrey, Kamara, Adams, Hopkins, and David Johnson.
As to Gordon, the fact he's dealt with injuries and missed time -- added to the reputation Chargers ownership has for being cheap and that Gordon's pool of comparable players is larger -- I'm passing on him until the early third round.
Devin Knotts
I'm likely going to have no Melvin Gordon this season simply because I have him ranked too low (right now RB22). I think he is much closer to LeVeon Bell than what Elliott is as the team is not committed to him long-term. There is still value in Justin Jackson and Austin Ekeler as their ADP has not increased nearly enough.
Jerry Jones is not going to let Ezekiel Elliott leave in his prime and has a history of running backs holding out, paying them, and then winning the Super Bowl with Emmitt Smith.
Elliott has significant leverage and knows that he won't be able to get nearly as much money if he waits until he is a free agent in 2021. He is in his age 24 season, the team is in position to be a Super Bowl contending team, and Elliott plays a big part of that. If I can get Elliott with the 5th pick or later, there is a ton of value.
Andy Hicks
This is a situation where you need to read what the team feels about each situation. Dallas needs Ezekiel Elliott, have little to no depth behind him and are desperate for a Super Bowl run. Their conundrum is that Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper also have contract needs and there may not be enough money to go around. Knowing Jerry Jones all three will be signed and a big press conference with all three players will be a spectacular media event. This situation may drag on through the preseason and maybe at worst case scenario a week or two into the season, but Elliott will play and be the focal point of this offense. Elliott does not move down in my rankings at all and unless there are major negative developments that will remain the case.
The Chargers, on the other hand, have offered Melvin Gordon the equivalent of a dead fish handshake deal that no self-respecting player in his position should dignify. It is obvious they do not value Gordon long term and it is easy to see why. They feel they have decent coverage in Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson and Gordon can pout, get used for over 300 touches and take a mediocre deal next year or hope a trade can be worked out where he can use what little leverage he has now. The frugal Chargers are not going to waste money on a player they don’t rate highly at the position. Gordon is in a real tricky situation and I would be passing on him until better news arrives. If he gets traded, we can re-evaluate. It is unlikely he reports to the Chargers until well into the season, so at this stage, it is a case of who blinks first. I’m betting it’s not the Chargers.
Keith Roberts
In current best ball drafts, I am taking Ezekiel Elliott as RB5. I am not putting stock in the argument of him missing games. Elliott is critical to the success of the Cowboys as their offense is most successful when running through him. Both he and the Cowboys are incentivized to get a deal done to avoid games being missed, and the terms surrounding his current contract point to it making sense to get a deal done. Given the upside of having Elliott on my roster, the risk of keeping him in the first round is worth taking given the reward he will present with 16 games of service. I cannot justify dropping him into the second tier of running backs closer to the Round 1/2 turn.
Melvin Gordon is a different story given all the different circumstances surrounding his situation. Prior to any holdout talk, Gordon was already firmly in the top of the second round for me given the competition for touches with Austin Ekeler and (less so) Justin Jackson. Most reports have indicated the Chargers are not inclined to give Gordon the deal he is seeking, and the Chargers are perfectly content moving forward with their young talent in Ekeler and Jackson. While Gordon may be worth what he is asking for to other NFL franchises, it appears he is clearly not worth the cost given these other options available to the Chargers.
As of today, I have Gordon as RB20 and would draft him no sooner than the fourth round. The options available in the third round are in much safer situations with clear roles and upside, making it tough to pass on them given the uncertainty surrounding Gordon. Taking Gordon early in the fourth round may also be a stretch depending on which positions I drafted near the Round 1/2 turn. From a roster construction perspective, Gordon would be a much better fit if he fell to late fourth, given I would have had likely landed top-tier running back with that high first-round pick. I have yet to see Gordon fall beyond the third round in best ball drafts though.
Matt Waldman
Saquon Barkley has the most individual upside at the position. LeVeon Bell, Alvin Kamara, and Christian McCaffrey all offer tremendous versatility and baseline productivity that's tough to beat.
Nick Chubb is poised to join this list--and perhaps sit atop it if his offensive line is simply as decent as it was last year. However, I'm not the least bit concerned about Ezekiel Elliott's contract negotiation because with no apologies to the excellent backs mentioned above, Elliott is the best back in the NFL, and Jerry Jones knows it.
Although Elliott's off-the-field immaturity has smudged a sterling on-field resume, the Cowboys understand that opposing defenses must account for Elliott in ways that matter greatly in the game. These physical, mental and conceptual reactions from the defense in response to Elliott are more "microscopic" than data's macro perspective is capable of taking into accurate account.
The fact that Jones is talking about trying to work out a deal that gives Elliott "Bell money" instead of "Todd Gurley money," is an attempt to negotiate a deal within the same tier of players but within as comfortable of a spot for the Cowboys' future financials as possible. There will be more posturing as both sides push the boundary as far as possible without truly hurting the team.
Elliott keeps himself in tremendous condition and he'll be ready for camp and the preseason. If I'm drafting No.1 overall, I'm not going to get too worked up about Elliott missing August. I will take him because he's the best back in the league with possibly the best offensive line.
Center Travis Frederick is back, which makes the pre-snap adjustments and communications sharper than last year. The center is the anchor of the offensive line and so many plays depend on not only his communication and cohesion with his unit but also his ability to work in tandem on double-teams, pulls, and execute the widest variety of blocks in a playbook.
Although not officially an offensive lineman, if you don't count Jason Witten's return as a positive for this unit then you're not considering how integral he's been to the off-tackle and perimeter running game. Witten's presence as an underneath receiver also reinforces the run-pass bind that linebackers and safeties must respect from a player with Witten's passing game prowess.
Elliott is the glue that ties it all together because he's adept at every type of run and he's an accomplished weapon in the passing game. Although the Cowboys helped Darren McFadden earn 1,000 yards with its line, McFadden often needed to stop midway through plays and ask for directions to the next crease when it was directly in his line of vision. Elliott not only maximizes huge creases in ways other backs cannot but he also creates positive yardage in situations where losses would otherwise be imminent.
When you have a chain-mover, pass receiver, big-play threat, and high-volume creative force in a singular player, you pay that man. You also draft that man No.1 overall when the surrounding talent is good enough that his upside is as high as Barkley and his floor is probably 30%-35% higher than Barkley's--or back not named McCaffrey.
This negotiation is really about "just how much in the elite tier," which means the process is already two-thirds of the way complete even if the posturing is noisy.
Gordon is in a far more difficult position because both sides not only believe significantly different things but they're each sold that they're absolutely right about their respective stances. Gordon's yardage totals, versatility, and scoring are all within reach of the elite tier of running backs--if not actually there.
He believes he's at the pinnacle of his position and he has people around him reinforcing it. He's even trained with an individual who has elite clientele including pros like Bell, Antonio Brown, Xavien Howard, and Odell Beckham. He works in these circles, some of his production is in this realm, and he's probably told that he's this good.
The potential problem is that there are compelling arguments that Gordon is a notch below the elite tier at his position. Even if Gordon argues that health issues were the only obstacles to elite production, injuries will be used against him--especially when his production during healthy years wasn't unimpeachably elite.
The Chargers know that the player most integral to the offense is Philip Rivers and the two teammates who create the biggest mismatches for Rivers are Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry. Gordon is valuable but not irreplaceable. Unlike Elliott, Gordon's rate of explosive plays are smaller, he doesn't create with the same yards-per-carry efficiency as Elliott, and he is not the breakaway threat that he was at Wisconsin.
Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson are players on the rise and when used in tandem can provide similar value to the offense as Gordon. Because both can win as receivers and they're shifty between the tackles, they are interchangeable and provide an offensive continuity that won't tip-off defenses to the game plan when one is on the field instead of the other.
If this tandem doesn't pay long-term dividends, adding a rookie back of merit will be cheaper than re-signing Gordon and likely yield similar production. To make the argument for Gordon more troubling, there are several backs who can deliver between the tackles with enough skill to keep the offense productive this year. Among several I could mention, three come to mind immediately:
Kenneth Dixon isn't a proven player but his running back's coach in Baltimore named him the best pure runner on the roster who just hasn't be available enough to earn every-down playing time. He's on the bubble and could be a cheap addition for the Chargers in September.
Spencer Ware had ankle surgery this week and should be ready by Week 5 or 6. If the Colts to claim him, the Chargers are highly familiar with the veteran who is an excellent option between the tackles as well as a third-down option.
T.J. Yeldon might be the best option who could become available because the Bills have a stocked depth chart. Yeldon fits what the Chargers like to do with its offense in the run game as well as throwing the ball. He has proven that he's an excellent third-down option with enough size to handle a workload given to a lead back.
As of early August, I expect Gordon to miss at least two regular-season games based on what we've read about the negotiation/holdout. As each week passes, I will consider adding another game to the mix.
Unless the Chargers lose both Ekeler and Jackson and these backs aren't available or underwhelm, I don't see the Chargers at Gordon's doorstep with hat in hand this fall. Gordon will have to capitulate and it may take several games before he realizes it.
I am not drafting Gordon in any league format until he's in camp. He might present a bargain once he falls to a specific round but his injury history in contrast to Elliott's also means I'm more concerned about Gordon not being ready to resume play if he returns to the field later in the year.
Gordon may be a better citizen and a nicer guy than what we've seen with Elliott, but Elliott is a great running back and Gordon is good back who is not quite good enough and doesn't want to believe anything different. Forget that.
Sigmund Bloom
Melvin Gordon seems to have a lot more will to take this into the season, and the Chargers have zero reasons to give in to his demands because how well they did without him last year. This one will come down to Gordon's willingness to take the new deal or play under his fifth-year option and hope to score the contract he wants in free agency this year. He'll either miss zero games or something close to the max he can miss and not have to just play under the fifth-year option again next year because his contract "tolled", ie he did not play enough games to move it forward. His ADP falling to the third reflects these possibilities well, especially considering that he wasn't there for us in the fantasy playoffs two of the last three years.
Elliott's situation is a little different because the Cowboys seem more open to paying him what he wants, they don't have experience without him that shows he isn't as crucial to team success, and the tone around the coverage has been mostly positive. He is more likely to sign before the season opens and miss no games, with a slightly higher injury risk after missing camp and the preseason. I've moved him to the bottom of the top four running back tier and top four overall to reflect the risk, but not lower than that.
If you are in a high-stakes or best-ball contest where having the best lineup in Weeks 14-16 of hundreds or thousands of teams, not just one league is key, then drafting Elliott and Gordon could be a winning strategy.
One last note, Dan Graziano of ESPN, who has been covering the league for a long time, weighed in on these situations and differentiated them from LeVeon Bell's which likely has us overcautious in fantasy analysis circles:
I think Elliott ends up with a new contract from the Cowboys that makes him the league's highest-paid running back and he plays for them in Week 1, because Dallas can't afford to start the season without him.
I think Gordon gives in and signs with the Chargers for something around $10 million a year, because he really has no leverage.
I doubt either of them misses a regular-season game, though if you asked me which one is more likely to do so, I'd pick Gordon.
