This group doesn't appear to be as crowded as most backfields as only Lamar Miller and DOnta Foreman are on most fantasy players' radar. It seems like we've been waiting forever for Foreman to assume the lead back role, but his injuries and Miller's play have kept that from happening. Will we see Miller stay on top, or is this finally Foreman's season? Or is there another back on the roster who could surprise?
Jeff Haseley
Lamar Miller may be the most consistently good, but not great, running back in the league. He has only missed two games since 2013 and has four top-20 finishes in the last five years. His touchdown totals over the last five years have been 9, 10, 6, 6, 6. He has been a consistent contributor for Houston averaging 238 carries, 31 receptions, and six touchdowns per year since joining the team in 2016. His main competition is DOnta Foreman, who suffered a torn Achilles in Week 11 of 2017. There's a negative stigma of running backs struggling to return to form after suffering this injury. There's a very short list of backs who have found success following an Achilles tear. Could Foreman be the one who defies the odds? It's possible, but my gut says Miller will once again do just enough to be relevant, but not elite.
Jason Wood
Foreman was a third-round pick in 2017 before tearing his Achilles and showed well prior to the injury. It's not unrealistic to think he can be effective this season, more than 18 months removed from his injury, but it's hardly a foregone conclusion. On the other hand, while Lamar Miller isn't the most exciting option in fantasy circles, he's been a model of consistency. Miller has at least 1,100 yards and six touchdowns every season as a Texan.
It's clear the answer to that last question is...
...Karan Higdon.
Phil Alexander
I can't bring myself to do Lamar Miller to my fantasy teams. Fantasy football is supposed to be fun and Miller is as bland as an unsalted rice cake. There's something to be said for the predictability Jason mentioned, especially if Miller's ADP continues to hover in low-end RB3 territory. Personally though, once I'm out of the first five rounds, I'm shooting for the moon and prefer running backs with unknown upside like Miles Sanders and Rashaad Penny.
Foreman has some appeal in the double-digit rounds. He only made it back for one game last season but he received at least 10 carries in five of 10 games played as a rookie in 2017 and may have been in the midst of usurping Miller in the game he ruptured his Achilles. Reports from OTAs have him light-years ahead of where he was last year in his recovery, which is certainly a positive sign.
With Deshaun Watson routinely coming off the board as the QB2, it's clear fantasy gamers are expecting Houston to at least remain a top-12 scoring offense. Working under that assumption, the case can be made both Miller (no matter how yawn-inducing) and Foreman are currently under-valued. Taking either of them at their current ADPs could pay off, especially if one gets hurt or runs away with the job.
Andy Hicks
Lamar Miller continues to be one of the least inspiring starting running backs in the NFL. Somehow Houston is happy with his role and continues to avoid giving him serious competition. This seems an odd choice. With D’Onta Forman the main rival for touches, Miller should still get the majority of the carries. And do nothing for his fantasy managers.
Foreman looked like a career backup before he tore his Achilles, which means as a combination I don’t fancy his chances of breaking out in 2019. While I’d like to think one of the other backs fighting for a roster spot can make an impact, first of all, we have to see who survives to make the roster and secondly counting on one of these guys is like betting on longshots at the racetrack. It does happen, but it’s a poor investment strategy. So until otherwise, Lamar Miller will continue to be as Phil described that bland unsalted rice cake.
Chad Parsons
DOnta Foreman was charging towards the lead role late in 2017 when his Achilles injury changed everything for his outlook. Lamar Miller is not a flashy upside starter, but is solid and still in the role. The news is positive for Foreman this offseason, but Achilles and running backs have not mixed well historically which makes Foreman a wild card to return to his 2017 challenger role. I like Miller more in the veteran bridge mold for dynasty leagues with rising young backs around him on a dynasty roster to eventually pass him in utility. In redraft, I would take a bigger swing at upside, even with a current backup on another NFL depth chart who could hit big via injury. Foreman fits in the upside camp of fantasy running back bets, but with his own uncertainty, it is more cloudy than other primary backup types.
Will Grant
I think there's good value in the Houston backfield right now - since I'm seeing people shy away from both Lamar Miller and DOnta Foreman due to injury concerns. The key will be which guy you want to 'bet' on or giving up a draft spot to draft them both.
By all accounts, Foreman is fully recovered from his Achilles tear in 2017, and he's young enough to beat the odds and be able to come back. If he does, I think he could press Miller into a full committee approach.
That being said, Miller's still the feature back and his consistent performance puts him in the solid backup category - 1000+ yards from scrimmage - 6 touchdowns. A flex/spot starter in most 12 team leagues.
In a best-ball format, I've thrown a couple late picks at Foreman - in case he comes on strong and challenges for the starting role.
Bob Henry
I'm passing on this situation with the possible caveat that Miller slides and I could snare him as an RB4. That would mean I take a running-back-heavy approach, Miller slides and I see some meager value in his low upside, but consistent production as a crutch for the RB4 roster spot.
Usually, I'm not taking that approach, though and I would more likely start swinging for higher upside backs who haven't shown their full potential yet or wait even further to take a shot on Foreman. Even then, while I liked Foreman plenty out of college, I'm not one to bet on his upside considering that history is not on his side coming back from an Achilles tendon injury as a running back.
In dynasty formats, I may take a swing and hold onto Damarea Crockett to see how this plays out.
