Please note that the author understands that in any situation involving these types of allegations it can appear to be insensitive to discuss fantasy football when such serious issues are in play. Please don’t mistake the discussion of the implications for your fantasy teams as a lack of attention to the real human costs of what is involved in these cases. You are here for fantasy football content, so that’s where this article will focus.
It’s hard to believe, but it’s only been six days since a federal suit was filed against New England Patriots wide receiver Antonio Brown. In that time, controversy has continued to swirl around Brown as he prepared for, and played in, his first game with his new team.
In particular, an article from Sports Illustrated’s Robert Klemko has brought to light a pattern of conduct that stretches back several years for Brown. The revelations have cast Brown in an even more unfavorable light and have again changed the playing field for him, the NFL, the Patriots, and fantasy football owners. You can find all the details of Klemko’s report here.
In part, Klemko highlights the following:
- New sexual misconduct allegations
- Three domestic disturbance calls in four years with girlfriend Chelsie Kyriss
- Domestic abuse allegations from Wiltrice Jackson, the mother of one of Brown’s children, in January of this year
- A lawsuit filed against Brown for throwing furniture off an 11th-floor balcony almost striking a 22-month-old child
- Repeatedly failing to pay those who provided him goods and/or services by manufacturing conflict in the relationship
Additionally, since the lawsuit was filed, Patriots owner Bob Kraft let it be known (credit: Ian Rapoport) that he was unhappy with the fact that the Patriots were not made aware of the current allegations against Brown before he signed the contract. According to Rapoport, someone close to the situation felt that Kraft would *not* have approved of the signing had he known.
Also, as noted in the article from last week, the NFL is going to have access to a lot of information in this particular case that isn’t always available in these situations. They are meeting almost immediately with Brown’s accuser, Britney Taylor, and she is likely to provide details to the league that can dramatically impact the case. The investigators will have a chance to talk with her and judge for themselves if she is presenting a viable case, and whether she seems trustworthy as well. Keep in mind that the league has also expressed a desire to move quickly in the investigation and come to a conclusion in short order. These are massively important moments for the ultimate disposition of the football side of things for Brown, and that is what will be explored below.
Here is why the situation has changed materially from last week.
The New England Patriots
The team was quick to issue a statement last week indicating that they would take no action on the case until the league had concluded their investigation. But in the intervening time period, they let it leak that their owner is not happy with the situation Brown finds himself in. This is almost certainly a calculated move by the team. The Patriots are not a “loose lips” organization where things routinely leak. They are doing their best at this point to distance themselves from the allegations while still keeping Brown on the team. They are executing a perfect two-step in which they can have their feet on both sides of the equation so they can react to whatever comes from the league, or if more allegations surface in the coming days and weeks.
This is not a criticism of the move from New England, rather it is acknowledging that the Patriots have made (not surprisingly) a shrewd play to allow themselves maximum maneuverability should things unravel. However, this is a BIG development for this case. Their previous position was vintage Patriots: let the process play out, see what the league does, don’t make a quick reaction. Now, instead, they are showing that the meter has continued to move against Brown and they are starting to feel some pressure. The Sports Illustrated story will not help this fact.
Two other pieces of the equation fell into place this past week as well. The team worked Brown into their game plan for their Week 2 game. They pushed the ball to him early and often and he finished the game with four catches before halftime, along with a carry for 5 yards as well. He saw 4 more targets in the third quarter before coming off the field late in the game in a blowout win. Nevertheless, he led the team with 8 targets in his first game action with the team even though his snap share was just 33% (24 snaps).
The second thing that happened was just a small thing, but noteworthy. Following the Patriots’ win, Brown was not available in the locker room per league policy, and all of his stuff was removed from his locker including the nameplate. While not a monumental move, it shows that the Patriots are trying to manage the situation, keep Brown out of the limelight, and keep their star receiver from answering unscripted questions from the media.
In the end, the biggest thing to take away here is that the pressure is building. The Patriots are feeling that pressure. They are still the Patriots, however, and that means they are keeping Brown on the team for the immediate future. To be clear, at the current moment it does *not* look as though the Patriots will act without seeing something from the league first. But the landscape has most definitely shifted. If there are more allegations, the league finds damning information, or the pressure from the fanbase and social media continues to build, the team has given themselves an out and could easily take it.
The NFL
Predicting what the league will do is not an easy business. Roger Goodell has been, at best, inconsistent in his enforcement of punishments for off-the-field behavior since the enactment of the last Collective Bargaining Agreement. As noted previously, there were two major “X-factors” which would likely be tipping points in whether or not Brown ended up being disciplined by the league. The first was the existence (or lack) of criminal charges stemming from the incident. The second was the league’s desire as to the speed of the case. Either one of these would render any slow tracked civil case moot and thus force the issue this year instead of in the offseason.
As to the first point, after some initial confusion, the District Attorney in Pittsburgh has confirmed that there are no plans to investigate Brown regarding the civil allegations. Additionally, nothing has come from any other jurisdiction indicating that an investigation is underway. It appears that Brown is safe from criminal charges at this time.
As to the second point, there is now more clarification here and it isn’t good for Brown. The league has stated that they want the investigation to proceed quickly. This is a huge problem for Brown. The league is, like the Patriots, not impervious to the groundswell that is coming from things like the recent SI report referenced above. The season is young, but the headlines are continuing to be dominated by Brown’s issues. If there is anything that is certain in this equation, it is that the league will act in their own interests here. They definitely don’t want this season to be defined by a months-long debate, investigation, and unveiling of every crumb of information. That is exactly what is happening now, and exactly what the league doesn’t want. They’ve confirmed this by moving quickly to speak with Ms. Taylor, and by making it public that they are moving fast.
The settlement talks that Brown and Taylor have engaged in are also a factor in this equation. Sports Illustrated’s Michael McCann recapped the legal situation and revealed the fact that Brown and Taylor had engaged in some settlement talks before the suit was filed, and also that they had engaged in more settlement talks prior to Taylor’s meeting with the NFL. The rundown from McCann can be found here.
The takeaway for fantasy owners is that this situation may have now reached the point of no return. If Taylor were going to clam up and not talk to the NFL it likely would have had to come about as a result of the negotiations before she met with the league. That didn’t happen. Almost definitely any settlement would have come with some kind of agreement by the parties not to reveal details of the settlement or it would nullify the pact. Again, this didn’t happen, and Taylor was free to talk to the league to give them any information in her possession.
The serious nature of the allegations against Brown means that if the league sees a credible witness in front of them and does not hear something equally credible from Brown it is likely that he’ll be suspended by the league. There is a very real danger for the league in suspending a player just based on allegations in a civil suit and no criminal charges. But it seems that the situation has moved past that basic starting point. The new SI article about his history of conduct, the groundswell from these revelations, the cooperation of the victim, and the gravity of the allegations is a powerful combination that the league may not be able to withstand.
Fantasy Implications
Unfortunately for fantasy owners, none of these developments have been positive for Brown’s chances of seeing the end of the year playing football. The only slightly positive thing to happen was for Brown to hear that he was not under criminal investigation. Otherwise, the playing field has tilted noticeably against him.
It was advised in the last column to hold Brown and hope that he could finish the year on the field for the Patriots. Trading him would have been very tough without him having played a down, and there was no fast-track investigation from the league that would be cause for alarm. As discussed, this is no longer true.
In Week 2, Brown looked every bit as good as he was when last on the field in 2018. He saw a team-leading eight targets and scored 16.1 PPR points in his first game with Tom Brady. Use this information and flip Brown immediately. If your league mates are coming to you looking to score Brown on the cheap it’s not a bad idea to consider any decent offer. Although Taylor’s meeting with the league has already happened as of the penning of this article, it would be unusual for the league to meet with Taylor, give Brown a chance to respond, and make a decision all before Week 3. Use this to your benefit as well. If you can’t move Brown before Week 3, then let him have another nice game in Week 3 and try again.
If there is one thing that can be counted on in this case, it is that things will shift from day to day, and even hour to hour. But right now, the pressure is on the league and the team, and things are much bleaker for Brown than they were before. It seems that the only way Brown sees the field for the rest of the year is if Taylor is not credible, or Brown holds a smoking gun in the way of a recording or written word from Taylor that destroys her case. Otherwise, it would be very hard for the league to hear from this victim, believe her case, and then simply shrug their shoulders while the shield, and the 2019 season, continues to be dominated by speculation and the civil discovery process.
In my opinion, the best play right now is to try and move on from Brown if you can get a top-50 player in return. It seems to me right now that there is a good chance that Brown doesn’t finish the season on the football field. Even more concerning is that it’s possible Brown doesn’t make it to the end of the month on the field. Be deliberate and judicious with your Brown shares, but be quick, things are closing in around Brown and his chances to finish out the year are dwindling.
